Intro by Doug Kezirian
Newly-crowned No. 1 Georgia hosts No. 11 Kentucky in a marquee battle of undefeated teams but the Bulldogs are still 22.5-point favorites. They will play just one week after previously top-ranked Bama lost outright as a 19-point favorite at Texas A&M.
"If you're a coach, that's the one thing you want to put on the board," Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. "That's the message you want to send to all your players. You can't take anything for granted and certainly not in college."
There's obviously a middle ground between an outright upset and covering as an underdog. Mucklow believes the point spread will close around the current line. "The max is 23.5. It won't touch 24. If anything, we will move downwards because we'll see Kentucky money."
And with a big number like this, an over/under of 44.5 is also part of the equation. "My ratings had it 25 but due to the style the two teams played, I shaved a field goal off and opened it 22. We had initial sharp action at 22," Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf told ESPN. "It usually doesn't bode well for the underdog when they play a team with a similar style with superior athletes."
Every Wednesday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (16-16 overall, 3-2 last week), Bill Connelly (17-13, 3-2), Tyler Fulghum (5-5, 1-1), Joe Fortenbaugh (11-13, 1-3) and David M. Hale (9-7, 2-1) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 7 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Wednesday (unless otherwise indicated).
Friday's best bet
Clemson Tigers (-14, 44.5) at Syracuse Orange, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: Clemson is 0-5 against the spread this season. Syracuse is 5-1. Have we really misjudged these two teams by that much? With Syracuse, the answer is likely yes. It's a defense that has markedly improved and an offense that has found an identity behind its ground game, led by freshman Sean Tucker and transfer QB Garrett Shrader. With Clemson, I'm not so sure. The offense hasn't clicked and myriad excuses have been offered, but it's quite possible the simplest answer is the correct one: It has just been a flukey start and things aren't nearly as bad as the numbers suggest. That's what the betting community seems to think, too, as the Tigers continue to command double-digit point spreads, despite the lackluster track record.
Last week was an open date for Clemson, and it both gave the team a chance to get healthy -- Justyn Ross will be back, most importantly -- and to take a deep breath and refocus after the rough start. Since 2012, Dabo Swinney's teams are 22-10-2 against the spread on more than six days of rest, and the Tigers have covered six of their last seven coming off a bye. Sure, Clemson has burned us before -- often -- but we're betting this is the week the Tigers right the ship.
Pick: Clemson -14
Fortenbaugh: In four games against FBS competition this season, Clemson has scored 3, 14, 21 and 19 points, respectively. How confident are you laying 14 points on the road on a Friday night with that resume, not to mention the fact that the Tigers currently rank 116th in yards per play? Syracuse is 5-1 ATS this season and is known for giving Dabo Swinney fits, as evidenced by the fact that the Orange are 5-2 ATS over their last seven meetings with Clemson.
Pick: Syracuse at +14.5 or better
Saturday's best bets
UCF Knights at No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (-20.5, 57.5), Noon ET on ABC
Fulghum: Cincinnati has looked every bit the part of one of the top-5 teams in the country this season. Playing only what the schedule will allow, the Bearcats are 5-0 this season and beating opponents by an average of 28.8 PPG. Incentivized to not only win but win with style and impress the CFP committee, I have no issues laying the almost three touchdowns at home against a UCF program that is not what it has been in recent years.
Pick: Cincinnati -20.5
Auburn Tigers at No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (-3.5, 53), Noon ET
Kezirian: Neither of these teams are all that consistent, but I do feel 3.5 is a bit too much for a live underdog. The Tigers already won a night game at Death Valley and Arkansas has come back to earth after its undefeated start. Both schools were manhandled by Georgia, but I thought the Tigers faired a little better. Either way, the unit I trust most is Auburn's defense, and ultimately that's why I am backing the Tigers and the points.
Pick: Auburn +3.5
No. 20 Florida Gators (-10.5, 59) at LSU Tigers, Noon ET on ESPN
Connelly: Because we know how LSU has recruited through the years, and because we can't quite shake the memory of the Tigers' 2019 awesomeness from our minds, we keep waiting for Ed Orgeron's team to show signs of life. And who knows, maybe last week's humiliation -- Kentucky pushed them around for 60 minutes and cruised 42-21 in Lexington -- wakes them up a bit. Maybe the sight of an increasingly bitter Gator rival gets them playing above their heads for once.
Or maybe they just aren't going to show signs of life. Maybe what they are on paper, the No. 58 team in the country, per SP+, is just what they are. SP+ gives Florida a 15.1-point edge in this one, and that's without any sort of adjustment for the fact that LSU's best player (receiver Kayshon Boutte) is out for the season with an injury. The Gators could also perk up at the sight of the team that upset them in last year's "Thrown Shoe Game." Just as many intangibles lean UF's way as LSU's.
Pick: Florida -10.5
No. 21 Texas A&M Aggies (-8.5, 60.5) at Missouri Tigers, Noon ET
Fulghum: I have made a lot of money this season betting against my alma mater's most hated rival: the Kansas Jayhawks (even still after the move to the SEC). I'll get to KU's ineptitude a little later in the column, but I have to be fair and point out that Mizzou is even worse this season than Kansas. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS this season, one of just four schools in FBS that is winless against the number. As much as I'd like to, I can't ignore this trend, so I'm backing the Aggies and the momentum they're riding off that massive upset win over Alabama last weekend.
Pick: Texas A&M -8.5
Ohio Bobcats at Buffalo Bulls (-9, 56.5), Noon ET on ESPN+
Fortenbaugh: What a fall from grace for the Bulls, who went from 6-1 a year ago to just 2-4 this season with their only wins coming against Wagner and Old Dominion. But that's what happens when your entire coaching staff departs during the offseason. Ohio isn't any better at 1-5, but I'll grab the 9.5 points in this spot because styles make fights. And in this fight, Ohio ranks 28th in the country in rushing and 15th in yards per rushing attempt while Buffalo ranks 109th in run defense and 94th in opponent yards per rushing attempt.
Pick: Ohio +9.5
No. 11 Kentucky Wildcats at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-23.5, 44.5), 3:30 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: The A1 headline here is the fact that Georgia leads the nation in both scoring defense (5.5 PPG) and opponent yards per play. But don't sleep on the Wildcats, who have amassed a sparkling 6-0 record thanks to their own brand of elite defense, which currently ranks 11th in the country in both scoring (16.4 PPG) and opponent yards per play. I'm not sure how much I trust the Kentucky offense in this situation, given the fact that Florida -- the best defense they've faced this season -- held them to a paltry 20 points at home two weeks ago.
Pick: Under 44.5
Kezirian: To me, this game will be dominated by Georgia's defense. Thirteen points is the most that unit has allowed all season, and that came against Clemson. Kentucky has a very similar style that leans on a rushing attack and defense. Georgia is much more athletic playing that style, so I think this game gets away from the Wildcats and they suffer their first loss. The Bulldogs should cover, but I'd rather just focus on the team total because both teams could just burn clock with a high volume of runs. There is a chance the UK defense also stymies Georgia's offense.
Pick: Kentucky team total under 11.5 points (DraftKings)
No. 19 BYU Cougars at Baylor Bears (-6, 50.5), 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
Hale: Last week's loss on the road to Boise State was a big blow to the BYU bandwagon, but it also was likely more an outlier than an indication of the Cougars' true talent. Boise State lucked out with four takeaways -- including three fumble recoveries -- and yet the Cougars were still within a TD in the fourth quarter. Baylor is playing good football, but the Bears have lived by turnover luck, too. QB Gerry Bohanon has yet to throw a pick, largely because the ground game success has kept the Bears out of situations requiring a risky throw. BYU's defense can force the issue. Then add that the Cougars are 6-1 ATS as a road 'dog since 2018 and Baylor's woeful 1-16 record against ranked foes the past five seasons, and this figures to be a nice rebound game for the Cougars.
Pick: BYU +6
Pittsburgh Panthers (-4.5, 58) at Virginia Tech Hokies, 3:30 p.m. on ESPN2
Kezirian: I think this is a really good situational spot for Pitt. The Panthers are off a bye and facing a Virginia Tech team that just suffered a gut-wrenching defeat to a high-profile school like Notre Dame. How much will the Hokies have in the tank for this game?
Pitt ranks 14th in the country in yards per play, and while it has faced a pretty soft schedule so far, the offense is predominantly upperclassmen, so I do believe it's a strong unit. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech ranks 105th in the same category and I think that will prove to be the difference. Pitt definitely has some defensive issues, but I doubt the Hokies will be able to take full advantage. I have confidence in Pitt's ability to score, especially against a defense that is not all that stout.
Pick: Pitt -4.5, Pitt team total over 30.5 (DraftKings)
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-16.5, 66.5) at Kansas Jayhawks, 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Fulghum: So here's where I point out that Kansas (like my Missouri Tigers) is also winless ATS this season. But having only played five games so far this season, at least you're only 0-5 ATS, Jayhawk fans! I'll keep fading KU football into oblivion because it has been a printing press for most of my adult life. Texas Tech only beat the Jayhawks by three points last season, so that has to be a bit embarrassing for anyone still left from last year's team. Kansas is coming off a bye, so the Jayhawks have had extra time to prepare ... but it's still Kansas football and I trust the process.
Pick: Texas Tech -16.5
Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks (-18.5, 51), 4 p.m. ET
Connelly: This one's pretty easy to explain. South Carolina has covered 60% of the time this year and is overachieving by about 4.1 points per game compared to SP+ projections. Vanderbilt has covered once in six games and is underachieving projections by about 8.5 points. SP+ projects a 21-point win for the Gamecocks, and any extra adjustment they get from season averages bumps this further in their favor. It's a worrisome thought trusting South Carolina to beat anyone by 18.5 -- the Gamecocks beat ECU (92nd in SP+) and Troy (85th) by a combined 12, after all. But Vanderbilt is much, much worse than ECU and Troy.
Pick: South Carolina -18.5
No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (-3, 82) at Tennessee Volunteers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: Some quick math for you:
* The Rebels and Vols have played pretty similar schedules so far -- Ole Miss ranks 21st in my SP+ strength of schedule measure to date, Tennessee 28th. So we can semi-comfortably take their season averages at face value.
* Ole Miss averages 3.6 points per drive, and Tennessee allows 1.6. Let's split the difference and say 2.6 for the Rebels.
* Tennessee averages 3.1 points per drive (more since Hendon Hooker took over), and Ole Miss allows 2.6. Average that out, and round up because of Hooker, and you get 2.9.
That tells us two things. First, it says the Vols could have a very good chance of winning this game outright, especially when you apply any sort of home-field advantage to the mix. SP+, in fact, projects them as a 3.9-point favorite.
Second, it tells us that both teams will need at least 15 possessions or so for this game to hit 82+ points. These are two of probably the three most up-tempo offenses in the country this year, so they could very well do it. But Tennessee has only averaged about 11.7 drives per game in SEC play, and Ole Miss has averaged 12. They could feed off of each other, and this game could get wild. But on average, it feels this game should be more in the 72- to 75-point range than 82. (And if you needed further swaying, two-thirds of the games with over/unders at 65 or higher this year have hit the under.)
Picks: Tennessee +3, under 82
No. 22 NC State Wolfpack (-3, 53) at Boston College Eagles, 7:30 p.m. ET
Connelly: Boston College has been a very trustworthy team this year. The Eagles have covered in four of five games, even despite losing quarterback Phil Jurkovec to injury, and they basically play to projections, overachieving against both SP+ and the spread by about 2.2 points per game. Their offense is nicely balanced, and their defense is fantastic both on third downs and in the red zone. So when SP+ projects BC to have a 2.7-point advantage in this one, that makes me feel pretty comfortable about the pick.
The one reason for pause: NC State is a dang wild card. The Wolfpack beat Clemson, thought hard about losing to Louisiana Tech and laid a total egg against Mississippi State. Five games in, we don't really know much about what they'll be capable of from here on out. Their run defense is excellent, and they could knock BC off-schedule with regularity. But BC is the better passing down, third down and red zone team. That carries this pick.
Pick: BC +3
Army Black Knights at Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 39), 8 p.m. ET
Fortenbaugh: Immovable object, I'd like to introduce you to unstoppable force. In this case, the immovable object is a Wisconsin defense that ranks first in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt (1.7). As for the unstoppable force, say hello to an Army outfit that's averaging a staggering 318.2 rushing yards per game (second in the NCAA). This game has rock fight written all over it.
Pick: Under 39.5
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack (-14, 61), 10:30 p.m. ET
Kezirian: Hawai'i is a very different team on the mainland, and that's why I believe we see a convincing Nevada win. The Wolf Pack are off consecutive victories, including one at Boise State, and the offense should fire on all cylinders against a weak Hawaii defense. UCLA and Oregon State each scored at least 40 points at home against Hawai'i, and I expect Nevada to have a similar performance. The Warriors should get QB Chevan Cordeiro back from injury, but I still think their soft defense will prove to be the difference.
Pick: Nevada -14