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College football bowl projections after Week 1, including playoff and New Year's Six matchups

The 2022 college football season is underway, with Week 1 seeing a few surprises and some tradition powers flexing their muscles in their typical way. Georgia made a statement with its rout of Oregon, Alabama did its usual thing and Ohio State answered its top-five challenge by getting past Notre Dame.

With one week in the books, ESPN college football reporters Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach present their bowl projections, including their analysis of the CFP picture and which teams helped and hurt their cause the most over the weekend.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
Jan. 9, Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
Dec. 31, 4 or 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ohio State vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Georgia

CFP breakdown

Bonagura: Considering how much talent Georgia lost from last year's championship team, we had to allow for the possibility there would be some regression, but after watching the Bulldogs completely demolish Oregon -- and former defensive coordinator Dan Lanning -- in their opener, it's hard to imagine how any team except Alabama could be favored against them. So, until there is a compelling reason to believe otherwise, I'm fully expecting an Alabama-Georgia national title rematch. Ohio State was my pick to play the Tide last week, but despite a double-digit win against No. 5 Notre Dame, it simply wasn't a convincing performance.

Schlabach: Defending national champion Georgia and Alabama were dominant in blowouts of Oregon and Utah State. Both offenses are explosive and the Bulldogs' rebuilt defense looked just as stout as the one that led them to their first national title in 41 years last season. Ohio State was in a good fight with Notre Dame, which is probably exactly what coach Ryan Day wanted in his team's opener. The Buckeyes' high-flying offense wasn't hitting on all cylinders, so they had to win with a strong running game and defense. Oklahoma replaces Clemson for the fourth spot, as the Tigers are still too unbalanced, with a great defense and mediocre offense.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Miami vs. Notre Dame

Dec. 31

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Baylor
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Baylor

Jan. 2

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Houston

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan vs. USC
Schlabach: Michigan vs. USC


Team that boosted its standing the most

Bonagura: For playoff purposes, I wouldn't point to any team outside the preseason conversation that really did anything to change their standing. Most of the really good performances featured teams against overmatched opposition, so it's hard to learn much. That said, because USC was such an unknown with all its transfers following Lincoln Riley's arrival, it was notable that the Trojans put up 66 points -- their most in a single game since the Pete Carroll era. At the same time, it was against Rice, so there aren't any meaningful proclamations to be made.

Schlabach: Like Georgia, Michigan was supposed to take a step back after losing so many of the players that led them to a CFP semifinal appearance in 2021. But the Wolverines also look like they simply reloaded, at least in a 51-7 rout of Colorado State. Michigan's defense, which lost All-American Aidan Hutchinson, Daxton Hill and David Ojabo to the NFL draft, had seven sacks and one interception. DJ Turner returned a fumble 45 yards for a touchdown. About the only thing that could slow this team down is a bonafide quarterback controversy. And, well, that's exactly what Michigan seems to have with the unorthodox way Jim Harbaugh is handling Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy.


Bowl season

Dec. 16

HomeTown Lenders Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
11:30 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UAB vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: FAU vs. Kent State

Duluth Trading Cure Bowl
Exploria Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Coastal Carolina vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Central Michigan

Dec. 17

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m., ESPN and the ESPN App
Bonagura: Duke vs. Houston
Schlabach: Virginia vs. UCF

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Nevada vs. BYU
Schlabach: North Texas vs. San Diego State

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
3:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Washington vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Cal vs. Boise State

LendingTree Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. Troy
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. BYU

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UCLA vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: UCLA vs. Arkansas

Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
9:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Stanford

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Georgia State vs. UTEP

Dec. 20

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Buffalo
Schlabach: Utah State vs. Toledo

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Marshall
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. Louisiana

Dec. 21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Appalachian State

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. SMU
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati

Dec. 23

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Army vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Army vs. Washington

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
6:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: Old Dominion vs. UAB

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTSA vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Air Force

Dec. 26

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
2:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Northern Illinois

Dec. 27

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. South Alabama

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tulane vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Liberty

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Time TBD, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arizona vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Mississippi State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Maryland
Schlabach: TCU vs. Purdue

Dec. 28

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCF
Schlabach: Louisville vs. SMU

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. LSU

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Oregon

TaxAct Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Ole Miss

Dec. 29

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Minnesota

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Miami vs. Texas
Schlabach: NC State vs. Oklahoma State

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Utah
Schlabach: Texas vs. Utah


Team whose stock took the biggest hit

Bonagura: Utah. Had the Utes picked up a road win at Florida, they would have had the nonconference win necessary to boost their chances for a playoff spot at the end of the year. Instead, they'll need to be perfect the rest of the way to remain a serious member of the conversation. The odds of that happening are slim. Such is life in the Pac-12.

Schlabach: The two biggest hits from Week 1 probably both occurred in the Pac-12. While Utah's loss at Florida was disappointing, Oregon's no-show against Georgia was even worse. The Ducks had no answers for Georgia's offense, which scored touchdowns on each of its first seven possessions, converted its first nine third-down plays and went 6-for-6 in the red zone. It was only Dan Lanning's first game as a head coach, and things will get better in Eugene, but it wasn't the start he needed. Lanning is sticking with quarterback Bo Nix for now, but his second interception against Georgia looked all too familiar from his inconsistent career at Auburn.


Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
Noon, ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: NC State vs. Purdue
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Maryland

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Florida State vs. Oregon
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. Oregon State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Florida State vs. South Carolina

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio)

Dec. 31

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
Noon, ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Florida

Jan. 2

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Michigan State vs. LSU
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Kentucky

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m., ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Florida
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Tennessee