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Updated bowl projections and analysis: How CFP rankings shake things up

The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, shaping the conversation not just for the top four contenders and the national championship race, but also the remainder of the New Year's Six matchups and beyond.

What does it all mean to the bowl picture? Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura predict all the bowl matchups and provide analysis on which teams were helped and hurt the most from the initial CFP rankings and what was the biggest surprise.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Alabama

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Cincinnati

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Ohio State


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Michigan

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Utah vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Oregon

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma vs. Auburn
Schlabach: Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss


Team that got the biggest boost from the CFP rankings

Bonagura: Oregon. The committee did the right thing by keeping Oregon ahead of Ohio State, but it certainly wasn't a guarantee that would be the case. When looking at their résumés, the head-to-head should be the tiebreaker at this point. Oregon won soundly in the Horseshoe without its best player, Kayvon Thibodeaux. It's simple. There is also validity to the argument that Ohio State is playing better right now. Most people wouldn't dispute that, but as we've learned after years of seeing this process play out, right now doesn't matter. The Buckeyes have more potential résumé-boosting opportunities remaining on their schedule than Oregon. In the end, that likely won't have much impact on the Ducks. There isn't a hypothetical situation where Oregon wins out and remains behind Michigan State and Ohio State. What matters more here is that the Ducks are ahead of Oklahoma and Cincinnati.

Schlabach: Alabama. I'm not really surprised the Crimson Tide were No. 2 behind SEC rival Georgia. Alabama looks like the second-best team in the FBS in terms of talent. And let's face it: The Crimson Tide are always going to get the benefit of doubt from the CFP selection committee as long as Nick Saban is coaching. The overriding question when things get close in the debate room is: Who wouldn't you want to play right now? And very few teams would want to play the Tide. That being said, I still think it's going to be difficult for Alabama to get into the CFP unless it can win out and defeat Georgia in the SEC championship game. There's just not enough meat on Alabama's overall body of work with Florida, Miami and LSU struggling.

Team whose NY6 chances were hurt most by the CFP rankings

Bonagura: Cincinnati. At No. 6, the Bearcats will undoubtedly be disappointed. It's an incredibly high ranking for a Group of 5 team, but it shows that even with a top-10 road win (Notre Dame), Cincinnati isn't going to get the benefit of the doubt. Four spots lower than its No. 2 AP ranking is quite notable. That's not to say it's game over for Cincinnati. If No. 4 Oregon, No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 9 Wake Forest stumble at some point -- very likely! -- it creates a relatively straightforward path to the playoff. If Cincinnati wins out, it'll be firmly in the mix.

Schlabach: The sky is falling in Cincinnati (and on Twitter) after the Bearcats were No. 6 in the initial CFP rankings, and I'm not exactly sure why. I thought it was exactly where the Bearcats should be based on their résumé so far. Their victory at Notre Dame was one of the better nonconference wins of the season. A win at Indiana apparently didn't carry much weight with the committee -- the Hoosiers haven't defeated a Power 5 opponent this season -- and UCF is the only other team with a winning record that Cincinnati has beaten. I think a lot of people are overreacting to the initial rankings. They're just that -- the first ones. If Cincinnati wins out and beats SMU and potentially Houston in the AAC championship, it will be in a good position to get one of the four spots, especially if Alabama loses and Ohio State, Oregon or Michigan State falter down the stretch.


Biggest surprise from the CFP rankings

Bonagura: Oklahoma. The Sooners have consistently underwhelmed against subpar competition since the opening game of the season, but it's still somewhat jarring to see Oklahoma all the way down at No. 8 with a 9-0 record. Credit the committee for not bowing to the brand.

Schlabach: The Sooners haven't been great, but as Kyle points out, they're still 9-0 and playing in a Power 5 conference. The offense sputtered early, but it has been much better since freshman Caleb Williams replaced Spencer Rattler as the starting quarterback. The Sooners scored more than 50 points in three of the past four games. OU's nonconference schedule (Tulane, FCS foe Western Carolina and Nebraska) wasn't great, especially with the Green Wave and Cornhuskers struggling mightily. Like Cincinnati, the Sooners have plenty of room to move up, especially if they can win upcoming games against No. 12 Baylor, Iowa State and No. 11 Oklahoma State.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Kent State vs. Florida Atlantic

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kent State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. UAB

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Charlotte vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Toledo

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. Norfolk State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boise State vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Nevada vs. Miami (Ohio)

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio
Schlabach: BYU vs. Texas-San Antonio

Bonagura's most intriguing matchup: UTSA has been one of the stories of the season and its 8-0 start made coach Jeff Traylor one of the more attractive coaching candidates for Power 5 schools (hello, Texas Tech) before he signed a contract extension Sunday. The Roadrunners haven't played a team nearly as good as BYU, though, so this would be a good test to see how they stack up when the stakes are raised.

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. San Jose State
Schlabach: Louisiana Monroe vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: USC vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Fresno State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UAB
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall

Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic
Schlabach: Charlotte vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. Nevada
Schlabach: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Air Force vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Utah State vs. UTEP

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: West Virginia vs. Houston
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. Air Force

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: LSU vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Liberty vs. Virginia Tech

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Diego State vs. Washington
Schlabach: San Jose State vs. SMU

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: Ball State vs. Georgia State

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Eastern Michigan
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Central Florida
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. East Carolina

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Missouri vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Tennessee vs. Central Florida

Schlabach's most intriguing matchup: First-year Volunteers coach Josh Heupel bailed on the Knights after only three seasons to join former UCF athletic director Danny White at Tennessee. After helping Scott Frost guide the Knights to a 13-0 record in 2017, Heupel led his teams to a 28-8 record in three seasons, winning 22 in the first two. It's been an up-and-down maiden season for him at Tennessee, and facing his former team probably isn't how he'd want to spend the postseason.

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: UTEP vs. Army
Schlabach: Houston vs. Washington

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Texas vs. Mississippi State

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: NC State vs. Arizona State

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Maryland vs. Texas
Schlabach: Maryland vs. West Virginia

Dec. 29

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. SMU
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Memphis

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Purdue vs. Clemson

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. NC State
Schlabach: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Washington State
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Utah

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Tennessee vs. Miami
Schlabach: Florida vs. North Carolina

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Penn State
Schlabach: LSU vs. Penn State

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Washington State

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Virginia

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Miami vs. Oregon State

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Utah State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: San Diego State vs. USC

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Florida
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Texas A&M

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Minnesota

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Arkansas