Before Sunday, this year's college coaching carousel had two emerging themes: early dismissals and prominent coaches staying put.
The number of coaches re-signing had started to catch up to the number of coaching changes. Among the notables not leaving: Minnesota's P.J. Fleck, UTSA's Jeff Traylor, Penn State's James Franklin, Liberty's Hugh Freeze, Michigan State's Mel Tucker, Oregon State's Jonathan Smith and Wake Forest's Dave Clawson. Boston College's Jeff Hafley added his name to the list Monday, and Kentucky's Mark Stoops followed Tuesday.
Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley seemed set to join the stay-put group, especially after denying interest in LSU's vacancy late Saturday after the Sooners lost the Bedlam game to Oklahoma State.
Then, on Sunday, Riley accepted the USC job and sent the carousel spinning off its axis. A day later, Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly, who turned 60 last month and seemed to be in the legacy-solidifying stage of his career, dramatically left for LSU.
Moves like Riley's and Kelly's simply don't happen very often. Oklahoma hasn't had a coach leave for another college job since 1947. Notre Dame hasn't had it happen since 1907.
This historic carousel undoubtedly will be remembered for the two who left, but don't forget about the group that stayed.
As the coaching news continues to roll in, here are seven observations about the carousel to date, and what might be coming in the days and weeks ahead.
Why Brian Kelly's move is so significant with an expanded playoff likely coming
When prominent college players began opting out of bowl games -- and even some regular-season ones -- the prevailing thought was there would be a threshold. If teams could reach the CFP, they likely wouldn't have opt-outs. The same was expected for coaches. As long as they had a playoff-contending team, they wouldn't leave for other jobs.
That's why Kelly's departure is so significant, and potentially a preview of the future. He left an 11-1 Notre Dame team that still has a very real chance at reaching this year's CFP. Athletic director Jack Swarbrick said Kelly's departure is effective immediately, which is not surprising. So if Notre Dame does make the top four, it will be coached by a group of assistants, some of whom might be joining Kelly at LSU.
"There's no sense in which I think [Kelly's departure] was motivated by belief that we couldn't take the next step here," Swarbrick said. "Brian has consistently reinforced to the team that we are positioned to take that next step, and I believe that passionately."
We will never know whether Riley would make the same move at the same time if Oklahoma had remained in the CFP hunt. Sources close to the USC search told me the school felt much better about its chances of hiring him once Oklahoma lost Saturday night to Oklahoma State, which eliminated the Sooners from the Big 12 and the CFP race.
Another test case could be coming with coach Luke Fickell and Cincinnati, which came in No. 4 in Tuesday's penultimate CFP ranking. Sources expect Fickell to be a top target at Notre Dame, one of few programs for which he would consider leaving Cincinnati.
But before Monday, the belief among administrators and other industry sources was that Fickell would be unmovable this year if Cincinnati makes the CFP. This very well might still be true. In fact, Fickell leaving a CFP-bound Cincinnati before the national semifinal would be even more shocking than Kelly bolting for the Bayou with a team that might make the CFP.
Without naming Fickell, I asked Swarbrick on Tuesday if he would be willing to wait for coaches involved in the CFP or high-profile postseason games.
"It's about the right candidate," he said. "When we find the person we think is the right one to lead this program and have the right conversations with him, that's all that matters. If that happens tomorrow or weeks from now, that's fine."
Time will tell if Swarbrick, other ADs and coaches have the patience to wait or, in the coaches' case, the willingness to say, "No, thanks. I'm going to coach my team." But the likelihood of an expanded playoff could make these situations more common in the future.
For starters, more coveted coaches will be involved in the CFP. There likely will be playoff games in early to mid-December, right around the early signing period. If this year's trend continues -- early firings, early hirings -- more coaches likely will face the same decision Kelly did, and that Fickell could in the coming days. The idea of coaches leaving CFP-bound teams before the big games isn't good for the sport, but it might become more of a reality.
USC needed outsiders to solve internal issues, put best foot forward
Mike Bohn wasn't USC's first choice as athletic director. Or second. Or third. In 2019, a scandal-marred university struggled to find accomplished AD candidates who wanted the job. Bohn brought a solid background, but he hadn't engineered success with Colorado's football program, leading to a change. He had done well as Cincinnati's athletic director but had not worked at a Tier 1 program such as USC.
What Bohn brought, though, was an outsider's perspective to a place held back by insular thinking, especially with the highest-profile hires (athletic director and head football coach). Bohn wasn't a USC guy, and he saw what USC needed to start maximizing its potential. USC improved infrastructure elements around the program, especially in the recruiting department and with other support staff. Preparations for a coaching search also began well before Clay Helton was fired Sept. 13 after only two games. While several programs didn't expect to be looking for coaches right now, USC was ready for the moment.
When Bohn and deputy Brandon Sosna got their chance to go after Riley, they went all-in, armed with a plan that showcased USC's very best qualities. They mentioned the California lifestyle but also virtually unparalleled access to high-level local and regional recruits, plus a fairly easy path to the College Football Playoff in a vulnerable Pac-12. Riley saw a USC program that, with the right level of support and vision, plus his presence, soon would be competing nationally again.
Is Oklahoma a better program than USC right now? Absolutely. Has OU been way better for the past 15 years? Yes. But when USC has the right coach and support elements in place, the potential to win national championships is higher.
The pitch to Riley is the vision USC should have been embracing since the end of the Pete Carroll era. Instead, USC stopped evolving or operating like a college football blue blood, a program with 11 national titles and 39 conference titles.
USC seemingly acted like a program that thought less of itself.
Ultimately, it took outsiders to hire a coach from outside the USC family who can restore elite-level success. No hire is foolproof, but Riley gives USC the best chance to build itself into a national power again.
"Whether they win or lose, it changes perception," a Pac-12 administrator told me.
Tucker's contract is a Michigan State flex, regardless of how he performs
When the Detroit Free Press first reported that Michigan State and Tucker were closing in on a 10-year, $95 million new contract, administrators around the country were stunned. They couldn't believe Tucker, who won two games in 2020, was getting Nick Saban/Dabo Swinney/Jimbo Fisher-type money. He was in only his third season as a head coach.
Last week, the fully guaranteed contract negotiated by Tucker and his agent, Neil Cornrich, came to fruition. There were some predictable reactions about how Tucker could have merited such a contract, and how Michigan State, of all schools, could have provided one. The truth is MSU needed to step up to retain Tucker, who had received interest from LSU and likely would be on the radar for NFL teams this winter. What few knew is how big of a step top MSU donors Mat Ishbia and Steve St. Andre were willing to take.
Tucker's deal will reset the coaching market to a degree, as a lot of coaches are set to cash in with their current employers. But why should Michigan State or its fans care? To me, this contract is more about Michigan State than Tucker. Obviously, he's getting paid historic money to compete for and ultimately win championships. MSU believes that he could be an even better version of his predecessor, Mark Dantonio.
But the contract ultimately signals that MSU has the financial backing to move up in college football's pecking order. Programs have to invest to a greater degree than they ever have to keep pace in today's game. MSU can look at its own history, when it lost Nick Saban to LSU after the team won 10 games in 1999. The Spartans wouldn't win 10 or more games again until 2010.
This is a flex from MSU's deep-pocketed donors, a signal of commitment for the future, whether or not Tucker pans out as coach. Michigan State didn't even change Tucker's original buyout. If he wants to leave, he probably can. But the program is serious about winning, which Tucker understands. So do recruits considering the Spartans. That message comes through loud and clear with this deal.
Coaches could learn from Billy Napier's patience
Most Group of 5 coaches bolt for the Power 5 as soon as they have the chance. For many, it's the right move. Some who miss their window to move up never get another opportunity.
But there are lessons coaches should take from what Billy Napier just pulled off.
Napier had several Power 5 opportunities in recent years, but opted to remain at Louisiana, where he believed he could keep winning at a high level. Sources close to Napier said he would be very strategic about his next move, not taking any Power 5 job, but only ones in which he saw clear paths to success. Before the season, Virginia Tech and Arizona State were two jobs that intrigued Napier. Back then, no one expected Florida to dismiss Dan Mullen.
As jobs began to come open, Napier's name unsurprisingly surfaced. He was among the top candidates at TCU, which hired Sonny Dykes, and at Virginia Tech, which has named Brent Pry as its coach. But when Florida fired Mullen, Napier quickly emerged as a top target and was officially hired Sunday.
He worked the carousel to perfection, relying on what he continued to do as a head coach (39-12 at Louisiana), as well as a profile that included assistant-coaching stops at big-time programs (Clemson, Florida State, Alabama) for big-time coaches (Swinney, Fisher, Saban). Napier had enough belief in what he had done, both as a head coach and an assistant, to wait for a truly elite job to come calling.
Group of 5 coaches could learn from Napier's example. Sometimes waiting is the right move.
Oklahoma should prioritize defense in an unexpected search
Arguably no major program and fan base are less prepared for a coaching search than Oklahoma's, a tribute to the school and its sustained success. Coaches simply don't leave OU very often. The combination of Riley's abrupt departure, the immediate impact on recruiting and Oklahoma's upcoming move to the SEC have set off angst and anger in and around Norman.
But this also is an opportunity for Oklahoma to recalibrate a bit and potentially position itself better for the future.
For all of Riley's offensive wizardry, Heisman Trophy winners and incredible numbers, OU didn't win a single playoff game. On the biggest stages, the Sooners didn't have the right mix of personnel and balance to win national championships. The last time OU won it all, in 2000 under Bob Stoops, the program had an elite defense. Even the score of the BCS title game -- Oklahoma 13, Florida State 2 -- reflects the defensive mindset back then.
The game certainly has evolved, but to take the next step, Oklahoma must double down on recruiting and developing top defenders, especially in a Big 12 featuring much more complementary football. Oklahoma State's transformation on defense under coordinator Jim Knowles is instructive, as is Baylor's quick rise under a defensive-minded coach in Aranda.
Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables and Kentucky coach Mark Stoops both are accomplished defensive coaches who understand the type of defensive personnel needed to compete at the sport's highest level. Venables' connection to OU as an assistant from 1999 to 2011 makes him especially appealing. He also understands the value of having dynamic offenses and difference-making quarterbacks, after winning national titles at Clemson with QBs Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. Although Stoops hasn't competed nationally at Kentucky, he has built tough, defensive-oriented teams that compete and win in the SEC.
The temptation for Oklahoma might be a Riley clone or a coach best positioned to retain quarterback Caleb Williams and others, and keep the points coming. There are some good offensive-minded coaches out there, such as Iowa State's Matt Campbell. But Oklahoma can't ignore how it won nationally in the past, and why it hasn't in recent years.
Defense would be a smart play for athletic director Joe Castiglione and the Sooners.
Which coaches have benefited or could benefit from a market short on candidates?
Before the Riley and Kelly moves, as coach re-signing announcements streamed in, several industry sources wondered if there would be enough quality candidates to fill all the open jobs. In the past, programs such as LSU, Florida, Washington and Virginia Tech would attract interest from sitting Power 5 coaches. While some splashy hires still could be made, the number of accomplished coaches choosing to re-sign suggests a pivot toward a different group of realistic candidates.
Who are they? Group of 5 coaches already have landed excellent jobs at Florida (Napier), TCU (Dykes) and Washington (Fresno State's Kalen DeBoer). In many years, the rise from Louisiana to Florida or Fresno State to Washington simply wouldn't be happening.
The Nevada Wolf Pack's Jay Norvell remains a name to watch, especially if a job such as Iowa State comes open. While Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell hasn't gained traction yet, he remains an interesting option in the cycle. Utah State's Blake Anderson is another intriguing name.
Power 5 coordinators likely will define the next phase of the carousel. Miami offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee on Monday landed one of the top Group of 5 jobs at SMU. Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry on Tuesday became the next coach at Virginia Tech, still one of the top ACC jobs. Clemson's Venables likely will have a chance at Oklahoma, and Duke's potential candidate pool includes several Power 5 coordinators such as Michigan's Josh Gattis, Texas A&M's Mike Elko and Oklahoma State's Knowles.
Oklahoma and Notre Dame both could hire sitting Power 5 coaches and trigger another set of dominoes. There are also jobs that could come open in several weeks, including Miami, which is still searching for an athletic director to replace Blake James.
"There may be four waves of firings, maybe five," an industry source said recently.
Early hiring trend favors older coaches, while diversity still lacking
In recent years, the young, offensive-minded coach seemed to be in demand for those filling vacancies around college football. Preferably those with a Southern accent and stubble on their faces. But this year's carousel has been filled with mostly older coaches.
As of Wednesday morning, 14 FBS schools had made new coaching hires, and the average age is 49.4. The cycle has featured four coaches 60 or older -- Kelly, New Mexico State's Jerry Kill, UConn's Jim Mora and UMass' Don Brown. Only three schools have hired coaches under 40, and one of those, Riley, is completing his fifth season as a head coach. He's technically a young guy, but not by experience level.
That three of the lowest-level FBS jobs -- New Mexico State, UMass and UConn -- went with older coaches rather than up-and-comers is particularly interesting. If Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead (48) ends up at Akron, the trend will continue.
Schools clearly are prioritizing previous head-coaching experience this year. Only five hires so far are first-time college head coaches: Virginia Tech's Pry, Texas Tech's Joey McGuire, SMU's Lashlee, Washington State's Jake Dickert and Louisiana Tech's Sonny Cumbie. Six hires have previous Power 5 head-coaching experience.
Another emerging trend in this cycle is a lack of diversity. All 14 hires so far are white. After last year's coaching cycle, which featured barely any diversity, and the long-term history, the start to the carousel isn't overly encouraging. Prominent Black coaches such as Tucker and Franklin received enhanced contracts, and candidates such as Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman and Clemson's Tony Elliott are available.
But so far, the increased initiatives around diversity hiring don't seem to be translating to the actual hires.
Of course, the biggest trend is probably the least surprising: The willingness to spend gobs of money to fire coaches, pay their buyouts to leave and, in USC's and LSU's cases, pay hefty buyouts to poach coaches. The sport's endless pile of dead money will continue to grow.