College football has only a handful of elite teams, but the actual field of contenders to finish in the selection committee's top four this fall runs deep -- at least according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, which gives 19 teams more than a 1% chance of making a College Football Playoff semifinal.
Only seven of those teams have at least a 1% chance of winning the national title.
The teams ranked lower can certainly beat the odds -- Michigan and Cincinnati are recent proof. Last year, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gave Michigan a lowly .05% chance to reach the playoff, trailing Cincinnati, which had a .3% chance. Georgia entered the season with a 28% chance to reach a semifinal and a 4% chance to win the national title. Alabama, of course, had a 73% chance to reach the CFP last year.
With that in mind, here's a deeper dive into this year's CFP contenders, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, starting with the teams with the best chance to make the playoff:
Ohio State
Last year's record: 11-2
2022 chance to make playoff: 83.1%
2022 chance to win national title: 27.3%
Toughest test: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan. It's not going to be easy, but it's quite possible the Wolverines could be undefeated heading into Columbus for their biggest game of the regular season.
What the committee will like: The star power on what should be the nation's top offense -- again. A Heisman-caliber quarterback has been a consistent trait among past CFP contenders, but it doesn't stop at C.J. Stroud. Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could also play his way into the Heisman conversation, and running back TreVeyon Henderson gives the Buckeyes another powerful option.
What the committee won't like: Home losses to crossover opponents from the Big Ten's West Division. The good news? If Ohio State were to lose to Wisconsin or Iowa, it could have a chance to redeem itself in the Big Ten title game. The bad news? Ohio State shouldn't lose to either of those teams at home if it's a top-four team.
Alabama
Last year's record: 13-2
2022 chance to make playoff: 79.7%
2022 chance to win national title: 30.1%
Toughest test: The SEC championship game. The reality is Georgia is the Tide's toughest opponent, but that's assuming these teams win their respective divisions and meet again in the conference championship. Three of Alabama's most difficult regular-season games are on the road -- at Texas, Arkansas and LSU.
What the committee will like: Heisman hopefuls on both sides. Alabama might have the best offensive player in Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young and the best defensive player in linebacker Will Anderson Jr.
What the committee won't like: This would be a shocker, but if Alabama were to lose at Texas and not win its division, it would be tough for the committee to justify a top-four finish. A two-loss team has never made the playoff, but it's an entirely different conversation in the meeting room if a two-loss team is also a conference champ.
Georgia
Last year's record: 14-1
2022 chance to make playoff: 75.2%
2022 chance to win national title: 24.3%
Toughest test: See: Alabama. There's simply nobody on Georgia's schedule who can challenge it like Bama in the SEC championship game, if that's where the Bulldogs wind up. The most difficult regular-season game will be Nov. 19 at Kentucky, and ESPN's FPI still gives the Bulldogs an 83.3% chance to win.
What the committee will like: Georgia's tight ends. This might be the best tight ends unit in college football, with Brock Bowers, Arik Gilbert and Darnell Washington. The key is keeping them healthy.
What the committee won't like: A loss to Oregon. Yes, it can be overcome, and a one-loss SEC champ will finish in the top four. But ... Georgia would almost certainly have to win the SEC -- which it didn't do last year. Without the Oregon win, Georgia's nonconference résumé includes Samford, Kent State and Georgia Tech. It would need the SEC title to overcome that.
Clemson
Last year's record: 10-3
2022 chance to make playoff: 58.2%
2022 chance to win national title: 10.4%
Toughest test: Nov. 5 at Notre Dame. Winning the Atlantic Division isn't going to be easy -- especially with back-to-back games against Wake Forest and NC State, though the Tigers get the Pack at home. The trip to South Bend will trump both of those, though ESPN's FPI still gives Clemson a 60% chance to win.
What the committee will like: A 4-0 nonconference record. If Clemson can snag wins against Notre Dame and rival South Carolina -- which could be two CFP Top 25 teams -- it can garner serious consideration for a top-four finish if it finishes with one loss. If the Tigers' only loss was to NC State or Wake and they didn't win the Atlantic Division, this scenario could keep them in the conversation, depending on what happens elsewhere. Beating Notre Dame, South Carolina and Miami -- plus a win against another ranked Atlantic Division opponent -- would still impress the committee.
What the committee won't like: Poor quarterback play. DJ Uiagalelei did not throw for more than 241 yards in a game last season and finished with more interceptions (10) than passing touchdowns (9).
Notre Dame
Last year's record: 11-2
2022 chance to make playoff: 17.9%
2022 chance to win national title: 1.7%
Toughest test: Sept. 3 at Ohio State. Is there any bigger initiation stage for first-year Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, a former linebacker for the Buckeyes and native of Huber Heights, Ohio? ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State an 83.5% chance to win. If Freeman somehow pulls off the win -- without injured starting wide receiver Avery Davis -- it might be the biggest win of the season.
What the committee will like: The No. 13 strength of schedule. With road trips to Ohio State, North Carolina, and USC -- plus neutral-site games against Navy (Baltimore) and BYU (Las Vegas) -- this is a lineup tailor-made to impress the committee.
What the committee won't like: No conference championship. This is something the Irish are well aware of and have embraced, but they also know without a conference championship game to play in, they can only afford one loss -- to a respectable team, as opposed to a flop against an unheralded opponent. A conference championship is one of several tiebreakers the committee uses when determining between comparable teams, which makes it difficult for the Irish to elbow out a one-loss Power 5 champ for a top-four spot.
Michigan
Last year's record: 12-2
Chance to make playoff: 17.6%
Chance to win national title: 1.5%
Toughest test: Nov. 26 at Ohio State. It's the only regular-season game ESPN's FPI doesn't think the Wolverines will win, giving Ohio State an 84.8% chance. This is a must-win en route to the conference championship. In 2018 and 2021, it was a winner-take-all for the East Division. The Big Ten East winner has won the entire conference every season during the CFP era (8-0).
What the committee will like: An Oct. 1 crossover win at Iowa. Kinnick Stadium has been unforgiving to Michigan, as the Wolverines have lost four in a row at Iowa -- all by eight points or fewer (one possession). They haven't won in Iowa City since 2005, and with the Buckeyes still looming, they certainly can't afford to continue that streak.
What the committee won't like: The nonconference schedule. Wins against Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn -- programs that combined for a 10-27 record last year -- aren't going to help Michigan win any debates against another Power 5 contender with the same record and a marquee nonconference win.
Texas
Last year's record: 5-7
Chance to make playoff: 17.4%
Chance to win national title: 1.6%
Toughest test: Sept. 10 vs. Alabama. ESPN's FPI loves Texas because of the offensive talent it returns, and this is the only game it doesn't give the Longhorns more than a 50% chance to win. This is the true barometer of how wide the gap is between Texas and the playoff.
What the committee will like: A Big 12 title. Sounds obvious, but Texas hasn't done it since 2009, the program's longest drought in school history. The committee would overlook a loss to Bama if the Longhorns can beat the likes of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor en route to a league title. It could mean the difference in a debate against a one-loss Notre Dame that doesn't have a conference title.
What the committee won't like: Besides another loss to Kansas? More subpar defense. Yes, the committee has absolutely forgiven lousy defense in the past (See: 2018 Oklahoma), but the Sooners had the No. 1 offense in the nation to compensate for it. Texas has allowed at least 400 yards per game in each of the past three seasons, including last year's 426 yards per game -- the fifth most in program history. Last year's run defense ranked 114th in the FBS, allowing 202 yards on the ground per game, plus 5.2 yards per carry -- the second worst in school history.
Oklahoma
Last year's record: 11-2
Chance to make playoff: 11.3%
Chance to win national title: 0.9%
Toughest test: Oct. 8 vs. Texas. The Sooners get both Baylor and Oklahoma State at home, so this neutral-site game against their rival remains the biggest coin toss. If OU doesn't win, it still has to face the two teams that played for the league title last fall.
What the committee will like: A more balanced team. With offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby reuniting with quarterback Dillon Gabriel, and a veteran defensive staff in coach Brent Venables and coordinator Ted Roof, Oklahoma could be progressing toward a more complete team in spite of the offensive star power it lost.
What the committee won't like: Unconvincing wins against unheralded opponents. Last fall, OU beat Tulane 40-35. It needed a last-second field goal to beat West Virginia at home. And the Sooners trailed Kansas by double digits twice. Not every game has to be a lopsided win, but OU has to leave no doubt it's the better team against unranked opponents.
Miami
Last year's record: 7-5
Chance to make playoff: 8.8%
Chance to win national title: 0.5%
Toughest test: Sept. 17 at Texas A&M. This will indicate how seriously to take Miami as a contender under first-year coach Mario Cristobal, and a win would also give the Canes a résumé booster that will last the entire season.
What the committee will like: Road wins. In addition to the early trip to A&M, Miami plays at Virginia Tech and at Clemson -- two extremely difficult venues. These trips could either propel the Canes into the top four or knock them out of the conversation entirely. The Nov. 19 crossover game at Clemson could be a sneak preview of the ACC championship game.
What the committee won't like: An 0-2 record against both the Aggies and Clemson. Yes, Miami could redeem a regular-season loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game if they win their respective divisions, but there's not enough on the rest of the schedule for a two-loss ACC champ to finish in the top four without some chaos elsewhere.
Utah
Last year's record: 10-4
Chance to make playoff: 7.2%
Chance to win national title: 0.4%
Toughest test: Sept. 3 at Florida. It's a tricky trip to the Swamp, and ESPN's FPI gives the Gators a slight edge to win at 52.1%. A Utah win, though, would resonate through Selection Day and give the Utes some wiggle room in conference play.
What the committee will like: No divisions. The Pac-12 scrapped the North and South Divisions, effective immediately, so its two best teams are guaranteed to face each other in the conference title game. While it's possible Utah faces Oregon in a familiar North-South duel, the new rule opens the door for Utah to play USC in a rematch and potentially redeem itself for a regular-season loss. Of course, it could also work the other way. Regardless, the Pac-12 winner has a better chance to get a résumé boost from its title game.
What the committee won't like: The No. 64 strength of schedule. This is the lowest of any of the contenders listed here. Without a win against the Gators, Utah's nonconference schedule includes Southern Utah and San Diego State. It's going to need the selection committee to rank at least Oregon and USC in its Top 25.
Oklahoma State
Last year's record: 12-2
Chance to make playoff: 4.0%
Chance to win national title: 0.2%
Toughest test: Oct. 1 at Baylor. The Big 12 title game all over again. Only this time the defending conference champion Bears will have home-field advantage.
What the committee will like: Road wins. If the Cowboys can win at Baylor, on the road against what should be a sneaky-good Kansas State team, and at Oklahoma, they should be headed toward another appearance in the Big 12 title game.
What the committee won't like: Unconvincing wins and poor quarterback play. Both were trouble spots last year for the Cowboys. Eight of their games were decided by one possession, including wins against Missouri State, Tulsa and Boise State. They also need to get more consistency from Spencer Sanders, who has turned the ball over 40 times since 2019 (31 interceptions, nine fumbles). Oklahoma State needs a strong start against Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.
LSU
Last year's record: 6-7
Chance to make playoff: 3.2%
Chance to win national title: 0.2%
Toughest test: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama. ESPN's FPI gives Alabama an 81.5% chance to win, and while LSU will have home-field advantage, this will reveal how much work first-year LSU coach Brian Kelly has to do before the Tigers are a true contender in the SEC.
What the committee will like: A November to remember. If LSU can upset Alabama and follow with a road win at Arkansas -- before punctuating its résumé with a win at Texas A&M -- it will be proof the football gods are real.
What the committee won't like: No improvement on defense. LSU has allowed 30.2 points (11th in the SEC) and 427 yards per game (12th in the SEC) over the past two seasons. Kelly hired defensive coordinator Matt House, who was on the Kansas City Chiefs' coaching staff the past three seasons, to fix it.
Michigan State
Last year's record: 11-2
Chance to make playoff: 2.2%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Oct. 8 vs. Ohio State. ESPN's FPI gives the Buckeyes an 83.1% chance to beat the Spartans on their home turf, but projects Michigan State to be undefeated heading into that game.
What the committee will like: A Sept. 17 road win at Washington. Michigan State has lost 12 consecutive true road games against Pac-12 opponents, its last win dating back to 1957 at Cal. What if Michigan State's only loss of the season is a close one to Ohio State or Michigan, keeping the one-loss Spartans out of the Big Ten championship game? A Power 5 nonconference road win is the way to stay in the debate -- especially if Washington has a respectable season.
What the committee won't like: Only one big win. Last year, the selection committee ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State in spite of its 37-33 head-to-head win. Why? The committee simply thought Michigan was the better team, and ultimately Michigan State didn't do enough to prove it wrong. While Michigan State still ranked among the top 21 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency, Michigan was better (No. 4 in total efficiency). It's a reminder CFP contenders have to look the part, and Michigan State lost to Purdue and was blown out by Ohio State (56-7). That win against Michigan was its only win against a CFP Top 25 opponent.
Auburn
Last year's record: 6-7
Chance to make playoff: 2.1%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Nov. 26 at Alabama. ESPN's FPI gives the Tide an 89.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: The No. 1 strength of schedule. Auburn faces Georgia and Alabama, the two teams that played for the national title last year -- on the road. Yikes.
What the committee won't like: A Sept. 17 home loss to Penn State. It's highly unlikely Auburn will survive the SEC schedule without a loss, so the Tigers need to beat the Nittany Lions for a 4-0 nonconference record to give their résumé a boost and provide a cushion heading into league play. Without a win against Penn State, Auburn's nonconference schedule includes Mercer, San Jose State and Western Kentucky. The Tigers also open the season with five straight home games, and if they can beat PSU and LSU, they should be undefeated heading to defending national champion Georgia.
Texas A&M
Last year's record: 8-4
Chance to make playoff: 2.0%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Oct. 8 at Alabama. As if this game needed any more drama, the coaches provided it this spring when Nick Saban took a shot at Jimbo Fisher's use of NIL for his No. 1 recruiting class. Fisher called a news conference and fired back in what was one of the most jaw-dropping rants by a college coach ... ever. They both have said repeatedly it's over. No big deal. Meanwhile, nobody else can seem to forget it.
What the committee will like: The No. 6 strength of schedule. The Aggies get a hall pass for Sam Houston State and UMass, because finishing with one loss against a grueling lineup that includes Florida and Miami is enough for a top-four finish -- if, of course, Texas A&M can survive it. The Aggies beat Bama last year, but it didn't amount to anything with the selection committee because Texas A&M couldn't beat Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss or LSU.
What the committee won't like: A Sept. 17 home loss to Miami. It's the one opportunity in the nonconference lineup to impress the selection committee with a Power 5 win against what could be a CFP Top 25 opponent. The Aggies don't need the win for their résumé as much as they do for some wiggle room against SEC opponents. If they can't beat Miami at home, though, how are they going to beat Alabama on the road?
Penn State
Last year's record: 7-6
Chance to make playoff: 1.8%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Oct. 29 vs. Ohio State. This was a toss-up, because the game against Michigan is in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes, though, will give the Nittany Lions' defense a greater challenge, and ESPN's FPI gives Ohio State an 82.9% chance to win.
What the committee will like: This team needs to be in the Big Ten East race, period. The Nittany Lions recruit too well to finish the season 2-6. They have a veteran quarterback returning in Sean Clifford, but they have to get more offensive production, which comes with better offensive line play and a more dependable running game.
What the committee won't like: 0-for-October. Penn State faces Michigan AND Ohio State in October. It can't lose both of those games and expect to finish in the top four. Last fall, Penn State was 1-4 in October, with its lone win against Indiana.
Pitt
Last year's record: 11-3
Chance to make playoff: 1.3%
Chance to win national title: .1%
Toughest test: Sept. 1 vs. West Virginia. Yes, this is a home game, but it's the Backyard Brawl, it's on a Thursday night with everyone watching and it's the season opener, when everyone is flawed and playing with jitters, and anything can and will happen. By the time Pitt travels to UNC (Oct. 29) and Miami (Nov. 26) -- the two toughest road trips of the season -- it will own its identity, for better or for worse.
What the committee will like: A one-loss or undefeated ACC champion with a win against a ranked Atlantic Division opponent in the ACC title game. There is little if any margin for error because ...
What the committee won't like: The strength of schedule. The two-loss Panthers won the ACC last year and it wasn't enough. Pitt's stumble against Western Michigan, 44-41, haunted the Panthers through Selection Day. They also lost to unranked Miami. It's a similar schedule, with Western Michigan and Tennessee back in the September lineup. Pitt needs to hope West Virginia and/or Tennessee can finish in the final CFP Top 25, along with Miami and/or another ACC Coastal Division team. No. 16 Miami is Pitt's only opponent ranked in the Associated Press preseason Top 25, but No. 4 Clemson, No. 13 NC State or No. 22 Wake Forest would make for ideal ACC title game opportunities.
North Carolina
Last year's record: 6-7
Chance to make playoff: 1.2%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Sept. 24 vs. Notre Dame. ESPN's FPI gives the Irish a 56.7% chance to win in Chapel Hill.
What the committee will like: A 3-0 record vs. the ACC's Atlantic Division. UNC has November crossover games against both Wake Forest and NC State, which should both be CFP Top 25 teams. If the Tar Heels can win those games and beat another ranked Atlantic Division opponent (Clemson would be best opportunity) in the ACC championship, they will have a shot to overcome a Sept. 24 home loss to Notre Dame.
What the committee won't like: A repeat of 2021. It wasn't pretty, and expectations were higher. The Tar Heels couldn't string together more than two wins at a time and lost to Georgia Tech and Florida State -- teams that combined to finish 8-16. UNC ranked No. 14 in offensive efficiency but finished No. 99 in defensive efficiency.
Kentucky
Last year's record: 10-3
Chance to make playoff: 1.1%
Chance to win national title: 0.1%
Toughest test: Nov. 19 vs. Georgia. ESPN's FPI gives the defending national champs an 83.3% chance to win at Kentucky.
What the committee will like: An unofficial Egg Bowl title. Kentucky faces Ole Miss AND Mississippi State from the SEC's West Division. If Kentucky can go 2-0 in its crossover games, it will lend more credence to its playoff résumé.
What the committee won't like: Not enough marquee wins. With a nonconference schedule that includes Miami (Ohio), Youngstown State, Northern Illinois and rival Louisville, Kentucky has to beat top-25 opponents and avoid losing to the likes of an unranked Tennessee. What if Kentucky's only loss is to Georgia? Last year the Wildcats lost three straight -- back-to-back road trips to Georgia and Mississippi State, followed by a home loss to Tennessee. Some of it is out of the Wildcats' control, as they need more teams in their division to be in the CFP Top 25.
Cincinnati
Last year's record: 13-1
Chance to make playoff: 1.0%
Chance to win national title: <0.1%
Toughest test: Sept. 3 at Arkansas. FPI gives the Razorbacks a 59.6% chance to win the season opener.
What the committee will like: Perfection. An undefeated season and a conference title is what it took last year, and that included a marquee win against the Irish. Cincy has a similar opportunity against Arkansas, a surging SEC West team that can finish in the CFP Top 25. Without a win against the Hogs, there won't be enough on the schedule to impress the committee.
What the committee won't like: In addition to the obvious (a loss), a lack of star power. This team will look vastly different without Desmond Ridder, Sauce Gardner and Jerome Ford. Pieces are in place up front on both sides of the ball for new stars to emerge, but the committee has shown in the past it values teams that rank in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency.