College football bowl projections after Week 2, including playoff and New Year's Six matchups

The schedule for Week 2 seemed tame enough, but when the teams took the field, we ended up with some wild results. Marshall over Notre Dame. Appalachian State over Texas A&M. Alabama squeaking past Texas by the narrowest of margins.

It all made for some major shake-ups in the bowl picture. ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are back with their latest projections for all the games, including their analysis of the CFP picture and which teams helped and hurt their cause the most over the weekend.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Georgia vs. USC
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Clemson

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Alabama

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: All it took was the reigning Heisman Trophy winner to pull a rabbit out of his hat on Alabama's final drive to avoid mass chaos -- and even with that, a new element of unpredictability crept into the college football season in Week 2. From a playoff standpoint, it's hard to argue against Georgia being the most deserving team for the No. 1 slot. After that ... flaws. We'll keep the Tide at No. 2 for now with the understanding that losing to Texas would have been a disaster and Alabama must be viewed as less of a sure thing than it was 48 hours ago. Ohio State's win against Notre Dame is less impressive after the Irish's loss to Marshall, but the Buckeyes are still solidly in the top four. The No. 4 spot is up for grabs and will likely change with the wind, but USC lands there after a pair of encouraging performances by its offense (to go with eight takeaways from its D).

Schlabach: My top four teams remain unchanged, although the order has shifted. Defending national champion Georgia moves into my No. 1 spot, after Alabama nearly lost at Texas. The Crimson Tide looked as undisciplined as any Nick Saban team I've seen, piling up 15 penalties for 100 yards. Alabama was also plagued by dropped passes, and its receivers are struggling to get open. Georgia had its way with FCS foe Samford 33-0 but looked rather uninspired with reserves on the field in the second half. Ohio State was dominant in a 45-12 victory over Arkansas State, and Clemson remains my fourth team for now, with Michigan right on its heels.

New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Miami vs. Michigan State

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Arkansas

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Miami vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Texas vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Utah
Schlabach: Michigan vs. USC

Team that helped its cause the most

Bonagura: There isn't a world in which Marshall has a realistic shot at the playoff. The New Year's Six, though? Why not? The Herd went to Notre Dame, beat the Irish and have given themselves a chance to play out a special season. The obvious warning label applies -- it's early! -- but no team in college football improved its stock as much as Marshall in Week 2.

Schlabach: Kentucky had won 10 games in a season only once since 1950 before Mark Stoops arrived. Stoops has guided the Wildcats to 10 wins twice, in 2018 and 2021, and seems headed there again. The Wildcats were impressive in a 26-16 victory at Florida on Saturday night. The Kentucky defense held Anthony Richardson in check and forced two turnovers. Florida had only 12 first downs and went 4-for-16 on third down. The Wildcats have difficult SEC road games at Ole Miss and Tennessee ahead, but at least they get Georgia at home on Nov. 19.

Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: Florida Atlantic vs. Kent State

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Old Dominion

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Houston

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: BYU vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UCLA vs. Air Force
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Alabama vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Florida
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Texas A&M

Team whose stock took the biggest hit

Bonagura: After beating Utah to start the season, Florida was in a good spot. Talking CFP might have been a stretch, but it wasn't out of the question and the Gators had a relatively favorable schedule over the first half of the season to build some momentum. That all ended at home against Kentucky. The Gators should still have a good season under first-year coach Billy Napier, but hopes of a special season seem to be gone.

Schlabach: There's a reason Texas A&M hasn't won a national title since 1939. The Aggies can't get out of their own way. For the second straight season, Texas A&M seems headed toward being one of the most overrated teams in the FBS. The Aggies' offense was abysmal in their stunning 17-14 loss to Appalachian State at Kyle Field. Texas A&M had 186 yards of offense against a defense that surrendered 567 in a 63-61 loss to North Carolina the week before. The Aggies had only nine first downs and ran only two offensive plays inside Mountaineers territory before their final drive. Jimbo Fisher is supposed to be one of the best offensive minds in the game -- that's why the Aggies paid him $90 million -- but his offense looks stale and outdated.

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Washington State vs. Wyoming

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. Middle Tennessee State

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Toledo
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: UAB vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. SMU
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. UCF

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Army vs. Houston
Schlabach: Washington vs. Louisiana

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Memphis vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Central Michigan vs. UAB

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Northern Illinois

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Marshall