Back in their earliest iteration, bowl games were designed to be exhibitions celebrating an excellent season. The results didn't count in the final polls until the 1960s, and the stats from the games didn't count until the 2000s.
In a way, then, this recent trend of opt-outs and bowl oddities hasn't necessarily created a shift, but a shift back. With important players leaving to prepare for the NFL draft and loads more disappearing into the transfer portal, the teams we watch during bowl season are rather different from the ones wearing the same helmets in the regular season. Does that affect the meaning of the games? Maybe, but hey, these games are just celebrations of a season well done, right?
We do know one thing we'll get from bowl season: college football! The final 40-ish games of the 2022 campaign will unfold over the next few weeks, and then that's it until late August. It's time to prepare as well as possible for what we're about to see. Here are 11 questions for bowl season, aka the most ... wonderful tiiiiiime ... of the yeeeeeeear ...
Who shows up?
On average, about 40% of bowl games finish with scoring margins more than 14 points away from the spread, more than the 35% or so that the regular season tends to produce. Last year, Maryland beat Virginia Tech by 44 points as a 4.5-point favorite, and Texas Tech beat Mississippi State by 27 as a 10-point underdog. Of the 42 bowls on the docket, including the two CFP semifinals, about 17 of them or so will feature wacky results, and a few will make no sense whatsoever. Your standing in your bowl pool will depend on you nailing at least a couple of un-nailable results.
Which are the most likely close games?
Of these 42 bowls, SP+ projects only three to have a scoring margin of more than two touchdowns, and it projects 32 within eight points and 11 within three. Acknowledging that a few unexpected blowouts are coming our way, if you're looking for wild finishes and tight contests, this is the list to start with.
Dec. 16: Duluth Trading Cure Bowl: No. 24 Troy vs. No. 25 UTSA (SP+ projection: Troy by 1.3)
Dec. 20: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. San Jose State (SJSU by 2.8)
Dec. 20: RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo (Liberty by 2.0)
Dec. 23: Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston (Houston by 2.4)
Dec. 23: Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Missouri (Wake Forest by 0.01!)
Dec. 24: EasyPost Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State (SDSU by 2.4)
Dec. 27: TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs. East Carolina (ECU by 2.6)
Dec. 29: Cheez-It Bowl: No. 13 Florida State vs. Oklahoma (Oklahoma by 2.3)
Dec. 31: TransPerfect Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky (Kentucky by 0.4)
Jan. 2: ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 22 Mississippi State vs. Illinois (Illinois by 0.5)
Jan. 2: Rose Bowl Game: No. 8 Utah vs. No. 11 Penn State (Penn State by 1.1)
That's right, only 1/100th of a point separates Wake Forest and Missouri in Tampa. It appears Wake has been hit less hard by opt-outs and transfers, but Mizzou finished the season in much better form, winning four of six and finding a late extra gear on offense.
Do you like popcorn games?
We all have our own aesthetic preferences, but sometimes you just want a points festival, you know? A 2011 Alamo Bowl, or a 2014 Bahamas Bowl, or a 2017 Belk Bowl, or a 2021 Music City Bowl. We never quite know where the truly wild games are going to come from, but let's start with this list. Here are the five games with the highest projected scores, per SP+:
Dec. 17: New Mexico Bowl (projected score: SMU 41.6, BYU 35.4)
Dec. 27: SERVPRO First Responder Bowl (projected score: Memphis 44.2, Utah State 24.3)
Dec. 28: AutoZone Liberty Bowl (projected score: Arkansas 40.2, Kansas 30.9)
Dec. 28: San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl (projected score: Oregon 44.0, North Carolina 30.1)
Dec. 30: Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl (projected score: UCLA 36.6, Pitt 30.1)
The New Mexico Bowl's points potential could depend quite a bit on the health of BYU quarterback Jaren Hall, who's listed as questionable. (SP+ projections are never designed to take injuries or opt-outs into account.) But apparently the days after Christmas could be rather pointsy.
I have a lot of hope for Kansas-Arkansas in particular. Memphis is a drivable distance for both fan bases (especially Arkansas'), and Kansas should be awfully excited to play in its first bowl in ages. Plus, both defenses stunk this year! Quarterbacks Jalon Daniels (Kansas) and KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) could have quite a bit of fun. We could, too.
Do you like defense?
Here's the same list, but in reverse. With 43 bowls, we should see and embrace plenty of stylistic contrasts, so here are the five most likely points-optional games on the board.
Dec. 16: HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl (projected score: UAB 26.1, Miami (Ohio) 14.1)
Dec. 19: Myrtle Beach Bowl (projected score: Marshall 25.4, UConn 8.3)
Dec. 29: Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl (projected score: Minnesota 27.6, Syracuse 14.0)
Dec. 31: TransPerfect Music City Bowl (projected score: Kentucky 13.2, Iowa 12.8)
Jan. 2: ReliaQuest Bowl (projected score: Illinois 20.0, Mississippi State 19.5)
There is, of course, one projection that stands out from all of them. Kentucky-Iowa feels like the most perfectly designed rock fight in the history of rock fights. These teams finished the regular season ranking 86th (UK) and 127th (Iowa) in points scored per possession and fifth (Iowa) and 26th (UK) in points allowed per possession. Neither team's starting quarterback -- UK's Will Levis or Iowa's Spencer Petras -- is playing. Iowa backup quarterback Alex Padilla is in the portal, and quite a few of the teams' better skill-corps players are out, too. This game was projected to have about 26 total points with those guys!
Honestly? It almost feels too perfect. We're all making jokes about a 3-2 final score and whatnot, and instead a bunch of backups are going to romp all over the field. Kentucky's going to field a permanent Wildcat quarterback who rushes for 331 yards, and some Iowa freshman walk-on quarterback's going to throw for 405 to other walk-ons. But hey, that would also be worth watching! We can't lose in Nashville.
Who's the happiest to be here?
For obvious reasons, the most memorable bowl performances often come from the teams that are really excited to be in said bowl, either because it's been a while or because they have something particularly impressive to play for. With that in mind, here are 10 teams that could be looking to take the most advantage of their opportunities.
No. 24 Troy and No. 25 UTSA (Cure Bowl, Dec. 16). The Trojans and Roadrunners are both looking for ranked finishes and a 12th win -- UTSA would tie 2021 as its best season ever, while this would be Troy's first 12-2 finish. It also projects as an almost perfect tossup.
UConn (Myrtle Beach Bowl vs. Marshall, Dec. 19). UConn has played in the postseason just once since 2010, and in the five seasons before Jim Mora took over, the Huskies went just 10-50. Reaching 6-6 this season was a damn miracle.
South Alabama (R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl vs. WKU, Dec. 21). The Sun Belt was maybe its best-ever self this season, and Kane Wommack's Jaguars were among its best teams. USA nearly beat UCLA on the way to a 10-2 finish. That's already a school record.
Bowling Green and New Mexico State (Quick Lane Bowl, Dec. 26). This is BGSU's first bowl since 2015 -- the Falcons averaged just 2.7 wins per season from 2016 to 2021 -- and it's NMSU's second since 1960. There have been so many incredible coaching jobs this season, but Jerry Kill getting the Aggies to 6-6 in his first year ranks among the best.
Duke (Military Bowl Presented by Peraton vs. UCF, Dec. 28). The sportsbooks listed the Blue Devils' preseason over/under win total at three in Mike Elko's first season in charge. They won eight. Most of their wins came against weak competition, but the weak schedule was factored into the three-win preseason total.
Kansas (Liberty Bowl vs. Arkansas, Dec. 28). Kansas! Bowling! The Jayhawks hadn't won even four games in a season since 2009! I profiled second-year head coach Lance Leipold as a master culture builder this past offseason, and I still somehow underestimated him.
No. 9 Kansas State (Allstate Sugar Bowl vs. No. 5 Alabama, Dec. 31). It's been 20 years since K-State's last top-10 finish, and all that stands in the way of the Wildcats and the top 10 is ... Bama. We'll come back to this one below.
No. 16 Tulane (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic vs. No. 10 USC, Jan. 2). It was the year of the amazing turnaround story. After a 2-10 campaign in 2021, Tulane won the AAC and will finish ranked for the first time in 24 years. The Green Wave are in their first major bowl since the 1940 Sugar Bowl. Fear the Angry Wave!
Who wins the Coach Swap Bowl?
Cincinnati vs. Louisville (Wasabi Fenway Bowl, Dec. 17)
Here's a strange history for you: This is the third year of the Fenway Bowl's existence, but the first time the game will actually be played. (Both of the past two games were canceled due to COVID.) Better yet, its debut will feature one team that just hired the other team's coach! Scott Satterfield led Louisville to a 5-2 finish after a 2-3 start, and he'll take over at Cincinnati this season.
Nothing says "bowl season" like two interim coaches matching wits in the shadow of the Green Monster.
Which Bama shows up?
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 9 Kansas State (Sugar Bowl, Dec. 31)
Nick Saban's Alabama is almost always playing for a national title when the postseason rolls around, and on the rare occasion that doesn't happen, we tend to get a wild result one way or the other.
2008: As 9.5-point favorites against Utah in the Sugar Bowl, the disappointed Crimson Tide lost by 14 points.
2010: As 10-point favorites against Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, the furious Tide dismantled Michigan State, 49-7.
2013: As 16-point favorites over Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl, Bama no-showed, losing 45-31 and almost single-handedly making OU quarterback Trevor Knight an offseason Heisman favorite in 2014.
2019: As 7.5-point favorites against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl, Alabama started poorly (down 13-7 early in the second quarter) but finished the game on a 28-3 run to win by 19.
The Tide have covered twice by an average of 22 points, and they've failed to cover twice by an average of 27. They're currently favored by 3 points over K-State, so I guess that means they'll either win by 25 or lose by 24?
Can South Carolina finish off a glorious Bowl Bump combination?
No. 19 South Carolina vs. No. 21 Notre Dame (Gator Bowl, Dec. 30)
The Bowl Bump was long a part of the general bowl proceedings -- a couple of teams would look absolutely spectacular in their postseason appearance, leading us to overhype them the following offseason. (A classic in the genre: West Virginia, which hung 70 on Clemson in the Orange Bowl to finish No. 17 in 2011 and leaped all the way to fifth in the 2012 preseason polls ... before going 7-6.)
It feels like we are a lot better at avoiding overreaction than we used to, but if South Carolina finishes 2022 with wins over Tennessee, Clemson and Notre Dame to finish 9-4, the pieces for spectacular overreaction are in place, at least if key players like quarterback Spencer Rattler return. Look good enough against the Fighting Irish, and even a Rattler departure might not be enough to keep the Gamecocks out of the preseason top 15-20. And hell, they might deserve it!
Who else is staring a 2023 hype train in the face?
I'll leave it to the eye of the beholder whether these teams would be getting hyped or overhyped, but a strong finish from these five schools could be the precursor for serious top-5 (or at least top-10) consideration in 2023.
No. 13 Florida State (Cheez-It Bowl vs. Oklahoma, Dec. 29). The Seminoles suffered a three-game losing streak to fall to 4-3 in the middle of Mike Norvell's third season, but a November surge has completely changed their trajectory. They won their last five games of the regular season by an average score of 44-15 and beat Florida for the first time since 2017. While their Orlando opponents, Brent Venables' Sooners, have plenty to play for in their own right (namely, a desperate search for traction after a listless 6-6 campaign), an FSU win could earn the Seminoles some "ACC favorites?" hype heading into 2023.
The Tennessee-Clemson winner (Capital One Orange Bowl, Dec. 30). There's probably space for both teams in the top 10, but the Orange Bowl winner could start even higher. If Clemson freshman Cade Klubnik looks as good against the No. 6 Vols as he did in the ACC championship, there's not much standing in the way of the No. 7 Tigers making another CFP run in 2023. If Joe Milton, a potential 2023 starter filling in for the injured and departing Hendon Hooker, can torch the Tigers' defense, the offseason Tennessee hype is going to grow awfully loud.
No. 10 USC (Cotton Bowl vs. No. 16 Tulane, Jan. 2). The Trojans came within a game of the CFP this season without the benefit of either a competent defense (113th in points allowed per drive, 126th in yards allowed per drive) or special teams unit (118th in special teams SP+). That's how good Heisman-winning quarterback Caleb Williams & Co. were. Williams' supporting cast will change a bit, but the offense will dominate again. If the defense reaches a top-50 level, USC will have an excellent shot at a CFP bid.
No. 11 Penn State (Rose Bowl vs. No. 8 Utah, Jan. 2). Nobody stands to gain more from the CFP's impending 2024 expansion than James Franklin's Nittany Lions, who are stuck in a division with playoff teams Michigan and Ohio State but went unbeaten against everyone else in 2022. They might not have to wait until 2024 to make some playoff noise, however. With blue-chip sophomore-to-be Drew Allar taking over at QB next season and this year's freshman running backs already wrecking shop, I would be shocked if PSU doesn't start 2023 in the top 10 or higher.
No. 17 LSU (Citrus Bowl vs. Purdue, Jan. 2). Late-season losses to Texas A&M and Georgia dampened the mood and momentum a bit in Baton Rouge, but a win in Orlando would still give the Tigers 10 wins (combined record in 2020-21: 11-12) and a potential top-15 finish. This year was the first step toward a larger rebound under Brian Kelly, and they'll have solid odds of both starting and finishing 2023 even higher.
Who gets the best of an old rival?
Aside from the "Who's happy to be there?" factor, there are two things I look for in bowl matchups: either historic rivalries or games we've never seen before. This bowl season is giving us far more of the latter, but we've got a few of the former, too.
Duke's Mayo Bowl, Dec. 30: Former ACC rivals Maryland and NC State will meet for the 71st time.
Fenway Bowl, Dec. 17: Longtime regional independents and onetime rivals in both Conference USA and the Big East, Cincinnati and Louisville will meet for the 54th time.
Capital One Orange Bowl, Dec. 30: Tennessee and Clemson will meet for the 20th time, though most of those battles happened a century ago -- they've played only three times since the end of World War II.
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, Dec. 30: Surprisingly, UCLA and Pitt will meet for the 15th time. They played almost annually between 1958 and 1972, with the Bruins winning nine of 14 battles.
LendingTree Bowl, Dec. 17: This is the 13th time Rice and Southern Miss will play each other, the 11th time in the past 12 years. (USM just left Rice's Conference USA for the Sun Belt.)
Who takes an all-time 1-0 series lead?
This is a big year for "These two teams have never been on the same field together" bowls. One might expect that for some Group of 5 teams that haven't been at the FBS level very long -- hello, Georgia Southern-Buffalo (Camellia Bowl) or UTSA-Troy -- but we've actually got a pretty big batch of first-time power-conference matchups, too. And this list doesn't even include the TCU-Michigan CFP semifinal or the first Kansas-Arkansas game since 1906!
Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 17: Florida vs. Oregon State
Gasparilla Bowl, Dec. 23: Wake Forest vs. Missouri
Guaranteed Rate Bowl, Dec. 27: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State
Holiday Bowl, Dec. 28: Oregon vs. North Carolina
Sugar Bowl, Dec. 31: Alabama vs. Kansas State
Citrus Bowl, Jan. 2: LSU vs. Purdue
Rose Bowl, Jan. 2: Penn State vs. Utah
When you're watching Wake-Mizzou to see how Wake can win by 0.01, you'll also be watching an epic battle for all-time bragging rights! In a game named after a festival of fake pirates, no less! Bowl season!