Two weeks into the college football season, our impressions are cloudy. We have begun to play the transitive-property game -- "Virginia obliterated Illinois? Nebraska must be terrible!" -- and we have shooed away certain early results with an "ain't played nobody" dismissal (hello, Auburn). We have no idea what to make of teams and units that are sending conflicting small-sample messages, from Oregon (beat Ohio State, nearly lost to Fresno State, outgained on a per-play basis by both) to Florida's quarterbacks (big plays and interceptions abound).
Week 3 will clarify at least some of our intuitions. Alabama's first true road game with Bryce Young behind center comes at No. 11 Florida, the only team to stay within a touchdown of the Tide a year ago. Fresh off of a pair of cupcake feasts, Auburn visits Penn State for a Citrus Bowl-like nonconference affair. Cincinnati's two-game College Football Playoff audition starts in Bloomington, Ind., while Oklahoma faces an old rival. And we could get the greatest set of Pac-12 After Dark games that we could possibly wish for.
Let's talk about the storylines you need to follow most closely this weekend.
All times are Eastern.
We'll soon learn what we need to about Florida's offensive firepower
No. 1 Alabama at No. 11 Florida (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Alabama's 26-23 comeback win over Georgia in 2017's national championship game was historic for a number of reasons. It was an incredible game, for starters, and it was the coming-out party for maybe the greatest recruiting class in the history of college football: Bama's 2017 class, which won two national titles and boasted eight first-round draft picks, two Biletnikoff winners, three Heisman finalists (one winner) and two current NFL starting quarterbacks.
It was also virtually the last time Bama had to win a game primarily with defense. Since the start of the 2018 season, Alabama has scored at least 31 points in 40 of 43 games -- 12 of 15 in 2018 and 28 of 28 since. The Tide have allowed more than 31 points just six times in that span, 40-plus in their only three losses (vs. Clemson in 2018 and vs. LSU and Auburn in 2019).
It could be said, then, that to beat the Tide, you basically have to accomplish one of two nearly impossible tasks: keeping them under 30 points or scoring more than 40. Neither is guaranteed to earn you a win, but you have to do one or the other to have a chance.
Florida did the latter last year. Kyle Trask completed 26 of 40 passes for 408 yards, including 15 for 282 yards to the devastating combo of Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts. While the Gators still fell, 52-46, they are the only team that has stayed within one score of the Tide in the last 16 games.
Trask, Toney and Pitts are all gone, of course. But it feels like the Gators still have a better chance of outscoring the Tide than limiting them.
At some point, someone could confuse Bryce Young. The blue-chip Alabama sophomore has predictably been strong so far, completing 71% of his passes for seven touchdowns, taking just two sacks and posting a QBR of 78.8, 14th in the FBS. He's gotten Alabama on the scoreboard on 14 of 19 drives. We can nitpick if we want -- both of the sacks he took were drive-killers (one resulted in a lost fumble against Miami), and his raw QBR on third-and-long ranks only 29th. Plus, four of those 14 scores were field goals, which will forever be victories for a defense facing Alabama.
There is a scenario in which defensive coordinator Todd Grantham dials up just the right blitzes at just the right times -- granted, Young is 12-of-16 for 200 yards and five TDs against blitzes thus far -- and the Florida defense forces just enough non-touchdown drives to make the Tide sweat. But the Gators will still probably need to score at least 30 to win. Can they do it?
A lot will depend on the Gators' tricky but exciting quarterback situation. Against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson combined for an incredible 456 passing yards and 430 rushing yards. Extrapolated over 13 games, that's a pace of nearly 3,000 and 3,000, which obviously hasn't been done before. But they reached those totals in strange ways.
Jones is 31-of-49 for 264 yards thus far. He's taken one sack and otherwise rushed 22 times for 163 yards (7.4 per carry). With enough snaps, he could easily end up with a 2,000 yards passing/1,000 yards rushing season. But he's also thrown four interceptions, and Gators fans have quickly begun clamoring to see more of backup Anthony Richardson. In just 11 pass attempts, Richardson has completed six for 192 yards and two touchdowns. In just 11 rushes, he's gained 275 yards and scored twice. Head coach Dan Mullen declared earlier this week that Jones will continue to start, pointing out that some of Richardson's big plays came on poor reads that better defenses, like Alabama's, would punish.
Over a larger sample, both Jones' interception rate and Richardson's otherworldly big-play rate will almost certainly fall. But with the right QB on the field at the right time, the Gators' quick-strike potential is clear. Four Gators receivers already have caught at least one pass of 20 or more yards -- Jacob Copeland has three of them among his six receptions, 190 yards and two touchdowns -- and running back Malik Davis is averaging 6.0 yards per carry. He will punish any defense that gets too preoccupied with either of the mobile QBs. The extreme variance of this Florida offense, with its ability to explode or implode, means that the Gators could both lose by 40 or score 40-plus on Saturday. That certainly makes the game worth watching.
What can Nebraska do to pull a renewed-rivalry upset?
Nebraska at No. 3 Oklahoma (noon, Fox)
As I wrote this week while ranking the best Oklahoma-Nebraska games, this celebrated rivalry, dormant for the last decade, hasn't produced all that many epic upsets recently. When both teams were elite, classic games followed, but in five games with a spread of three touchdowns or more between 1995 and 2008, the favored team won by an average of 42 points.
Considering OU is currently listed as a 22-point favorite, that doesn't say encouraging things about this contest. The Sooners rank third in the AP poll, and the Huskers are in Year 4 of hoping Scott Frost will turn things around. But it bears mentioning that, since the turnovers- and special teams-driven loss to Illinois in Week 0, Nebraska has looked pretty good.
The Cornhuskers finished an easy win against Fordham on a 45-0 run, then outgained Buffalo by 8.5 yards per play to 4.3 in an easier-than-expected 28-3 win over the Bulls. The level of competition hasn't been amazing, obviously, but the Huskers are up to 30th in the opponent-adjusted defensive SP+; if they were to finish there, it would be their best ranking since 2014, Bo Pelini's last season in charge. The Huskers could win at least a few rounds against a great Oklahoma offense (first in offensive SP+), and if Good Adrian Martinez shows up, Nebraska could score quite a bit too.
Good Adrian Martinez never seems to hang around for very long, though. The quarterback was easily NU's best player against Illinois, scoring on a 75-yard run and, in one stretch late in the game, completing 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards. But he was also Nebraska's worst player, missing open receivers for huge potential gains, completing only 50% of his passes, taking five sacks and losing a silly fumble that was returned for a score. He is, to steal an old Simpsons line, the cause of and solution to most of Nebraska's problems, and it's been that way for most of Frost's tenure.
Martinez has been nearly perfect the last two weeks. With the spotlight off after the Illinois disaster, he's completed 30 of 42 passes for 496 yards, three touchdowns and no picks. Excluding one sack, he's also rushed 16 times for 147 yards. If you can't rush his decision-making, he can still tear you apart.
Oklahoma, as a rule, rushes your decision-making. The Sooners rank sixth in pressure rate thus far after ranking 12th last season. They force the issue and create as much havoc as any defense in FBS, and your quarterback generally needs extreme poise to do damage. Tulane's Michael Pratt had it in the season opener and punished OU for 296 yards and three scores, but poise has not been Martinez's strength through the years.
What do we actually know about Auburn?
No. 22 Auburn at No. 10 Penn State (7:30 p.m., ABC)
With my analytics hat on, I will forever proselytize on the matter of cupcake games. "You can always learn about a team no matter who they play," I will tell you. "If Awesome Team A dominates Weak Team B more than anyone else, it probably still means something," I will say.
That Auburn has begun the season beating Akron and Alabama State by a combined 122-10 indeed might mean something. The Tigers treated two weak teams with outright disdain, gaining 1,151 yards and allowing 364. Bo Nix has completed 74% of his passes, Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are averaging 12.1 yards per carry, and the defense has already racked up 22 tackles for loss. Aside from a two-drive funk in the first half against ASU, the Tigers' execution has been focused and precise.
These haven't been just weak opponents, however. Akron is currently 126th in SP+, ahead of only Louisiana Monroe, UMass, UConn and New Mexico State. And the Zips would be favored comfortably over Alabama State, which ranks 105th in my FCS SP+ ratings and barely beat Division II's Miles College in Week 1. The Tigers will be playing a completely different sport against Penn State before its White Out crowd on Saturday night.
PSU is a pretty known commodity at this point. The defense, so consistently strong, has been even better than normal, climbing to fifth in defensive SP+. Granted, new coordinator Mike Yurcich's offense might not be totally trustworthy yet -- the Nittany Lions were held scoreless for a half against Wisconsin and had to settle for four field goals among eight offensive scores against Ball State. Still, quarterback Sean Clifford has led PSU to nine scores in 15 drives since halftime in Madison. The Nittany Lions are getting there, and they'll help teach us all we need to know about Auburn's capabilities.
It's Cincinnati's (and Desmond Ridder's) showcase moment
No. 8 Cincinnati at Indiana (noon, ESPN)
For a Group of Five team to have any chance of making it into the four-team College Football Playoff, it has to check off a pretty clear to-do list. First, you need to have announced your presence the year before, preferably in a huge bowl game. Then, you need to have conveniently scheduled, a few years earlier, a couple of big nonconference games against power-conference teams that happen to be strong when you play them. (Easy, right?) Then, you have to go unbeaten a second time and hope.
The clearest example of this approach would be the 2016 Houston Cougars, who walloped Florida State in the Peach Bowl the year prior, then happened to have scheduled Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma and Lamar Jackson's Louisville teams for that fall. The Cougars won both games and climbed to sixth in the AP poll, but upset losses to Navy and SMU ended any CFP hopes.
Personally, I'm not convinced the CFP committee would have even ranked a 13-0 Houston team higher than about sixth that year, but it's all theoretical. As with scoring 40 points on Alabama, following the above recipe isn't guaranteed to get the job done for you, but not doing so eliminates all hope.
Cincinnati has the recipe in front of it at the moment. The Bearcats went unbeaten in the 2020 regular season, then went toe-to-toe with Georgia in the Peach Bowl before falling via a late field goal. They began this season eighth in the AP poll, where they remain after easy wins over Miami (Ohio) and Murray State. And in their next two games, they will face Indiana and Notre Dame, both on the road.
Granted, Indiana might not end up being the potential marquee win Cincinnati had hoped for. The Hoosiers began the season 17th in the AP poll but fell out after a shellacking at Iowa's hands. They got right with a romp over Idaho, and they will still have plenty of chances to make noise moving forward, but their brutal upcoming schedule -- Cincinnati and Ohio State at home, Penn State and Michigan on the road -- might prevent them from ending up as Cincinnati's "win over a top-25 team" that the CFP committee values.
Of course, Cincy also has to actually win the game first. Among other things, that will require the Bearcats to move the ball well against a Hoosiers defense that still has quite a bit to offer. Linebacker Micah McFadden and Ole Miss defensive end transfer Ryder Anderson each have three TFLs already, and cornerback Tiawan Mullen remains one of the best in the country. IU was pretty efficient against the run last year, and while Iowa found success on the ground two weeks ago, there's no guarantee that Cincy can stay on schedule by simply leaning on star back Jerome Ford (30 carries for 234 yards). The game could very much end up in quarterback Desmond Ridder's hands.
Ridder burst onto the national stage last season, and Cincinnati, already an awesome defensive team, leaped from 65th to 22nd in offensive SP+. (They're currently 23rd.) His intermediate and deep passing skills were still pretty shoddy, but the short game improved to a massive degree and peeled defenders out of the box for the run game.
• Ridder on passes of 10 or fewer air yards, 2020: 77% completion rate, 9.3 yards per completion
• Ridder on passes of 11-30 yards: 46% completion rate, 22.3 yards per completion
• Ridder on passes of 30-plus yards: 29% completion rate, 40.8 yards per completion
It's obviously early, and the intermediate passing could still be an issue, but Ridder has made the deep ball work in 2021.
Ridder's completion rate on the short stuff is up to 82%, and he's 4-for-4 for 214 yards on bombs of at least 30 yards. But there's quite a step up from Miami (Ohio) and Murray State to Mullen, Reese Taylor and the other members of a sticky Indiana secondary.
If Ridder finds success on Saturday, Cincy will probably score a win that it hopes will end up considered high-quality in a couple of months. But the Hoosiers will provide stiff resistance.
The end-all be-all of Pac-12 After Darks
No. 19 Arizona State at No. 23 BYU (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Fresno State at No. 13 UCLA (10:45 p.m., Pac-12)
Things have gotten awfully weird in 2021 after the sun's gone down. You think Saturday is unfolding in a semi-orderly fashion, and then UCLA thumps LSU, Stanford crushes USC or BYU ends a nearly decade-long losing streak to Utah after dark.
Hopefully this doesn't jinx things, but this Saturday night has maximum chaos potential out West.
First, BYU tries to move to 3-0 against the Pac-12 with a visit from Herm Edwards' volatile and explosive Arizona State. The Sun Devils handled their business against Southern Utah and UNLV, with Jayden Daniels completing 73% of his (mostly short) passes and averaging 10.8 yards per non-sack rush. Running back Rachaad White has looked good, and back DeaMonte Trayanum should return from injury as well. Combined with the duo of BYU quarterback Jaren Hall and running back Tyler Allgeier, this game will feature two of the most exciting backfields in the country.
Thirty minutes after kickoff in Provo, UCLA takes on both Fresno State and complacency. After physically dominating LSU in a 38-27 victory, the Bruins' biggest win since at least 2017, they have had a bye week to read their press clippings and celebrate their first top-15 ranking in six years. If the Bruins are flat-footed at all, Fresno could take full advantage. The Bulldogs used an 18-0 run to take a sudden second-half lead against Ohio State-conquering Oregon in Week 1 (they eventually fell by seven), and they manhandled UConn and Cal Poly by a combined 108-10. (Auburn-style strength-of-schedule disclaimers apply, of course.)
UCLA has more dudes than it has had in quite a while -- running back Zach Charbonnet, linebacker Mitchell Agude, tight end Greg Dulcich, to name three -- but Fresno State has quarterback Jake Haener and all-purpose star Ronnie Rivers. The Bruins better be dialed in if they want to avoid an upset.
Week 3 playlist
Here are 10 more games you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both an information and an entertainment perspective.
Friday evening
UCF at Louisville (7:30 p.m., ESPN). Gus Malzahn's Knights started slowly against Boise State in Week 1 but charged back to win. Now they face a hungry Louisville team looking to make a better impression than it did in a meek Labor Day loss to Ole Miss.
Early Saturday
No. 15 Virginia Tech at West Virginia (noon, FS1). An old Big East battle in Morgantown! The Tech defense has been aggressive and exciting so far; can WVU and Jarret Doege counterpunch?
Michigan State at No. 24 Miami (noon, ABC). Michigan State has already jumped from 51st to 33rd in SP+; now the Spartans look to continue their climb against a Miami team that survived a post-Alabama hangover last week.
Saturday afternoon
Purdue at No. 12 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., NBC). Notre Dame's upside is obvious, but the Irish have been glitchy in two close wins. Purdue quarterback Jack Plummer and receiver David Bell might cause a few more glitches.
Saturday evening
South Carolina at No. 2 Georgia (7 p.m., ESPN). When teams overachieve against the spread by as much as Georgia has this early, it can portend big things. (Or not! Maryland did it in 2019 and then collapsed.) The bar is awfully high for the Dawgs moving forward.
Division III: No. 4 North Central at No. 5 Wheaton (7 p.m., YouTube). North Central's only loss during its national title run in 2019? At Wheaton. The Cardinals and Thunder will face off again in the biggest small-school game of the week.
Virginia at No. 21 North Carolina (7:30 p.m., ACCN). Virginia's offense has been dynamite early in 2021, and UNC bounced back from disappointment against Virginia Tech by hanging 59 on Georgia State. Odds of a track meet: pretty high.
Tulane at No. 17 Ole Miss (8 p.m., ESPN2). Odds of a track meet in Oxford? Even higher. Tulane nearly beat Oklahoma two weeks ago. Ole Miss is averaging nearly 50 points and... might play decent defense now? Not sure. But we'll find out.
FCS: No. 2 James Madison at No. 8 Weber State (8 p.m., ESPN+). Weber State played a run of wild, close games in the spring FCS season. Might we see another one on Saturday night? Or is James Madison -- which has beaten its first two opponents by a combined 123-17 -- too good?
Late Saturday
No. 14 Iowa State at UNLV (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). This is the last tuneup for Brock Purdy and the Cyclones before they attempt a run at their first conference title in a century, and it's time to start looking the part. They really haven't yet.