The weekend before Rivalry Week has turned into something of an alternative programming showcase in college football. Games like Michigan-Ohio State have moved back a week, the SEC unloads its remaining cakey nonconference games, and with such huge games on the near horizon, the College Football Playoff race almost hits pause with a series of undercard affairs.
On one hand, that's frustrating -- Ohio State-Michigan is right there, but we have to wait another week for it! On the other hand, we get to focus our gaze on other intriguing storylines. The Pac-12 is putting on a particularly fun and important pair of games Saturday night (along with Bedlam in the Big 12!), the small-school slate is loaded and young stars that we will be talking about a lot in 2023 are quickly emerging.
Week 12 has already given us some incredible, snowy MACtion games that I hope you had a chance to take in. Here's everything else you need to follow during Week 12, aka Alternative Programming Week.
The Pac-12's big night
The new Pac-12 turned into the old Pac-12 last week. It has rebounded beautifully from a dismal 2021 campaign and currently boasts five of the top 17 teams in the CFP rankings. But a lot of its current CFP drought -- no Pac-12 team has made it since 2016 -- stems from the fact that (a) it usually has a lot of really good teams but no top-five caliber teams, and (b) the good teams beat each other up and the conference champ ends up with two or more losses.
The Pac-12 had three one-loss CFP contenders at the start of last week and one at the end of it. Oregon fell to Washington (forgivable) and UCLA fell to Arizona (less so) in a Pac-12 After Dark classic, and suddenly 9-1 USC, which is seventh in the CFP rankings, is the conference's last playoff hope. The Trojans might need some help to climb into the top four in the coming weeks, but they could help themselves by shifting into gear and thumping some good teams (UCLA, Notre Dame and whomever they might face in the Pac-12 championship game).
The Pac-12 race is still an absolute free-for-all, with five teams within a game of the top of the standings -- SP+ currently gives Utah a 36% chance of winning the league, Oregon 29%, USC 27%, UCLA 7% and Washington 0.4%. Two potential Saturday night toss-ups should bring clarity. Let's get weird out West.
All times are Eastern
No. 7 USC at No. 16 UCLA (8 p.m., Fox)
This used to be a common occurrence. Between 1978 and 1988, USC and UCLA met seven times as ranked foes, peaking with 1988's battle, when Troy Aikman and the sixth-ranked Bruins lost to Rodney Peete -- fighting off a case of the measles! -- and the second-ranked Trojans. It's only happened six times in the 34 years since, however.
The last time these programs both appeared to be trending in the right direction came in the 2012 to 2014 range, when they were both ranked for three straight meetings, all UCLA wins. It's been a bumpy ride since. But as the teams prepare for what still feels like a shocking move to the Big Ten in 2024, the arrows are lining up once again. Lincoln Riley has made the Trojans both entertaining and good in his first season, while Chip Kelly's Bruins are 8-2 and had just re-entered the top 10 for the first time in seven years when last week's Arizona pothole appeared.
On paper, this is a ridiculously even matchup. A lot of this game could be determined by how UCLA responds to last week's disappointment, but on paper this is like two teams looking in the mirror.
• Rushing success rate: USC fourth, UCLA fifth
• Rushing success rate allowed: UCLA 114th, USC 115th
• Passing success rate: UCLA sixth, USC 16th
• Passing success rate allowed: USC 100th, UCLA 116th
The offenses hold nearly every advantage here. UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is on pace for 3,000 passing yards and 600 rushing yards and teammate Zach Charbonnet is on pace for more than 1,800 combined rushing and receiving yards. USC's transfer army, led by quarterback Caleb Williams and receiver Jordan Addison, has produced as expected. Its leading rusher, Travis Dye, was lost for the season to injury last week, which could hurt against better run defenses, but Austin Jones has matched Dye's per-carry numbers, and freshman Raleek Brown is coming off his best game.
In USC's lone loss, the Trojans gave up 43 points at 7.3 yards per play; in UCLA's two losses, the Bruins allowed 39.5 points per game and 7.1 yards per play. Two new defensive coordinators have produced only marginal improvement thus far.
There are some slight differences between the teams -- USC's offense is better in the red zone, UCLA does a better job of preventing big plays, and UCLA's special teams unit has been more consistent (which has helped create some excellent field position advantages). But as with UCLA-Oregon a few weeks ago, this is a break-of-serve matchup: Any defensive stop, any forced field goal, is a win. It would be a surprise if either defense ended up with many wins.
Current line: USC -2.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCLA by 0.5 | FPI projection: USC by 3.5
No. 10 Utah at No. 12 Oregon (10:30 p.m., ESPN/ESPN app)
Last we saw Utah and Oregon on the same field, the Utes were teaching the Ducks a lesson. In two meetings over the course of three weeks last season, Utah led by a combined 51-0 at halftime and cruised to wins of 38-7 and 38-10. The Utes averaged over a yard more per play and converted 63% of their third downs to Oregon's 38%. The Ducks thought of themselves as a sturdy, physical team, and Utah gave them the rudest of reality checks.
This year's reality check came a week early. Oregon's CFP hopes were dashed by Washington this time, but its Pac-12 title hopes live on, at least for now. A second straight home loss, and a third straight loss to Utah, would damage those hopes significantly.
Injuries might play a role in this outcome. From a "somebody knows something" perspective, the fact that Caesars Sportsbook has moved the line from Oregon -3 to Utah -2 since Sunday could say something foreboding about the injury status of both Oregon starting quarterback Bo Nix and a couple of offensive line starters, all of whom were hurt against Washington. Nix returned to nearly lead a miracle field goal drive at the end, and with his exploits this year -- 2,775 passing yards, 516 rushing yards, 38 combined touchdowns and a No. 3 Total QBR ranking -- it's safe to say Oregon's odds Saturday night would indeed take a tumble if he couldn't go.
The Ducks might not be hopeless without him, however. They still rank first in rushing success rate thanks to the work of Bucky Irving and Noah Whittington (combined: 1,451 yards, six TDs), and Utah's run defense has been shockingly bad this season (100th in rushing success rate allowed). With or without Nix, the Ducks will likely lean on the short game, and it should work well.
Oregon's solid run defense could throw a kink into Utah's offensive plans at times, but Cam Rising should find opportunities through the air against a defense that ranks 120th in passing success rate allowed and gave up 408 yards to Washington's Michael Penix Jr. last week. In Utah's thrilling 43-42 win over USC in October, Rising completed 15 of 15 passes to tight end Dalton Kincaid for 217 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid and wideout Devaughn Vele have been key to a unique and physical passing game that doesn't produce enough big plays but overruns teams with efficiency.
It's difficult to set expectations without knowing the status of Nix and his line, but this one still has potential for points. And if the Ducks are close enough to full strength, they might be able to avenge last year's embarrassment.
Current line: Utah -2 (flipped from Oregon -3 Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ducks by 2.2 | FPI projection: Utah by 0.6
Breakout star showcase
There aren't as many must-watch games as usual this week, but the list of must-watch players is increasing. Let's call this list the Harold Perkins Jr. All-Stars. LSU's freshman pass-rusher has suddenly emerged as one of the best players in the country, but he's not the only youngster thriving. Here are 15 more -- mostly freshmen or sophomores -- that you should definitely check in on this weekend. We could be talking about them a lot in 2023.
QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
Georgia Tech at No. 13 North Carolina (5:30 p.m., ESPN2)
Signing Sam Howell was both one of the first and most important things Mack Brown did upon his rehire at UNC. Howell was wild at times, scrambling into trouble and trying to win games in a single play, but he averaged 3,248 yards and 31 touchdowns over three seasons and helped kick-start the Tar Heels' rebound. With Howell handing the reins to redshirt freshman Maye, it was fair to expect at least a temporary drop-off in production.
Or not.
Maye is on pace for about 4,800 passing yards and 48 touchdowns. The Tar Heels peaked at ninth in offensive SP+ under Howell but are currently second. The next time they score under 27 points will be the first time all season. They cruised to an ACC Coastal title despite a defense that doesn't seem to have improved much under coordinator Gene Chizik. (It might be starting to trend in the right direction, but it's doing so very slowly.) The 2024 draft hype train is already rolling, but we will get at least one more season with Maye at the college level, and we still have four more games this year too.
Current line: UNC -21 (up from -20 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UNC by 24.6 | FPI projection: UNC by 17.9
QB Jordan Travis, Florida State
Louisiana at No. 19 Florida State (noon, ESPN3)
In this week's "most improved" piece, I noted Florida State's recent surge. The Seminoles have won their last three games by a combined 124-22, and in those games Travis has completed 75% of his (mostly short) passes with nine touchdowns and one interception. He's extremely mobile -- he has five 100-yard rushing games in his career, and his scramble rates are typically quite high -- but stays within the confines of the offense better, and it's paying off. Travis certainly isn't young (he's a fifth-year junior), but he could see some Heisman sleeper hype next year if he returns and FSU maintains the trajectory that it is currently establishing. Louisiana is skilled enough to trouble the Noles, however, if they start to look toward next week's rivalry game with Florida.
Current line: FSU -24 (up from -23.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Noles by 13.3 | FPI projection: FSU by 22.1
QB Will Howard, Kansas State
No. 15 Kansas State at West Virginia (2 p.m., ESPN+)
Best laid plans and whatnot: With Adrian Martinez transferring in, K-State coach Chris Klieman intended to redshirt Howard, a third-year veteran with three years of eligibility remaining. When Martinez got hurt, Howard exploded for 521 passing yards and six touchdowns against TCU and Oklahoma State, but the redshirt plan remained intact. But Martinez got hurt again, and K-State torched Baylor with Howard again behind center. Looks like it's time to ditch the plan and charge toward a Big 12 championship bid. Howard will likely start in Morgantown on Saturday.
Current line: KSU -7.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: KSU by 14.1 | FPI projection: KSU by 7.9
RB Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss
No. 14 Ole Miss at Arkansas (7:30 p.m., SECN)
Lane Kiffin brought in a bounty of transfers in 2022, but maybe the biggest standout among the newcomers is a freshman from Montgomery, Alabama. Judkins has averaged 148 rushing yards over the past four games and is up to 1,169 with 15 touchdowns for the season. Throw in blue-chip transfer Zach Evans and a very mobile quarterback in Jaxson Dart (also a transfer), and you've got a backfield that is as dynamic as it is new. Let's see how the Rebels fare against an Arkansas defense that played its best game of the season last week against LSU.
Current line: Ole Miss -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.5 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.4
RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, Penn State
No. 11 Penn State at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN)
Do you hear that rumbling off in the distance? It's the 2023 Penn State hype train. After signing a breakthrough recruiting class, James Franklin's Nittany Lions are 8-2 this season and have lost only to CFP top-three teams (Ohio State and Michigan). Their future golden-boy quarterback, Drew Allar, has looked pretty good in a backup role (302 yards, four touchdowns), and two other blue-chippers, the five-star Singleton and four-star Allen, have combined for 1,432 yards (5.8 per carry) and 18 touchdowns.
The two have alternated breakout games, and for the first time since 2019, the Nittany Lions appear to have an increasingly reliable run game to lean on. They've won their past two games by a combined 75-14, and while Ohio State and Michigan also look like potential top-five teams next season, Penn State should see quite a few top-10 votes (or better) as well.
Current line: PSU -19 (down from -19.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: PSU by 23.3 | FPI projection: PSU by 20.1
RB Devin Neal, Kansas
Texas at Kansas (3:30 p.m., FS1)
Kansas was 1-8 under Lance Leipold when it headed down to Austin last year for what turned out to be one of the most stunning results of 2021. The Jayhawks are 7-6 since. (So are the Longhorns.) Another upset win -- and it wouldn't be nearly as big of an upset this time -- would be the perfect bookend for one of the most awe-inspiring turnarounds we've seen in recent years.
While we wait to see who starts at quarterback for the Jayhawks -- recent starter Jason Bean is banged up and questionable, while September star Jalon Daniels is "really, really close" to returning from injury, per Leipold -- let's see what Neal can do against a strong Longhorns front. The sophomore from Lawrence has gone off for 532 rushing and receiving yards in the past two games, and the thought of a 2023 Jayhawks backfield with Neal and Daniels is awfully sexy.
Current line: Texas -9 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas by 10.3 | FPI projection: Texas by 10.3
WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
No. 5 Tennessee at South Carolina (7 p.m., ESPN)
You have probably already seen Hyatt coming up big a few times this season. But let's continue to appreciate what he's doing. In his past five games, the junior slot man has 31 catches for 728 yards and 10 touchdowns. If those were his season totals, he would rank 50th nationally in yards and fifth in touchdowns. South Carolina's pass defense is just about the best thing the Gamecocks have going for them, but they haven't seen anything like Hyatt.
Current line: Vols -22 (up from -21 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Vols by 16.3 | FPI projection: Vols by 18.1
WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
No. 2 Ohio State at Maryland (3:30 p.m., ABC)
If Hyatt is this year's breakout slot receiver, Harrison is the new star out wide. In the absence of injured star Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the son of the NFL great has caught 60 passes for 969 yards and 11 scores, and he topped 130 yards for the third time in five games last week against Indiana. Ohio State is rumbling toward a CFP bid and hasn't yet had its full skill-corps arsenal available. If the Buckeyes are healthy come December, look out. (And if they're not, Harrison and Emeka Egbuka could still take them pretty far.)
Current line: Buckeyes -27.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Buckeyes by 22.3 | FPI projection: Buckeyes by 18.9
RT Sataoa Laumea and LT Braeden Daniels, Utah
No. 10 Utah at No. 12 Oregon (10:30 p.m., ESPN)
We talked about Utah above, but let's take a moment to highlight the work of this tackle duo. Daniels is an upperclassman, but Laumea is a breakout sophomore, and despite protecting an unpredictable and often mobile quarterback, the two have combined to allow just two sacks, with an overall blown block rate of just 1.6%. The Utah offensive line is rounding into form just in time for the stretch run.
DT Leonard Taylor III, Miami
Miami at No. 9 Clemson (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
There haven't been too many reasons to watch Miami of late. The Hurricanes have lost five of their past eight, and star quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has been battling both injury and massive underachievement in a lost season. They are nearly three touchdown underdogs in Death Valley East, and with good reason. But they've got a ferocious and fun pass rush, and the 305-pound Taylor, from Miami Palmetto High School, is an absolute wrecking ball. He's recorded three sacks, his 13% pressure rate is the best among Miami's primary pass-rushers and he's made seven run stops at or behind the line. And he's averaging only about 23 snaps per game! A bigger spot in the rotation could produce a huge 2023.
Current line: Clemson -19 (down from -19.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Clemson by 18.4 | FPI projection: Clemson by 19.4
LB Jason Henderson, Old Dominion
Old Dominion at Appalachian State (2:30 p.m., ESPN+)
It's senior day for quarterback Chase Brice and the rest of the App State crew that gave us so much enjoyment in September, and the Mountaineers should move to 6-5 with a comfortable win in Boone. But they'll have to account for Henderson, a true sophomore from Dingmans Ferry, Pennsylvania, who has not only taken part in 145 tackles this year (more than twice that of any other Monarch) but has also made 24 run stops and performed beautifully when dropping into coverage. He's everywhere.
Current line: App State -16 (up from -14.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: App State by 16.2 | FPI projection: App State by 15.3
DB Sebastian Castro, Iowa
Iowa at Minnesota (4 p.m., Fox)
Somehow, despite a midseason three-game losing streak and an offense as bad as any in recent Iowa history, the Hawkeyes could seize control of the Big Ten West race with a win in Minneapolis. If they do, it's because of a defense that has returned to No. 1 in defensive SP+ after allowing 26 total points in the past three weeks.
It's probably not a coincidence that Castro's workload has increased in that span. The fourth-year late bloomer is Iowa's CASH linebacker (a nickel back in more general parlance), and he has proven useful both in coverage -- passes targeting his guy have averaged just 4.6 yards per attempt with three team interceptions -- and near the line of scrimmage. He's made two run stops at or behind the line and six tackles within three yards, and he was all over the place against Wisconsin last week.
Current line: Minnesota -2.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Gophers by 4.8 | FPI projection: Gophers by 6.4
My favorite bets
You can't say I didn't warn you. After my favorite bets went 4-1 in Week 10, I felt a regression coming. It was my best prediction of the week. We went 1-4 in Week 11 to fall back to 30-24-1 (55%) for the season -- not bad, but not amazing either.
Time to rebound. Here are this week's picks.
No. 15 Kansas State (-7.5) at West Virginia (2 p.m., ESPN+). Placing hard-earned money on either of these teams feels like a terrible idea, but here we are. In the past four weeks, Kansas State has underachieved SP+ projections by 6.0, overachieved by 48.0, underachieved by 5.7 and overachieved by 29.7. West Virginia has been almost as unreliable: underachieve by 36.2 and 9.4, then overachieve by 16.3.
So why am I picking K-State? Because I think the Wildcats are two touchdowns better than WVU. The end. I do better when I don't overthink.
No. 13 North Carolina (-21) vs. Georgia Tech (5:30 p.m., ESPN2). I also believe UNC is more than three touchdowns better than Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have underachieved projections in three of their past four games, and while Tech's pass defense is a strength, it has faced just two offenses in the SP+ top 30 and allowed 40-plus to both teams. UNC easily has the best offense the Jackets will face. Something of the 42-17 variety feels likely.
No. 23 Oregon State (-8) at Arizona State (2:15 p.m., ESPN2). Oregon State briefly stumbled into mediocrity after quarterback Chance Nolan was hurt against Utah, but redshirt freshman Ben Gulbranson has played well of late, and the OSU defense has surged to 27th in defensive SP+. The Beavers have overachieved SP+ projections in four straight games, and SP+ gives them an 11.8-point advantage here. That's a good cushion.
Western Kentucky (+5.5) at Auburn (4 p.m., SECN). I'm picking too many favorites here, so let's diversify the portfolio. Over the past three weeks, Western Kentucky has risen from 68th to 45th in SP+ while Auburn has fallen from 43rd to 69th. Auburn is fighting hard under interim coach Cadillac Williams, and the Tigers' pass defense is their biggest strength -- important to note considering the Hilltoppers will throw all day if teams let them. But WKU could still control the game from an efficiency standpoint, and any time you can force Auburn to throw, you win.
Florida at Vanderbilt: Over 57.5 (noon, SECN). There's always a concern picking Florida in chilly temperatures (Nashville forecast at kickoff: sunny, but 42 degrees), but it's hard to ignore the fact that Vanderbilt has played against four offenses ranked in the top 25 in offensive SP+ and allowed an average of 51.8 points per game. If Florida (21st) can score between 35 and 42, an improving Vandy offense should be able to take care of the other 16 to 23.
Week 12 playlist
Here are a few more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
You know what? It's been a long season. Take Friday night off. There's not much here, and you might have some "Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives" episodes to catch up on. I know I do.
Early Saturday
No. 4 TCU at Baylor (noon, Fox). This one was starting to feel like a toss-up until the Bears' blowout loss to Kansas State last week. It still could be, but only if Baylor finds its misplaced passing game. Quarterback Blake Shapen hasn't done well of late. Current line: TCU -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: TCU by 6.0 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.4
Illinois at No. 3 Michigan (noon, ABC). The forecast: gray skies with temperatures in the mid-20s. That's how it should always be for Michigan's last home game of the year. Illinois' still great defense could give the Wolverines fits, but the Illini are 0-3 when allowing more than 14 points this year. Michigan should score more than 14. Current line: Michigan -18 (up from -17 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Michigan by 21.0 | FPI projection: Michigan by 19.4
Saturday afternoon
No. 1 Georgia at Kentucky (3:30 p.m., CBS). Things have begun to fall apart for Kentucky: The Wildcats have dramatically underachieved projections over the past three weeks. If Georgia takes its eye off the ball, UK is still physical enough to make things interesting, but this one has lost a lot of luster. Current line: Dawgs -22.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Dawgs by 20.0 | FPI projection: Dawgs by 22.0
Boston College at No. 18 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC). After two straight excellent performances, Notre Dame fell asleep and nearly blew a big lead against Navy. The Irish better wake up for this one because Boston College is coming off its most inspired performance of the season, an upset of NC State. Current line: Irish -21 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Irish by 22.4 | FPI projection: Irish by 22.1
South Alabama at Southern Miss (3:30 p.m., NFL Network). A frustrating October home loss to Troy is probably going to keep South Alabama out of the Sun Belt championship game, but you should still steal a glance at the Jaguars' outstanding defense, which is up to 21st in defensive SP+. It's always fun to watch Southern Miss' Frank Gore Jr. as well. Current line: USA -7.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: USA by 10.9 | FPI projection: USA by 4.4
Saturday evening
No. 22 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (7:30 p.m., ABC). First, Oklahoma announces it's leaving the Big 12 for the SEC, effectively killing the Bedlam rivalry for at least a while. Then, the Sooners completely fall apart on the field, thereby taking the shine off of one of the last Bedlam matchups we do get. How rude. (It's still going to be a great environment, though. And I'm betting OSU still throws some haymakers.) Current line: OU -7.5 (up from -7 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OU by 3.4 | FPI projection: OU by 4.0
Stanford at Cal (5:30 p.m., Pac-12). It's been a mostly miserable season for both of these 3-7 teams, but that almost makes rivalry games like this mean even more. The winner steals a spark of joy. (Also: Watch "The Band Is on the Field.") Current line: Cal -5 (down from -5.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Cal by 4.6 | FPI projection: Cal by 4.8
Boise State at Wyoming (7 p.m., CBSSN). After some early-season misfires, Boise State has turned around its season; with a win in Laramie, the Broncos would clinch the MWC Mountain division. Wyoming is at its best when it is wrecking plans, however, and an upset would give the Cowboys control of the division race instead. Current line: BSU -14 (up from -12.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: BSU by 12.4 | FPI projection: BSU by 11.3
Late Saturday
UAB at No. 6 LSU (9 p.m., ESPN2). UAB has battled through Bill Clark's sudden summer retirement and some achingly tight losses -- its five wins have come by a total of 134 points, its five losses by 27. The defense remains sound, and DeWayne McBride leads the nation with 156 rushing yards per game. This is a strong test of concentration for LSU -- if the Tigers are distracted at all after clinching the SEC West last week, the Blazers will pop them in the mouth. Current line: LSU -14.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: LSU by 14.0 | FPI projection: LSU by 17.6
Smaller-school showcase
There is officially too much going on at the smaller-school level this week. At the FCS level, we've got a series of storied rivalry games -- Yale at Harvard (noon, ESPNU), Lehigh at Lafayette (12:30 p.m., ESPN+), No. 12 Montana at No. 3 Montana State (2 p.m., ESPN+), No. 5 Jackson State at Alcorn State (3 p.m., ESPN+). All of them are worth tuning in for the atmosphere alone, and "College GameDay" will be on hand to document the proceedings in Bozeman. But at the Division II, Division III and NAIA levels, it's playoff time!
Granted, most of the national title favorites at each level are either on bye (Division II) or heavily favored (Division III, NAIA), but if you get a chance to fire up the laptop and check into the proceedings, here are some particularly interesting first-round playoff matchups.
D2: No. 8 NW Missouri State at No. 3 Ouachita Baptist (2 p.m., local streaming). The Division II playoffs are broken into super regions for geographic purposes, and Region 3 is overloaded with awesome teams. Three of the four best teams in the playoffs, per my D2 SP+ ratings, are here, and while NW Missouri State hasn't played quite to its typical standard, the Bearcats are still 9-2 with a high-level defense and could give unbeaten OBU fits. The winner faces top-ranked Grand Valley State. SP+ projection: OBU 31.2, NW Missouri State 25.3.
D3: No. 12 Wartburg (Iowa) at No. 7 Wisconsin-La Crosse (1 p.m., local streaming). UWLC tied for first in the wild WIAC and boasts a prolific and balanced offense, one of the best in Division III. Wartburg is unbeaten, having dominated a (pretty weak) schedule by an average score of 46-6. The winner likely gets No. 6 St. John's. SP+ projection: UWLC 30.5, Wartburg 30.0.
NAIA: No. 13 Avila (Missouri) at No. 5 Indiana Wesleyan (1 p.m., local streaming). Indiana Wesleyan began playing in 2018, and Jordan Langs has already created a powerhouse -- in the past two years, the Wildcats' only on-field losses were to a top-five Concordia team by seven in 2021 and to FCS' Valparaiso by three this year. An inadvertent eligibility issue cost them a playoff shot last year, but now they get a chance to make a run. SP+ projection: Indiana Wesleyan 22.7, Avila 20.1.