The 2021 college coaching carousel started early, spun furiously throughout November and early December, and ended with several of the sport's biggest names changing addresses.
Many wonder if the historic cycle of coaching changes will stand out in both volume and drama, or whether it will be a harbinger for future carousels. Several factors suggest the latter is more likely. The money is bigger than ever. Patience with coaches is incredibly thin (largely because the money is bigger than ever). The current climate of roster management, specifically the transfer portal, has accelerated some employment decisions.
Looking ahead to the 2022 carousel, the landscape suggests either a normal-ish cycle or another wild one. There are obvious hot spots, such as Nebraska and Florida State, and others where changes wouldn't come as a huge shock, such as UCLA, Georgia Tech, Syracuse and even Texas. But what made the past cycle so distinctive is the number of schools where no one expected changes, such as Florida, TCU and Washington.
Here's the first look at the coaching hot seat for the 2022 season, broken down by league. Like in previous years, I've listed several coaches who are retirement candidates, even if they face little to no job pressure.
ACC
Hot seat: Mike Norvell, Florida State; Dino Babers, Syracuse; Scott Satterfield, Louisville; Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech
Keep an eye on: Mack Brown, North Carolina
The ACC projects to be the most active league during the upcoming carousel, especially if improvement does not take place at several programs. The past cycle included four ACC changes -- three firings, one retirement -- and the next one could approach or even exceed the total.
Norvell's situation will generate the most national attention, as Florida State tries to dig itself out of the mess made toward the end of Jimbo Fisher's tenure. After making the postseason every year from 1979 to 2017, the Seminoles have missed bowl games in Norvell's first two seasons, and three of the past four seasons. Norvell's team responded well from an 0-4 start, winning five of its next seven games, before a season-ending loss to Florida. Then came the signing day flip of top recruit Travis Hunter, who chose to play for former FSU star Deion Sanders at Jackson State, which sparked the "Fire Mike Norvell" Twitter Spaces conversation.
A third consecutive bowl-less year will mean the end for Norvell, but the coach has support from new athletic director Michael Alford and key donors. He will also have more of his players in key roles this fall. The question is how many wins Norvell needs to ensure he's back in 2023.
Babers is back for a seventh season at Syracuse with a new offensive coordinator (Robert Anae) among other staffing changes. Early signature victories and a 10-win season in 2018 boosted Babers' profile, but Syracuse is 11-24 the past three seasons. Babers returns All-American running back Sean Tucker this fall, but anything short of a bowl appearance should lead to a change.
Collins is three years into a seven-year contract that pays him about $3.3 million annually, and Georgia Tech isn't flush with money to rush a change. He's just 9-25 (7-18 in ACC play) so far, but he made significant staff changes after the 2021 season. "Less branding, more coaching," he said last month. "Less worrying about culture, more worried about ball."
Despite a season with slight improvement in record, Satterfield needs to show progress as there are concerns with the overall product. The 2019 ACC coach of the year is just 10-14 the past two seasons, and he will soon be working for a new athletic director following Vince Tyra's exit.
Brown isn't a candidate to be fired, but at 70, his longevity in coaching will remain a question, especially after a disappointing 2021 season. North Carolina needs to significantly upgrade its defense and replace record-setting quarterback Sam Howell.
Big 12
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: Steve Sarkisian, Texas
The Big 12 had three coaching changes in 2021, two of the shocking variety, as Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC and TCU dumped Gary Patterson in his 21st season. The upcoming cycle could be quiet in the conference, especially if Sarkisian can find some stability and success after a tumultuous first season at Texas.
Some might categorize Sarkisian as a true hot-seat situation, and there certainly is a path to his dismissal if things don't improve in Austin. But Sarkisian is entering just his second season. He also benefits from being the clear target for Texas' brass in replacing Tom Herman in January 2021. Clearly, Texas' problems go beyond the head coach's office and will need more than two years to fully fix.
Sarkisian returns a roster that should at least win seven or eight games, and could turn into a Big 12 contender. Plus, Texas signed ESPN's No. 4 recruiting class and added quarterback transfer Quinn Ewers, a five-star recruit, from Ohio State. Barring another bowl-less season, Sarkisian should be safe for 2023. Then again, it's Texas.
I considered West Virginia's Neal Brown, who is just 17-18 (11-15 in Big 12 play) during his time in Morgantown. But a contract through the 2026 season likely makes a change cost-prohibitive, and athletic director Shane Lyons hired Brown and remains supportive.
Big Ten
Hot seat: Scott Frost, Nebraska
Keep an eye on: None
The situation with Frost and Nebraska seems clear-cut after an incredibly frustrating 2021 season where a decent Huskers team repeatedly found new and innovative ways to lose. Nebraska had a zero scoring differential in Big Ten play, but dropped eight of nine league contests. Frost's record at his alma mater fell to 15-29. If Frost wasn't a former national championship-winning quarterback at Nebraska and a native son of the state, he would have been fired.
Instead, he must take Nebraska to a bowl game, at minimum, to ensure he's back for the 2023 season. In addition to accepting a reduced salary, Frost had to overhaul his offensive staff, which he brought with him from UCF, and hire Pitt's Mark Whipple as the team's new coordinator. After four years of Adrian Martinez, Frost will lean on Texas transfer Casey Thompson or another quarterback to generate more wins. Athletic director Trev Alberts, a decorated former Huskers player like Frost, remains supportive and wants Frost to have a breakthrough. But another bowl-less season, or even a middling one, will leave Nebraska and Alberts little choice but to make a change at the top.
Pac-12
Hot seat: Herm Edwards, Arizona State; Karl Dorrell, Colorado
Keep an eye on: Chip Kelly, UCLA
The Pac-12 became a big subplot of the 2021 coaching cycle, fueled largely by some surprise hot spots. USC not surprisingly made a change with Clay Helton, but so did Washington, dumping Jimmy Lake after only 13 games. Washington State fired second-year coach Nick Rolovich for not complying with the state's vaccine mandate. Mario Cristobal's departure from Oregon to Miami meant one-third of the league's schools will have new coaches for 2022.
The upcoming carousel should be lighter in the Pac-12, although at least one change is likely. Arizona State is sticking with Edwards as the NCAA investigation into alleged recruiting violations continues. Athletic director Ray Anderson is very tied to Edwards, who hasn't had the breakthrough ASU sought when it hired the former NFL coach. Edwards is just 25-18 overall and 17-14 in Pac-12 play. If Arizona State is hit with significant penalties and the team doesn't make big on-field strides, it might be time to split with Edwards. How his situation impacts Anderson's status also is worth monitoring.
Dorrell had one solid (albeit abridged) season at CU and one lousy one (4-8 in 2021), and enters 2022 with three years left on his contract. The team has also lost a large group of players, including several standouts, to the transfer portal since late November. A few more wins and better offensive production under new coordinator Mike Sanford should bring Dorrell back for 2023. Colorado understands the up-and-down coaching transition it has endured, mainly because of Mel Tucker's one-year stint in Boulder, and will seek stability with Dorrell if he gives them enough reason to do so.
Last week, UCLA and Kelly agreed to a new contract through the 2025 season, days before buyouts (on both sides) were set to drop from $9 million to $0. The Bruins recorded their first winning season (8-4) under Kelly in 2021, and finishing tied for second in the Pac-12 South. They return veteran quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and others, but any step backward in performance could lead to a change, especially since athletic director Martin Jarmond did not hire Kelly.
SEC
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: Bryan Harsin, Auburn
The league could be entering a sustained period of coaching stability. After LSU and Florida made changes, six SEC coaches will be entering their first or second seasons in 2022. Add in several untouchables (Alabama's Nick Saban, Georgia's Kirby Smart, Texas A&M's Jimbo Fisher) and the success of recent hires -- Arkansas' Sam Pittman, South Carolina's Shane Beamer, Tennessee's Josh Heupel -- and the landscape could become fairly quiet.
Auburn's Harsin is among the SEC's recently hired coaches, and he had some positive moments in Year 1, including midseason wins over Ole Miss, Arkansas and LSU. But five losses to end the season, including a deflating Iron Bowl collapse against Alabama, raise some concern about Harsin entering the 2022 season. Auburn recruited a solid class, which ESPN currently ranks No. 17 nationally, and added Texas A&M quarterback transfer Zach Calzada after losing Bo Nix to the portal.
A contract that runs through the 2026 season favors Harsin's return for Year 3, but Auburn has a long history of being unafraid to dump coaches to whom it owed gobs of money. The future of athletic director Allen Greene, who hired Harsin, is also worth watching, as he could soon be on the move. The potential combination of a poor 2022 season and a new athletic director would not help Harsin.
I debated whether to include Eliah Drinkwitz, who is 11-12 (8-10 in SEC play) at Missouri, and boasts some notable wins over LSU and Florida. But the 2021 season saw some turbulence with the staff and the roster. Missouri has a new athletic director (Desiree Reed-Francois) in place. Still, barring a truly disastrous season this fall, Drinkwitz should be safe for 2023.
Group of 5
Hot seat: Mike Bloomgren, Rice; Ryan Silverfield, Memphis; Jeff Scott, South Florida; Marcus Arroyo, UNLV; Tim Albin, Ohio; Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green; Jake Spavital, Texas State
Keep an eye on: Ken Niumatalolo, Navy; Willie Taggart, Florida Atlantic; Seth Littrell, North Texas; Willie Fritz, Tulane; Jason Candle, Toledo; Danny Gonzales, New Mexico; Butch Jones, Arkansas State
Silverfield needs Memphis to take a step forward in his third season as coach, or one of the top Group of 5 jobs could open up. The same goes for Scott, who has support from athletic director Michael Kelly and recently received a contract extension through the 2026 season. At 3-18, he needs some success in Year 3 with USF.
Coaches such as Bloomgren, Spavital, Arroyo and Loeffler are still seeking their first winning seasons and must show progress this fall. Bloomgren, the former Stanford offensive coordinator, is 11-31 in four seasons at Rice. Albin took over for Frank Solich in July and will have a chance to prove himself after a full offseason, but he's not on the longest leash at Ohio.
The "keep an eye on" group features some interesting names, including Niumatalolo, who last month ended a tough two-year run with a win over Army, and will enter his 16th season at Navy. Taggart is 10-11 at FAU and could use a strong third season, while Littrell likely saved his job last fall by winning his final five regular-season games. Fritz isn't a candidate to be fired, but he's coming off of the worst season in his career (2-10).
Candle enters a pivotal season, as he's four years removed from a MAC title and just 24-20 since 2017. Toledo, which prides itself on contending for league championships, is also looking for a new athletic director. Candle was a candidate for Miami's offensive coordinator vacancy, which would have given him an exit route. While he will remain with Toledo, he needs to deliver this fall.