The coaching carousel started early this season and added a new opening Sunday, but there haven't been many true surprises.
Entering the fall, four Power 5 jobs were highlighted, circled and underlined as likely to open: Arizona State, Auburn, Georgia Tech and Nebraska. All four are now vacant. The Group of 5 had several tenuous coaching situations, too, including South Florida's Jeff Scott, who had received a small contract extension in January despite a 3-18 record at the school.
USF certainly wanted Scott to turn things around. He still had plenty of supporters, including athletic director Michael Kelly. But the wins simply never came. After Saturday's 54-28 road loss to Temple, which had dropped four straight and had not scored more than 20 points in a league game, USF fired Scott. He went 1-8 this season and finished 4-26 at the school (1-18 in AAC games).
Below we'll take a quick look at the types of candidates South Florida could consider, along with all the latest coaching buzz coming out of Week 10.
We'll also do a mini-reset of some of the coaching searches that are now almost two months old at Nebraska, Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and Wisconsin. And it has only been a week, but we'll update the situation at Auburn. Where do things stand and which candidates are improving their odds for those jobs? Plus our ranking of the open Power 5 jobs.
More coaching carousel coverage:
Jump to ranking the open jobs
Jump to reassessing candidates
The latest buzz: Everything I'm hearing (updated Nov. 8)
Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz had been moving away from any real job jeopardy for a while, and the school on Saturday made it clear he's not going anywhere, awarding him a two-year contract extension through the 2027 season. The school had been giving out extensions to Drinkwitz's staff, including defensive coordinator Blake Baker, so committing to the lead man made sense.
Other coaches officially off the hot seat include Louisville's Scott Satterfield, North Texas' Seth Littrell and Bowling Green's Scot Loeffler. Here's what's going on elsewhere in the coaching realm, as many eyes are now on the AAC.
South Florida: USF must reboot its profile in the new-look AAC if it wants to become a more attractive candidate for power conferences. USF has big plans for its football investment, including an on-campus stadium targeted for completion in 2026. Coaches typically flock to jobs in Florida, especially one in a city like Tampa. Kelly should have a good pool of choices, which include former head coaches such as Tom Herman and Scott Frost, current FBS coaches such as Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell and Toledo's Jason Candle, rising-star coordinators who have worked in Florida, such as Tennessee's Alex Golesh and Oregon's Kenny Dillingham, and perhaps former FBS coaches-turned-assistants such as Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: A $20 million buyout is the biggest reason Brown might still return in 2023, as the team hasn't built on its Oct. 13 win against Baylor. WVU dropped its third straight game Saturday, as a disastrous fourth quarter against Iowa State led to a 31-14 defeat. The Mountaineers have been outscored 79-24 in their past two road games, against two of the Big 12's weaker teams (Texas Tech and Iowa State). A closing schedule of Oklahoma (home), Kansas State (home) and Oklahoma State (road) doesn't bode well for WVU, which must win all three to become bowl eligible. Brown is 20-24 at the school.
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis: The Tigers have been competitive during their four-game slide, entering the fourth quarter tied with UCF at 21 on Saturday. But the late-game issues that plagued Memphis during the Houston loss on Oct. 7 have persisted. Memphis has allowed 102 points in the fourth quarter this season. Silverfield should still get bowl eligible with Tulsa and North Alabama coming up, but the program's overall trajectory doesn't look great, and the candidate market could be enticing for the school.
Philip Montgomery, Tulsa: There's an increased expectation that Tulsa will move on from Montgomery unless things turn around the next few weeks. Although the team hasn't missed a bowl since 2019 and played in the AAC title game in 2020, Montgomery is in his eighth season, and it could simply be time for a new voice with the program. Plus, Tulsa's financial issues aren't as inhibiting as they once were. The candidate pool there could be strong, and includes former Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente, former Texas Tech coach Matt Wells and others.
Other situations to watch: Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo's situation will be worth watching these final few weeks. The Mids sit at 3-6 and face Notre Dame and UCF before closing out the season against Army on Dec. 10. Niumatalolo is likely headed for his third straight losing season and fourth in the past five. But his overall success at Navy makes any potential move a bit more complicated. ... Texas State coach Jake Spavital lost a game he absolutely needed as the Bobcats fell Saturday at Louisiana-Monroe. At 3-6, Texas State must sweep South Alabama (road), Arkansas State (home) and Louisiana (home) to become bowl eligible. Any loss likely means the end for Spavital, who is just 12-23 at the school. ... UNLV's Marcus Arroyo is back on the list after the team's fourth consecutive loss Saturday at San Diego State. After a 4-1 start, Arroyo looked safe for the 2023 season, but he now might need a few wins down the stretch, especially against a seemingly favorable schedule (Fresno State, Hawai'i, Nevada). ... UAB's fifth loss all but ensures interim coach Bryant Vincent won't be the permanent pick there. Keep an eye on Western Kentucky's Tyson Helton as a candidate for UAB, which will enter the AAC next season. ... Does the David Shaw conversation need to begin again? After Stanford stunned Notre Dame and edged Arizona State, things seemed to be settling down. But then the Cardinal were blown out by UCLA and again Saturday against Washington State, which ended its offensive slump by scoring 42 first-half points. Stanford must beat Utah, Cal and BYU to become bowl eligible. Shaw's salary and standing at the school likely bring him back for 2023, but things are bad on The Farm. ... After winning no more than four games in each of his first four seasons at Rice, Mike Bloomgren notched his fifth victory Thursday to move closer to bowl eligibility. The Owls are undoubtedly improved, and Bloomgren should be safe for 2023 but can ensure it with another win down the stretch (Western Kentucky, UTSA, North Texas).
Reassessing Power 5 candidates
Nebraska fired Scott Frost on Sept. 11. Arizona State dumped Herm Edwards a week later. By Oct. 2, changes had come at Georgia Tech (Geoff Collins), Colorado (Karl Dorrell) and Wisconsin (Paul Chryst).
A lot of time has passed since those moves, and while the current outlook for some jobs hasn't changed much from the initial forecast, a reset is in order. Here are snapshots of where each Power 5 opening stands now.
Nebraska
What's changed: Interim head coach Mickey Joseph won his first two games, made recruiting gains and produced a more competitive, watchable product early on. He had chances the past two weeks to really improve his chances for the permanent gig, but home losses to Illinois and Minnesota make a promotion unlikely. Still, Nebraska will make a strong push to ensure Joseph remains on staff in 2023.
Industry sources think Nebraska is targeting an external candidate, but who is it? The expected targets are Kansas coach Lance Leipold, Iowa State coach Matt Campbell, Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and Kansas State coach Chris Klieman. Matt Rhule is also available after being fired by the Carolina Panthers, and would bring a track record of success.
There are interesting options outside the top group. Army coach Jeff Monken might get a look, despite a 3-5 season this fall, after significantly improving the program during his tenure. Nebraska athletic director Trev Alberts' son, Chase, graduated from West Point, and Alberts knows Monken's work. Texas special assistant Gary Patterson, the longtime TCU coach, could be intriguing for Alberts, who has repeatedly emphasized the need for Nebraska to reestablish its toughness at the line of scrimmage. NC State's Dave Doeren also remains a candidate of interest, as he has done one of his best jobs this season and could be interested in returning to the Big Ten (Wisconsin assistant from 2006 to 2010) and the Midwest (Kansas native).
Arizona State
What's changed: Arizona State doesn't appear to be very far along in its search, at least compared to other jobs that opened in the first month of the season. Several weeks ago, the big story around ASU involved the status of athletic director Ray Anderson and what role he would have in the search after his experiment with Herm Edwards ultimately failed. University president Michael Crow, a loyal ally of Anderson despite a tumultuous few years, reiterated his support for the embattled AD, saying Anderson is "moving things forward." What does that truly mean for the coaching search? We'll find out in the next few weeks.
Sources told ESPN that Chris Howard, an executive vice president and chief operating officer at ASU, will have a significant role in the search and might direct it. Howard is the former president of Robert Morris University, and served on the CFP selection committee. He played at running back for Air Force.
This year's carousel could be retread heavy, and ASU has some options there, including Herman (Texas, Houston), Bronco Mendenhall (Virginia, BYU) and Bryan Harsin (Auburn, Boise State). ASU likely will prioritize previous college head-coaching experience in its search, but if the school looks at coordinators, few have helped themselves more this season than Dillingham, an ASU alum who grew up near campus and is very plugged into the Phoenix area recruiting scene.
Colorado
What's changed: Colorado is well into its search and has been having initial conversations with candidates for several weeks. Sources say there is a good chance Colorado wraps its search first if it hires someone not currently coaching or who can accept the job while finishing out the season elsewhere (very tough to do). Who might that person be? Mendenhall has generated buzz as a strong candidate at CU. Other than the Virginia stint, he has spent almost all of his life and career in the Mountain time zone, and he would bring instant credibility to the program. Mendenhall played and coached at Oregon State and regularly faced Pac-12 teams while at BYU. Herman also is a name to watch, as he has ties to the two states (California and Texas) that Colorado must recruit.
Several coaches having strong seasons should factor into the search. Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters, a former team captain at Colorado, has led the nation's stingiest unit this season. Would Colorado consider a former Pac-12 coach such as Jim Mora, who has done wonders during his first season at UConn, going 5-5? An emerging off-the-radar possibility could be Sacramento State coach Troy Taylor, whose team is 8-0 this season. Taylor, a standout quarterback at Cal, was a graduate assistant at Colorado in 1995.
Wisconsin
What's changed: Jim Leonhard's chances of landing the permanent job have continued to increase in recent weeks. By firing Chryst on Oct. 2, Wisconsin gave Leonhard a seven-game runway to land the job. He's 3-1 so far with an overtime loss. The Badgers are flawed but have played cleaner (and seemingly harder) under Leonhard. The team clearly likes his leadership so far. If Wisconsin beats rival Iowa this week on the road, Leonhard will move even closer to his dream job.
"It definitely was not the way that I ever would have wanted to be elevated to this position, but I'm excited that they thought enough of me," Leonhard told ESPN on Monday. "Having done it now for a number of weeks, I know I can have an impact on this place in a big way. To see how the players have responded to me and see how the fans responded to the style of play that we put on the field, it's exciting. Hopefully, I get the opportunity to be in this position long term."
But Wisconsin continues to conduct a full search, looking at a strong external candidate pool. Kansas' Lance Leipold could be at the top of the list after getting the Jayhawks bowl eligible for the first time since 2008 in just his second season there. Could Wisconsin make a push for Baylor's Dave Aranda, the Badgers' defensive coordinator from 2013 to 2016? Aranda had a great experience at Wisconsin, loved the players and the team culture, and could see appeal in returning to the Big Ten, given where the sport is heading. NC State's Doeren also could be a more interesting option, after leading Wisconsin's defense from 2006 to 2010. Athletic director Chris McIntosh is clearly leading the search, but sources have pointed to the influence of Barry Alvarez, who coached McIntosh at Wisconsin and was his predecessor as AD. Alvarez coached on defense and has always had a fondness for coaches on that side of the ball.
Georgia Tech
What's changed: Georgia Tech has a new athletic director in J Batt, who came over from Alabama. Interim coach Brent Key has made himself a noticeable candidate for the permanent job after leading the team to a 3-2 mark. Key's ACC win total matches Geoff Collins' high-water mark with the Yellow Jackets, although the remaining schedule will be tough. Until Batt arrived, Alabama's O'Brien was seen as the favorite for the job, and still should be a viable candidate. But industry sources said the Alabama link Batt and O'Brien share likely wouldn't be a major factor, as Batt is evaluating several options.
Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell continues to win -- he's 30-4 since the start of the 2020 season -- and should get a close look for the Georgia Tech job. East Carolina's Mike Houston wasn't on my initial list but could be a real factor in the Georgia Tech search. Houston is very well respected in the industry, winning an FCS national title in 2016 and improving ECU's program the past two seasons. The Pirates are 6-3 and could finish with eight or nine wins. He's 100-47 overall as a college coach. "He just wins everywhere," an ACC administrator told ESPN.
Auburn
What's changed: Not much as Auburn's search is barely a week old. But new athletic director John Cohen and the program aren't wasting time ahead of a huge decision. The name generating the most buzz is Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, followed somewhat closely by Liberty coach Hugh Freeze, whose team just beat Arkansas on the road. Some industry sources express doubt that Cohen would hire Freeze, given their time on the opposite sides of the Egg Bowl rivalry during Cohen's time at Mississippi State and Freeze's at Ole Miss. The other two buzziest candidates are Jackson State coach Deion Sanders and Rhule. Sanders would be a fascinating and bold choice, but he also would instantly become Auburn's face, voice and brand. "If you hire Deion, he's the program, he's the show," a Power 5 administrator said.
Oregon coach Dan Lanning's name has surfaced, and there could be some interest on Auburn's side especially. The Ducks simply can't afford to lose another coach after Mario Cristobal (Miami) and Willie Taggart (Florida State). Lanning on Monday said the "last thing I ever want to do is leave," and that "Oregon checks every box for me."
At this point, it's hard to see Auburn not hiring one of those top four, but Baylor offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and others remain options. Grimes helped Auburn win a national title as the team's offensive line coach in 2010 and is well-liked around the program.
Ranking the open FBS jobs
While the 2021 coaching carousel came to be defined by high-profile movement and overall volume, this year's cycle likely will be remembered for its active start as five Power 5 jobs were open within days of the calendar flipping to October.
Each vacancy presents exciting opportunities for candidates, but also clear challenges. There are no USC-LSU-Notre Dame-type jobs open yet, but all five jobs have had some national relevance in the past.
Here's a breakdown and ranking of the five open jobs, from worst to best.
6. Colorado
Former coach: Karl Dorrell | Record: 8-15 | Fired: Oct. 2
Job pros: Colorado's beautiful location, campus and stadium are among its strongest selling points, as well as a stretch of national success under coach Bill McCartney from 1989 to 1996, when the program won a national championship and had five AP top-10 finishes. With the right coaching staff, infrastructure and philosophy, Colorado can access both Texas and California for recruits and produce competitive teams in the Pac-12. Buffaloes fans will get behind a winner, and there's administrative continuity with athletic director Rick George and chancellor Philip DiStefano.
Job cons: None of the past five CU coaches has generated any consistency, preventing a generation of recruits from identifying the program as a winning destination. Colorado's financial issues have improved a bit but remain a clear challenge for any coach. George is well-regarded but needs to get the hire right and likely won't get much slack if the new coach starts slowly. The state doesn't produce a volume of FBS recruits, so Colorado always has to look elsewhere to fill out most of its roster. Colorado also has been hit especially hard by transfer portal departures and seems to have a hard time filling those spots with incoming transfers.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 45-81
Candidate to watch: Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. Colorado might be hesitant about hiring coaches with direct ties after the struggles under Jon Embree and Dorrell, but Walters' surging stock can't be ignored. He's overseeing the nation's No. 1 scoring defense at Illinois, which has quickly become a player development haven under coach Bret Bielema. Walters also has seen life away from CU and could apply those lessons to his alma mater, which needs a jolt in recruiting, schemes and overall philosophy. George might want more experience but would be foolish not to give Walters an extended look. Full list of coaches Colorado could target.
5. Georgia Tech
Former coach: Geoff Collins | Record: 10-28 | Fired: Sept. 26
Job pros: The school is in the center of arguably the nation's hottest recruiting hub in Atlanta. Georgia Tech has had stretches of national relevance, including a co-national title in 1990, five straight AP Top 25 finishes under coach George O'Leary and only two non-bowl seasons between 1997 and 2018. The team's path to success in the ACC isn't as difficult as those in some other Power 5 conferences. The new coach will arrive alongside a new athletic director, so there should be some good alignment immediately.
Job cons: Financial issues have plagued Georgia Tech while other ACC programs have accelerated their spending, and the school's history of poor coaching contracts hasn't helped close key gaps. Atlanta is an incredibly crowded and competitive recruiting scene, and Georgia Tech is often competing with programs boasting much more recent success and better resources. Although Collins tried hard to brand the program better, Georgia Tech often struggles for attention, even when winning.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 62-71
Candidate to watch: Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell. Georgia Tech seems like the most natural fit for Chadwell to land his first Power 5 opportunity. He has spent his entire career in the Southeast, and would bring a fresh approach, both with schemes and branding/marketing. As Johnson showed, Georgia Tech is often best off with distinct schemes, which Chadwell can implement after an incredible run at Coastal Carolina the past two-plus seasons. Full list of coaches Georgia Tech could target.
4. Arizona State
Former coach: Herm Edwards | Record: 8-15 | Fired: Sept. 18
Job pros: A location in the growing Phoenix market and a massive student enrollment with no major hurdles for admissions. The state has increasingly produced more Power 5 players, especially quarterbacks, and ASU also has good access to both California and Texas. Unlike other programs listed here, Arizona State has avoided prolonged down periods in its history. Coaches have won there, but just not enough. ASU has upgraded its football facilities in the past decade and has shown a willingness to build a more consistent and successful program.
Job cons: Whoever takes the job will be arriving at a very tenuous time. An NCAA investigation for alleged recruiting violations during the COVID-19 pandemic loom over the program. Athletic director Ray Anderson is still in his post, but for how much longer after his gamble with Edwards and a "new leadership model" ultimately failed? ASU is a sleeping giant that just can't be stirred. Since 1998, ASU has held an AP ranking at some point in all but eight seasons. The team has finished in the poll just four times. ASU's inability to sign the best quarterbacks from the Phoenix area is troubling.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 74-56
Candidate to watch: Former Carolina Panthers coach Matt Rhule. The Panthers fired Rhule on Oct. 10 after a 1-4 start and an 11-27 overall record. Rhule might not want to return to college football immediately, but if he does, the timing works out well. ASU and any other college program that fired its coach early would want a replacement by early December at the latest. Rhule wouldn't flinch at the challenges currently surrounding ASU, as he inherited worse at Baylor and got the team to the Big 12 championship game in his third season. If Anderson gets to make the hire, his fondness for the NFL could benefit a candidate like Rhule, who also could be in play for the Big Ten vacancies. Full list of coaches Arizona State could target.
3. Nebraska
Former coach: Scott Frost | Record: 16-31 | Fired: Sept. 11
Job pros: Few schools and states are more invested in a football program than Nebraska is with the Huskers. The willingness to fire Frost weeks before his buyout dropped by $7.5 million underscored Nebraska will spare no expense with football. The Memorial Stadium sellout streak has continued through many years without a conference championship and some without a competitive product on the field. Nebraska has by far the most national success of any current vacancy, as the Huskers won five national titles between 1970 and 1997, and finished outside the national rankings just twice between 1963 and 2001.
Job cons: Nebraska is mired in its worst stretch since the pre-Bob Devaney era in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The program doesn't resonate with recruits and their families like it used to, and lacks some of the advantages that helped coach Tom Osborne create a dynasty in Lincoln. Leadership instability has really hurt Nebraska since it joined the Big Ten, a partnership that some questioned from the very start. Nebraska had some clear recruiting hubs in the Big 12 that have been harder to establish in the Big Ten. Coaches also might be leery of a fan base that remembers the glory years and has had a hard time accepting the program's current reality.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 65-66
Candidate to watch: Kansas coach Lance Leipold. He really checks all the boxes Nebraska needs at a turbulent and critical time. He has won everywhere, dominating the Division III ranks before reviving Buffalo's program and now guiding Kansas -- by far the worst Power 5 program of the past decade -- to its first 5-0 start since 2009. Leipold also spent 13 seasons coaching in the state, including 2001 to 2003 as a Huskers assistant under Frank Solich. The Wisconsin native understands the player development piece and the values Nebraska needs to compete more consistently in the Big Ten. Full list of coaches Nebraska could target.
2. Wisconsin
Former coach: Paul Chryst | Record: 67-26 | Fired: Oct. 2
Job pros: Wisconsin has been one of the nation's most consistent programs for three decades, and ranks 11th in winning percentage since 2012. Despite the recent dip in performance, Wisconsin has a blueprint for success, rooted in player development, stingy defense and running the ball. Unlike other jobs on the list, Wisconsin needs tweaks more than an overhaul. Wisconsin has never made the four-team College Football Playoff but can realistically contend for a 12-team field. Madison and the campus are selling points in recruiting, including NIL, and fan support is strong. Athletic director Chris McIntosh played for Wisconsin and has spent his entire athletic administrative career with the program. McIntosh has pushed for some key facilities upgrades and showed with the Chryst decision that he's open to new strategies.
Job cons: The state doesn't produce a volume of elite recruits, and Wisconsin's admission standards are higher than those of many Big Ten programs. Wisconsin became a steady winner with below-average facilities and without paying huge money for its coaches. Although the program has ramped up in both areas recently, it remains a bit behind the Big Ten's elite programs. Expectations have been raised after a run of Rose Bowls and Big Ten championship game appearances, but might be unrealistic given the changes in the sport and within the Big Ten.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 98-40
Candidate to watch: Interim coach/defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard. He's not a typical interim coach, simply holding a spot until the new leading man can be hired. Leonhard had been pegged as Chryst's successor, as he became one of college football's best defensive coordinators despite no on-field coaching experience before joining the UW staff in 2016. He's the embodiment of what Wisconsin can be, a walk-on from the state who became a three-time All-America selection and played a decade in the NFL. Leonhard also likely would bring fresh eyes to Wisconsin's recruiting efforts. McIntosh has given him a seven-game runway to secure the permanent job. Full list of coaches Wisconsin could target.
1. Auburn
Former coach: Bryan Harsin | Record: 9-12 | Fired: Oct. 31
Job pros: Despite all the dysfunction around Auburn, coaches can win big there when the pieces are aligned. Auburn won a national title in 2010, played for another in 2013 and reached the SEC championship game in 2017. Other than Georgia, Auburn is the SEC program with the most direct access to the fertile Atlanta recruiting region, and has shown it can access Florida and Georgia for top players, as well as compete within its own state of Alabama. Auburn has been ahead of many others with name, image and likeness, and could move into a new $92 million performance center next month. Although the team is set to finish outside the Top 25 for the third straight year, that hasn't happened since 1978. Auburn has the location, booster base and desire to be a regular contender.
Job cons: A former SEC assistant once said that Auburn is the worst good job in college football. The booster situation is complex, often fractured and virtually impossible for a coach to unite. Auburn is a great place for coaches to collect buyouts after they're fired, but not the ideal spot to build sustained success while asking for a bit of patience along the way. The school fired Gene Chizik two years after he won a national title, and dumped Gus Malzahn a year after his team finished No. 14 nationally. Expectations quickly get out of whack, and as long as Nick Saban walks the sideline in Tuscaloosa, Auburn will be a distant No. 2 in its own state. I considered putting Wisconsin ahead of Auburn -- even though the recruiting/NIL situation is significantly easier at Auburn -- because the environment can become so toxic.
2023 recruiting class ranking: Outside top 40
Record since 2012: 80-56
Candidate to watch: Liberty coach Hugh Freeze. Although Ole Miss' Lane Kiffin is viewed as the frontrunner for the Auburn job, Freeze might be the better fit for the long run. Freeze embraces the recruiting piece and would use Auburn's NIL program to his advantage. He has a known track record of producing exciting and effective offenses, first at Ole Miss and now at Liberty. Before Liberty, Freeze had spent his entire career in the SEC footprint. He has the personality to connect with Auburn fans and possibly bring together the power brokers around the program. His new contract at Liberty likely wouldn't prevent a move to Auburn. Freeze was unhirable in the SEC for a while after his downfall at Ole Miss, but more than five years after his resignation, a return makes more sense. Full list of coaches Auburn could target.