After a couple of weeks of lower-magnitude games, the fight card for Week 9 of the college football season is an absolute knockout. The main event -- the first Michigan-Michigan State game between AP top-10 teams since 1964 -- has massive implications, but the undercard is one of the deepest of the season.
We'll learn a ton about how the Big Ten and Big 12 races will play out, and we get Georgia's revenge attempt over a Florida team that lapped it a year ago. We have full-on rock fights (Iowa-Wisconsin), potential points festivals (Virginia-BYU) and everything in between.
Here's everything you need to know about a mammoth weekend of college football.
The battle to become Ohio State's top contender
No. 6 Michigan at No. 8 Michigan State (noon, Fox)
The round robin of the Big Ten East's primary contenders has finally begun. Granted, Ohio State-Penn State has lost some luster with the Nittany Lions' back-to-back losses, but the stakes in East Lansing are as big as they've ever been for the Michigan-Michigan State rivalry.
We might finally learn what happens when Michigan has to pass
Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines found they suddenly had a lot to fix this past offseason. The offense had averaged just 18 points per game in four losses and was mostly starting over at quarterback. The defense had allowed 35 points per game, and Harbaugh decided to replace legendary coordinator Don Brown with a fresh face: former Baltimore Ravens assistant Mike Macdonald.
The changes have worked beautifully. The Wolverines have scored at least 31 points in six of seven games while also allowing 17 or fewer in six. They got sucked into a slog against Rutgers and needed some late heroics to win at snakebitten Nebraska, but they've still outscored opponents by an average of 23.4 points, and they're seventh in my SP+ rankings and fourth in ESPN's FPI.
The defense has been well-rounded and organized, but the offense might still be worrisome. The thunder-and-lightning duo of Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum has combined for 1,331 rushing yards and 20 TDs, and quarterback Cade McNamara is completing 63% of his passes and almost completely avoiding sacks. They're mixing in tempo at times, which can multiply the effect of the run game. It's a fun attack. But McNamara's pass map to date is, to put it charitably, incomplete.
McNamara is 24-for-25 on passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, and he's 25-for-31 on passes thrown short and to the right. Outside of those zones, however, McNamara is just 43-for-90. He's just 7-for-22 on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield -- a stat noteworthy both for the low completion rate (32%) and the low frequency of attempts (barely three per game). While the Wolverines rank 30th in rushing success rate, they're just 104th in passing success rate. They run the ball as frequently as almost any non-triple option offense in the country; they openly avoid passing, and when they do it, it's short and to the right.
Opponents have almost certainly caught on to this tendency, but they haven't been able to do much about it to date. The run game is indeed strong, and if Michigan doesn't score, it's fine -- the defense is going to make sure opponents don't either. But what happens if State hits a couple of early big plays, forces Michigan to the air a bit more and pounces on McNamara's obvious tendencies?
The big play battle belongs to Michigan State
The explosions created by the Michigan State offense have gotten plenty of attention. Running back Kenneth Walker III is averaging 6.6 yards per carry and has proven equally potent both between and outside of the tackles. The receiver trio of Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed and Tre Mosley has combined for 1,395 yards (20.2 per catch) and 11 TDs. Reed also is maybe the most dangerous return man in the country.
The Spartans' attack still ranks only 33rd in points per drive and 50th in success rate, though. Explosions are great, but relying on them makes you inconsistent. And the State defense, which ranks 12th in defensive SP+, has been as responsible or even more so for the team's 7-0 start.
MSU has held six of seven opponents under 21 points, with the lone exception a Western Kentucky offense that puts 30-plus on everyone. This is an old-school, Big-Ten-to-the-core defense that prevents big plays, waits for mistakes and dominates in the red zone. The Spartans rank sixth in explosive play rate allowed (passes of 16 or more yards, rushes of 12 or more), sixth in goal-to-go touchdown rate and seventh in points allowed per scoring opportunity. They'll let you move the ball between the 30s, but that's it.
This corresponds beautifully with Michigan's offensive weaknesses -- the Wolverines are 91st in explosive play rate and 79th in goal-to-go TD rate. They've settled for far too many field goals, and while it hasn't cost them yet, there's still time. If Michigan stalls out quite a bit and only gets three points from scoring chances, it won't take that many chunk plays for Sparty to take control of the game. And they'll make at least a few.
The Spartans have produced at least 11 explosive plays (as defined above) in five of their seven wins; even against a defense that mostly hems them in, they are probably going to land more shots than they allow. Only one team (WKU) has generated more than 10 explosive plays against them, and in the one instance that an opponent generated more big plays than they did (Nebraska), Reed turned the game around with a 62-yard punt return score.
The Spartans are reminiscent of the 2016 Penn State team -- the Nittany Lions were not as consistent offensively as their 2017 team would be, but they knew they could create explosions, and they won the Big Ten with that recipe. With a win on Saturday, Michigan State could be on its way toward doing the same thing.
The Big Ten undercard
No. 9 Iowa at Wisconsin (noon, ESPN)
No. 20 Penn State at No. 5 Ohio State (7:30 p.m., ABC)
It's just like Ohio State to butt into the conversation. Despite their early loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes have looked so otherworldly of late that they've soared past everyone else in the Big Ten in both the computer rankings (they're first in SP+ and third in FPI) and polls (they've jumped unbeaten counterparts Michigan and Michigan State into fifth in the AP). The work is only beginning, though.
Indeed, this week's Big Ten fight card dimmed a bit with Penn State's two losses and Iowa's stumble against Purdue. Still, Iowa controls its destiny in the Big Ten West, and from a pure athleticism standpoint, Penn State is one of the few teams that can compete with Ohio State's absurd offense.
It almost goes without saying that the X-factor in the Iowa-Wisconsin rock fight is turnovers. Wisconsin has plenty of edges otherwise: The Badgers' defense is as comprehensively dominant as any outside of Athens, Georgia, and their offense is far stronger at staying ahead of the chains than Iowa's -- they're 52nd in offensive success rate, and the Hawkeyes are a dismal 119th. But the ball-hawking Iowa secondary has picked off at least three passes in four games and allowed just a 101.7 passer rating. It is stingy enough that it took a superhuman performance from Purdue receiver David Bell (11 catches, 240 yards) just for the Boilermakers to score 24 points.
Pair that with Wisconsin's biggest issue to date, and you can see how problems could arise. Quarterback Graham Mertz threw a combined six interceptions in losses to Penn State and Notre Dame, and his passer rating (103.3) suggests that he turns every pass defense into Iowa's. What disasters may loom if he has to throw quite a bit against the actual Iowa secondary?
The key to Penn State-Ohio State, meanwhile, is going to be the key to every remaining Ohio State game this year: How many stops can the opposing defense make? The Buckeyes are not only first in offensive SP+, they're 4.5 points ahead of the No. 2 attack. Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have combined for 1,674 receiving yards, while TreVeyon Henderson, Master Teague III and Miyan Williams have combined for 1,247 rushing yards. This is easily the scariest skill corps in the country. The Buckeyes are virtually perfect in the red zone too, and they almost totally avoid negative plays. First-year starting quarterback C.J. Stroud leads the country with a 91.7 Total QBR.
It's become noteworthy anytime the Buckeyes don't score. They scored touchdowns on all six of their first-half drives against Indiana last Saturday -- a week after Indiana had held Michigan State to 20 points and five explosive plays, no less -- and they've averaged 58 points per game and 8.7 yards per play over the past four games.
Penn State is sixth in defensive SP+ and prevents both big plays and red zone touchdowns as well as any defense in FBS. But how many stops can we expect even an awesome defense to make against the Buckeyes? And while Penn State coach James Franklin says quarterback Sean Clifford will be 100% healthy -- Clifford got hurt against Iowa and was clearly limited against Illinois -- do the Nittany Lions have any hope of keeping up with OSU in a track meet? Can they hog the ball enough to keep the Ohio State offense off the field despite what has been a terribly disappointing run game to date?
Can Florida ding the Georgia defense again?
No. 1 Georgia vs. Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Florida-Georgia has also lost a bit of luster due to a string of close Florida losses, but the 4-3 Gators are one of the only teams to have seen any success whatsoever in moving the football against Georgia in recent years, and they have the upside to do some damage if the top-ranked Dawgs are in any way lacking focus.
Florida has been quite close to something greater. The Gators outgained their opponents in all three tight losses. My postgame win expectancy measure -- which takes the key, predictive stats from a given game, tosses them into the air and says, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time" -- suggests Florida was slightly superior in all three losses. The Gators had a 58% postgame win expectancy against Alabama, 63% against Kentucky and 51% against LSU. SP+ continues to rank them highly, viewing them as something far closer to 6-1 than 4-3.
Georgia, of course, has left nothing to doubt. The Dawgs haven't allowed more than 13 points in a game, and they've scored less than 30 just once. Considering the Gators' defense is less disruptive than normal and ranks just 90th in rushing success rate allowed, it's hard to see Florida making a ton of stops. But it still has the offensive upside to make Georgia sweat for a while. Gators quarterback Anthony Richardson is averaging 12.4 yards per carry and 18.7 yards per completion as he slowly reels in Emory Jones for the first-string job, and Jacob Copeland is possibly the most dangerous receiver a banged-up Georgia secondary has faced this season.
The Big 12 race is only getting started
Texas at No. 16 Baylor (noon, ABC)
No. 22 Iowa State at West Virginia (2 p.m., ESPN+)
Texas Tech at No. 4 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC)
With every close Oklahoma win, the Sooners, somehow still unbeaten, get another chance to find an elusive fifth gear. Five of their eight wins have come by one score, and last week's 12-point margin over Kansas is misleading -- OU trailed until the fourth quarter and needed a controversial and spectacular play from quarterback Caleb Williams to seal the win.
Tight wins count in the standings, but they don't impress the computers. OU is down to 11th in SP+, which projects the Sooners as only slight favorites in three of their final four regular-season games and gives them just a 15% chance of reaching 12-0. If they indeed slip up, that could make the battle for both spots in the Big 12 championship quite interesting. Either way, there's still one spot totally up for grabs. FPI gives Iowa State, Oklahoma State and Baylor each between a 23% and 44% chance of reaching the title game, with Texas still looming at 9%.
Baylor and Texas will face off in Waco in an elimination game early on Saturday. The teams have two of the most exciting run games in the country, and while Texas' offense is more well-rounded, the Longhorns' defense has been frustrating, especially late in losses to OU and OSU.
The other two key Big 12 battles aren't projected quite as tightly but remain interesting. A week after an emotional win over Oklahoma State, Iowa State heads to Morgantown to face a West Virginia team good enough to nearly win at Oklahoma but bad enough to lose at home to Texas Tech and get smoked by Baylor. The Mountaineers are maddeningly unpredictable, which makes them an upset threat until otherwise noted. Meanwhile, OU faces a Texas Tech team that offers its own wild-card status: The Red Raiders are exciting on offense (as long as they can stay on schedule, at least) and are coming to town with an interim coach after firing Matt Wells. They could lay an egg or play great ball with nothing to lose.
The LaVell Edwards Bowl is going to rule
Virginia at No. 25 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN2)
You've got a delightful nightcap awaiting you Saturday night on ESPN2, as former BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall flies his smoking-hot Virginia Cavaliers across the country to Provo, Utah, to face the 6-2 Cougars.
BYU has a well-rounded offense and a bend-don't-break defense that probably bends too much but limits big plays. That ability will be tested Saturday night, as Virginia's offense has become one of the country's most explosive.
Cavs quarterback Brennan Armstrong has been overshadowed a bit in the ACC by the rise of Pitt's Kenny Pickett, but his improvement has been jarring -- Armstrong has jumped from 73rd to 18th in Total QBR. The Hoos haven't ranked in even the top 40 in offensive SP+ since 2004, but they're currently seventh, and vertical passing is the primary reason why. On passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield in 2020, Armstrong completed 41% at just 9.7 yards per attempt with an interception rate of 8.2%. This year: 58% completion rate, 12.5 yards per attempt, 2.5% interception rate.
He has completed 31 of 45 such passes to Dontayvion Wicks for 725 yards and six touchdowns, while Keytaon Thompson, Ra'Shaun Henry, Billy Kemp IV and tight end Jelani Woods have each caught at least 11 such passes. One of the more well-touted members of Virginia's 2019 recruiting class, Wicks caught only three passes as a freshman and missed all of 2020 with injury. But he has been one of 2021's breakout stars. And for added viewing enjoyment, the Virginia defense is as glitchy as the offense is awesome. Whatever points you don't get from Iowa-Wisconsin could make an appearance in Provo.
Week 8 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
Look, there's football on, and you can watch it -- especially the games on the ESPN family of networks. But I can't in good conscience use one of my 10 choices on anything in this slot. There's too much else going down on Saturday.
Early Saturday
No. 2 Cincinnati at Tulane (noon, ESPN2). How does Cincinnati respond to its first genuinely disappointing performance of the season (a narrow win at Navy)? Does it matter against a Tulane team that has fallen apart over the past month?
Miami at No. 17 Pitt (noon, ACCN). Four years ago, Miami was on the doorstep of a potential College Football Playoff bid, and a freshman quarterback named Kenny Pickett helped pilot Pitt to a huge upset. Now Pickett's Panthers are contenders, and Miami and its freshman quarterback, Tyler Van Dyke, can try to turn the tables.
Saturday afternoon
Florida State at Clemson (3:30 p.m., ESPN). FSU is on a hot streak, primarily because of its run game. Clemson, for all of its issues, still dominates most run games. This is the most low-stakes Clemson-FSU game for quite a while, but it's still an interesting chess match.
Duke at No. 13 Wake Forest (4 p.m., ACCN). Wake has got a unique and nearly elite offense and a defense that can keep any opponent in the game. Can the Demon Deacons enjoy their first drama-free win since September?
FCS: No. 3 Southern Illinois at No. 17 Northern Iowa (5 p.m., ESPN+). How good is the Missouri Valley? Northern Iowa is 4-3 but is still nearly ranked in the top 15 of the FCS poll. The Panthers are eighth in my FCS SP+ rankings, having beaten the No. 2 team and lost only to the teams ranked first and 10th and Iowa State. Southern Illinois has lost only to Kansas State. Either of these teams could win the MAC this year.
Saturday evening
No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 18 Auburn (7 p.m., ESPN). Ole Miss handled its business with aplomb against LSU last week, but now comes a trip to the Plains to face a rested Auburn team that has proven capable of just about anything good or bad this year.
No. 12 Kentucky at Mississippi State (7 p.m., SECN). Last time out, Kentucky lost a big game of burly man ball against Georgia; now the Wildcats will have to play a different sport, locking horns with an MSU team almost guaranteed to throw 50+ times.
No. 19 SMU at Houston (7 p.m., ESPN2). Two rivals, two high-personality coaches, two aggressive defenses, big conference title stakes and a one-point spread. What more could you possibly ask for in life?
North Carolina at No. 11 Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., NBC). UNC keeps oscillating between great and terrible. Notre Dame should have the edge, but missing all-world safety Kyle Hamilton could be costly if UNC's Sam Howell has time to pass.
Late Saturday
Fresno State at No. 21 San Diego State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). Fresno State passes well and prevents you from doing the same. SDSU plays killer defense and, in Matt Araiza, has the best punter known to man. This one should come down to the wire.