After years of chalk-heavy college football seasons, the regulator is off. Chaos reigns. Forty ranked teams have already lost in 2021 -- the most through six weeks in the poll era -- and we've already checked quite a few boxes on the checklist I created back in August on how we might have a season turned upside down.
Top teams lose early: CHECK! Alabama fell to Texas A&M in Week 6, and other potential No. 1 teams Ohio State and Clemson lost even earlier than that.
Preseason top-10 teams bomb: CHECK! Texas A&M (preseason No. 6), Iowa State (No. 7) and North Carolina (No. 10) have all suffered multiple losses, while only Oklahoma (No. 2), Georgia (No. 5) and Cincinnati (No. 8) remain unbeaten. OU has needed a string of tight wins to pull that off.
A mid-major power rises: CHECK! Cincinnati is up to third in the AP poll, the highest standing for a team from a non-power conference since TCU finished second in 2010.
Less successful programs rise high in the rankings. CHECK! No. 2 Iowa hadn't ranked that high since 1985, and Cincinnati's No. 3 ranking is its highest ever. For that matter, Georgia hadn't been ranked No. 1 since 2008.
Title hopes abound in late October: It's not late October yet, but ESPN's FPI gives 15 teams at least a 3% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. Seven have at least a 25% chance, which is a pretty good reminder of how unsettled the environment remains.
There's almost certainly more chaos to come.
Generating the first round of wackiness is the hardest part. It requires some genuinely surprising and impactful results. But once you've pulled that off, and the apple cart is officially upset, the chaos sustains itself. Teams end up with higher rankings and better records than their on-paper prowess reflects, they get knocked off and on we go.
Right now, 10 teams in the AP Top 25 are at least 10 spots higher than their respective SP+ rankings: No. 2 Iowa (16th in SP+), No. 3 Cincinnati (13th), No. 11 Kentucky (30th), No. 12 Oklahoma State (33rd), No. 16 Wake Forest (48th), No. 17 Arkansas (28th), No. 19 BYU (43rd), No. 22 NC State (37th), No. 23 SMU (44th) and No. 24 San Diego State (42nd). Either most of these teams lose as projected in the coming weeks, resulting in another few wacky Saturdays and more churn in the polls, or they reach the finish line with high rankings and we get a fun, new list of teams occupying CFP spots and major bowl bids. One way or the other, we win. How did we get here? It's been a truly wild season so far. Why now? How did this come about?
I think 2021's silliness was due in part to a confluence of factors.
Last year's three best teams all lost historically great quarterbacks. Alabama's Mac Jones and Ohio State's Justin Fields were first and second in Total QBR last year, and both were selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Clemson's Trevor Lawrence was considered the most no-brainer NFL prospect in quite some time and went No. 1 overall. Even when you recruit like these teams do, you run the risk of momentary regression when you lose players of this caliber.
Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has struggled succeeding Lawrence, and while Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud have both been mostly awesome, they both suffered glitches, particularly in the red zone, in their teams' respective losses.
These three teams have been particularly responsible for the recent run of chalk in college football, so any regression from them was going to make things feel a bit more unsteady at the top.
Defenses have continued to catch up to offenses. It was noteworthy that the best offenses of the past two seasons were the ones with all the talent. The 2019 LSU and 2020 Alabama offenses were nearly perfect -- two of the best ever -- and have already produced an impressive number of professional standouts.
The fact that it took the most talented teams to create these offenses was a tell. During the early days of the spread offense's evolution, the tactical edges derived from it outpaced defenses in ways that allowed teams like Baylor, Louisville, Texas Tech and especially Oregon to field elite offenses with primarily three-star recruits and a smattering of four-stars. Defenses have wiped out some of those edges.
Ohio State's recent improvement could render this statement outdated soon, but to date there hasn't been an LSU- or Alabama-level confluence of fully-developed star talent on any one offense in 2021. That has allowed these ongoing defensive improvements to take center stage.
While efficiency numbers continue to creep upward across college football, big-play rates are sinking.
Looking only at games between power conference teams to assure an apples-to-apples comparison, the average offensive success rate is 43.8%. (For our purposes, success rate is how often a team gains 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second down or 100% on third or fourth down.) It has risen steadily over the past decade.
But the national rate of explosive plays -- the frequency of either rushes of at least 12 yards or passes of at least 16 -- is 12.0%, the lowest since 2012. Teams are therefore averaging 26.0 offensive points per game, down from 27.8 in 2020 and the lowest mark of the past 10 years.
That seems to have opened the door for teams with particularly innovative and effective defenses -- hello, Georgia, Iowa and Cincinnati -- to stand out quite a bit.
The super senior effect. One of the most interesting topics heading into the season was what role super seniors might have on the season as a whole. The NCAA granted everyone involved in 2020's pandemic season an extra year of eligibility, and more importantly, allowed teams to go over their 85 scholarship limit in 2021 to account for this. That meant record-high returning production numbers and deeper rosters than we typically see.
Granted, not every team that returned particularly high levels of production have thrived this season, but it would stand to reason that the teams at the bottom of the production list -- Northwestern, for instance, plus elites with early losses (Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame) -- might be even more vulnerable to stumbles than usual.
If 2007 is our guide, things could start getting really silly
Anytime anyone speaks of college football chaos, 2007 comes to mind. It was the strangest and most action-packed season of the 21st century -- maybe of all time -- and it thus provides a useful road map for what's potentially on the horizon.
By this point in 2007, we'd already seen a couple of historic upsets (Appalachian State over Michigan, Stanford over USC), but much of what we would come to remember about the season -- the long run of No. 2 teams losing, LSU's two multi-OT losses, unexpectedly huge late-season matchups such as Missouri-Kansas -- hadn't yet taken root.
Week 7 of 2007 didn't seem to feature many marquee games, but No. 17 Kentucky upset top-ranked LSU in triple overtime and Oregon State knocked off a Cal team that, like some of the teams referenced above, had a poll ranking (No. 2) much higher than its computer ranking. It was the second week in a row that the No. 2 team lost; it would happen in five of the next seven weeks as well.
While we might not follow the 2007 example and knock out the No. 1 and 2 teams -- no matter how tantalizing it is that Kentucky is again playing the No. 1 team this week -- here's a reminder that no one has a better than 34% chance of reaching 12-0 at the moment, per SP+. Not even Georgia. There are lots more losses to come up top.
No. 1 Georgia (6-0): 31% chance of reaching 12-0, per SP+ (most likely losses: 61% win probability vs. Florida, 72% at Tennessee, 87% vs. Kentucky)
No. 2 Iowa (6-0): 6% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 35% win probability at Wisconsin, 50% at Nebraska, 67% vs. Minnesota)
No. 3 Cincinnati (5-0): 32% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 74% win probability vs. SMU, 77% vs. UCF, 86% vs. Tulsa)
No. 4 Oklahoma (6-0): 11% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 56% win probability at Baylor, 57% vs. Iowa State, 61% at Oklahoma State)
No. 8 Michigan (6-0): 3% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 35% win probability vs. Ohio State, 42% at Penn State, 52% at Michigan State)
No. 10 Michigan State (6-0): 1% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 19% win probability at Ohio State, 45% vs. Penn State, 48% vs. Michigan)
No. 11 Kentucky (6-0): 2% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 14% win probability at Georgia, 44% at Mississippi State, 47% vs. Tennessee)
No. 12 Oklahoma State (5-0): 1% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 30% win probability at Iowa State, 39% vs. Oklahoma, 43% at Texas)
No. 15 Coastal Carolina (6-0): 34% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 55% win probability at Appalachian State, 85% vs. Troy, 89% at South Alabama)
No. 16 Wake Forest (6-0): 4% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 14% win probability at Clemson, 30% at North Carolina, 38% at Boston College)
No. 23 SMU (6-0): 3% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 26% win probability at Cincinnati, 52% at Houston, 60% vs. UCF)
No. 24 San Diego State (5-0): 5% chance of reaching 12-0 (most likely losses: 50% win probability at Air Force, 53% vs. Fresno State, 63% vs. Boise State)
At the moment, only two power conference teams -- Georgia and Oklahoma -- even have a better than one-in-three chance of finishing at least 11-1. There are a lot more losses to come for top teams.
Eight chaos teams
Here are eight teams that could play a key role in future chaos.
1-2. Michigan State and Penn State: The unbeaten Spartans and one-loss Nittany Lions get shots at contenders -- Ohio State, Michigan and, of course, each other (plus, in theory, Iowa in the Big Ten Championship) -- in the coming weeks.
3. Tennessee: Josh Heupel's Volunteers have found fifth gear on offense, and they get shots at not only Alabama and Georgia, but also Ole Miss and Kentucky. They might not end up near the top of the SEC standings, but they'll have a clear role in determining who does.
4. Nebraska: The Huskers have already almost taken down Oklahoma, Michigan State and Michigan. They still get shots at Ohio State and Iowa as well. Granted, they've been particularly creative in the ways they've gone about losing these games, and that could continue, but they're an extremely tough out.
5. Clemson: Technically the two-loss Tigers might still have a shot at a CFP bid if they win out and things get particularly strange. But with games against both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest in the coming weeks, they'll also have a clear role in whether the ACC has a playoff contender at all.
6. Iowa State: Matt Campbell's Cyclones have a chance at a major redemption arc. They outgained both Iowa and Baylor by more than 200 yards in early-season losses, they're still 11th in SP+ and they still could ruin Oklahoma's title chances on one of two potential opportunities. They also play Oklahoma State next week, in case the Cowboys remain unbeaten.
7. SMU: It would help Cincinnati's résumé immensely if the Mustangs were to remain unbeaten between now and their Nov. 20 trip to Nippert Stadium. But they also might be good enough to potentially beat Cincinnati.
8. Arizona State: Let's be honest: The Sun Devils belong on any list of chaos teams no matter the context. They're wild and aggressive and ridiculously fun to watch. But at 5-1, they could win out and make a CFP run, and they also could provide major resistance to a potential 11-1 Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship.
What's at stake in Week 7
There's a chance that Week 7 is a quiet one. There are only two matchups of ranked teams, only seven top-10 teams are playing at all and only one is favored by less than double digits (Michigan State is currently -4.5 at Indiana). There's still plenty to pay attention to, however. Here are five storylines to watch.
All times below are Eastern.
Can Georgia avoid vulnerability against Cruiserweight Georgia (aka Kentucky)?
No. 11 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Mark Stoops' Wildcats have reached 6-0 by playing the most physical football this side of Athens. Now they head to Athens. It's hard to see where UK can create many matchup advantages, but it's not out of the question that it could force Georgia into the must-pass situations the Dawgs have avoided all season and throw a scare into the home team.
Purdue's underrated defense could keep Iowa uncomfortably close
Purdue at No. 2 Iowa (3:30 p.m., ABC)
The past three Iowa-Purdue games have been decided by a combined 12 points. The Boilermakers took down an awesome Hawkeyes team to start the 2020 season, and with a defense that ranks fifth in success rate allowed and 10th in points allowed per drive, it wouldn't take many breaks for them to take the Hawkeyes down to the wire.
It's hard to overstate how fun Ole Miss-Tennessee could be
No. 13 Ole Miss at Tennessee (7:30 p.m., SECN)
Ole Miss is averaging 53 points per game against teams not named Alabama. Tennessee has put up 107 points and 1,155 yards in the past two weeks. I made the under one of my best bets of the week because I'm a fuddy-dud, but there could be some absolute haymakers in this one.
UConn's best remaining chance at a win
Yale at UConn (noon, CBSSN)
SP+ projects the Ivy League's Bulldogs as a comfortable favorite over winless UConn. If UConn doesn't win this one, its odds of finishing 0-12 jump from 47%, per SP+, to 66%. Yikes.
The start of a redemption story in Chapel Hill?
Miami at North Carolina (3:30 p.m., ACC Network)
Injuries and other personnel issues have forced the Hurricanes into an unexpected youth movement, and it hasn't gone well. Miami is just 2-3, and it has between a 34% and 73% win probability in every remaining game this season, per SP+. That means a surge to 8-4 and a collapse to 4-8 are both still very much on the table.
Mack Brown's Tar Heels need a redemption arc as badly as the Canes: They're just 3-3 after starting out in the top 10. While Brown can pretend to blame the media for the high expectations if he really wants, this has been a massive disappointment. But a hot finish is still on the table.
Week 7 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
FCS: No. 9 Montana State at No. 18 Weber State (10 p.m. ESPNU). Montana State ranks second in my FCS SP+ rankings, with only a tight loss at Wyoming marring a perfect record. Meanwhile, Weber State has lost only to awesome teams and is a constant source of drama.
California at No. 9 Oregon (10:30 p.m., ESPN). After a bye week to stew following its loss to Stanford, Oregon now has to run the table to hold on to playoff hopes. Step one: taking down a Cal team that can run the football ... and do little else.
Early Saturday
No. 12 Oklahoma State at No. 25 Texas (noon, Fox). The OSU offense is painfully inconsistent, but the Pokes' aggressive and well-rounded defense should give them a fighting chance against Bijan Robinson and an increasingly ridiculous Texas attack.
UCF at No. 3 Cincinnati (noon, ABC). Almost no one in the AAC can hang with Cincinnati athletically the way Central Florida can, but the Knights are scuffling in quarterback Dillon Gabriel's absence. The past two UCF-Cincy games were each decided by three points; can the Knights throw a scare into its future Big 12 rivals?
No. 10 Michigan State at Indiana (noon, FS1). Indiana has already played three current top-10 teams and has three more on the schedule. That's brutal, but the Hoosiers are still talented enough to score an upset. Their defense is solid, but can they keep a trio of brilliant Spartans playmakers (Kenneth Walker III, Jayden Reed, Jalen Nailor) in check?
Saturday afternoon
D2: No. 3 Valdosta State at No. 10 West Alabama (2 p.m., FloFootball). We've got a pair of huge Division 2 matchups this week, with No. 2 Ferris State taking on No. 6 Grand Valley State, and Valdosta State, the 2018 national champion, taking on a West Alabama team that has won five of six games by at least 18 points (and three by at least 37).
Pitt at Virginia Tech (3:30 p.m., ESPN2). The computers love the explosive Panthers -- they're 10th in SP+, 11th in FPI -- and quarterback Kenny Pickett (72% completion rate, 346 yards per game, first in Total QBR) basically became Dan Marino this offseason. The Virginia Tech pass rush can get pretty nasty, though.
Saturday evening
No. 5 Alabama at Mississippi State (7 p.m., ESPN). The last team to lose to Texas A&M plays the last team to beat Texas A&M. History suggests Bama will respond just fine to last week's defeat, but Mississippi State's defense is aggressive and tricky.
No. 22 NC State at Boston College (7:30 p.m., ACCN). NC State has managed to beat Clemson, barely beat Louisiana Tech and lose handily to Mississippi State this year. Good State is an obvious ACC contender. Bad State could still finish 6-6.
Late Saturday
No. 18 Arizona State at Utah (10 p.m., ESPN). Arizona State has won three Pac-12 games by a combined 59 points and looks like Oregon's biggest conference title competition, but Utah scored a seventh-round knockout of USC last week, turning a nip-and-tuck game into a blowout.