When November began, Ohio State, Tennessee and Clemson were all unbeaten. Oklahoma State and Wake Forest were in the AP top 10, and Syracuse was 16th. Per SP+, Ohio State had a 65% chance of winning the Big Ten East, and Alabama was at 58% to win the SEC West.
As it always does, November scrambled our expectations. Of the teams that began the month in the AP top 25, only four skated through unbeaten, and those four -- Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC -- are all on the cusp of CFP bids. UGA and Michigan will likely get in regardless of what happens on championship weekend, but we will pass out two more CFP bids and 10 FBS conference trophies. The weekend will also give us a couple of makeup games (including the first-ever Hastily Scheduled Valparaiso-New Mexico State Game!), the SWAC championship and what is sure to be a huge load of wonderful nonsense in the small-school playoffs.
Here's everything you need to follow during a unique and consequential championship weekend.
What's changed since USC-Utah I and TCU-KSU I?
With USC and potentially TCU needing to win to secure playoff bids, this week's two most important title games are rematches of two of the most enjoyable games of the regular season: Utah 43, USC 42 and TCU 38, Kansas State 28.
Who were the key players in those October outcomes? More importantly, what's changed since those games? The answers will determine who makes the CFP. Let's take a look.
Big 12 championship: No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, ABC/ESPN App)
It seems almost certain that USC's CFP hopes hinge on winning in Vegas on Friday night. If the Trojans fall to Utah again, 11-1 Ohio State, watching from its proverbial sofa in Columbus, will be in great shape to snare a bid.
The picture for TCU is a bit blurrier. We don't know exactly where the line is -- it will be determined in part by whether USC wins -- but if the Horned Frogs suffer their first loss of the season in a tight game in Jerry World on Saturday afternoon, there's a solid chance they still get in the playoff. If they get blown out, however, that might be a different story.
The last time these teams played, on Oct. 22 in Fort Worth, it looked like it might be a Kansas State blowout for quite a while.
The Wildcats' plans went awry almost immediately. Quarterback Adrian Martinez was injured on the first drive, and after a 65-yard touchdown pass from Max Duggan to Derius Davis, Will Howard came on for his first snaps of the season already down 7-0. Howard had played parts of each of the past two seasons, but the plan was to redshirt him while Martinez manned the battle stations in 2022.
Howard came out firing. A TCU defense prepared for Martinez's running and conservative passing was caught flat-footed as Howard completed passes of 28, 28, 25, 37, 26 and 20 yards and led the Wildcats to four straight touchdowns. Deuce Vaughn's 47-yard sprint up the middle made it 28-10 KSU midway through the second quarter. The Horned Frogs' unbeaten run was about to come to an end at unexpected hands.
At that point, Howard was 8-for-10 for 185 yards. He went just 5-for-10 for 40 from there. He got dinged up in the second half and threw two picks, and KSU's Chris Tennant missed a pair of longish field goals as the Wildcats went scoreless for the final 2½ quarters. As has been customary in 2022, TCU's relentless offense kept attacking and finally broke through, scoring touchdowns on four of five drives. Quentin Johnson's 55-yard catch gave the Frogs the lead, and Kendre Miller's 9-yard run made it a 38-28 final.
TCU's run has continued. The Hypnotoads pulled similar "absorb blows, then ease ahead" routines against West Virginia and Texas Tech, and gutted out tight road slugfests against Texas and Baylor. Last week against Iowa State, they finally made life easy on themselves, surging early and blowing out the disappointing Cyclones 62-14.
By this point, the Frogs know that if they keep throwing haymakers, they're eventually going to land some. They average 6.4 gains of 20-plus yards per game (seventh in FBS) and 3.3 gains of 30-plus (second). They've enjoyed a flurry of three touchdowns in consecutive drives, or at least three TDs in four drives, in 10 of 12 games.
The Big 12's ridiculous depth means they have beaten five teams ranked 31st or better in SP+ and rank first in ESPN's strength of record measure. But now comes maybe their toughest test.
Kansas State was already doing well the first time these teams played. Chris Klieman's Wildcats were 5-1 and 17th in SP+ at the time, with only an upset loss to Tulane marring a strong résumé. Martinez was playing pretty well -- he remains 29th in Total QBR -- and his legs were key to KSU's 41-34 win at Oklahoma.
Howard's success, combined with another Martinez injury, made redshirting Howard impossible. The Wildcats lost 34-27 to Texas with Martinez in the lineup, but in four other games with Howard -- against Oklahoma State, Baylor, West Virginia and Kansas -- they averaged 6.2 yards per play and won by an average score of 44-15. (TCU beat those same four opponents by an average of 38-33.) In going from Martinez to Howard, K-State has sacrificed extra rushing prowess for downfield passing. The receiver trio of Malik Knowles, Phillip Brooks and Kade Warner is averaging an extra 0.5 yards per catch and 20 yards per game with Howard, and tight ends Ben Sinnott and Sammy Wheeler have become major weapons, averaging 19 yards per catch with five touchdowns.
The first game between TCU and KSU was like two blowouts in one, which is almost odd considering how similar the teams are at this point. Both are solid from an efficiency standpoint on both offense and defense. Both offenses are among the most explosive in the country. Both teams dominate field position. Both defenses struggle in the red zone.
There are differences, of course -- TCU has the more reliable place-kicker, K-State's return game is terrifying, the Wildcats run the ball more while TCU mixes in more horizontal passing, and K-State's pass rush is better -- but this is a remarkably even game on paper. A best-of-seven series would likely go the full seven. But the second game is all that matters, and this one could go in too many directions to count.
Current line: TCU -2.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: TCU by 2.9 | FPI projection: TCU by 1.3
What does a huge title game upset look like?
We are slowly moving toward a divisionless universe in college football. The Pac-12 ditched its North/South structure this season, which means that we're now down to six conferences with divisions. More will follow soon, including the ACC next year (RIP, Coastal Division).
The benefits to such an approach are pretty clear. For one thing, it's harder to clinch a spot in the conference title game weeks in advance, as Georgia and LSU in the SEC and Clemson and North Carolina in the ACC did this season. Races are more likely to go down to the wire, like the Pac-12's -- we didn't know who was in the Pac-12 championship game until the final game of Rivalry Week ended.
There's another benefit to ditching divisions, though: The title game matchups end up better. Using SP+ rankings within each conference, we see that the Pac-12 championship pits the conference's No. 1 team against its No. 2 team, while the Big 12 (No. 1 vs. No. 3), Conference USA (No. 1 vs. No. 4) and AAC (No. 2 vs. No. 3) all came pretty close.
For conferences with divisions, it was a crapshoot. We did get a No. 1 vs. No. 2 game in the MAC and a No. 1 vs. No. 3 in the Mountain West, but it's No. 1 vs. No. 5 in the SEC, No. 1 vs. No. 6 in the ACC, No. 2 vs. No. 7 in the Sun Belt and No. 1 vs. No. 9 in the Big Ten. For conferences with divisions, the average spread for title games this week is 9.1 points; for conferences without divisions, it's 4.4.
One thing ditching divisions also does, however, is deprive us of the romantic notion of big upsets in title games. The title game era began with some doozies in the Big 12 -- Texas over Nebraska in 1996, Texas A&M over Kansas State in 1998, Kansas State over Oklahoma in 2003 -- but those appear to be bygone days. Only one double-digit underdog has won a conference championship in the past decade (Ball State over Buffalo in the MAC in 2020), and it hasn't happened in a power conference since 2005 (Florida State over Virginia Tech in the ACC).
Divisions aren't dead just yet, though. We've got a couple of major upset opportunities on Saturday. They might not impact the CFP race -- it's highly likely that both No. 1 Georgia and No. 2 Michigan are in regardless of Saturday's results -- but let's walk through the SEC and Big Ten championship games to see how a big upset could play out, just in case.
SEC championship: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU (Saturday, 4 p.m., CBS)
November indeed has a way of separating wheat from chaff. LSU was up to fifth in the CFP rankings last week, but the computers never really viewed Brian Kelly's Tigers as a playoff-caliber team. They peaked at 13th in SP+ and ninth in FPI. So fate struck, handing a banged-up LSU squad a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M in College Station. (Fate struck Clemson in a similar way against South Carolina.)
Injuries are dealing the Tigers a particularly difficult hand, as maybe LSU's most vital players when it comes to upsetting Georgia are both battling to play Saturday. Quarterback Jayden Daniels suffered an ankle sprain against A&M, while cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse missed the A&M game with concussion symptoms. Daniels has practiced this week, and Kelly said Thursday that he would play; Bernard-Converse's status remains questionable, but Kelly expressed optimism earlier in the week.
This is the best I could do to craft an upset script for the Tigers -- at least, one that goes beyond the typical "special teams and turnover disasters create something wild" script that applies to virtually any game.
1. LSU mans up. Beyond the general attention span issues that defending national champions often battle -- something Georgia was definitely dealing with during closer-than-expected games against Kent State and Missouri -- the closest thing the Dawgs have had to a weakness this season has come out wide. Sophomore Ladd McConkey is the only Georgia wide receiver to have caught even 25 passes this season; injuries and inexperience have rendered Georgia WRs inconsistent overall, and while quarterback Stetson Bennett has had plenty of excellent moments throwing to tight ends Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington and running back Kenny McIntosh, when your wideouts aren't thriving, you probably aren't making a ton of big plays. Georgia averages 2.2 gains of 30-plus yards per game, 50th in FBS, and has had only 10 gains of 40-plus all season (82nd).
Explosiveness has been an issue, but Georgia has remained extremely efficient, both because of Bennett's accuracy (and the quality of his tight ends) and because of how good he is against zone defenses. Georgia has faced less man defense than most -- 29% of its passes have come against man, sixth fewest in FBS -- and Bennett averages 9.7 yards per dropback against zone, fifth best.
Bennett averages only 6.7 yards per dropback against man, however, 51st overall. And when Bernard-Converse is healthy and available, LSU plays some of the better and more frequent man defense in the country. Even with all of Georgia's uniquely awesome weapons, the Dawgs can bog down if teams force their receivers to make plays. LSU's run defense is pretty average, but its pass rush has some bite on passing downs, and "Bennett gets pressured and has to throw the ball away (or into coverage) on third-and-7" could be a way LSU keeps Georgia off the scoreboard a few times.
2. Georgia settles for field goals. Red zone failures have been part of many upsets through the years, and Georgia leaves itself a bit vulnerable by being pretty average in this regard. Despite an ultra-efficient run game, the Dawgs score touchdowns on just 65% of red zone trips (48th in FBS), and LSU allows them on just 43% (seventh). LSU can bend quite a bit if it can avoid breaking here.
3. Jayden Daniels goes full Jayden Daniels. Daniels is not the best quarterback in the country, but he is unique. As I've written multiple times this season, any offense Daniels is in becomes the "Jayden Daniels offense" because of his unique and frequent scrambling ability. He has been excellent for a large portion of the season, completing 69% of his (mostly short) passes and rushing for 824 yards and 11 touchdowns. Teams can't get a good hit on him because of his slippery nature -- he's averaging 3.4 yards per carry after first contact. Trying to contain Daniels can fry your brain a bit. Just ask Alabama, which sacked him six times but also gave him 58 rushing yards on scrambles, including a 31-yarder on a key, late third-and-5.
If Daniels and Bernard-Converse are close to full strength and playing really well, LSU could make this one messy. But it will take some bounces and some heroics for the Tigers to take the Dawgs down.
Current line: Dawgs -17.5 (up from -17 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Dawgs by 19.1 | FPI projection: Dawgs by 13.5
Big Ten championship: No. 2 Michigan vs. Purdue (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox)
I'm not going to lie: Even acknowledging injuries, the fact that Georgia (-17.5) is favored by more than Michigan right now (-16.5) really confuses me. If SP+ and FPI were used to create lines, the SEC championship game would be listed at around Georgia -16.5, but the Big Ten game would be closer to Michigan -21. The Wolverines' offense has definitely been bitten hard by the injury bug of late, led of course by what turned out to be a season-ending knee injury suffered by running back Blake Corum two weeks ago. But they still have a star running back in Donovan Edwards, and they just nailed Ohio State for 530 yards and 45 points without Corum.
At 8-4 and 47th in SP+, Purdue is one of the worst teams to ever reach a power conference championship game. The Boilermakers lost to division rivals Iowa and Wisconsin by a combined 59-27, but went 4-1 in one-score finishes in the Big Ten to finish 6-3 in conference and eke out their first West title. It was a cool moment, and I'm happy that their fans got to experience it before the West Division likely disappears in the coming years. But it would take something massive for them to score an upset.
Luckily, no one does "massive" like Purdue.
The Boilermakers beat No. 2 Iowa, 24-7, as 11-point underdogs last season. They beat No. 2 Ohio State, 49-20, as 12.5-point underdogs in 2018. They beat No. 7 Ohio State as 13.5-point 'dogs in 2009, No. 4 Kansas State as 13-point 'dogs in 1998, and No. 12 Notre Dame as 19.5-point 'dogs in 1997. It's in Purdue's DNA to do randomly outlandish things to superior teams.
The Boilermakers will still probably lose big, mind you. But here's how another huge Purdue upset might take shape:
1. Aidan O'Connell remains upright. Michigan ranks seventh in the nation in passing downs sack rate, but Purdue ranks eighth in passing downs sack rate allowed. The Boilermakers have a uniquely frustrating offense to attack because of their quick-passing nature, and the trio of Charlie Jones, TJ Sheffield and tight end Payne Durham has combined for 82 third- and fourth-down receptions for 925 yards and five TDs. If they can frustrate Michigan's defense and keep moving the chains, deeper opportunities for both Jones and Sheffield could begin to open up down the line.
2. Purdue scores TDs, and Michigan kicks field goals. Again, this is a common upset theme, but it's a necessary one. Purdue's offense ranks 23rd in red zone touchdown rate, while Michigan's ranks 49th. Granted, the Michigan defense (ninth) ranks much better than Purdue's (66th), but this is something the Boilers have to exploit, and it wouldn't be the most outlandish thing in the world if they did it. Bruising Purdue back Devin Mockobee averages 2.9 yards per carry after contact and is an excellent mover of the first-down chains. He could come in handy here.
3. The turnover fairy favors the underdogs. Turnovers are indeed an upset constant, but I mention this here because the turnovers fairy has been awfully kind to Michigan and mean to Purdue. The Wolverines have recovered 57% of fumbles this season, and Purdue has recovered only 41%, and while Michigan's opponents have intercepted only three Wolverines passes this season, they've also broken up 33 -- the typical ratio of INTs-to-PBUs (about 1-to-4.75) suggests that Michigan's J.J. McCarthy should have thrown four or five more picks than he has. Regression to the mean can strike at any time, and if it does Saturday, Purdue's odds rise significantly.
Current line: Michigan -16.5 (up from -16 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 24.3 | FPI projection: Michigan by 17.8
My favorite bets
I stopped the bleeding last week! After a painful couple of weeks in the best bets department, I went 3-2 to inch back up to 55% overall (35-29-1) for the season.
With so few games on the docket this week, I didn't find five picks I really liked. But here are three.
Michigan (-16.5) vs. Purdue. Am I daring fate to do something off the wall in Indianapolis? Possibly! But I still really trust this Wolverines team to bring its A-game.
Purdue now has 17 wins against AP top 5 opponents as an unranked team. No other team has more than 11 such wins in the AP Poll Era (since 1936). pic.twitter.com/aA1rt4iVAD
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 6, 2021
Troy (-8.5) vs. Coastal Carolina. There's at least a slight chance that injured Coastal quarterback Grayson McCall returns, but it appears only slight. Troy hasn't lost since September, and without McCall the Chanticleers have underachieved SP+ projections by 8.0 points in a tight win over Southern Miss and by 36.9 points in a blowout loss to James Madison. SP+ says Troy by 10.0, and that's all I need to hear.
Boise State (-3) vs. Fresno State. Fresno State has averaged 39 points per game with five wins since quarterback Jake Haener returned from injury, and both of these teams appear to be the best versions of themselves at the moment. But I lean Boise because of the Broncos' defense, by far the best unit in this game. They are up to eighth in points allowed per drive and 27th in defensive SP+; that should make the difference.
Championship Weekend playlist
There obviously aren't many games left, but here's the rest of the FBS slate, for your information and entertainment needs.
Friday
Akron at Buffalo (1 p.m., ESPN+). The Blizzard Delay Game from a couple of weeks ago. Buffalo has combined a five-game win streak with a pair of three-game losing streaks this year and needs this one for bowl eligibility; Akron has quietly improved of late -- the Zips pounded Northern Illinois with backup quarterback Jeff Undercuffler Jr. last week -- but maybe not enough to snare this one. Current line: Buffalo -11 (down from -13.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buffalo by 16.7 | FPI projection: Buffalo by 14.5
Conference USA championship: North Texas at UTSA (7:30 p.m., CBSSN). UTSA has won nine in a row, including a 31-27 victory over North Texas in October that featured seven second-half lead changes. UNT has stumbled down the stretch, although UTSA nearly did last week against UTEP too. Current line: UTSA -8.5 (up from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UTSA by 11.2 | FPI projection: UTSA by 9.1
Early Saturday
MAC championship: Toledo vs. Ohio (noon, ESPN). Ohio has overachieved SP+ projections for eight straight games (and continued doing so last week after losing starting quarterback Nathan Rourke), while Toledo has underachieved for five straight, both with and without injured QB Dequan Finn. Finn could return Saturday -- is that enough to reverse the trend? Current line: Toledo -1.5 (down from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Toledo by 0.9 | FPI projection: Toledo by 1.5
Saturday afternoon
Sun Belt championship: Coastal Carolina at Troy (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Speaking of injured quarterbacks ... I would be shocked if Grayson McCall is actually able to play (or at least play well), but this one will be interesting if only to see if Troy can finish the job. The Trojans have ignited in Jon Sumrall's first season and, with the division title on the line, laid the hammer down late against Arkansas State last week. Current line: Troy -8.5 (down from -10 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Troy by 10.0 | FPI projection: Troy by 8.9
AAC championship: No. 22 UCF at No. 18 Tulane (4 p.m., ABC). UCF bolted to an early lead and won at Tulane a few weeks ago; since then, however, the Knights lost to Navy and nearly lost to South Florida while Tulane stomped SMU, won at Cincinnati and kept head coach Willie Fritz after advances from Georgia Tech. If trends are a thing, they favor the Green Wave. Current line: Tulane -4 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Tulane by 4.6 | FPI projection: Tulane by 3.2
Valparaiso at New Mexico State (4 p.m., FloFootball). NMSU blew out Liberty last week to get to 5-6, then got a waiver to schedule this game to replace an earlier cancellation and actually get its seniors a Senior Day. And with the cancellation, the Aggies also applied for and received a waiver from the NCAA to make them bowl eligible this week. They'll bowl for only the second time since 1960. Everything's coming up Aggies! SP+ projection: NMSU by 26.2 | FPI projection: NMSU by 28.7
Mountain West championship: Fresno State at Boise State (4 p.m., Fox). Fresno State has won seven in a row, and Boise State has won seven of eight since making an offensive coordinator and quarterback change back in September. The MWC has been a disappointment this season, but these teams are playing good ball. Current line: BSU -3 (down from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BSU by 5.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 6.9
Saturday evening
ACC championship: No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 23 North Carolina (8 p.m., ABC). One of the most anticlimactic conference title games in recent memory -- Clemson has lost two of four to fall out of CFP contention, while UNC has lost two in a row since clinching the Coastal Division. Both teams' quarterbacks were awful last week. This game is less about matchups and more about who rebounds to play well. Current line: Clemson -7.5 (down from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 9.9 | FPI projection: Clemson by 10.6
Smaller-school showcase
The smaller-school playoffs are in high gear, and there is so much to keep up with. Break that laptop out and keep tabs on some of these. You won't regret it.
Division II quarterfinals: No. 5 Ferris State at No. 1 Grand Valley State (1 p.m., FloFootball). One of the biggest rivalries in Division II produced one of the best regular-season games of the year -- a 22-21 road win for No. 2 GVSU over No. 1 FSU -- and now we get the rematch. Winner moves on to the semis and becomes the default national title favorite. SP+ projection: GVSU 26.6, Ferris State 24.6
Division III quarterfinals: Aurora at No. 12 Wartburg (1 p.m., local streaming). Division III is generally top heavy, but here comes a massive opportunity for two programs that have never reached the semifinals. Unbeaten Wartburg upset Saint John's (Minnesota) last weekend and is probably the better team here, but not by much. SP+ projection: Wartburg 32.5, Aurora 28.1
FCS round of 16: No. 17 Montana at No. 4 North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). NDSU hasn't quite played up to typical NDSU standards this season -- the Bison have lost twice ... twice!! -- but watch them catch fire and win the whole thing anyway. SP+ projection: NDSU 34.1, Montana 31.3
SWAC championship: Southern at No. 5 Jackson State (4 p.m., ESPN2). Bigger schools continue to sniff around and remind us that Deion Sanders might not be coaching in the HBCU universe much longer, so let's take a moment to admire the powerhouse that he has built at Jackson State in less than two years. Southern will have to pull a massive upset to keep the Tigers from their second straight SWAC title. SP+ projection: JSU 45.2, Southern 19.1
NAIA semifinals: No. 12 Keiser at No. 2 Grand View (Iowa) (1 p.m., local streaming). Like Division III, NAIA tends to be pretty top heavy, so when a team takes down two of the top four seeds -- as Doug Socha's Keiser Seahawks have -- it's a feat worth celebrating. Of course, they might have to beat two more to win the title. SP+ projection: Grand View 23.5, Keiser 16.5