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College football Week 12 storylines: How good are Ohio State, Cincinnati and Oregon?

With three Saturdays to go in college football's regular season, few division titles have been sewn up and only one team, top-ranked Georgia, seems to be a lock in terms of making the College Football Playoff. It's been a fun, often chaotic season, but almost nothing has actually been decided yet.

On Saturday, that will begin to change. No. 4 Ohio State hosts No. 7 Michigan State, No. 3 Oregon faces its toughest road test since September, No. 5 Cincinnati plays its biggest game since early October, and lots of division races will become clearer.

Let's talk about the week's biggest games and storylines, starting in Columbus.

All times below are Eastern. All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.

A huge game with a huge spread

No. 7 Michigan State at No. 4 Ohio State (noon, ABC)

The Big Ten has become rather predictable in the way that it produces loads of high-quality teams in a given year, and Ohio State always wins. The Buckeyes have won 28 straight conference games going back to 2018's loss at Purdue, and even against a top-10 opponent in Michigan State, they're 19-point favorites to make it 29 straight. Despite high-level competition between now and then, ESPN's FPI gives them a 49% chance of winning their fifth straight Big Ten title in a couple of weeks.

Of course, 49% is a coin toss, not a guarantee. They still have a lot of work to do.

And as I wrote for Chalk this week, it appears Michigan State is well-built to exploit some of the weaknesses Ohio State has shown this season, namely the Buckeyes' ability to blow scoring chances. In both their September loss to Oregon and single-digit wins over Penn State and Nebraska, they settled for too many field goals and suffered ill-timed turnovers and turnovers on downs. In last week's romp over Purdue, they solved this issue primarily by scoring from outside the red zone, but Michigan State's defense is good at two things: preventing explosive plays and forcing teams to settle for field goals. It worked in the Spartans' big win over Michigan, and there's a chance it could work again.

Michigan State will still have to score, however, and recent trends suggest that could be difficult.

Remember back in September, when the Ohio State defense was in crisis? The Buckeyes had no answers for Oregon's RPO attack, and while head coach Ryan Day had stuck with defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs after some shaky moments last fall, he shifted playcalling duties to defensive backs coach Matt Barnes following the loss.

There were some more glitches in their 41-20 win over Tulsa the following week, but in their last seven games, the Buckeyes have given up just 16.6 points per game and 4.6 yards per play. The Buckeyes have allowed a passer rating of more than 140 just once and haven't given up even five yards per carry since Oregon left town.

Granted, they haven't faced a murderers' row of offenses either. Of their last seven opponents, only two rank in the offensive SP+ top 50, and Purdue's unique, quick-passing attack gained 477 yards and scored 31 points against them last week.

Michigan State ranks 27th in offensive SP+, the best Ohio State has faced since Oregon. Even without receiver Jalen Nailor the last two weeks and with star running back Kenneth Walker III battling a nagging injury, the Spartans still scored 69 combined points at 6.9 yards per play in the last two weeks. They are still rather all-or-nothing -- 52nd in three-and-out percentage but seventh in explosive play rate -- but they've grown more consistent over time. Obviously having neither a full-strength Walker nor Nailor is a concern for a 19-point underdog, but the Spartans should teach us a lot more about what the Buckeyes have to offer on defense.


Will Cincinnati let the CFP committee off the hook?

SMU at No. 5 Cincinnati (3:30 p.m., ESPN)

It's clear that, given any other reasonable option, the CFP committee just doesn't want to put Cincinnati in the playoff. Despite the Bearcats' nearly two-year regular-season unbeaten streak and an 11-point road win over No. 8 Notre Dame, committee chairman Gary Barta said this week, "Strength of schedule comes up each week with Cincinnati. As games go forward, we'll continue to watch, but strength of schedules has been one of the issues." We will forever punish mid-majors for who they play and not how, judging them as if they chose not to be in a power conference.

Of course, Luke Fickell's Bearcats have to go 13-0 before they can get snubbed. And the Bearcats have gone out of their way not to look the part of late. If we take the win over Notre Dame out of the equation and focus on Cincinnati's performances against teams outside of the top 10, it's clear there's been a shift in quality:

• First five games (not including ND): +33.6 average scoring margin, 7.2 yards per play, 6.4 rushing yards per carry, 4.2 yards per play allowed, 85.8 passer rating allowed

• Last four games: +12.8 scoring margin, 6.1 yards per play, 4.2 yards per carry, 4.7 yards per play allowed, 111.1 passer rating allowed

The pass defense has dominated a little less, the run game has struggled, and even with quarterback Desmond Ridder still performing well, Cincy games have gotten closer.

Is this a real problem or an attention span issue? The Bearcats started slowly against both Navy and Tulane, and they shifted into cruise control too early after big runs against Navy, Tulsa and South Florida. With big games back on the schedule -- 8-2 SMU (33rd in SP+) this week, 9-1 Houston (38th) in the AAC championship game -- Cincinnati could shift back into fifth gear and roll.

If there are real issues at play, however, SMU is perfectly built to exploit them.

If Cincinnati's pass defense really has slipped a hair, SMU will punish that: Tanner Mordecai is top-30 in Total QBR with 3,264 yards and 37 touchdowns. Cincinnati plays more man coverage than most, but SMU destroys man coverage: Mordecai averages 13.1 yards per attempt with an elite raw QBR of 93.9 against man. Even with leading receiver Danny Gray battling an ankle injury, the Mustangs have the receiver depth -- Rashee Rice, Reggie Roberson Jr., tight end Grant Calcaterra -- to challenge Ahmad Gardner and Cincinnati's incredible coverage unit.

If Cincinnati's run game can't get back on track, SMU will punish that too. The Mustangs are second in rushing success rate allowed. The Bearcats' Jerome Ford averaged just 3.6 yards per carry against Tulane and Tulsa, then missed the USF game with an injury. Ryan Montgomery ripped off a 55-yard run last week, but it's clear that offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock doesn't trust the run game without Ford -- even while leading most of the way against USF, the Bearcats attempted 38 passes to 37 rushes. Ford's status is questionable for Saturday.

It would be a damn shame if Cincinnati let the committee off the hook, but the Bearcats still have business to take care of.


What happens when Bryce Young is behind schedule?

No. 21 Arkansas at No. 2 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS)

It's hard to say that Alabama's Bryce Young looks much like a first-year starter. The sophomore has completed 71% of his passes with a 33-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio. He's the betting favorite for the Heisman. He throws safe, catchable passes to John Metchie III, Slade Bolden, tight end Cameron Latu and running back Brian Robinson Jr. and connects on bombs to Jameson Williams.

He's got one bad habit, though, and it seems opponents are picking up on it.

We sometimes learn more about players in iffy moments than in pristine ones. While Young looks as good as anyone when leading touchdown drives -- 81% completion rate, 15.2 yards per completion -- and leads plenty of them, he struggles more than average in the failed drives. In drives that ended in punts, field goal attempts or turnovers, he is completing 59% of his passes at 9.4 yards per completion (national averages: 54%, 9.7), but his sack rate is 11.8% compared to an 8.2% national average. While fellow Heisman candidates C.J. Stroud and Matt Corral are each averaging 5.5 yards per dropback in these drives (fourth and fifth in FBS), Young averages just 4.2 (80th).

The sacks are both frequent and ill-timed. Over the last five games, Young has taken 13 sacks. Eight were in a loss to Texas A&M and near-loss to LSU, seven were in opposition territory, four were on the edge of field goal territory and two resulted in fumbles. The drives featuring these sacks produced just three points and took quite a few potential points off the board.

Here's where I mention that passing downs -- second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more -- are far more likely to produce sacks and negative plays than standard downs, and that Arkansas, Bama's Saturday opponent, ranks first in the country in success rate allowed on passing downs.

Coordinator Barry Odom blitzes less than anyone in the country, preferring to drop seven or so into coverage and rely on his one-man pass rush (Tre Williams, with his six sacks and 28 pressures). But if he's got something special lined up for Young, he'll probably deploy it in that brink-of-field-goal-range area of the field that has tripped up the Tide. That could make things interesting if the Razorbacks attack -- which ranks 33rd in standard downs success rate but 85th on passing downs -- is able to stay on schedule and do some damage.


Both ground games have the advantage in Salt Lake City

No. 3 Oregon at No. 23 Utah (7:30 p.m., ABC)

When the CFP expands, it will do fascinating things to games like Saturday's Oregon-Utah battle in Salt Lake. If the playoff is expanded to eight teams, with the Pac-12 champ getting an automatic bid, a matchup like Saturday's, pitting the likely North champ (Oregon) against the likely South champ (Utah), almost becomes a training ground. The loser would still have some work to do to clinch its division the next week, but both teams would approach the game knowing that they might need to keep something in reserve for the big battle in two weeks.

If the playoff expands to 12, Oregon would have a potential first-round bye to play for -- the Ducks would have a reason to try to win out, and they would be less inclined than the Utes to keep their cards close to the vest.

With the current four-team model, though, it's pretty simple: Oregon has to beat the Utes, then probably beat them again in two weeks in the Pac-12 championship game to make the CFP. That could be easier said than done against a Utah team that has rounded into form nicely.

These teams' strengths and weaknesses are a bit surprising this season. Both have been led by defense in recent years, but strangely, they are each tied at 13th in points per drive (2.9) but 52nd in points per drive allowed (1.9). Neither defends the run all that well, but both teams can run the hell out of the ball. Oregon ranks second in FBS in rushing success rate, with Travis Dye and backup Byron Caldwell averaging 6.4 yards per carry in injured star CJ Verdell's absence. Quarterback Anthony Brown ranks only 49th overall in Total QBR but contributes excellent things to the run game.

Utah? It is 16th in rushing success rate. Star back Tavion Thomas was held out with an injury last week against Arizona, so backups TJ Pledger and Micah Bernard rushed for 153 yards instead. The three have combined for 1,672 yards and 6.3 yards per carry this season.

Figuring out who will win, then, is probably pretty easy: Who is able to run the ball more frequently? Who stays on schedule better, and, perhaps, who establishes an early lead? Whatever the answers are, we could be asking the same questions in two weeks.


Wake, Clemson and two different sports

No. 10 Wake Forest at Clemson (noon, ESPN)

This fall, Clemson has battled an existential crisis, watched both its offense and its grip on the ACC suddenly disappear and suffered as many regular-season losses as it did from 2015 to 2020 combined.

The Tigers are also 7-3, winners of three straight, and technically still alive in the ACC Atlantic race. If only we could all have such lovely terrible years. They probably won't win their seventh straight division crown, but they aren't eliminated yet, and a win over Wake Forest on Saturday would make things awfully tense for both the Demon Deacons and NC State heading into rivalry week.

You've got to put on your track shoes against Wake. The Deacs have yet to score fewer than 35 points in a game this season, and they're seventh in both plays (76.2) and drives (13.3) per game. They avoid negative plays, stay mostly on schedule and pick you apart with the slowest and most effective RPOs around. Sam Hartman remains a sleeper Heisman candidate, and his main receiver duo, A.T. Perry and Jaquarii Roberson, has posted a combined 98 catches and 1,778 yards. The defense has given up 40 or more points three times ... and Wake has won two of those three games. They might as well play a different sport than Clemson -- the Tigers have scored more than 30 just twice (against dismal UConn and FCS foe South Carolina State) but have yet to allow more than 27.

The Tigers went from averaging an appalling 15.2 points in their first six games against FBS opponents to 34.7 in the last three. But the underlying numbers suggest the improvement is pretty marginal. They averaged 4.6 yards per play in those first six games but have improved to only 5.0 since; quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei's passer rating has gone up, but only from 100.1 in the first six to a still-awful 116.0. He was just 21 for 44 with a pick against UConn. Wake's defense is incredibly beatable, and the Clemson defense is easily the best the Deacs have faced this year. But the Deacs probably won't need to score 50 to win this one.


Week 12 playlist

Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives. There's a lot going on!

Friday night

Memphis at No. 24 Houston (9 p.m., ESPN2). Houston has rolled to nine straight wins since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech. The Coogs are aggressive and exciting, but Memphis-Houston games tend to get wild: Five of the last seven have been decided by one score.

Early Saturday

Iowa State at No. 13 Oklahoma (noon, Fox). If OU has any shot of getting back into the CFP discussion, the Sooners probably need to maul Iowa State on the road. Easier said than done: Despite being 6-4, the Cyclones are only a few bounces away from having the season they were supposed to have.

Saturday afternoon

Georgia Tech at No. 8 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame has very much looked the part of a contender lately. Can a competitive (but never too competitive) Tech squad do anything to knock the Irish off of their rhythm?

No. 6 Michigan at Maryland (3:30 p.m., BTN). Maryland has beaten every iffy team on the schedule and lost comfortably to every good one. Can the Terrapins finally put the pieces together and scare a solid opponent? Or is Michigan's defense just too good at this point?

Nebraska at No. 15 Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., ABC). Wisconsin has won its last four games by an average of 36-8, but Nebraska has scared quite a few awesome teams this season. Is this where the Huskers finally score a big upset, or does Wisconsin keep rolling toward the Big Ten West title?

UAB at No. 22 UTSA (3:30 p.m., ESPN+). With a win, UAB would not only knock UTSA from the ranks of the unbeaten but also put itself in the driver's seat for the Conference USA West crown. Both teams have killer run defenses and explosive passing games. This should be a blast.

Saturday evening

No. 11 Baylor at Kansas State (5:30 p.m., FS1). Baylor has been elite at home, but the Bears' last two road trips -- losses at Oklahoma State and TCU -- have relegated them to understudies in the Big 12 race. Can they stay in the running by taking down smoking-hot K-State in Manhattan?

Virginia Tech at Miami (7:30 p.m., ACCN). Virginia Tech is already employing an interim head coach after parting ways with Justin Fuente, and Miami's Manny Diaz might need to win his next two games to avoid the same fate. Every Miami game comes down to the wire, too -- anxiety is all but assured.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (8 p.m., Fox). OSU has beaten its last three foes by a combined 142-23; if the Pokes keep playing like this, they could still charge their way into the CFP discussion. But Tech just beat an awfully good Iowa State team at home. This one might not be a gimme.

Saturday night

Arizona State at Oregon State (10:30 p.m., ESPN). ASU will need Utah to lose twice to have a shot at the Pac-12 South title, but no matter the stakes, the run games of both the Sun Devils and Oregon State are appointment viewing.

Small-school showcase

The 24-team Division II and 32-team Division III tournaments both get underway this weekend, and we've got some potential classics right out of the gate. Always remember: The more small-school football you watch, the healthier you become.

D2: No. 19 Slippery Rock at No. 6 Notre Dame (Ohio) (noon, streaming at https://team1sports.com/notredamefalcons/). The last time these teams played, Slippery Rock won a 2019 playoff classic, 65-59. Their offenses aren't quite that ferocious this time around, but fireworks are still likely.

D2: No. 13 West Georgia at No. 16 Albany State (1 p.m., streaming at https://vcloud.blueframetech.com/broadcast/embed/325475). Albany State might have the best defense in Division II. West Georgia's up-tempo offense features former Memphis receiver Mechane Slade and former NAIA All-American Terrill Cole. Either of these teams could make a deep run.

D3: No. 16 Trinity at No. 2 Mary Hardin-Baylor (1 p.m., streaming at https://portal.stretchinternet.com/umhb/). Trinity is 9-0 and averaging 47 points per game. Quarterback Tucker Horn has a 33-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. The Tigers' reward for an awesome season? A first-round date with the 2016 and 2018 national champions.

FCS: No. 3 Montana State at No. 7 Montana (2 p.m., ESPN+). The FCS game of the week. Montana State has won nine in a row since a tight defeat at Wyoming and hasn't lost to Montana since 2015. But Bobby Hauck's Grizzlies are 8-2 and have won their last two games by a combined 65-3.

FCS: North Dakota at No. 13 South Dakota State (3 p.m., ESPN+). After a Hail Mary loss to South Dakota last weekend, SDSU is 7-3. If the Jackrabbits want to assure themselves a playoff spot, they need to rally against running back Otis Weah and a rock solid North Dakota squad.