In a word, Week 2 of the college football season was ruthless. If you had a weakness to uncover, an insecurity to exploit, Week 2 exploited it.
If you have an offense you haven't modernized in years, and you haven't developed a particularly good quarterback in a decade (Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher, Iowa's Kirk Ferentz) ...
If you have a defense that quietly fell apart in the offseason while you were spending all your time fixing your special teams and close-game woes (Nebraska's Scott Frost) ...
If you're a young head coach taking on a big job with an even younger offensive coordinator and a redshirt freshman at quarterback (Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman) ...
... then Week 2 didn't work out too well for you. If you're named Wisconsin, West Virginia, Virginia, Missouri or Northwestern, it didn't either.
Week 2 was so packed with madcap games and confusing results that we should step back and make sense of what we saw. Which particularly disappointing/resounding performances were signs of impending doom/glory, and which were just funky? What's real and what's fake two weeks into a wacky 2022?
(Note: While I referenced Ferentz and Iowa above, there's nothing about the Hawkeyes below because there's very little about their ongoing offensive disaster that is surprising at this point.)
Alabama is probably fine
Bryce Young escapes the blitz for a big first down, leading to Alabama's game-winning field goal.
It has felt for a while that we're in a particularly predictable time for college football. Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma all put together long runs of dominance in their respective conferences rather recently, and Georgia seems to have become a second Alabama. But the first Alabama is still the primary reason for said predictability. In an era with scholarship limits and massive spending, it's not supposed to be possible to finish in the AP top 10 for 14 straight years, spend at least part of 15 straight years at No. 1 and win five national titles. Nick Saban taught the college football world how to build a proper, uncertainty-killing juggernaut, and he still steers his better than pretty much anybody.
And yet ... in three of their past four games against power-conference opponents, Saban's Crimson Tide nearly lost to Auburn, lost to Georgia and, on Saturday, nearly lost to Texas. As with the Auburn game, Bama looked completely lost for most of three quarters and needed late-game magic from quarterback Bryce Young to survive. And of course, there was the what-if of Quinn Ewers' clavicle injury -- Texas' starting quarterback began the game 9-for-12 for 134 yards before he was knocked out of the game. Maybe Bama's defense would have adjusted and shut him down if he stayed in, but maybe not. Maybe Texas wins comfortably with Ewers at the helm.
The vultures are circling at the moment ... but I can't join them, at least not yet. The Iron Bowl similarities certainly rang some alarm bells, but the Tide blew out Georgia the week after that near loss. We could very much look back on the Texas game as a "You should have gotten them while you had the chance" situation, and for three reasons.
1. The disastrous penalty situation probably won't happen again. After committing an average number of penalties against Utah State in Week 1, the Tide committed a Saban-era record 15 for 100 yards in Austin. False starts, offsides, a strange number of face masks ... it was jarring, but it's also early in the season. Last year, Bama averaged 8.8 penalties through its first four games, then 6.5 from there. In 2020, it was 6.8 in the first four, then 5.7.
2. We knew the receiving corps would be an issue at first. There were quite a few drops and instances of miscommunication between Young and his receivers Saturday, but that's not surprising considering Young lost five of last year's top six targets. His leading receivers thus far are junior Traeshon Holden and freshman Kobe Prentice -- Holden was last year's No. 8 target, and Prentice was playing for the Calera (Alabama) High Eagles this time last year. Improvement is required, but considering the potential of the players involved, it's also likely.
3. We knew the cornerback corps could be an issue too. With both of last year's starters gone, this was the biggest question mark for the Bama defense coming into the game. Sophomore Kool-Aid McKinstry committed multiple pass interference penalties, and Ewers had completed passes of 46, 22, 17 and 14 yards (and nearly completed another bomb to Xavier Worthy) in the first quarter alone. With ULM and Vanderbilt up next on the Tide's schedule, the secondary will get some time to jell. Maybe it will be an issue all year, but I can't say that with confidence.
Wisconsin is ... probably fine? Mostly?
Washington State 17, No. 19 Wisconsin 14
Wisconsin was a 17-point favorite welcoming Washington State to town, but the Badgers and Cougars ended up playing one of the strangest games of a strange day. Wisconsin drove into Wazzu territory eight times but scored just twice, missing two field goals, turning the ball over on downs, punting from the Cougs' 37 and finishing the game with a pair of lost fumbles. Wazzu gained just 253 yards but came away with a stirring 17-14 upset.
Since the start of 2017, Wisconsin is now 33-3 when gaining at least 400 yards. Before Saturday the only other two losses were to a brilliant Ohio State team in the 2019 Big Ten championship game and to Illinois in that same season.
The Illinois loss was extremely similar to Saturday's affair: Wisconsin outgained the Illini by triple digits and made nine trips into Illinois territory but missed a field goal, settled for three more and turned the ball over multiple times in scoring position. The Badgers still went on to win the Big Ten West that season.
This isn't to say they have no issues to worry about. Their run game is strangely all-or-nothing -- Braelon Allen ripped off a spectacular 96-yard touchdown against Illinois State, but he and Chez Mellusi have otherwise averaged just 4.0 yards per carry -- and quarterback Graham Mertz is still Graham Mertz, endlessly capable of alternating between short stretches of brilliance and long stretches of mediocre play. (Also of concern to Wisconsin is the matter of Minnesota looking like a genuine West contender.) But if nothing else, the recipe for Wazzu's upset is not one that future underdogs in Madison will be able to replicate very easily.
Texas A&M's old problems are its new problems (but Saturday was weird)
Appalachian State 17, No. 6 Texas A&M 14
In my SEC West preview, I noted that when Texas A&M loses, the quarterback is usually why. In the 14 losses Jimbo Fisher suffered as the Aggies' head coach heading into 2022, his quarterback had played reasonably well in two of them. The other 12 losses produced an atrocious 106.6 passer rating.
Haynes King in Saturday's loss to App State: 105.7 passer rating. He completed 13 of 20 passes (65%) but at only 7.5 yards per completion, and including two sacks, he averaged just 4.2 yards per attempt.
It still took some oddities for A&M to lose on Saturday, however. Against a Mountaineers attack that had lit up North Carolina in Week 1, the Aggies' defense allowed only 3.8 yards per play. But while ASU's Chase Brice was just 8-for-20 passing on first and second down, he was 7-for-9 on third down. App went 9-for-20 on third-down conversions and 3-for-5 on fourth down; A&M: 2-for-8 and, of course, 0-for-0. (Fisher doesn't do "fourth-down attempts.")
Throw in an otherworldly kick return touchdown for A&M's Devon Achane, and you've got a unique recipe: App State snapped the ball 80 times to A&M's 38. The Aggies began the second half with a six-play drive, then got only 12 snaps the rest of the way. App State won nearly every single one of the game's key plays and was able to play keep-away because of it.
It was a brilliant performance for the guys from Boone, North Carolina, but as with Wazzu's win, it wasn't particularly sustainable. Defense and Achane alone could result in A&M playing top-10 or top-15 ball the rest of the way. Of course, the Aggies' remaining schedule features six games against teams in the SP+ top 25, including each of their next four opponents. Avoiding yet another four-loss (or worse) season will require high-level quarterback play that we don't tend to see from Texas A&M (and certainly didn't on Saturday).
Notre Dame needs an offensive spark, and fast
Marshall 26, No. 8 Notre Dame 21
Marshall finished 51st in SP+ last season, and the Thundering Herd are in the top 60 again at the moment. Because they're good but, in theory, not too good, I figured they were a perfect opponent for finding out if Notre Dame's offensive issues last week were due to an awesome Ohio State defense or actual in-house issues.
On Saturday, Notre Dame averaged 4.7 yards per play, Fighting Irish backs averaged 2.9 yards per carry and two quarterbacks combined to throw three interceptions, including the upset-clinching pick-six.
The verdict is pretty clear.
Notre Dame did move the chains 22 times, thanks primarily to the work of tight end Michael Mayer and receiver Lorenzo Styles -- they combined to catch 15 of 23 balls for 172 yards and a touchdown, plus Styles had a 22-yard rush -- but the 51 plays that didn't involve them gained just 157 yards (3.1 per play).
Sound the alarm bells. Since succeeding Brian Kelly last winter, head coach Marcus Freeman has lost his first three games, dating to last season's Fiesta Bowl. The defense hasn't been perfect by any means -- the Irish have been extremely bend-don't-break and haven't created nearly as much havoc as expected up front -- but for a team averaging only 15.5 points per game, it's clear where the issues lie.
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has been remarkably conservative through two games, but since completing a 54-yard pass to Styles on the first play of the season, Tyler Buchner is averaging just 6.5 yards per dropback. He's 85th in Total QBR, hardly the stuff an aggressive playcaller desires, and seven Drew Pyne pass attempts netted just 14 yards including a sack. Buchner left the game with a shoulder injury, which took away Notre Dame's best rushing option. The offense is a mess and might get even worsen if Buchner has to miss time. Oh, and the next opponent on the schedule, Cal, ranks 24th in defensive SP+, 33 spots ahead of Marshall.
Kansas' offense is legit
It's obviously too early to get too much value out of a player stat like Total QBR; TCU's Max Duggan, after all, currently leads the nation, and with all due respect to his game, it would be quite a shock if he ended the season first.
Still, there are plenty of big names near the top of the leaderboard at the moment, from USC's Caleb Williams (second) to Ohio State's C.J. Stroud (sixth) to Georgia's Stetson Bennett (eighth) to Alabama's Bryce Young (10th). And smack in the middle of those names, in third place at the moment, is Kansas' Jalon Daniels.
Daniels and the Jayhawks moved to 2-0 on Saturday with a 55-42 overtime road win over West Virginia. (How did they win by double digits in OT? By scoring first, then ending the game with a pick-six.) Down 21-7 early, Kansas ripped off a 35-10 run and led by double digits in the game's final minutes before WVU scored 11 late points to send the game to OT. But Daniels connected with sophomore Quentin Skinner for a touchdown in OT, and Cobee Bryant's pick-six ended it. Daniels' final stat line: 219 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, 85 rushing yards and no sacks or turnovers.
Daniels took over as the starter last November, with the Jayhawks already 1-7 and ranking 118th in offensive SP+. After a blowout loss to Kansas State, KU upset Texas and lost to TCU and West Virginia by only a combined nine points. In 2022, Daniels is completing 70% of his passes and averaging 7.6 yards per carry, and KU is up to 67th in offensive SP+ and rising quickly. They're still a long shot to reach a bowl because the Big 12 is so deep -- only one of KU's final 10 opponents ranks outside the SP+ top 50 -- but Lance Leipold's culture building has taken hold, and he's got the quarterback he needs to do some damage.
Missouri's offense is legitimately problematic
Eliah Drinkwitz's offense loves to nibble. Short passes to the left, handoffs, short passes to the right, rinse, repeat.
In his first two years as the Tigers' head coach, Missouri passers -- mostly Connor Bazelak, who is now starting for Indiana -- completed 67% of their passes (12th in FBS over that span) but averaged just 7.2 air yards per attempt (eighth lowest) and 10.4 yards per completion (11th lowest). Brady Cook saw time behind center late in the season and added rushing capabilities, but he averaged just 7.5 yards per completion.
In theory, there is sound logic behind a good, horizontal passing game. If you can stretch opponents from sideline to sideline and give opposing linebackers too much to handle, you can open up holes for your running backs between the tackles, and eventually you can wrong-foot safeties and go deep. But Mizzou has only averaged 1.4 deep shots (in this case, passes 30 or more yards downfield) per game in Drinkwitz's tenure. Only 16 teams have averaged fewer.
Against Kansas State on Saturday in stormy Manhattan, we got to see what happens when Cook has to press. It wasn't pretty. Missouri running backs averaged a ghastly 1.5 yards per carry against a dominant Wildcat front, but a solid defensive effort kept Mizzou within 20-6 in the third quarter. Cook went deep and was picked off by Kobe Savage. Then he got picked off again. Then veteran Jack Abraham subbed in and threw interceptions on two of three passes (including another deep ball). Kansas State began three straight drives in Mizzou territory and eventually pulled away, 40-12. Star receiver recruit Luther Burden: two touches for nine yards.
At 13th in defensive SP+, K-State has one of the best defenses Missouri will face this season, but five of the Tigers' 10 remaining opponents currently rank 32nd or better. Even if the Tigers defense continues to improve, Mizzou will need some chunk plays and easy points to reach bowl eligibility. Does Mizzou have a quarterback who can get the ball in potential playmakers' hands downfield?
Illinois' defense is outstanding (again)
In Ryan Walters' first season as Bret Bielema's defensive coordinator at Illinois, the Fighting Illini leaped from 88th to 32nd in defensive SP+. They lost just enough at linebacker and in the secondary to make you wonder if they could avoid some regression in 2022.
To say the least, early returns are positive. Illinois ranks 10th in success rate allowed, 11th in three-and-outs forced per drive (42%) and 17th in points allowed per drive (0.8). Opponents have scored just 32 points in three games, and the Illini are 2-1 and up to 23rd in defensive SP+.
Now, holding Wyoming's destitute offense to 6 points doesn't say much, and allowing 23 to Indiana might actually feel like an indictment. But Saturday we saw maybe the most impressive defensive performance of the short Bielema era. Virginia's Brennan Armstrong has been one of college football's most productive QBs since the start of 2021, but he went just 13-for-32 for 180 yards and two interceptions against Illinois, taking five sacks and averaging just 3.8 yards per dropback. Virginia gained 124 yards on three big plays and just 98 in 62 other snaps, and Illinois pitched a shutout after UVA's first drive of the game.
Let's put it this way: Since 2009, only two teams have beaten a power-conference opponent by at least 21 points while turning the ball over four times and gaining fewer than 400 yards. Wisconsin did it to Iowa in 2017, and Illinois did it to Virginia on Saturday. If that doesn't describe all of Illinois' current assets and liabilities -- and the Big Ten West vibes that Bielema is attempting to establish -- all at once, I don't know what would.
Wait and see on Duke ... but so far, so good
As is always the case, SP+ has whiffed on a few teams early on. I'm very proud of the accuracy of SP+ preseason projections, but there are always some misses.
Three teams have overachieved projections by an average of at least 21 points per game through two games: the Sun Belt's James Madison and South Alabama (seriously, the SBC has just been amazing so far) and Mike Elko's Duke Blue Devils. In Week 1, they were projected to beat Temple by 5.9 and won, 30-0. On Saturday in Evanston, they were projected to lose to Northwestern by 10.2; barely one quarter in, they were up 21-0.
Duke quarterback Riley Leonard began Saturday's game 7-for-8 for 144 yards, and the Blue Devils threatened to run the Wildcats right out of Ryan Field. But it got harder from there. Leonard completed just six of his last 16 passes, and Northwestern slowly climbed back into the game. With less than 20 seconds left and the Wildcats down 8, NU's Evan Hull -- who had a ferocious day, as you'll see below -- charged toward the end zone but was stripped at the Duke 1. Duke's Brandon Johnson recovered in the end zone, and the Blue Devils survived.
The near-collapse distracted us a bit from how impressive the win was. Duke is 2-0 for the first time since 2018, which also happened to be the last season David Cutcliffe led the team to a bowl game. They lost 23 of their last 29 games in the Cutcliffe era, and their SP+ ranking was a dreadful 113th in 2021.
They're still only 103rd two weeks into 2022. It takes a little while to climb. But their run game ranks 20th in rushing success rate, and Leonard's explosive 9.9 yards per dropback rank seventh in FBS. Elko astutely hired spread old hand Kevin Johns to freshen up the Blue Devils' attack, and it's working so far. Duke should put up big numbers and beat North Carolina A&T in Week 3, and while the Devils are still long shots for bowl eligibility, their last nine games feature five opponents currently 65th or worse in SP+. They'll be able to take a few swings at wins 4-6. Considering they were projected to barely win three at the beginning of the season, this is a huge turnaround. Let's see how long they can continue to overachieve.
Utah State has regressed right on past the mean
First things first: Weber State's defense is excellent. The Big Sky, like the Mountain West, has countless teams with "shutdown defense with just enough offense to get by" identities, and the fact that WSU frustrated Utah State's attack should not be surprising in the slightest.
WSU did more than frustrate Utah State, though. The defending MWC champs got blown out of the water Saturday evening, averaging just 3.8 yards per play and losing, 35-7. Logan Bonner threw three interceptions, Calvin Tyler Jr. averaged just 3.6 yards per carry ... nothing worked. WSU's offense turned the ball over three times and only mounted a couple of decent drives after the first quarter, but USU's offensive self-destruction gave the Wildcats opportunities to score on drives of 5, 33 and 42 yards.
Three weeks into the season, after facing a broad array of opponents -- UConn, Alabama, Weber State -- the Aggies are a dismal 129th in points per drive (only New Mexico State and, of course, Iowa are lower) and 113th in success rate. Bonner went 20-for-29 for 281 yards and three TDs against UConn, but is just 15-for-40 for 159 yards and the three picks since.
Back in my MWC Mountain preview, I noted that SP+ was not at all high on Utah State this season despite last year's conference title run. The Aggies were abnormally successful in close games (4-0 in games decided by one score), and the recipe they rode to success in 2021 -- lots of big plays and strong red zone defense -- was going to be particularly hard to replicate with last year's biggest big-play weapons gone.
This turned out to be pretty prescient analysis, but SP+ wasn't projecting a 28-point loss to Weber State. Regression to the mean was likely; a collapse of this nature was not. With a bye week and a Week 4 home game against UNLV, a livelier than expected UNLV but still, Blake Anderson's squad could reset and get back on track. But yikes.
Week 2's biggest overachievers and underachievers
Here are the offenses that overachieved their projected scores (per SP+) the most in regulation. (Consequently, we have the defenses that underachieved the most here as well.)
Incarnate Word (vs. Nevada): +31.1 (23.9 projected points, 55 actual points)
Oregon (vs. Eastern Washington): +30.6 (39.4 projected, 70 actual)
Georgia Southern (vs. Nebraska): +29.2 (15.8 projected, 45 actual)
Cincinnati (vs. Kennesaw State): +21.7 (41.3 projected, 63 actual)
Louisiana Tech (vs. Stephen F. Austin): +21.4 (30.6 projected, 52 actual)
In the end, defense doomed Scott Frost's tenure in Lincoln. It was the best unit the Huskers had in 2021, but Nebraska managed to allow 528 total yards to Northwestern in Ireland in Week 0 and 642 to Georgia Southern on Saturday night. The Wildcats and Eagles combined to average just 36.9 points per game last season; they scored a combined 76 on Nebraska this year.
Here are the offenses that underachieved projections (and the defenses that overachieved) the most.
Utah State (vs. Weber State): -26.9 (33.9 projected points, 7 actual points)
Virginia (vs. Illinois): -25.3 (28.3 projected, 3 actual)
Nicholls State (vs. ULM): -25.2 (32.2 projected, 7 actual)
Georgia (vs. Samford): -23.7 (56.7 projected, 33 actual)
Texas A&M (vs. Appalachian State): -22.7 (36.7 projected, 14 actual)
Georgia's offense underachieving?? Do the Dawgs have an Achilles' heel??? No, they just called off the dogs, so to speak.
Georgia scored 30 in the first half, with Stetson Bennett completing 20 of 29 passes for 252 yards in the process; the Bulldogs were almost perfectly on pace to hit the projections but brought in the subs and managed just a field goal in the second half. I'm a little bothered by the fact that 14 second-half rushes gained just 50 yards, but "our backups didn't do very well late in a blowout" is a prime first-world concern. I'm not going to pretend this is a problem for the Dawgs just yet, especially if they're going to continue passing at this level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
We're attempting an experiment this season: What happens if I award the Heisman every single week of the season and dole out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, etc.)? How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
In Week 1, Georgia's Stetson Bennett won the Heisman with a nearly perfect performance against Oregon. With Georgia playing Samford in Week 2, it offered a different player a chance to take the prize.
1. Caleb Williams, USC (20-for-27 for 341 yards and four TDs vs. Stanford)
2. Bryce Young, Alabama (27-for-39 for 213 yards and one TD, plus 38 rushing yards vs. Texas)
3. Derek Parish, Houston (six tackles for loss and four sacks vs. Texas Tech)
4. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (18-for-29 for 219 yards and three TDs, plus 85 rushing yards vs. West Virginia)
5. Evan Hull, Northwestern (31 touches for 278 yards and two TDs vs. Duke)
6. Raheim Sanders, Arkansas (27 touches for 186 yards and two TDs vs. South Carolina)
7. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (16-for-24 for 351 yards and four TDs vs. Arkansas State)
8. Jordan Addison, USC (seven catches for 172 yards and two TDs vs. Stanford)
9. Taulia Tagovailoa, Maryland (27-for-31 for 391 yards, four TDs and one INT vs. Charlotte)
10. Garrett Shrader, Syracuse (20-for-23 for 287 yards and three TDs vs. UConn)
Young's brilliant 20-yard run, in which he squatted to avoid a full-speed blitzer and scrambled downfield to set up Will Reichard's winning field goal, was the Heisman moment of the week. But with Young struggling through three quarters, Williams gets the overall nod and the 10 points for Week 2.
Two weeks in, we can already see how messy (and fun!) this is going to be. Adding last week's point totals to the mix, we get this leaderboard:
17 points: Bryce Young (Alabama)
16 points: Caleb Williams (USC)
10 points: Stetson Bennett (Georgia)
9 points: Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State)
8 points: Derek Parish (Houston)
7 points: Jalon Daniels (Kansas) and Drake Maye (North Carolina)
6 points: Evan Hull (Northwestern) and Anthony Richardson (Florida)
5 points: Raheim Sanders (Arkansas)
4 points: C.J. Stroud (Ohio State) and Tory Taylor (Iowa)
3 points: Jordan Addison (USC) and Braelon Allen (Wisconsin)
2 points: Taulia Tagovailoa (Maryland) and Jacoby Windmon (Michigan State)
1 point: Todd Centeio (JMU) and Garrett Shrader (Syracuse)
My 12 favorite games of the weekend
Eastern Kentucky converts on the 2-point conversion to complete the upset over Bowling Green in the seventh overtime.
Yes, this is supposed to be a top-10 list. But I couldn't bear the thought of not ranking two of these games.
2. Appalachian State 17, Texas A&M 14
3. Oregon State 35, Fresno State 32
5. Texas Tech 33, Houston 30 (2OT)
8. Eastern Kentucky 59, Bowling Green 57 (7OT)
10. Kansas 55, West Virginia 42
11. Georgia Southern 45, Nebraska 42
12. Marshall 26, Notre Dame 21
You know it was a good week when neither a Hail Mary finish (Holy Cross-Buffalo) nor a seven-OT marathon finishes in the top six.
If you had three screens going early Saturday evening, you could have had an overtime game going on each simultaneously. But well after Tennessee-Pitt and Texas Tech-Houston ended, EKU-BGSU just kept going.
Bowling Green had erased a 14-point deficit with a late 21-0 run, but Eastern Kentucky scored on the final play of regulation and finally broke serve with a 2-point conversion stop and a scoring pass in the seventh OT possession. It was shocking to see that the game lasted only 4 hours and 26 minutes. It felt like OT alone lasted that long.