Ohio State coach Ryan Day speaks in a direct manner fitting his Northeast roots. His bluntness often cuts to the core.
After the Buckeyes beat Notre Dame in their season opener, the theme of the win was Ohio State showing grit, a more refined defense and some of the toughness perceived to be missing from the previous edition of the Buckeyes. "We wanted to be known as something other than talented," Day said postgame.
Will that end up happening in 2022? The ultimate referendum looms this weekend. The stakes will be historic, as Day's No. 2 Buckeyes (11-0) and Jim Harbaugh's No. 3 Wolverines (11-0) are both undefeated heading into The Game for the first time since 2006. A potential Big Ten title, a College Football Playoff bid and bragging rights from a rivalry at full tilt are at stake.
Ultimately, the judgement of success of this Buckeyes team will come down to how it responds to last year's 42-27 loss to Michigan, with the Wolverines ending an eight-game losing streak in the rivalry. Both teams rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense and scoring defense this year, a testament to the caliber of game we can expect on Saturday.
Who will win? ESPN spoke to 15 coaches and NFL scouts familiar with the teams to break down the matchup. Ten picked Ohio State to win, five predicted Michigan and no one forecast a blowout.
"Ohio State's passing game is as good as college football has seen," said one coach. "Michigan's run game is as good as anyone has seen."
The theme of the picks drilled down to belief in a more talented team (Ohio State) or a team that some -- though not all -- believe can execute better overall, in part, because of complementary football and balance in all three phases.
Here are the 11 biggest things to watch from the coaches and scouts who've studied Ohio State and Michigan.
1. Which team is more talented?
ESPN asked two different scouts to break down the Ohio State and Michigan rosters. The Buckeyes have more overall talent; no one will argue that. The safe estimate for Ohio State players selected in the 2023 NFL draft -- depending on early-entry decisions -- is 13 to 15. Michigan could end up with 10 or 11. Ohio State has three players in Mel Kiper's latest Top 25 Big Board -- No. 3 C.J. Stroud, No. 9 Paris Johnson Jr. and No. 16 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. (Smith-Njigba has been injured and his status is uncertain for the Michigan game.)
"Ohio State has too much sustained firepower," reasoned one NFL scout. "The ceiling for Ohio State is higher than the ceiling of Michigan if both are playing well. Ohio State has some young guys that ... can change the game in a different way. Michigan has some guys. Just not as many."
Michigan's only ranked player, according to Kiper, is defensive lineman Mike Morris at No. 22. Scouts told ESPN they wouldn't be surprised if defensive tackle Mazi Smith is actually the first Wolverine drafted. Morris missed the Illinois game after getting injured the week before against Nebraska, and there's no update yet on his availability.
"Ohio State has more high-end talent," said another NFL scout. "Michigan has a lot of guys that are steady. NFL teams will evaluate them and they'll get drafted. But they don't have that many Day 1 or Day 2 guys, other than Mazi [Smith] and tight end Luke Schoonmaker. They'll have a bunch of mid-to-late-round guys, like [RG] Zak Zinter, [RB] Blake Corum and [WR] Ronnie Bell."
2. Who is the most talented player on the field?
The lightning-bolt arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. as a college football superstar has left scouts and opposing coaches breathless. They speak of him in rare hyperbole.
A sampling:
"He's on a different level."
"Best receiver I've seen there."
"Unless you double him, he's catching it."
"He's 6-4, 205 and when you walk on the field for pregame you say, 'Oh, we don't have any of those.'"
Harrison is a true sophomore who requires one more year before being eligible for the draft. He has 1,037 receiving yards, 11 touchdowns and has nearly broken Instagram with all his circus catches. He's spoken about in reverent terms by the OSU coaching staff and strength coaches. But perhaps the most interesting observation came from another NFL scout. Could he be the No. 1 overall NFL draft pick in 2024?
"Marvin Harrison Jr. is unbelievable," the scout said. "I could see him being in the position to be in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. I think the value of that wide receiver position has continued to increase the last few years, especially in the draft. Think about it, CeeDee Lamb went No. 17 in 2020 and Jerry Jeudy went No. 15. Now you're seeing that Cincinnati picked Ja'Marr Chase No. 5 overall (in 2021) and they go to the Super Bowl and Jameson Williams is hurt and he went No. 12 overall. That position is starting to move up the ladder. Harrison Jr. may be a great example of that trend. He's got rare ability -- size (6-foot-4, 205), great route running, he can run vertical routes, underneath and is great on third down. He can get shots downfield. He also hasn't dropped a pass all season. He's also a great dude and the team rallies around him."
3. What's different about Ohio State?
Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles will get a chance to show how far his unit has come, as his hiring in the offseason came largely because of the Buckeyes missing the College Football Playoff after the Michigan loss.
"Ohio State's defense completely changed from this year to last year, studying them in the offseason," said an opposing coach. "They look like a completely different defense. The kids played harder and there was more noticeable effort to the ball. They had more toughness. I think they're much improved. The year before you knew what look you were going to get. Now they disguise things, have different fronts and movements and blocking schemes. They're aggressive. They'll play some games with a lot of zone and quarters and Cover 2. Some games they play man. There's a variety of things they do this year as opposed to last year."
OSU has improved to No. 9 in total defense from No. 59 last year, an average difference of 89 fewer yards per game. According to ESPN Stats & Information, OSU ranks No. 2 in pressure percentage this year, up from No. 38 last year. (Knowles' Oklahoma State defense was No. 8 last year.)
4. What's Ohio State's path to victory?
This is easy. The Buckeyes are more talented, playing at home and favored by 7.5 points. Ohio State gave up 42 points last year, including the first 14 of the third quarter. It was the type of loss that rattled OSU's program, as it shook up its staff, focused its offseason on toughness and resulted in Day ushering the phrase "competitive stamina" into the vernacular.
Ohio State will need Stroud to exploit one-on-one perimeter matchups, and that will require an improved effort from Ohio State's offensive line. Part of the offseason shake-up was the hiring of UCLA offensive line coach Justin Frye. This will be a test of how far the Buckeyes have come up front with star tackles Johnson and Dawand Jones.
In last year's game, Michigan pressured Stroud on an astounding 43% of his dropbacks. It's by far the most pressure he has faced in his career, and he managed a solid outing -- 34-of-49 for 394 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Take out No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson and his dynamic edge complement David Ojabo, and Michigan should be easier to contain, even if the Wolverines have restocked on the line.
"They've done a good job replenishing talent with Hutchinson and Ojabo gone," a coach said. "You need to be able to run the football against them. And then it's getting in good matchups for Ohio State. If Ohio State gets (TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams) back and they can run the ball, there's going to be one-on-one matchups."
5. What's Michigan's path to victory?
To say coaches gushed about Michigan's offensive line would be underselling it. Coaches were effusive -- bordering on obsessive -- with the way they praised Michigan's entire unit. This all came while acknowledging that Ohio State has more talent on the offensive line, but Michigan's scheme, synchronicity and toughness were lauded.
Michigan runs some version of an inside zone run play on nearly 45% of its ground plays. "If you aren't in sync, then inside zone isn't going to work," said one coach. "It's the hardest play to run."
Michigan center Olusegun Oluwatimi, a transfer from Virginia, is the program's best NFL prospect on the offensive line. Zinter, the right guard, is likely the next best, followed by left tackle Ryan Hayes. (Starting left guard Trevor Keegan has missed the past two games with injury.) Right tackle Karsen Barnhart is solid, but he is the player most teams attempt to exploit in pass rush. "The sum is greater than their parts," a coach said.
The modest individual talent after Oluwatimi doubles as a compliment to a group that won the Joe Moore Award as the nation's top offensive line. "They should win it against this year," said another coach, who heaped praise on offensive line coach Sherrone Moore.
The coach added: "They are big, angular, thick and athletic men. They're not sloppy. They play with incredible precision and discipline, are adept running inside and out both pulling and trapping, running counter and are sound in pass protection. It's a confident, skilled and cohesive group that's on the same page the entire time."
6. Who holds the special teams edge?
Ohio State made a key special teams blunder in the first half of last year's game, as reserve kick returner Julian Fleming bungled the kickoff on OSU's first possession, pinning the Buckeyes at their own 4-yard line. That led to a three-and-out to open the game for OSU's offense. They already trailed 7-0 at that point.
Will they make a difference against this year?
"Philosophically, you can tell that special teams are important to Michigan," said one coach. "I don't know how important it is to Ohio State. You can tell just by watching Michigan play that it's important to everyone on that team, it's part of the core philosophical approach. There's two different kinds of special teams approaches. There's playing to not mess things up, and there's playing to be aggressive, attempting to block kicks and punts. Ohio State is good on special teams, like all teams with a lot of talent and depth. And they're well coached. Michigan is looking to impact the game. That's the difference."
In fairness, most of these interviews were done last week. That meant opposing coaches missed Buckeye defensive back Lathan Ransom's game-changing blocked punt against Maryland, his second in two weeks. They also missed OSU getting an extra point blocked and returned for a Terps 2-point conversion.
Michigan kicker Jake Moody, last year's Lou Groza Award winner, booted four field goals -- including three in the fourth quarter -- to hold off Illinois on Saturday. He's 25-for-30 this year, with three of those misses from more than 50 yards. OSU kicker Noah Ruggles is 12-of-14 on the season.
Most of the coaches who picked Michigan pointed to special teams as an edge. "I think they are tougher than Ohio State, and I think Michigan will win the special teams battle," said one coach.
7. How can Ohio State stop the run?
The health of Corum, Michigan's Heisman talent at tailback, is the biggest on-field storyline heading into the game. He's tied for No. 2 nationally with 17 rushing touchdowns, is No. 5 with 134.9 yards per game and has ridden that offensive line for the searing identity of this team.
He left the Illinois game with an apparent knee injury and has stated to local media -- while handing out Thanksgiving turkeys -- that he's "fine" and will "be back."
Last year, Ohio State's defensive line got mowed over as Michigan ran for 297 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. Ohio State has a talented defensive line, but will it stuff the run? Knowles' defense has cut down the number of rushes over five yards from 37 percent to 32 percent, which is the 11th best in the FBS. They were No. 63 last year, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The key to stopping Corum -- or whoever is Michigan's lead back -- is linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, who had a breakout year leading the Big Ten in solo tackles (67). Expect Eichenberg, operating in a more linebacker-friendly system, to play big if Ohio State is to prevent Michigan from moving the chains and controlling the ball.
"Ohio State's defensive line is no longer playing selfish and just trying to get sacks [like last year]," said a scout. "They play their gaps, read and react. And that's left Eichenberg with tape that's as good as any linebacker in the country. He's incredibly instinctive, a really good tackler, really good vision, and makes up for any athletic deficiencies by playing really, really fast. Even though he's not all that fast. He's a poor man's Luke Kuechly."
8. How will Michigan stop the pass?
Prior to last season, Ohio State won the previous three games against Michigan by an average of 21 points. Those wins featured a lopsided passing attack that left Michigan's defense undressed, including a 62-point outburst in 2018 highlighted by five passing touchdowns and 567 total yards gained.
There has been a change in both scheme and talent since then. And while Ohio State's receivers are still considered superior to Michigan's corners, that position has upgraded in talent and been aided by a scheme change.
"I think Michigan has really improved at corner with DJ Turner and Gemon Green," said a coach. "Just watching Michigan film over the years, they've definitely improved in that area. I feel like the outside guys are very good players. The nickel was a new player (converted WR Mike Sainristil); he was very talented but we felt like we could work the middle on him with option routes and do underneath stuff."
Michigan struggled with mesh routes and relied too much on man coverage. That changed last season when Mike Macdonald brought in a more sophisticated NFL scheme. First-year coordinator Jesse Minter has continued that since MacDonald went to the Baltimore Ravens. There's been a strong carryover, as Michigan is No. 1 nationally in total defense (232.8) and scoring defense (11.2).
"Where Michigan is elite is on third-down defense," a coach said. "It's probably the best third-down defense that I've seen in the last five years. They just scheme you, they don't just line up and blitz. If you are sliding the line one way and putting the back on a boundary linebacker, they are going to counter that by walking a guy up to the field side and make you slide your protection to the field. They'll do things like blitz the WILL linebacker and the corner and now you're hot. They're going to bring more than you can pick up at times, it's high risk and high reward. On first and second down, it's an NFL defense. They play what they play and adjust to your formation and focus on trying to take away what you do best."
9. Who has the quarterback edge?
Ohio State's Stroud is a Heisman favorite with 35 touchdowns and four interceptions, completing 66.4% of his passes. He's projected as a top-five NFL draft pick, likely the second quarterback behind Alabama's Bryce Young.
How can they stop him? "For Michigan to win, they're going to have to run the ball at will," said a scout. "And they're going to have to pressure C.J. Stroud and force him into some of the plays he's had this year, where he can have a quarter-and-a-half where he doesn't look good. It's the same formula from last year. Be physically imposing and dominant and don't make any mistakes on offense."
Also interesting to note that Stroud rarely runs, as only the blustery day at Northwestern got him running for 79 yards, his only day with more than 10 all year. "The physical tools are there," said another NFL scout. "It's weird. He's a good athlete and he doesn't run. He can extend plays, move on the run and rip it really well. They do a really good job at max protecting and taking shots downfield to the playmakers they have. You kind of wish he was more of a threat with his feet."
J.J. McCarthy earned the job in the early part of the season in an effort for Harbaugh to give Michigan's offense more dynamism. He earned rave reviews for his ability to scramble and keep defenses off-balance. (He averages 4.3 yards per carry this year.)
"I really think people are underestimating the Michigan quarterback," said a coach. "He's a first-round guy down the road. I really like McCarthy. I don't think they'd be as good if Harbaugh didn't make the switch from [Cade] McNamara. Don't underestimate what McCarthy can do with his feet. He doesn't run scared, he runs with a purpose."
Whether McCarthy can keep Ohio State's defense honest by loosening the box will be a key. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Michigan faced an eight-man box at the sixth highest rate among Power 5 teams this year. Does McCarthy have the receivers to beat those heavy looks?
"Ronnie Bell did not scare me, I promise," said a coach. "He's a team player and he'll block and do that. But the back [Corum] is so good, he'll make up for everyone."
10. Could a tight end emerge as a surprise hero?
Keep an eye on the availability of Michigan's Schoonmaker, who dressed against Illinois but did not play and hasn't since getting injured against Rutgers on Nov. 5. He's second on the team in catches (30) and yards (315).
"[He's] so important to what they do," said a coach. "[He's] a matchup nightmare, a big, physical and fast guy. He can out-athlete a linebacker, out-physical safeties or defensive backs. He can work in the run game as well. A lot of guys are 'either or' in terms of the pass game and run game, the best are the guys that can do both. As a DC, you can't draw a beat on what the offense is going to do when [Schoonmaker] is in there. You're always having to figure out, how do I match up to this man? It's a difficult task."
Schoonmaker is a 6-foot-6, 250-pounder who is the best tight end prospect in the game, but Ohio State's Cade Stover has been a revelation for the Buckeyes this year.
Stover is a converted defensive lineman who has been heavily targeted in Ohio State's offense this season. Surprisingly, he's emerged as a solid NFL prospect. He's still unrefined, but he has earned the respect of the Big Ten.
Stroud's ability to stretch the field has created a swath of room for Stover to operate, and he's third on the team with 31 catches and fourth with five touchdown catches. The 31 catches is more than any tight end in a season since Urban Meyer came to Columbus, and he's on pace for one of the five best tight end receiving years in school history. (He needs 39 catches to tie for No. 5).
"It's really because the receivers are so good, teams have to put linebackers on him," said a coach. "They can't afford to use a safety to cover the tight end. They need over the top to help the corners."
Bonus question: What's the forecast?
Last year, spitting snow set the backdrop for Michigan's romp. This year, it should be too warm to snow, with a high of 52 degrees -- but there's a 60% chance of rain. This won't be as drastic as Ohio State's offense getting bogged down in a 21-7 win at Northwestern this year amid "Wizard of Oz" winds.
However, there's a sense that a clear day will give Ohio State an advantage to accentuate its advantage in the passing game.
"I think the outcome depends in part on the elements," said a coach. "Michigan is a little more physical. They're a little more November-football ready. If this was in a dome, I think Ohio State would have a bigger edge. You saw a little bit of that against Northwestern two weeks ago. The edge goes to Michigan [on a cold day]."