Lasting from mid-January until late August, just about the longest offseason known to man belongs to college football. But in a way, that's good: It gives us plenty of time to preview and prepare for the fire hose that is the fall.
My initial SP+ projections will go up soon after February's signing day -- spoiler alert: Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State will probably rank really high -- and my 2022 divisional preview pieces will begin after that, but we don't have to wait till the previews to get started. Let's talk about some of the big-picture items we're going to be talking about a lot, and enjoying immensely, in the offseason months to come.
The burden of expectation in College Station
Even the best-laid previews go awry. Just as we spent a good portion of last offseason talking about whether JT Daniels was ready to lead a national-title charge at Georgia, we also talked about whether quarterback Haynes King was ready to take Texas A&M to a new level.
In both cases, injuries rendered these topics moot. Daniels missed time and gave way to Stetson Bennett, who indeed led the Dawgs to the promised land, while King was lost for the season in Week 2, ceding the floor to Zach Calzada. Calzada put together a stunning performance in A&M's upset of Alabama, but he otherwise lacked; at the end of a disappointing 2021 campaign, he decided to transfer to Auburn. Strike up the "Is King ready?" talk all over again. And after the coup Jimbo Fisher just pulled off in recruiting, turn the volume up quite a bit this time.
When you make what Fisher makes, and you sign one of the best recruiting classes on record, you're going to face all sorts of expectations. A&M is 34-14 under Fisher and has rounded beautifully into form on defense. But defensive coordinator Mike Elko took the head-coaching job at Duke (Fisher replaced him with DJ Durkin), and we still don't know what we need to know about the quarterback position. King should be ready to go, and LSU transfer Max Johnson and four-star freshman Conner Weigman both come aboard too.
The Aggies' talent level is rising quickly, but so is the pressure. In the first half of 2022, A&M will play Miami at home, Arkansas in Arlington and a revenge-seeking Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The quarterback of choice, whoever that may be, needs to play at a high level, and quickly.
Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly and life after humongous coaching moves
It was difficult to find an accurate modern comparison for Lincoln Riley leaving Oklahoma for USC. Coaches don't tend to leave one college football blue blood for another without some sort of break in between, which Nick Saban took by going from LSU to the Miami Dolphins to Alabama, or with lots of warning, as in college basketball when Roy Williams left Kansas for alma mater North Carolina. Riley had never coached in California before taking the USC job -- hell, he had never coached west of Lubbock -- and a day after denying that he was interested in the LSU job, he left for L.A.
Two days later, we found a good Riley-to-USC comp: Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU. Kelly had never coached south of Cincinnati in a nearly 40-year career, but now he's as south as south gets.
We'll probably see a few more moves like this in the coming years, as the coaching carousel continues to trend wackier and the universe adapts to a sudden and ridiculous increase in already ridiculous salaries for coaches. But while we wait to see what other moves come about, we'll actually watch a Riley USC team and a Kelly LSU squad in action soon. Riley is overseeing some massive turnover on the USC depth chart -- to such a degree that it will be hard to set expectations for quite a while -- while Kelly is in charge of an LSU team fighting major attrition. Who finds his footing faster? Who maybe finds himself under early pressure when his massive new salary doesn't immediately procure massive results?
Ohio State's response
Ryan Day's third Ohio State team was as good as ever offensively. Even with a new starting quarterback (C.J. Stroud), the Buckeyes were first nationally in both scoring and total offense, and far and away No. 1 in offensive SP+. Unfortunately, the defense couldn't hold up its end of the bargain, falling to 20th in defensive SP+ and 59th in total defense, and getting shoved around for 200-plus rushing yards in four games, two of them losses. They finished 11-2, lost to Michigan for the first time in a decade and missed out on the College Football Playoff for the first time in three years. An embarrassing failure? Of course not, but Ohio State didn't meet its own standard.
Day did not respond lightly. He brought in Oklahoma State's Jim Knowles as defensive coordinator and made a series of other hires -- including Cincinnati cornerbacks coach Perry Eliano -- to spruce things up. The defense should return strong overall production levels, and if Day's staff adjustments click, Ohio State will probably be right back atop the Big Ten. But a hefty amount of change doesn't always result in immediate improvement, and if the defense remains inconsistent, Michigan, a restocked Penn State or some other Big Ten program could again keep the Buckeyes out of the playoff. (Notre Dame could do damage in the 2022 season opener too.)
Another potentially wild Big 12 race
While winning their respective power conferences, Georgia (SEC), Michigan (Big Ten), Pittsburgh (ACC) and Utah (Pac-12) combined to win five conference games by one score. Baylor played five such conference games and won four, including a conference championship game won by five points and 1 inch. Big 12 runner-up Oklahoma State won two, lost two others and won all four of its nonconference games (including the Fiesta Bowl) by one score as well. Iowa State lost four one-score Big 12 games, and Texas lost five.
Tight games were rampant in the Big 12, in other words. The conference ended up with five teams ranked between 12th and 21st in SP+, plus two more in the top 50. Having no elite teams but lots of good ones means endless wild finishes, and unless Texas enjoys a massive second-year leap under Steve Sarkisian or Oklahoma does the same in Brent Venables' head-coaching debut, we should see more of the same in 2022. And just imagine what will happen when the league adds Cincinnati, BYU, Houston and UCF in the coming years.
Zach Kittley and a renewed Texas Tech attack
When it comes to turnarounds, Western Kentucky showed us the potential of the transfer portal in 2021. With his offense crumbling to 117th in offensive SP+ in 2020, Hilltoppers head coach Tyson Helton hired prolific Houston Baptist offensive coordinator Zach Kittley to breathe life into the attack. And to do so, Kittley brought in some ringers.
HBU transfer Bailey Zappe threw for an incredible 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns. Fellow HBU transfer Jerreth Sterns caught 150 passes for 1,902 yards and 17 scores. Two other former HBU Huskies, Josh Sterns and Ben Ratzlaff, caught another 28 balls. WKU improved all the way to fifth in offensive SP+, jumping from 5-7 to 9-5 in the process.
Granted, Zappe and the elder Sterns are out of eligibility, but it's hard not to get excited about both the potential and location of Kittley's new project. A former Texas Tech student assistant under Kliff Kingsbury, the 30-year-old is returning to Lubbock as new head coach Joey McGuire's playcaller.
Kittley's attack may be the purest new version of the air raid in existence, and while he has a new receiving corps to figure out -- only one of Tech's five leading receivers return in 2022 -- he'll have a couple of interesting quarterbacks to choose from (sophomore Donovan Smith or senior Tyler Shough), he's got an excellent slot man in Myles Price and, well, his track record suggests Tech is going to score a lot of points no matter what.
You know how people will say something like "College football is better when [insert fallen power] is good"? Well, college football is better when Tech is slinging the ball around without reproach. That should be the case in 2022.
Dabo Swinney betting on himself
It surprised no one that, tasked with making key replacements on the coaching staff -- something he hasn't had to do much of, relatively speaking -- Dabo Swinney bet on himself and the culture he's created. The Clemson head coach lost his longtime offensive (Tony Elliott) and defensive (Brent Venables) coordinators to the Virginia and Oklahoma head-coaching jobs, respectively, and instead of bringing in outside voices, he promoted from within. Quarterbacks coach Brandon Streeter is the new offensive coordinator, while Wes Goodwin, listed as a "senior defensive assistant" for the last four years, takes over as linebackers coach and defensive coordinator.
On one hand, this makes perfect sense. Swinney has promoted from within before -- when Chad Morris left to take the SMU head coaching job, he bumped Elliott and Jeff Scott up to co-coordinators on offense -- and it worked out swimmingly. Plus, he's spent more than a decade crafting a specific culture within the Clemson football offices, and it's won him a lot of games. It would stand to reason that he wants people who fully understand that culture running his offense and defense.
On the other hand ... the two most important hires Swinney has ever made were outsiders. He brought Morris from Tulsa in 2011 in the hopes of modernizing the Clemson attack, and it reaped dividends. Clemson was 76th in offensive SP+ in 2010 and 10th by 2013. After ranking 69th in defensive SP+ in 2011, Swinney brought Venables from Oklahoma, and the Tigers were third by 2014.
The defense has remained dominant through the years, but the offense plummeted to 71st this past fall -- the worst performance for either unit since 2011 -- in part because of stagnation at the quarterback position that Streeter coaches. Can Clemson solve its problems without outside input? It's really hard to bet against Swinney and the Tigers, with their track record and recruiting rankings. The odds favor a pretty solid bounce-back effort on offense. But it's also not hard to wonder if an outsider could better right the ship on that side of the ball.
Even if Streeter turns out to be a great hire, it's also fair to wonder how long it might take the Tigers' offense to rebound. D.J. Uiagalelei was a mess during his first full season as Clemson's starting quarterback, and in the Tigers' bowl win over Iowa State, the playcalling had loud "we have no idea what we're good at, so let's just run another draw play on third down" tones to it. The Clemson defense will likely remain dominant, but if the offense is only decent, there could be another wide-open ACC title race.
The incredible class of 2020
It's possible that at some point in the near future, a star junior-to-be elects to sit out his entire third season in college to prepare for the NFL draft. It's also possible that such a move finally prompts a rethinking of the way draft eligibility works in general -- maybe players would end up being allowed to declare two years out of high school instead of three? Things may be trending in that direction, but that's a thought for another time. Barring such an opt-out, 2022 will give us one last, long look at an incredibly athletic third-year class before its stars inevitably head off to the pros. Among them:
Check out some of the best defensive plays from Alabama's Will Anderson Jr.
OLB Will Anderson, Alabama. If the Heisman Trophy was legitimately awarded to college football's best player, Anderson would have won it in a landslide. He is the closest thing to Derrick Thomas since Derrick Thomas.
QB Bryce Young, Alabama. The scariest thing? Young could clearly improve further. He scrambled into a few too many sacks and didn't necessarily utilize his entire array of skills to its fullest. And all he did was win the Heisman as a true sophomore.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State. In theory, Ohio State has huge shoes to fill with star receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave departing. In the Rose Bowl, Smith-Njigba (15 catches, 347 yards) basically did it by himself.
WR Jordan Addison, Pitt. It's not a guarantee that Smith-Njigba is even the best slot receiver in college football. The lithe, 175-pound Addison, after all, won the 2021 Biletnikoff Award with 1,593 yards and 17 TDs.
QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State. Like Alabama's Mac Jones in 2020, Stroud never seemed to get the credit he deserved in 2021 -- he was first in Total QBR by a healthy margin -- because of the talent around him. Maybe that will change in 2022.
DT Bryan Bresee and DE Myles Murphy, Clemson. Clemson could have the best defensive line in the country, in large part because of these two. Murphy broke through with 15 TFLs and 7.5 sacks in 2021, while Bresee was Clemson's best player before tearing an ACL against NC State.
WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU. He missed LSU's last seven games with a foot injury but still led the Tigers in receiving yards. In his last nine games in uniform, he's caught 65 balls for 1,035 yards and 13 TDs despite massive uncertainty at the QB position.
RB Devon Achane, Texas A&M. The track star will top the "hold your breath when he's got the ball" list for 2022 -- he gained 1,171 yards and scored 10 times in just 154 touches last season, and he averaged an obscene 33 yards over nine kick returns. If you let Achane get to fifth gear, you aren't catching him. Just ask Alabama.
NOBODY IS GONNA CATCH DEVON ACHANE. pic.twitter.com/6Ku3Om3Hod
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 10, 2021
CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia. Impossibly fast, Ringo was Georgia's best cover guy as a redshirt freshman even before he clinched the Dawgs' national title with a pick-six.
RB Bijan Robinson, Texas. Steve Sarkisian's first season in Austin was awfully frustrating, but that wasn't Robinson's fault: He posted 1,422 combined rushing and receiving yards with 15 touchdowns. Imagine what he might do with more help.
TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame. Granted, Georgia's Brock Bowers stole some of his "thrilling young tight end" thunder, but Mayer still led an 11-2 team with 71 catches while run blocking at an extremely high level. He's dynamite.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama. He could be as impactful a transfer as Jameson Williams was for Bama in 2021. With almost no help whatsoever at Georgia Tech, Gibbs rushed for 746 yards (5.2 per carry), caught 36 balls for 470 yards and averaged 25.6 yards per kick return.
So many soon-to-be third-years will arrive in 2022 fully formed, and that says nothing of some of the players who still have time to develop into something incredible, such as Julian Fleming (Ohio State WR), Darnell Washington (Georgia TE) and Justin Flowe (Oregon LB). The 2023 NFL draft class is going to be absolutely loaded, particularly at the RB and WR positions.
The Pac-12 North after rock bottom
The Pac-12 was a terrible disappointment in 2021, and while the South did still produce an excellent (if slow-starting) Utah team, the North was straight-up bad. Oregon failed to look the part of a contender after winning at Ohio State and collapsed down the stretch, falling from 14th to 38th in SP+ while losing three of their last four. Washington didn't live up to expectations for even one second, losing to Montana in the season opener and finishing 4-8 and 83rd in SP+. Stanford collapsed offensively and defensively and went 3-9. Cal started 1-5 and fell to 84th in SP+ before rallying a bit. Washington State started 1-3 and dealt with coach Nick Rolovich's awkward dismissal, rallied under interim coach Jake Dickert, then laid a Sun Bowl egg against Central Michigan.
Among the North's six teams, only Oregon State exceeded expectations, and even the Beavers finished a 7-6 campaign with a Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl loss to a Utah State team that may have been good enough to win the division.
Now what? Oregon lost coach Mario Cristobal to Miami and replaced him with Georgia defensive coordinator Dan Lanning, who has a quarterback situation to figure out, a skill corps to rebuild and a pass rush that won't include potential No. 1 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux. Washington made a potentially lovely hire in new coach Kalen Deboer -- the former Fresno State coach has succeeded in basically every job he's ever had -- and should have an excellent defense, but is starting from scratch offensively. The other four teams enjoy decent continuity (Wazzu gave Dickert the full-time job) but don't seem to have particularly high ceilings. This division should always produce at least one top-15-caliber team. Will that be the case in 2022?
The battle for second in the SEC East
Safe to say, as defending national champion, Georgia is a pretty obvious favorite in next year's SEC East race. But someone else in the division is probably going to go 6-2 or so (and, potentially, 10-2 overall) and finish second ... and your guess is as good as mine as to who that may be.
From a numbers standpoint, Tennessee is appealing. The Volunteers will return quarterback Hendon Hooker, who showed some serious flashes of quality play in Josh Heupel's offense, and neither the offense nor the defense was loaded with seniors. Even if you don't love the Vols as much as SP+ did (they finished 10th overall), there's a lot to like.
Florida is under new management, and it wouldn't be all that surprising if Billy Napier was able to right the ship pretty quickly. He basically did that at Louisiana, and it's not like he's inheriting a blank slate in terms of talent.
Georgia aside, Kentucky has the strongest identity in the division and will boast an experienced backfield -- quarterback Will Levis, running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. -- even if the defense is dealing with quite a bit of turnover.
South Carolina overachieved massively in Shane Beamer's first season in charge, winning seven games instead of the three or so it was projected to win. The Gamecocks got hammered by most of the good teams on their schedule, but similar overachievement in Year 2 could take them into the top 25. Plus they've got Spencer Rattler coming in as a transfer, which could spice up the offense.
Missouri got its defense somewhat under control late in 2021, and head coach Eliah Drinkwitz just signed what might be the best recruiting class in school history. If the Tigers figure out the quarterback position, the team's experience levels and upside could produce a nice step forward.
Five teams head into the season with legitimate dreams of a big season, even if an East title likely won't be in the cards.
An open slate in the G5
Luke Fickell's Cincinnati Bearcats went 22-2 in 2020-21, with a pair of top-10 finishes, a CFP berth and losses only to Georgia and Alabama. They went further than a Group of 5 team ever has in the playoff era, and they earned a Big 12 invitation in the process.
Their domination also took any drama out of the race for the group's New Year's Six bowl bid. We knew heading into 2021 who the big dog was, and the Bearcats did nothing to change that.
In 2022, the race potentially opens up again. Cincinnati should still be strong, but without quarterback Desmond Ridder, running back Jerome Ford and the best cornerback duo in the country (Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant), the Bearcats will inevitably fall back to the pack a bit. That could open the door for a number of teams.
Houston. Dana Holgorsen's Cougars finished 12-2 and 31st in SP+, and with quarterback Clayton Tune and a number of the team's best offensive players returning, Houston fans have to think now's the time to make their first New Year's Six run since 2015.
Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are 22-3 over the last two seasons, and quarterback Grayson McCall announced that he (a) "pisses teal" (which he should probably have a doctor look into) and (b) would be returning to Jamey Chadwell's squad in 2022.
Fresno State. The Bulldogs lost coach Kalen DeBoer to Washington, but predecessor Jeff Tedford, 26-14 in Fresno from 2017 to '19, is back in charge, and it appears quarterback Jake Haener will be back as well. After a shaky start, they were good enough down the stretch to finish 33rd in SP+.
UTSA and Utah State. The Roadrunners and Aggies went a combined 23-5 and won their respective conferences. SP+ wasn't entirely sold on them -- among other things, they were a combined 10-0 in one-score games -- but USU was super explosive, UTSA was wonderfully physical, and both might have the talent to offset regression to the mean in the close-games department.
Typical Group of 5 heavies such as Boise State, UCF, Memphis, Appalachian State and Louisiana could obviously play a role here, as might SMU or a rebuilt WKU. But unless Houston runs away with things or Cincinnati maintains its level despite turnover, we enter 2022 with a wide-open race here.
Welcome to the party, JMU
The more, the merrier. This last round of conference realignment began when Oklahoma and Texas announced they were leaving for the SEC and continues to play out at the FCS level. It resulted in a trio of FCS powers announcing they would be moving up, bumping the FBS roster from 130 to 133 teams. Sam Houston and Jacksonville State will begin their transition to Conference USA in 2023, but it appears James Madison will begin its own transition to Sun Belt membership this coming season.
JMU was a big get for the Sun Belt. The Dukes went 70-11 from 2016 to '21, winning the 2016 FCS title and losing close games to North Dakota State deep in the playoffs in 2017, 2019 and 2021. Their investment levels are strong, and they finished second in my FCS SP+ ratings this year with a rating that, adjusted for FBS, would have ranked fifth in the Sun Belt. While they had a number of seniors on the 2021 squad, head coach Curt Cignetti is adding some intriguing players via the transfer portal. James Madison won't be eligible for a Sun Belt title for a while, but it should immediately look like a sturdy FBS team and a midlevel Sun Belt squad. Welcome, Dukes!