Last Saturday night, Shane Beamer's South Carolina Gamecocks reminded us of something vital: We don't ever completely know what's about to happen.
Over the previous month, they had been held under 5 yards per play and 300 yards on three occasions and to 10 or fewer points twice. Well-touted transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler hadn't topped even 212 passing yards since Week 2.
Against Tennessee on Saturday, Rattler threw for 438 yards and six touchdowns. South Carolina scored touchdowns on nine of 10 possessions and cruised to a 63-38 win that upended the College Football Playoff race. There was no warning, no realistic way to know it was about to happen, but it happened.
Now comes Rivalry Week. We have nine conference title game bids and some of the sport's most celebrated rivalry trophies to hand out, and we have increasingly blurry CFP and Heisman races to figure out.
Here's everything you need to follow over Rivalry Week. Happy Thanksgiving. Let's get weird.
Now it's Ohio State's turn to prove it's learned the right lessons
No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (Saturday, noon, Fox)
As teams were headed to locker rooms at the half. @OhioStateFB @UMichFootball
— Kirk Herbstreit (@KirkHerbstreit) November 27, 2021
About to be an interesting 2nd H
@CollegeGameDay pic.twitter.com/knxp97O4Oq
In the delightful "The Hot Seat," a book about Michigan's 2021 rebound season, Slate's Ben Mathis-Lilley recalls the horror Michigan message boarders responded with when a 247Sports reporter wrote, "My gut tells me that the thing this offense is best at right now is when it's pounding the rock," in August.
After an excellent start to his tenure, head coach Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines had fallen to 2-4 in 2020, and he took a pay cut and hired some new assistants to keep his job and liven things up. But on the cusp of a vital season, fans were told the offense was going to be the same stale, run-heavy, retrograde attack.
That retrograde attack rushed for 297 yards and six touchdowns against Ohio State, ended a decadelong losing streak to the Buckeyes, ended a nearly two-decade Big Ten title drought and earned the Wolverines their first CFP appearance.
Fifty-two weeks later, the stakes are all the same -- the winner of The Game wins the Big Ten East and is virtually assured of a CFP bid -- but the shoe is on the other foot: It's Ohio State's turn to prove it has learned and adapted.
Generally speaking, two things tend to define the tenures of offense-minded head coaches: your quarterback and your defensive coordinator hire.
Can you find the gems you need to run the offense that got you hired, and can you find the proverbial "head coach of the defense" that allows you to focus on your strengths?
The former has not been a problem for Ryan Day at Ohio State. From Terrelle Pryor in the late-2000s to C.J. Stroud today, the Buckeyes have been blessed with high-end QBs for more than a decade. The latter, however, has indeed defined Day's four-year tenure in Columbus. Under co-coordinators Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison in 2019, the Buckeyes leaped from 59th to 12th in defensive SP+ and finished 13-1 with their highest SP+ ranking of the past 15 years (second). When Hafley took the Boston College head-coaching job, Day promoted DBs coach Kerry Coombs to DC, and Ohio State slipped to 38th in defensive SP+ in 2020, then 62nd last season. The four most physical teams on its 2021 schedule (Minnesota, Oregon, Michigan and Utah) combined to average 249 rushing yards and 38 points per game.
It was time to bring in coordinator No. 3: Jim Knowles, who had turned Oklahoma State's defense into a nasty, physical and nearly CFP-worthy unit.
Thus far, it has worked out fantastically well. Ohio State has allowed more than 21 points in just two games all season -- a pretty good combination with an offense that has scored under 43 just twice. The Buckeyes rank sixth in points allowed per drive and seventh in yards. Perhaps most importantly, they are eighth in rushing success rate allowed, too.
They haven't faced Michigan's attack yet, though. The Wolverines rank fifth in rushing success rate. Blake Corum has rushed for 1,457 yards (5.9 per carry) and 18 touchdowns. Backups Donovan Edwards and C.J. Stokes have added 739 (6.0) and five touchdowns. (Edwards is also fifth on the team in receiving yards.) The offensive line appears to be even stronger than it was last season, when it pushed the Buckeyes around so memorably.
For all of Ohio State's apparent defensive improvement, we've had to wait until this week to learn what we actually need to know.
Trends point in the Buckeyes' direction. For as strong as the Wolverines' offense was earlier in the season -- they hung 41 points and 418 rushing yards on an otherwise awesome Penn State defense in mid-October -- they have underachieved SP+ projections by at least eight points in three of their past four games, and now they're dealing with a couple of key injuries.
Edwards, such a delightful change-of-pace back, has missed most of the past two games because of a hand injury. Corum missed most of the back half of last week's game against Illinois because of a knee injury. Predictably, Harbaugh has been tight-lipped this week when it comes to updates on either one.
Even if Corum and/or Edwards are limited, the Buckeyes will still have to deal with the best offensive line they've faced all season. But obviously that would cap the Wolverines' upside and likely force the Michigan defense to make a handful of extra stops. That's a tricky proposition.
Perhaps no offense in the country feels as inevitable as Ohio State's.
Last week in College Park, a spirited Maryland defense held the Buckeyes to two scores in their first five drives and held a 13-10 halftime lead because of it. Ohio State ended up with 43 points and 401 yards.
Penn State held the Buckeyes to 13 points in eight drives and led 21-16 early in the fourth quarter. Ohio State ended up with 44 points and 452 yards.
Since an opening-week slog against Notre Dame, the Buckeyes have averaged 49 points per game. They've done this despite a barrage of key skill corps injuries. Star and preseason Biletnikoff Award favorite Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played in parts of only three games and caught just five passes, leaving a heavy load for sophomores Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. Star running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams have missed four games between them, plus parts of many others, and freshman Dallan Hayden has had to carry a much heavier load than expected (he has 46 carries in the past two games).
Of course, Harrison, Egbuka and Hayden are all former blue-chippers. Hayden has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over these past two games, and Harrison and Egbuka have combined for 1,951 receiving yards and 19 touchdowns. The Buckeyes remain loaded even without some of the nation's best playmakers, and Stroud remains a betting favorite to win the Heisman. While Northwestern did hold the Buckeyes to 21 in early November, the Wildcats got help from dreadful, rainy conditions. The forecast for this Saturday appears gray but mostly fine.
Michigan's defense is the best the Buckeyes have faced since Iowa's; the Wolverines are first in points per drive allowed, second in yards and fourth in defensive SP+. Despite losing their defensive coordinator and two first-round pass-rushers, they haven't missed a beat; only Maryland has topped even 17 points on them. They will fare better than most against Ohio State. But what does that mean at this point? Twenty-four points? Thirty-one? And if Corum isn't 100%, can the Wolverines match?
The key to this game might be the final 20 yards.
For as strong as Ohio State's defense has been this season, the Buckeyes still stink in the red zone. They rank 61st in red zone touchdown rate allowed and a shocking 124th in goal-to-go TD rate. This presents a clear opportunity for Michigan, but the Wolverines' offense ranks only 59th in the red zone and 45th in goal-to-go. Michigan place-kicker Jake Moody is incredible, but he has already been asked to attempt 30 field goals, 14 in the past four games. That's too many.
When Ohio State has the ball, it's elite-versus-elite in this regard: The Buckeyes rank second in red zone touchdown rate, while Michigan ranks 15th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. If Ohio State is pushing back on the line of scrimmage better than it did a year ago and is scoring touchdowns in the red zone, the paths to a Michigan victory disappear quickly.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -8.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 5.4 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 8.0
Horned Frogs, Trojans and the hardest part of the CFP journey
If Sonny Dykes' TCU Horned Frogs win two more games, they are in the CFP. If Lincoln Riley's USC Trojans do the same, their CFP odds are high, too. They have survived a number of tight tests on their way to a combined 21-1 record, and the thought of two explosive, entertaining-as-hell teams making CFP debuts this season sounds awfully fun.
Now comes the hardest part, however: actually winning the last two games. SP+ gives TCU only a 45% chance of beating both Iowa State and a Big 12 championship game opponent (either Kansas State or Texas), while USC's odds of beating both Notre Dame and either Oregon, Utah or Washington (probably Oregon) in the Pac-12 championship are only 36%. FPI is slightly more pessimistic for both: 33% for TCU, 32% for USC.
Iowa State at TCU (Saturday, 4 p.m., Fox)
A good statistician will tell you that "due" isn't really a thing. If you flip a coin and it lands on tails 16 times in a row, you're not "due" a heads -- the odds remain the same for every flip regardless of a streak.
I'm here to tell you that's bunk, and Iowa State is due a break.
The Cyclones rank 11th nationally in points allowed per drive and fifth in defensive SP+. They prevent big plays as well as anyone in the country with a maddening zone defense. Ends Will McDonald IV and MJ Anderson are excellent, especially on third downs, and linebacker O'Rien Vance is a wrecking ball against the run. This is the pinnacle of ISU's defensive ascent under coordinator Jon Heacock.
After five straight winning seasons, however, ISU has fallen to 4-7, and for two main reasons. First, its offense stinks. It can't run the ball effectively in its first season without Breece Hall, and quarterback Hunter Dekkers can't stop throwing the ball to the other team. His 13 interceptions are the most among all power conference QBs.
Second, coach Matt Campbell has clearly offended the god of close games. In nearly seven full seasons in Ames, Campbell is now 16-27 in one-score finishes. The Cyclones reached the Big 12 championship in 2020 by going 4-2 in such games, but they've lost 12 of 15 since.
Close games aren't all based on randomness -- quarterback play, special teams and old-fashioned game management all play roles, and clearly Campbell and his Clones have lacked in these regards. (See: the interceptions and a No. 128 ranking in special teams SP+.) But ... 12 of 15! Meanwhile, TCU has won five one-score games this year, including in each of the past two weeks, and Dykes has won eight of his past 11.
TCU has been playing with fire this year, but for the Cyclones to actually win a close game, they first have to make it close. That will mean finding some points for an offense that is trending in the wrong direction, and it will mean proving that a defense great at big-play prevention can indeed stop an offense great at making big plays.
Quarterback Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense have proven they are relentless in their search for chunk plays -- even if you hold them down for a while, doing so for 60 minutes against playmakers like receivers Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber and Savion Williams and backs Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado has proven almost impossible.
Current line: TCU -10 (down from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: TCU by 18.2 | FPI projection: TCU by 8.6
Notre Dame at USC (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ABC)
I have talked myself into and out of both of these teams repeatedly in recent days.
The case for Notre Dame pulling an upset:
Let's start with the obvious: USC's defense stinks. The Trojans rank 104th in points allowed per drive and 120th in yards. They have been totally reliant on turnovers. Coordinator Alex Grinch is aggressive and attempts to put USC in position to create turnovers where possible, but the Trojans have recovered 16 of 20 overall fumbles this season, an 80% rate that is unsustainably high. National averages for fumble recovery rates and the typical INT-to-breakups ratio suggest USC should have about a plus-4.8 turnover margin right now. Instead, they're at a nation-leading plus-21. That has handed them a huge boost in a season that has seen them win four one-score games. Just last week, USC forced four UCLA turnovers and still allowed 45 points and only won by three.
If or when the fickle god of turnovers turns on USC, the result won't be pretty. The Trojans rank a ghastly 118th in success rate allowed (123rd against the run), and while Notre Dame's offense is limited in explosiveness this season, it's still efficient -- the Irish are 24th in success rate.
This alone paints a pretty clear picture of how an Irish upset would take place: Notre Dame controls the ball with low-risk short gains and third-down conversions (USC also stinks at preventing those), the Trojans' offense remains on the sideline for long periods of time, and without turnovers to bail USC out, Notre Dame clears 35 points for the sixth straight game, et voila!
The case for USC surviving and advancing:
We'll start with the No. 1 reason USC has won 10 games this year despite the defense: Caleb Williams. The sophomore quarterback is up to fifth in Total QBR, averaging an explosive 13.9 yards per completion with a 33-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. USC ranks first in yards per drive and second in points per drive. Williams and receivers Jordan Addison, Tahj Washington, Brenden Rice and Mario Williams are almost impossible to stop consistently.
Granted, at 32nd in defensive SP+, Notre Dame's is one of the best defenses -- and maybe the best pass defense -- the Trojans have faced, but the Trojans' offense seems to get better every single week, and while the Irish have won five games in a row, they've done so against teams with an average offensive ranking of 78.4. They're poor at defending the red zone, and, well, USC is going to make red zone trips against anyone. If USC can disrupt Notre Dame's efficiency offense a bit and score TDs instead of field goals, things could get out of the Irish's reach.
Current line: USC -5.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 10.1 | FPI projection: USC by 5.5
My favorite bets
My best bets are currently in a slump: 2-3 last week and 3-7 over the past two. That has dropped us to 32-27-1 (54%) for the season. Never underestimate my ability to overthink and pick all the wrong edges. But hey, it's in the past. Time to trust the process, finish strong, et cetera. Here are my five favorites for this week.
New Mexico at Colorado State: Over 35 points (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN). This seems like a trap. Even though both of these teams have utterly atrocious offenses, their games have gone over 35 combined points 17 of 22 times this season. Colorado State's past four games have averaged 41.5 points. New Mexico's 42.3. The weather in Fort Collins should be lovely, and CSU freshman quarterback Clay Millen has been playing pretty well of late. Let's fall for the trap.
UCLA (-10) at Cal (Friday, 4:30 p.m., Fox). I believe UCLA is far more than 10 points better than Cal. We don't know how the Bruins will respond to back-to-back losses, but SP+ projects an advantage of 15.7 points for UCLA, and something in the 14-16 range sounds much more accurate to me.
Southern Miss (-3) at UL-Monroe (Saturday, 5 p.m., ESPN+). ULM has overachieved projections five times in the past six weeks, but despite a three-game losing streak, Southern Miss has overachieved in four of five and is 73% against the spread this season. SP+ projects an advantage of nearly nine points for USM instead of the three-point spread.
Pitt at Miami: Over 43.5 points (Saturday, 8 p.m., ACCN). The over is 7-3-1 in Pitt games this year, and this one seems particularly low. Sixteen of 22 Pitt and Miami games have topped 43.5, and while both teams' point totals have trended downward, I still think this number should be more like 48.
Kansas State (-12) vs. Kansas (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox). Like many teams that have battled long bowl droughts, Kansas took its foot off the gas after scoring its sixth win. The Jayhawks lost to Texas Tech and Texas by a combined 98-42. Plus, over the past month KSU has overachieved projections by 18.7 points per game. SP+ gives the Wildcats an 18.4-point edge. I'm taking the hint there.
Week 13 playlist
Here are a few more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Early Friday
Baylor at Texas (noon, ESPN). Texas needs to win to stay alive for one more day in the Big 12 championship race (the Horns will need KSU to lose to KU on Saturday, too), but good luck figuring out what either of these teams is capable of from week to week. Current line: Horns -8.5 (up from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Horns by 11.0 | FPI projection: Horns by 12.7
Tulane at Cincinnati (noon, ABC). These teams are co-leaders in the AAC -- the winner clinches a spot in the AAC championship, and the loser will need help from the god of tiebreakers. Cincinnati's defense is the best single unit in this game, but the Bearcats have suffered red zone deficiencies on both sides of the ball. That could add up. Current line: Cincy -2 (down from -2.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cincy by 4.7 | FPI projection: Cincy by 2.4
Friday afternoon
Arkansas at Missouri (3:30 p.m., CBS). Mizzou needs to win this one to secure bowl eligibility. The Tigers are 4-0 at home against the Hogs since joining the SEC, and the offense is perking up now that it's letting quarterback Brady Cook run more. But Arkansas is coming off of its best performance of the season, a thumping of Ole Miss. Current line: Hogs -3 (down from -4 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Hogs by 2.4 | FPI projection: Hogs by 2.0
NC State at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ABC). NC State is limping toward the finish line of a disappointing 7-4 season, and North Carolina's meager CFP hopes just ended with a shockingly dreadful 21-17 loss to Georgia Tech. But did you watch this game last year? We don't need stakes or trends for this rivalry to produce nuttiness. Current line: UNC -6.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: UNC by 6.0 | FPI projection: UNC by 3.9
Nebraska at Iowa (4 p.m., BTN). After a circuitous journey, Iowa can wrap up another Big Ten West title with an eighth straight win over the Huskers. Nebraska proved it's still competitive enough to pull off the "play well enough to lose a heartbreaker" routine in recent weeks, but it's fair to wonder if they've got anything left in the tank. Current line: Iowa -10.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 20.3 | FPI projection: Iowa by 13.5
Friday evening
Florida at Florida State (7:30 p.m., ABC). FSU might be the hottest team in the country, winning its past four games by an average of 43-10. Florida was hot until a sudden stinker at Vanderbilt. The Gators are as explosive as anyone, but can a dreadful Florida run defense hold up? Current line: FSU -9.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: FSU by 6.7 | FPI projection: FSU by 10.3
Early Saturday
South Carolina at Clemson (noon, ABC). If South Carolina plays like it did last week, the Gamecocks would beat anyone in the country ... but doing so two weeks in a row feels unlikely. Clemson has rounded into form nicely since the loss to Notre Dame. Current line: Clemson -14.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 10.6 | FPI projection: Clemson by 17.7
Coastal Carolina at James Madison (noon, ESPNU). Can we talk about JMU for a second? The Dukes unleashed a 20-point second-half comeback to beat Georgia State last week, and they could finish their inaugural season at 8-3 in maybe the most competitive Sun Belt ever. A two-touchdown spread seems aggressive even with Coastal's injury situation at QB, but there's a reason they're favored. Current line: JMU -13.5 (down from -14 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: JMU by 3.1 | FPI projection: JMU by 4.6
Georgia Tech at Georgia (noon, ESPN). This was one of the most reliably nutty rivalry games in FBS in the mid-2010s, but Georgia has won the past four battles by an average of 45-9. Tech caught North Carolina napping and scored a huge upset last week. This one would be a MUCH bigger upset. Current line: Dawgs -35.5 (up from -35 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Dawgs by 48.5 | FPI projection: Dawgs by 37.0
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS). It feels strange that Bryce Young and Will Anderson Jr. will not be playing in either the SEC championship or the CFP in their (likely) final seasons in Tuscaloosa. We still get the Iron Bowl, though. Current line: Bama -22 (up from -21.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 26.5 | FPI projection: Bama by 24.2
Oregon at Oregon State (3:30 p.m., ABC). Oregon State has exceeded projections in five straight games. Can the Beavers move to 9-3 and spoil Oregon's Pac-12 title plans at the same time? Can the Ducks summon another reserve of energy after two straight exhausting games? Current line: Ducks -3 (down from -3.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 4.4 | FPI projection: Ducks by 2.5
Louisville at Kentucky (3 p.m., SECN). Kentucky started the season 4-0 and briefly moved to seventh in the AP poll, while Louisville started 2-3 and generated quite a bit of "Scott Satterfield fired soon?" buzz. But the Wildcats have lost five of their past seven, and the Cardinals have won five of six. Now this game looks like a toss-up. Current line: UK -3.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Kentucky by 0.9 | FPI projection: Louisville by 2.1
Minnesota at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., ESPN). These are two teams that had ambitions far higher than "Hopefully we can win Paul Bunyan's Axe and finish 5-4 in conference play" heading into this season. But hey, winning the Axe is better than not winning it! Current line: Wisconsin -3.5 (up from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 4.5 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 1.2
Michigan State at Penn State (4 p.m., FS1). Penn State is smoking hot, and Michigan State's late-season improvement was thrown off course by a home loss to Indiana. Trends point to PSU, but this is a weird rivalry -- the Nittany Lions have been favored in each of the past six games in this series but have gone only 3-3. Current line: PSU -18 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: PSU by 23.8 | FPI projection: PSU by 17.1
Saturday evening
LSU at Texas A&M (7 p.m., ESPN). LSU has at least slightly exceeded projections in five straight games, while A&M has underachieved in four of five. It would take a South Carolina-level surprise for the Aggies to steal this one, but this young rivalry has already had some wild moments. Current line: LSU -10 (up from -9.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 9.3 | FPI projection: LSU by 8.7
Tennessee at Vanderbilt (7:30 p.m., SECN). Tennessee lost both its playoff hopes and its star quarterback (ACL tear) last Saturday night. The Vols are much better than Vanderbilt, but the Commodores are a spicy meatball at the moment. Tennessee still has to show up. Current line: Vols -14 (down from -15.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 25.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 22.3. (SP+ and FPI aren't adjusted to account for injuries.)
Kansas at Kansas State (8 p.m., Fox). I expect a pretty easy K-State win, but we've had about one good KU-KSU game in the past decade. Let's hope for the best here. Current line: KSU -12 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: KSU by 18.4 | FPI projection: KSU by 15.0
UCF at USF (7 p.m., ESPN2). UCF needs a win to keep its AAC title hopes alive, and the Knights nearly lost to an outmanned Bulls squad a year ago. You never know. But never mind all that -- if this is our last War on I-4 for a while with UCF leaving for the Big 12 next year, let's take a moment to relive the 2017 game, this rivalry's shining moment and one of the greatest games in recent history.
Current line: UCF -19.5 (up from -18 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCF by 26.9 | FPI projection: UCF by 17.8
Late Saturday
Washington at Washington State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). The Apple Cup: a perfect nightcap. Wazzu is up to 12th in defensive SP+, Washington's 15th on offense, and the line is nearly a tossup. Hell yes. Current line: UW -2 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: UW by 1.7 | FPI projection: UW by 0.9
Smaller-school showcase
All four lower levels of the sport -- FCS, Division II, Division III and NAIA -- now have their playoffs up and running. Throw in the glory of the annual Bayou Classic, and we've got ourselves a loaded weekend down the sport's long tail.
(All games below are on Saturday.)
Division III: No. 3 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 5 Trinity (Texas) (1 p.m., local streaming). This could be a particularly stiff test for UMHB, the defending national champion. Trinity is 11-0 and has won 21 of its past 22 games; the only defeat: 13-3 to the Cru in last year's playoffs. Trinity just won its first home playoff game in 11 years, and now it gets an even bigger one. SP+ projection: UMHB 28.3, Trinity 25.3.
NAIA: No. 7 Marian at No. 3 Northwestern (Iowa) (Saturday, 1 p.m., local streaming). These two teams are the second- and third-best in the NAIA quarterfinal field, according to SP+. Northwestern was the national runner-up in 2020-21, and Marian might have the best defense in NAIA. SP+ projection: Northwestern (Iowa) 23.1, Marian (Ind.) 18.4.
Bayou Classic: Grambling vs. Southern (2 p.m., NBC). Grambling is 3-7 in Hue Jackson's first year in charge, and Southern could lock up a date with Jackson State in the SWAC championship with a win. Can quarterback Besean McCray and Southern take advantage? SP+ projection: Southern 29.2, G-Men 24.7.
Division II: No. 6 West Florida at No. 9 Delta State (2:30 p.m., local streaming). These two put on a classic in September, with DSU winning a double-overtime thriller. Delta State quarterback Patrick Shegog has combined 2,617 passing yards with 712 rushing yards, and UWF boasts a three-pronged rushing attack with two good backs and QB Peewee Jarrett. (Jarrett is 6-foot-3, 245 pounds; the name is ironic.) This one has major track meet potential. SP+ projection: Delta State 38.6, UWF 35.3.
FCS: Idaho at Southeastern Louisiana (7 p.m., ESPN+). Styles make fights, and these teams throw haymakers. Idaho gave two power-conference FBS opponents fits and nearly beat No. 2 Sacramento State. SELA beat No. 7 Incarnate Word and Jacksonville State. (Both also suffered strange recent upset losses.) Both offenses will run as much as you let them, and both defenses get hands on lots of passes. SP+ projection: Idaho 32.3, Southeastern Louisiana 31.5.