Two things become more certain about the college football calendar every year:
1. We'll get ourselves all worked up all offseason, yelling about the dire state of college football and the latest conference realignment saga (or College Football Playoff expansion -- or both). We will hem and haw about the future of the game and how everything's falling apart.
2. The games will start, and we'll fall in love all over again.
The first week of the 2022 season was just fantastic. Sure, it would have been even better had the top two teams in the polls (Alabama and Georgia) not been quite so resounding in asserting their dominance, but for those of us who talk about how it's the journey that matters most, and not the (national title) destination, Week 1 was pretty good evidence. North Carolina-Appalachian State, Florida State-LSU, Houston-UTSA, Florida-Utah ... there were so many great games that Illinois-Indiana, with its own wild and intense ending, didn't even make my top 10.
Week 2 tends to bring about a letdown after the big-game fire hose of the opening weekend, and to be sure, there aren't quite as many must-follow games this week. But there is a lot to follow in SEC Land, plus we've got a (future) Big 12 brawl in Provo and some intriguing games for intriguing risers in the Pac-12.
Let's dive into everything you need to follow in Week 2.
All times Eastern.
What can Texas do to actually hurt Alabama?
No. 1 Alabama at Texas (noon, Fox)
First things first: Top-ranked Alabama looked spectacular last week against Utah State, the Bama offense has been either the best or nearly the best in the country for four straight years, and the Texas defense has ranked in the top 30 in defensive SP+ just once in the past seven years. The Horns were 86th last year, and while they held ULM to 10 points (7 coming in garbage time) and 4.0 yards per play in Week 1, it's not an insult to the Warhawks to point out that they aren't the Crimson Tide.
It's difficult to imagine Texas getting enough stops to win this game. But we are still going to learn a lot -- about Quinn Ewers, about the Horns' capabilities in the Big 12 race, about Bama's defensive ceiling, about a lot of things -- when Texas has the ball.
It took a couple of years and some plot twists, but the mulletacious Ewers' long-awaited debut as Texas' starting quarterback was a pretty successful one. He went 16-for-24 for 225 yards, two touchdowns, an interception and a sack as the Longhorns scored 52 on ULM. You aren't going to learn too much from a game like that, but there have certainly been worse first impressions.
What worked against ULM almost certainly won't on Saturday, however ... and what didn't work will really need to.
Here's Ewers' pass chart from Saturday:
Ewers did a large portion of his damage on short or horizontal passes, going 7-for-7 on passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage and, as you see above, 8-for-9 for 107 yards (118 after catch) on passes thrown short and to the left. A few of those passes went to tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders, who lined up just about everywhere and finished with a lovely six catches, 85 yards and a touchdown.
Ewers was just 4-for-10 on passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, however, and 0-for-3 over 20 yards. (All three of those long passes targeted last year's leading receiver, Xavier Worthy.) And when UT was behind schedule, things fell apart: Before garbage time, the Horns enjoyed a 67% success rate on standard downs -- first downs, second-and-7 or less, third- or fourth-and-4 or less -- and a ghastly 21% on passing downs. One week into the season, they rank seventh in the former category and 114th in the latter. And they weren't facing Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner and the Bama pass rush last week.
Those short, quick passes probably aren't going to average more than 13 yards per completion this week, and as good as he is, Bijan Robinson probably won't average 7.1 yards per carry either. Even against a terrifying pass rush, Ewers must find at least a little bit of success passing downfield.
Utah State's Logan Bonner admirably tried to test Alabama's new cornerback corps (Kool-Aid McKinstry, Eli Ricks, Terrion Arnold and Khyree Jackson) downfield last week, attempting five passes more than 15 yards downfield and along the sideline. He completed one such pass, to Maryland transfer Brian Cobbs against Arnold on the first play of the game, but went 0-for-4 after that. Overall, Aggies quarterbacks were 8-for-22 for 57 yards.
Nick Saban's defenses are as good as any at forcing college quarterbacks to make throws college quarterbacks usually can't make. Ewers' arm earned him almost perfect recruiting rankings in high school, though. We'll see what coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns' offense were holding in reserve while beating ULM with easy passes, and more importantly, we'll see if it works. Bama is a big favorite for a reason, but we'll certainly get a read for just how much upside the Longhorns are working with offensively.
Current line: Bama -20 (up from -18.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Bama by 18.9 | FPI projection: Bama by 12.8.
The computers think Sark's Horns could make this one at least slightly interesting. But that will require Ewers to do big things.
Who wins the bare-knuckle brawl in Provo?
No. 9 Baylor at No. 21 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
In boxing, they say styles make fights. In this one, styles could make for an absolute brawl. This might be my favorite game of the week. No matter who has the ball, you'll be watching two of the country's most experienced lines going at it; when BYU has the ball, you'll be watching two of the country's best too.
Baylor's defensive front is almost immovable, and in Tulsa transfer Jaxon Player, the Bears added one of the most disruptive 300-pounders in the country. Meanwhile, on the road against what was supposed to be a remodeled and improved South Florida last week, BYU ripped off four runs of at least 12 yards in the first quarter alone while bolting to a 38-0 lead. The Cougars had 337 yards (8.6 per play) at halftime before shifting into cruise control and winning 50-21.
These are two of the most physical teams in the country, but if the Bears and Cougars neutralize each other in the trenches, the game could be decided by, well, everything else. Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen was damn near perfect in last week's 69-10 romp over Albany, going 17-for-20 for 214 yards in just one half of work. He hit speedsters Hal Presley and Monaray Baldwin on a pair of deep balls and otherwise slung short, accurate passes from sideline to sideline. If there was a concern, it came in pass protection -- Shapen took two sacks, and Albany's 32% pressure rate was much higher than Baylor would like to see, especially against FCS competition.
BYU achieved a perfect 50-50 run-pass balance on first downs against USF, and while quarterback Jaren Hall did little damage on the ground (four carries for 16 yards after averaging 8.3 yards per carry in 2021), he completed 25 of 32 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Christopher Brooks (13 carries, 135 yards) looked great filling Tyler Allgeier's shoes, and receiver Puka Nacua gained 98 yards and scored twice in just four touches. Both Nacua and Gunner Romney are banged up and listed as game-time decisions. I assume they go, but if you're thinking about laying down a wager, you might want to find out the latest on their status.
Current line: BYU -3 (no movement since Sunday) | SP+ projection: BYU by 1.5 | FPI projection: Baylor by 2.6.
Home-field advantage is basically what separates these teams. What a lovely statement win this will be for one of them.
How good is Tennessee, really?
No. 24 Tennessee at No. 17 Pitt (3:30 p.m., ABC)
It was pretty jarring to realize that (a) my SP+ ratings made me uncomfortable with how much they liked Tennessee this offseason (the Vols came into the season ranked 10th), and (b) SP+ still drastically underestimated the Vols in Week 1. It projected them as favorites of 31.1 points against Ball State last Thursday night, and the Vols won by 49. They led by double digits seven minutes in and were covering before halftime.
Is Ball State amazing? No. But that was baked into the projections Tennessee exceeded.
Now comes a completely different test. Pitt beat the Vols in Knoxville last season in the last game before Hendon Hooker took over as Tennessee's starting quarterback. (Hooker subbed in and went 15-for-21 for 188 yards, plus 49 rushing yards.) Tennessee is a lot more with-it now, but the game's in Pittsburgh. Pat Narduzzi's Panthers might be a perfect early test for an ambitious team -- good enough to beat you if you're not as good as you hope you are, but perhaps not good enough to brush aside a really good team's A-game. West Virginia landed a few more blows than expected in last Thursday's Backyard Brawl, but the Panthers survived 38-31 thanks to Kedon Slovis' 308 passing yards and an incredibly well-timed pick-six from M.J. Devonshire.
Pitt played at one of the slowest tempos in the country last week and created lots of havoc against WVU (eight tackles for loss, nine passes defensed). Tennessee played at a ridiculously high tempo against BSU -- this is a Josh Heupel team, after all -- and forced the issue on defense but missed a lot of tackles. Pitt attempts controlled chaos, and Tennessee just takes the regulator off and starts swinging. If the Vols overachieve projections like they did last Thursday, they're going to win pretty comfortably, and we might have to come to grips with living in a world in which Tennessee genuinely has its act together. It's been a while. Let's see if it comes to pass.
Current line: Vols -6 (no movement since Sunday) | SP+ projection: Tennessee by 7.1 | FPI projection: Tennessee by 1.4.
Finally, SP+'s adoration of the Vols gets a serious test.
Which impression was the accurate one for USC's defense?
No. 10 USC at Stanford (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Just about everything went as planned for the extremely new-look USC Trojans in their 66-14 blowout of Rice on Saturday. Caleb Williams went 19-for-22 for 249 yards and rushed for 71 yards, USC scored on every drive until the fourth quarter and seven players touched the ball at least four times.
The defense ... was good for a half. Rice gained 218 yards in the first half (133 on the ground) and scored twice, and if not for a 93-yard USC pick-six, this easily could have been something like 24-21 at halftime. The second half went great -- Rice gained just 62 yards and threw two more pick-sixes -- and USC cruised, but for as good as the offense will be, the Trojans' season will be determined primarily by whether the first- or second-half defense shows up more often.
David Shaw's Stanford Cardinal, who have finished 60th or worse in SP+ for three straight years and plummeted to 105th last season, left a similarly mixed impression Saturday against Colgate. Blue-chip sophomore E.J. Smith raced 87 yards for a touchdown on the game's first play, but Stanford stumbled for a bit, muffing one punt, losing a fumble, then muffing another punt for a Colgate score.
Once the Cardinal stopped handing the ball directly to the Raiders, they cruised 41-10. Tanner McKee went 22-for-27 for 308 yards and two touchdown passes to Michael Wilson, and the Cardinal did what they were supposed to do to a Patriot League school, outgaining Colgate 8.6 yards per play to 3.7. If the early glitches go away, they could test the physicality of USC's defense and teach us a lot about both teams. Just last year, Stanford roughed up USC in Week 2 to such a degree that USC fired Clay Helton. But the Cardinal probably can't afford any early mistakes.
Current line: USC -8.5 (down from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: USC by 9.4 | FPI projection: USC by 9.2.
I did not expect the line to move in this direction. SP+ is likely still underselling the Trojans' offense but now has them covering regardless.
Jockeying for position in the SEC
South Carolina at No. 16 Arkansas (noon, ESPN)
No. 20 Kentucky at No. 12 Florida (7 p.m., ESPN)
While every conference had some big games in Week 1, the Big Ten stole the early spotlight, giving us a pair of nip-and-tuck weeknight games (Penn State over Purdue, Indiana over Illinois) before Ohio State-Notre Dame took over on Saturday evening. It gave us plenty of morbid entertainment, as well, in the form of Iowa-South Dakota State.
Now the SEC takes over. Two of the three biggest games of the week from a rankings standpoint (Bama-Texas, Baylor-BYU, Tennessee-Pitt) involve two SEC teams and a future SEC team; meanwhile, we've got a pair of humdingers in conference play. After huge Week 1 wins, both Arkansas and Florida have to avoid home hangovers against physical and interesting (and, in Kentucky's case, ranked) foes.
Absences could determine the outcomes -- or at least, the betting outcomes. Arkansas could be without a pair of key defensive backs (safety Jalen Catalon, nickel Myles Slusher), and Kentucky might still be without running back Chris Rodriguez Jr., who missed UK's win over Miami (Ohio) due to suspension. Both Arkansas coach Sam Pittman and Kentucky's Mark Stoops have been predictably coy about whether their guys will play.
Rodriguez is exactly the type of mean, physical back that Florida would not want to face if it is indeed battling a bit of a hangover after last week's emotional and physical win over Utah. But the Wildcats still have running back Kavosiey Smoke, and more importantly they still have quarterback Will Levis, who threw for 303 yards and three touchdowns in last week's blowout win. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson, replacing Wan'Dale Robinson as Levis' go-to, caught six passes for 136 yards against the RedHawks.
Really, these games are most noteworthy for their quarterbacks.
• Levis has worked his way into "Top 10 in the 2023 NFL draft?" conversations. He thrived on passing downs last year and did so again last Saturday.
• Florida's Anthony Richardson came through in the clutch against Utah, completing 71% of his passes and rushing for three scores (and a super-sexy 2-point conversion) in the Gators' 29-26 win.
• Arkansas' KJ Jefferson threw for 226 yards and three scores and rushed for 56 yards and another score as the Hogs kept their distance in a 31-24 win over Cincinnati in Fayetteville.
• South Carolina's Spencer Rattler ... still has a big arm, at least. He was under constant pressure against Georgia State, taking three sacks, facing a dreadful 34% pressure rate and averaging only 9.9 yards per completion in a 35-14 win. The Gamecocks needed a pair of blocked-punt touchdowns to turn a 6-point lead into a comfortable win, and I'll go out on a limb and assume that's not a sustainable recipe, even when your head coach is named Beamer.
If the Gamecocks line can protect Rattler, he could do some damage against a damaged secondary. But Arkansas sacked Cincy's Ben Bryant three times; if Rattler is uncomfortable in the pocket again, the Hogs could roll.
Current lines: Arkansas -8 and Florida -6 (minimal movement since Sunday -- Arkansas was -8.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 8.5 and Florida by 0.4 | FPI projection: Arkansas by 8.6 and Florida by 1.6.
The computers aren't accounting for Rodriguez's absence ... but leaning toward Kentucky is still tempting.
Is Arizona good now?
Mississippi State at Arizona (11 p.m., FS1).
If there's something that running a predictive measure like SP+ has taught me, it's that you should try as hard as possible not to overreact to a Week 1 surprise. Make the surprising team surprise you twice.
I'm putting two Pac-12 teams in the "Make them do it twice" box this week. Oregon State jumped on Boise State early, posted an easier-than-expected 34-17 win over the Broncos and sure looked the part of a surprise Pac-12 contender. Now the Beavers have to play on the road against a talented Fresno State team. And even more noteworthy, against a San Diego State team that beat them by 24 in Tucson last year, Jedd Fisch's Arizona Wildcats jumped on top of the Aztecs and kept waling away, winning 38-20 and outgaining them, 6.2 yards per play to 4.0. The new transfer tandem of quarterback Jayden de Laura and receiver Jacob Cowing looked excellent, and while SDSU's offense is admittedly limited (to put it nicely), the Arizona defense looked genuinely fast and aggressive.
Of the five best bets I shared last week, picking SDSU -6 was the only one I missed. And I'm picking against Arizona this week, too. Make the Wildcats surprise me twice.
This is a great prove-it game for the Wildcats, but it's also a hell of a late-night opportunity for Mike Leach's Bulldogs. Mississippi State was projected 20th in SP+ and has already jumped to 12th following a 49-23 drubbing of Memphis. Quarterback Will Rogers was untouchable, throwing for 450 yards and five touchdowns, and while the aggressive Bulldogs defense gave up a 50-yard run and a 43-yard pass, you're happy to take a couple of gashes when you're (a) up 35-3 early in the third quarter and (b) otherwise allowing 4.1 yards per play. Starting cornerbacks Emmanuel Forbes and Decamerion Richardson allowed a combined 2-for-5 passing for 17 yards as primary coverage guys against the Tigers. We will find out exactly what Cowing and the Arizona receiving corps have to offer.
Current line: MSU -10.5 (up from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: MSU by 22.3 | FPI projection: MSU by 10.7.
If Arizona consolidates the break and shows well, the Wildcats could end up one of the biggest turnaround stories we've seen in a while.
My favorite bets
In lieu of a weekly college football Best Bets group column this season, I'm sharing my five favorite bets of the week here. We went 3-1-1 last week (70%). Let's keep it rolling.
Kent State at No. 7 Oklahoma: under 72.5 points (7 p.m., ESPN+). This one's a matter of principle. Last year, games that had point totals listed over 68 went under 76% of the time. The tempo of this one is going to bump the point total up, but here's where I show faith in Oklahoma to make enough stops to keep it under.
No. 10 USC at Stanford: under 67.5 points (7:30 p.m., ABC). Of the past 10 Stanford games, only one has topped 65 points. Neither USC nor Stanford operates with any tempo whatsoever. SP+ is probably still underselling USC's offense in projecting a 34-25 Trojans win, but make it 41-25, and it's still an under.
Mississippi State (-10.5) at Arizona (11 p.m., FS1). Step 2 of the "Underestimating Arizona" project. SP+ thinks the Bulldogs win big; if they don't, Arizona's ranking will look a lot different on Sunday.
No. 19 Wisconsin (-17) vs. Washington State (3:30 p.m., Fox). Last week, SP+ nailed the Wisconsin-Illinois State game (it had Wisconsin by 37.1, and the Badgers won 38-0) and dramatically oversold Wazzu (projected to win by 27.5, the Cougs won just 24-17). It's projecting a 34-10 Badgers win, and that has my attention.
UTSA (-2.5) at Army (noon, CBSSN). This is a tricky road trip for the Roadrunners, and I felt better when it was UTSA -2. But UTSA was statistically superior to Houston last week and was unfortunate not to close that one out. Army was strangely all-or-nothing in last week's loss to Coastal Carolina -- the Black Knights scored TDs of 70, 54 and 73 yards but otherwise averaged 3.3 yards per play -- and UTSA is athletic enough to pull ahead if Army isn't controlling the ball and the clock.
Week 2 playlist
In addition to everything above, here are some games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday night
Louisville at UCF (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). Louisville blew loads of opportunities in a blowout loss to Syracuse last week and really needs to rebound quickly to keep the "Scott Satterfield hot seat?" headlines at bay. UCF, with its up-tempo horizontal passing game, the chaotic John Rhys Plumlee at QB and an intense and attacking defense, might have something to say about that. Current line: UCF -5.5 (down from -6 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: UCF by 10.9 | FPI projection: UCF by 11.1.
Early Saturday
Missouri at Kansas State (noon, ESPN2). Missouri's remodeled defense controlled the line of scrimmage nicely in an easy win over Louisiana Tech, but now comes a stiffer test. By August, Kansas State had become every football writer's sleeper Big 12 pick -- which meant the Wildcats weren't sleepers anymore -- because of the prospect of great line play and a backfield that features running back Deuce Vaughn and quarterback Adrian Martinez. This is a lovely early test for both teams (and one the books and computers think K-State will handle). Current line: KSU -7.5 (down from -8.5) | SP+ projection: K-State by 8.2 | FPI projection: K-State by 4.0.
Duke at Northwestern (noon, FS1). Northwestern overachieved SP+ projections by 17 points in a Week 0 upset of Nebraska. Duke overachieved by 24 points in a shutout win over Temple. One game does not a trend make, but a win for either of these teams could get a rebound season rolling. My guess: It's more likely that Northwestern is for real. Current line: Northwestern -10 (up from -8 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Northwestern by 10.2 | FPI projection: Northwestern by 7.2.
No. 23 Wake Forest at Vanderbilt (noon, SECN). With the way the past three seasons have gone for Vanderbilt (the Commodores went a combined 5-28 from 2019 to 2021), a 2-0 start is a really big deal in Nashville, even if those two wins came against a dismal-looking Hawai'i and Elon of the FCS. Getting to 3-0 will be a challenge, though. Sam Hartman is returning to captain a unique and prolific Wake offense, which has caused the line to lurch in the Demon Deacons' direction. But if the Wake defense hasn't improved since last year, Vandy, with its 52.5 points per game and 7.7 yards per play, could keep up for a while in a track meet. Current line: Wake -12.5 (up from -6 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wake by 15.3 | FPI projection: Wake by 4.2.
Saturday afternoon
No. 25 Houston at Texas Tech (4 p.m., FS1). It just feels right that these teams will be playing each other again as conference foes in the near future. But in the present tense, Houston needs to raise its game pretty significantly from a shaky but eventually clutch performance against UTSA last week. Tech is super-prolific even with quarterback Tyler Shough injured again. Backup Donovan Smith might be just as good. Current line: Tech -3 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Texas Tech by 4.9 | FPI projection: Texas Tech by 5.5.
Iowa State at Iowa (4 p.m., BTN). The game deemed ¡El Assico! by the college football internet has extreme oddity potential this year. Iowa gained just 173 yards against ISU last year but won comfortably because of four Cyclones turnovers. A year later, Iowa is coming off a genuinely pathetic offensive performance against South Dakota State, but the defense is as nasty and turnover hungry as ever. Can Iowa State, led by exciting new starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers, kick a six-game rivalry losing streak? Current line: Iowa -3.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Iowa by 2.7 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.9.
Appalachian State at No. 6 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). Texas A&M's offense was inefficient but ridiculously explosive -- Haynes King: 18.2 yards per completion -- while its defense was mostly impenetrable in a 31-0 win over Sam Houston. The Aggies probably have far too much athletic ability for Appalachian State too, but at some point sketchy blocking and offensive inefficiency could become an issue. The sooner they rectify that, the better. Current line: A&M -19 (up from -16.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: A&M by 21.5 | FPI projection: A&M by 13.2.
Marshall at No. 8 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC). Marshall is an almost perfect opponent for Notre Dame following the Fighting Irish's surprisingly defense-heavy 21-10 loss to Ohio State last week. Is the Notre Dame offense a genuine problem this year, or was Ohio State just too dominant up front? Is the Irish defense really going to be as bend-don't-break as we saw in Columbus, or will it be more aggressive against less elite attacks? We'll find out against a Marshall team with plenty of athleticism and cohesion ... but less than what the Buckeyes bring to the table. Current line: Irish -20.5 (up from -19 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Notre Dame by 16.4 | FPI projection: Notre Dame by 17.6.
Washington State at No. 19 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., Fox). Braelon Allen is 6-foot-2, 235 pounds and capable of things like this:
96 YARDS. 😱@BraelonAllen x @BadgerFootball pic.twitter.com/TgjGjGIcNF
— Wisconsin On BTN (@WisconsinOnBTN) September 4, 2022
I'm not sure what Wazzu has to offer here, but keep tabs on this game just because of Allen. Current line: Wisconsin -17.5 (same as Sunday) | SP+ projection: Wisconsin by 24.0 | FPI projection: Wisconsin by 21.9.
Saturday evening
Arizona State at No. 11 Oklahoma State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2). After winning big as a defense-and-power-rushing unit, Oklahoma State got its receivers healthy and aired the ball out last week, beating Central Michigan 58-44 and showing as much defensive downside as offensive upside. Now the Pokes welcome an ASU team capable of literally anything this year. Riding big plays to a surprising Pac-12 championship game bid? Finishing 4-8 because of extreme inconsistency? I'll believe anything from the Sun Devils. Current line: OSU -11 (up from -10.5 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 5.8 | FPI projection: OSU by 11.3.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (8 p.m., ACCN). Two upset victims look to get right. Boston College was dreadfully inefficient in a 22-21 loss to Rutgers, while Virginia Tech showed both more upside and more glitch potential while losing to Old Dominion. The Hokies appear to have an edge because of defense, and the loser might be in for a very long season. Current line: Tech -2.5 (down from -3 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Va. Tech by 4.6 | FPI projection: Va. Tech by 0.4.
Old Dominion at East Carolina (6 p.m., ESPN+). One team that pulled a home upset of an ACC foe last weekend versus another one that should have. ODU's upset of Virginia Tech was nearly derailed by terrible offensive inefficiency, but the Monarchs proved excellent at pouncing on mistakes. As ECU proved in its narrow loss against NC State, the Pirates have immense upside but are capable of plenty of mistakes. Current line: ECU -12.5 (up from -10 on Sunday) | SP+ projection: ECU by 9.7 | FPI projection: ECU by 11.8.
Late Saturday
Oregon State at Fresno State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). If Oregon State is indeed ready to exceed expectations and make a Pac-12 run, the Beavers will hold serve at Fresno. But Jeff Tedford's Bulldogs have enough upside to screw up the Beavers' plans. Current line: Oregon State -1 (up from even on Sunday) | SP+ projection: Fresno by 4.5 | FPI projection: OSU by 0.7.
Smaller-school showcase
Finally, let's always save a shoutout for football at levels below FBS. Here are three huge games you should crack open the laptop for this weekend.
Division III: No. 1 Mary Hardin-Baylor at No. 6 Wisconsin-Whitewater (1 p.m., local streaming). After legendary head coach Pete Fredenburg retired following another national title, UMHB began the Larry Harmon era with a 49-point win over No. 11 Muhlenberg. Now comes a stiffer test: a trip to Whitewater to face the team that beat UMHB in the 2019 playoffs (and kept it from a streak of three straight fall national titles).
Division II: No. 1 Ferris State at No. 17 Lenoir-Rhyne (1 p.m., local streaming). Ferris State began the season with a closer-than-expected win over Central Washington, leading by only 7 at halftime before winning 36-20. Now the defending national champions get an even stiffer test, heading down to Hickory, North Carolina, to face a Lenoir-Rhyne team that went unbeaten at home last season.
FCS: South Dakota at No. 2 Montana (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). Can't wait until Saturday evening for the BYU-Baylor rock fight? Consider this one part of the undercard. Montana and South Dakota both boast stout and aggressive defenses, and Montana might return the best players for challenging North Dakota State at the FCS level this season. South Dakota made nine tackles for loss in last week's loss to Kansas State and could spring an upset if it can keep the Grizzlies' offense moving backward.