Not even the financial constraints of a pandemic could stop the college football coaching carousel from spinning.
All summer and fall, the industry prepared for an extremely light cycle. If schools were on the fence about their coaches and whether to pay eight-figure guarantees to make changes, they likely would keep their coach and their money.
Silly us.
South Carolina kicked things off Nov. 15 by cutting ties with Will Muschamp, owed approximately $15 million. Arizona, an athletic department facing major financial challenges, dumped Kevin Sumlin with more than $7 million left on his contract, hours after the Wildcats lost the Territorial Cup 70-7. Vanderbilt and Illinois made changes, and the carousel appeared to slow. But no! Auburn fired Gus Malzahn with four years left on a $49 million contract. After a failed pursuit of Urban Meyer, Texas covertly targeted Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, hiring him hours after firing Tom Herman. The total cost of Texas' coaching transaction will be well above $30 million.
The carousel wasn't even limited to on-field performance, as Marshall didn't renew the contract of Doc Holliday, the Conference USA Coach of the Year, over what sources say is a power struggle.
Thirteen programs will have new head coaches in 2021, and the carousel might not be done spinning (hello, Rocky Top). So what does that mean for the next coaching cycle? Before the 2020 carousel picked up, many looked toward 2021 to be one of the wildest cycles ever. And it still might be.
Here's an early look at the coaching hot seat, following the same league-by-league format used a year ago. Note: Several coaches listed here are candidates for retirement rather than outright dismissals.
ACC
Hot seat: Dino Babers, Syracuse; Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech
Keep an eye on: David Cutcliffe, Duke; Dave Doeren, NC State; Scott Satterfield, Louisville
The ACC is the only Power 5 league that didn't have a head-coaching change in the current cycle, but it could be the most turbulent league in the next one. If not for Virginia Tech's financial problems and Fuente's remaining contract guarantee, the school in all likelihood would have made a change. Athletic director Whit Babcock did his best to present a united front Dec. 15, but there have been too many bumps and negative headlines since Fuente went 19-8 in his first two seasons with a 2016 Coastal Division title. Fuente needs to compete in a perennially winnable division or Virginia Tech, which has just two Top-25 finishes in the past decade, will fire him.
Babers doesn't need a division title, but other than a 10-win season and No. 15 finish in 2018, he's 14-33 (7-27 in ACC play) at Syracuse. He occupies one of the toughest jobs in the Power 5, and he has energized the program with some big wins, but he needs to deliver this fall. "The proverbial hot seat -- take that and just delete it," athletic director John Wildhack said in December. But if things don't improve, Wildhack, who didn't hire Babers, might be hitting Command-Z.
Cutcliffe isn't getting fired, but at 66 and just 7-16 the past two seasons, he could be nearing retirement. Doeren entered 2020 on the hot seat but led the team to an 8-4 record and the most ACC wins (7) in his career. But he always seems one bad season away from the hot seat, especially with an athletic director (Boo Corrigan) who didn't hire him. Satterfield's December dalliance with South Carolina after the team significantly regressed in his second season didn't sit well at all with athletic director Vince Tyra. Another step back or pursuit of a job could prompt action.
Big 12
Hot seat: Matt Wells, Texas Tech; Les Miles, Kansas
Keep an eye on: Gary Patterson, TCU
The league has had only one forced coaching change (Texas) in the past two cycles, but there could be multiple moves after the 2021 season. Wells is just 8-14 (5-13 in Big 12 play) in two seasons, and Texas Tech hasn't achieved the schematic balance and record improvement it sought when it hired him from Utah State. It's never a good sign when the athletic director and university president hold a news conference to say they aren't making a change, as Kirby Hocutt and Lawrence Schovanec did last month. Wells brought in Red Raiders great Sonny Cumbie as his new offensive coordinator, but a defense that allowed 36.4 points per game could be the bigger issue in a league where defenses are on the uptick.
Kansas hired Miles to boost enthusiasm and pry the program out of the Big 12 catacomb. Two years later, Kansas is 3-18 overall, 1-16 in Big 12 play, and has two more last-place finishes, extending the sorry streak to six years. Any coach deserves at least three years to turn around the worst Power 5 program, and Miles will get another chance. But he'll be 68 in November, and another poor season could spell the end for him in Lawrence.
Patterson has a statue at TCU and will decide when he wants to step aside. But he'll be 61 next month, and TCU has had three consecutive middling seasons. Plus, the sport is changing with player empowerment and other factors that make the job tougher for old-school coaches.
Big Ten
Hot seat: Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
Keep an eye on: Scott Frost, Nebraska
I wouldn't be surprised if the Big Ten has no forced coaching changes after the 2021 season. Harbaugh and Frost are both decorated former quarterbacks coaching at their alma maters who arrived with proven coaching profiles. Despite varying levels of underachievement, they simply will get more time than other coaches to get things right. Even as Michigan floundered in 2020, no one felt the school would actually fire Harbaugh.
Could that change in 2021? Harbaugh has to deliver something -- wins against rivals Michigan State and Ohio State, Michigan's first East Division title, another 10-win season -- to reverse the program's downward trend. Michigan restructured his contract responsibly (a rarity in big-time college athletics) and could afford to make a move if the results aren't there this fall.
At 12-20, Frost has been a disappointment at Nebraska, which has been a disappointment as a Big Ten member (one division title, no league titles, no top-20 finishes). Nebraska remains very loyal to Frost, and there's a sense that if he can't succeed in Lincoln, who can?
"He's here with me as long as I'm here," athletic director Bill Moos said in December. "He's just what I want and what Nebraska's needed." What Nebraska really needs are 10-win seasons, and if Frost can't deliver this fall, the heat will rise.
Pac-12
Hot seat: Clay Helton, USC; Chip Kelly, UCLA
Keep an eye on: None
All eyes are on Los Angeles as both of the city's Pac-12 coaches face significant pressure in 2021. Helton guided USC to a South Division title in 2020, but the Trojans needed furious rallies to win three of their five regular-season games (Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA) before falling to Oregon in the league championship. There are some positives in the program, including the 2021 recruiting class, headlined by ESPN's No. 3 overall recruit in Korey Foreman, and improvement on defense under coordinator Todd Orlando.
But USC, while talented, too often looks like a sloppy team. Many Trojans fans are done with Helton, but he remains well-liked by athletic director Mike Bohn and other decision-makers. Anything short of a league title, though, could prompt a change.
First-year UCLA athletic director Martin Jarmond last month shot down premature reports about Kelly's job status. Jarmond isn't the type to rush a change, and Kelly's guarantee doesn't budge from $9 million until Jan. 15, 2022. The money could still be a prohibiting factor. UCLA also showed clear improvement in Year 3 under Kelly, as all four of its losses came by six points or fewer. But UCLA hired Kelly to compete for championships. If the Bruins aren't contenders this fall, Jarmond, who made an excellent coaching hire at Boston College (Jeff Hafley) before departing, could look to make a move.
SEC
Hot seat: Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
Keep an eye on: Ed Orgeron, LSU
If Pruitt survives the next few weeks -- an internal investigation continues into potential recruiting violations -- he will enter the fall on the hottest of seats. No coach can overcome the combination of losing and terrible quarterback play, which plagued Tennessee in 2020 and doesn't seem to be getting much better. Pruitt is 0-9 against Florida, Alabama and Georgia, losing by an average of 26.3 points (all nine by double digits). His success in recruiting could still materialize, but Tennessee is losing talented players and seems to be falling further behind at quarterback. If the Vols don't start fast, Pruitt could be out by mid-October.
Orgeron is here only because of a combination of on-field regression and off-field turmoil. An external review of LSU's handling of Title IX complaints involving several football players is set to conclude in February. How Orgeron emerges after the investigation will be telling, although his fate likely will be more connected to the team's performance. In 2019, he guided LSU to its greatest season, but the Tigers slipped significantly last fall. Despite coordinator changes on both sides, LSU returns a lot and should factor in the SEC West race in 2021.
Group of 5
Hot seat: Seth Littrell, North Texas; Tom Arth, Akron; Randy Edsall, UConn; Doug Martin, New Mexico State; Dana Dimel, UTEP; Chip Lindsey, Troy
Keep an eye on: Jake Spavital, Texas State; Dana Holgorsen, Houston; Scott Loeffler, Bowling Green; Walt Bell, UMass; Mike Houston, East Carolina; Willie Taggart, Florida Atlantic; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Frank Solich, Ohio; Butch Davis, Florida International
Other than North Texas, which has invested greatly in football and needs to see improvement following consecutive losing seasons, most potential Group of 5 openings occupy the bottom rung of the FBS. UConn and New Mexico State canceled their fall seasons, but Edsall and Martin likely will need to show progress this fall to remain in 2022. Dimel showed improvement at 3-5 this past season but is just 5-27 overall and is replacing both coordinators. Troy, meanwhile, is used to winning and Lindsey has gone 5-7 and 5-6.
Several coaches entering their third seasons are likely safe but need to show improvement, such as Spavital (5-19), Houston (7-14), Loeffler (3-14, 0-5 in 2020) and Bell (1-15, 0-4 in 2020).
Holgorsen's hiring at Houston was a huge deal, and he's still owed more than $12 million on his contract with the school. But university president Renu Khator once famously said UH will fire coaches for going 8-4, and Holgorsen is just 7-13 (5-9 in AAC play). Taggart's inclusion might surprise some, but several sources noted internal issues at FAU that make it a potential hot spot in 2021. Retirement is a possibility or likelihood for Stockstill (63), Davis (69) and Solich (76).