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College football bowl projections and analysis: Top matchups, playoff breakdowns and more

The ramifications of a rather tumultuous Week 2 of the college football season were felt far and wide, including in our bowl projections.

In addition to predicting the matchups for every single bowl game, Mark Schlabach and Kyle Bonagura provide key analysis on their playoff picks, most intriguing bowl matchup, coaches under pressure to make a bowl, fast-rising teams that could make a New Year's Six push and more.

All times Eastern

College Football Playoff

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Jan. 10, 8 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Georgia
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Georgia

CFP Semifinal at Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Dec. 31, 3:30 p.m. or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Alabama vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Alabama vs. Oklahoma

CFP Semifinal at Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Dec. 31, 3:30 or 7:30 p.m., ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Georgia vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Georgia vs. Oregon

Playoff breakdown

Bonagura: The top two spots went unchanged, as Alabama and Georgia both won easily. And from what we've seen so far, there are three candidates from the rest that have logical cases to be in the top four: Oklahoma, Oregon and Iowa. The Sooners are still primarily riding their preseason expectations, while the other two contenders turned in signature wins on Saturday (Oregon over Ohio State; Iowa over Iowa State). For now, Iowa is the odd team out, because the Ducks' win at the Horseshoe made a stronger impression.

Schlabach: Alabama and Georgia have been the two most impressive teams to me so far, maybe even more so than the Bulldogs on Saturday. They limited UAB to 174 yards of total offense, including 47 passing, in a 56-7 rout at Sanford Stadium. Georgia's defense hasn't surrendered a touchdown in two games; the Blazers scored on a pick-six and Clemson managed just a field goal in a 10-3 loss. You can't take much away from the Tide's 48-14 win against FCS program Mercer. But the defending national champions remain my No. 1 seed based on their dominant Week 1 victory over Miami. Oklahoma bounced back in a big way after looking rather ordinary against Tulane in its opener. The Sooners routed FCS foe Western Carolina 76-0, with Spencer Rattler throwing for five touchdowns. Oregon's 35-28 upset of No. 3 Ohio State on the road is the biggest victory of the season so far, so the Ducks are my No. 4 seed.


New Year's Six

Dec. 30

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Ohio State
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Notre Dame

Schlabach's take: Ohio State's loss might have opened the door for Clemson to sneak back into the CFP discussion, but the Tigers still face a long road in getting back to the top four. For now, I've got Clemson playing Notre Dame in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The teams played twice last season, with the Irish upsetting Clemson 47-40 in two overtimes during the regular season (with Trevor Lawrence sidelined), and the Tigers winning 34-10 in the ACC championship game.

Jan. 1

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
1 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Cincinnati

Rose Bowl Game
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
5 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Iowa vs. UCLA
Schlabach: Iowa vs. UCLA

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
8:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Florida vs. Iowa State
Schlabach: Florida vs. Iowa State


Team knocking on the door of the NY6

Bonagura: Both Notre Dame and Texas A&M dropped out of New Year's Six slots this week (in favor of Oregon and Iowa). Neither team lost, so they'll remain within striking distance, but they both failed to make a positive impression this week, needing late scores to win ugly against Toledo and Colorado, respectively. The winning part is the key. By the time the playoff rankings are released, style points in nonconference wins won't carry much weight.

Schlabach: With Texas A&M struggling to win 10-7 on the road at Colorado on Saturday, might the Florida Gators be the third-best team in the SEC? The defending East Division champions weren't tested much in season-opening wins over Florida Atlantic and South Florida, but that won't be an issue in Saturday's home game against Alabama. Quarterback Emory Jones continues to be the starter, but backup Anthony Richardson might be more talented. Against USF, he went 3-for-3 for 152 yards with two scores and ran for another 115 yards with one touchdown, becoming the first Gator to have at least 100 passing yards and 100 rushing yards in a game since Tim Tebow in 2009.


Bowl season

Dec. 17

Bahamas Bowl
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Buffalo vs. UAB
Schlabach: Ball State vs. FAU

Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
6 p.m. on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Army vs. Charlotte

Dec. 18

RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Northern Illinois vs. Houston
Schlabach: Appalachian State vs. Memphis

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Nevada vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: Oregon State vs. Kent State

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: BYU vs. Marshall
Schlabach: BYU vs. Louisiana Tech

LendingTree Bowl
Ladd-Peebles Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Troy vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Arkansas State vs. Western Michigan

Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
7:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Colorado vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Stanford vs. Nevada

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Superdome (New Orleans)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Louisiana vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Marshall


Coach under pressure to make a bowl game

Bonagura: Clay Helton, USC. And just making a bowl game won't be enough for Helton this time around. He probably needed to win the Pac-12 title for his job to be safe, and after a lethargic performance in a 42-28 loss to Stanford, that seems off the table. All eyes in Los Angeles are on USC athletic director Mike Bohn, who is USC's third AD since Helton took over.

Schlabach: Although it's his first full season as Washington's coach, there are already concerns about Chris Petersen's hand-picked successor, Jimmy Lake. After losing to FCS program Montana 13-7 in the opener and 31-10 on the road at Michigan on Saturday, the Huskies are 0-2 for the first time since 2008, when they finished 0-12. At least Washington plays UCLA, Oregon and Arizona State at home.


Dec. 20

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas State vs. Middle Tennessee
Schlabach: SMU vs. Coastal Carolina

Dec. 21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Boise State

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Toyota Stadium (Frisco, Texas)
7:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: North Texas vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Wyoming

Dec. 22

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. SMU
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Indiana

Dec. 23

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Tennessee

Dec. 24

EasyPost Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: San Jose State vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Washington State

Dec. 25

Camellia Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ball State vs. FAU
Schlabach: Troy vs. Western Kentucky

Dec. 27

Quick Lane Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Purdue vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Buffalo

Military Bowl presented by Peraton
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Virginia vs. UCF
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. Tulane

Dec. 28

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Protective Life Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. UAB

Bonagura's take: Coastal didn't start playing football until 2003 and didn't make the jump to FBS until 2017. Playing South Carolina in a bowl game would be a massive opportunity for the Chanticleers to make a statement within the state about what they've been building. When they first met, in 2018, Coastal Carolina wasn't quite ready to compete. That has changed.

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Louisville
Schlabach: Houston vs. Air Force

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
6:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. Missouri

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Petco Park (San Diego)
8 p.m. on Fox

Bonagura: North Carolina vs. Stanford
Schlabach: Utah vs. Miami

Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
10:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Rutgers vs. Texas
Schlabach: West Virginia vs. Michigan State


Notable team in danger of missing a bowl

Bonagura: Florida State. Any optimism drummed up by the Seminoles taking Notre Dame to the wire in the opener was vaporized this week after they lost 20-17 to FCS Jacksonville State. It was FSU's first loss to an FCS opponent since the FBS/FCS split in 1978. Losing to Jacksonville State makes it hard to find six wins on Florida State's schedule.

Schlabach: It's Florida State. The Seminoles going to a bowl game was as much of a holiday tradition as turkey and cranberry sauce. They went to 36 consecutive bowls from 1982 to 2017, but now they're in danger of missing the postseason for the third time in four years.


Dec. 29

Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Boston College vs. Memphis
Schlabach: NC State vs. UCF

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
2:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Miami
Schlabach: Maryland vs. Boston College

Cheez-It Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:45 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Texas

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9:15 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: TCU vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: TCU vs. Arizona State

Dec. 30

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
11:30 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Ole Miss vs. Pittsburgh
Schlabach: Auburn vs. Virginia

TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Arkansas vs. Michigan
Schlabach: Ole Miss vs. Minnesota

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
10:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Utah vs. Indiana
Schlabach: USC vs. Wisconsin

Dec. 31

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
11 a.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach: Arkansas vs. North Carolina

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
12:30 p.m. on CBS

Bonagura: USC vs. NC State
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Pitt

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
5:30 p.m.

Bonagura: Eastern Michigan vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Liberty vs. San Diego State

Jan. 1

Outback Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon on ESPN2 and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Auburn vs. Michigan State
Schlabach: Kentucky vs. Michigan

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach: Texas A&M vs. Penn State

Jan. 4

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
Time TBD on ESPN and the ESPN App

Bonagura: Baylor vs. LSU
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. LSU