The 2019 coaching cycle went pretty much as expected: quiet overall with a few surprises, but no major domino effect in the Power 5.
The highest-profile coach on the hottest seat before the season, USC's Clay Helton, surprisingly kept his job. Only nine Power 5 schools made changes (seven firings and Washington's Chris Petersen chose to step down, while Baylor's Matt Rhule left for the Carolina Panthers job), and no coaches have made moves from one power conference to another. The market trend right now is internal promotions -- all four College Football Playoff coaches this year were promoted to their jobs. Washington's Jimmy Lake, Memphis' Ryan Silverfield and Appalachian State's Shawn Clark all moved up.
There should be substantially more action this coming year. Helton once again occupies the nation's hottest seat, but he's not alone, as other coaches from the SEC, ACC and Pac-12 also enter win-or-else seasons.
Rather than a national hot-seat list, I'm going to follow the league-by-league format I introduced last season. Here's a look at the coaches who need to win the most in the Power 5 leagues, as well as a section for the Group of 5.
SEC
Hot seat: Derek Mason, Vanderbilt; Will Muschamp, South Carolina
Keep an eye on: Gus Malzahn, Auburn; Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee
The SEC once again could be the most active league in the 2020 coaching carousel. Mason went 3-9 in 2019 but remained in his post, as new athletic director Malcolm Turner is focusing on generating more resources and infrastructure with the program. Turner likely won't be as patient if Mason doesn't deliver a winning season (he hasn't won more than six games with the Commodores). Muschamp's contract and a brutal schedule made his return in 2020 always likely, but multiple statements from university president Bob Caslen and athletic director Ray Tanner in November created an odd/uncomfortable vibe. Either way, Muschamp needs to show progress this year, as he reunites with Georgia teammate Mike Bobo, the Gamecocks' new offensive coordinator.
Malzahn is only included because barring an SEC title and CFP appearance, his status always will be somewhat in doubt. That's just life as Auburn's coach. Pruitt overcame a horrid start to finish strong, but a step backward in Year 3 -- and no wins over Florida, Georgia or Alabama -- could crank up the heat.
Pac-12
Hot seat: Clay Helton, USC; Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
Keep an eye on: Chip Kelly, UCLA
Helton's job status will be the dominant storyline around USC football until either he gets fired or wins the Pac-12 and gets the Trojans to the CFP for the first time. It's that cut and dried after new athletic director Mike Bohn chose to retain Helton, who had a massive guarantee on his contract, and provide long-overdue infrastructure upgrades to the program. Sumlin is just 9-15 at Arizona and reshaped his defensive coaching staff after the season. Things seem very unsettled around the UA program, and Sumlin likely must deliver a bowl appearance in Year 3 to stick around.
UCLA's Kelly denied rumors that he might step away after struggling mightily in his return to the Pac-12. His $9 million buyout through 2021 works very much in his favor to stick around in Westwood -- he also would owe the school $9 million if he leaves -- but UCLA could get antsy if the results from its historic investment in football don't arrive in Year 3. Kelly is 7-17 at UCLA, which soon will be hiring a new athletic director.
ACC
Hot seat: Dave Doeren, NC State
Keep an eye on: Manny Diaz, Miami
Doeren comes off his first losing season since 2013. He went 18-8 in 2017-18 and has three bowl wins at the school, but his ACC record (21-35) and a newish boss in AD Boo Corrigan makes 2020 a pivotal year. Doeren shuffled his coaching staff in recent weeks, hiring offensive coordinator Tim Beck from Texas and others. NC State is more committed to football than most ACC schools and has a great game-day environment. Another poor season in Raleigh could prompt a change, especially with significant momentum generated at North Carolina under Mack Brown.
Miami absolutely does not want to get rid of Diaz after just two seasons. Lack of stability undoubtedly has led to the program's 15-year malaise. But emotions run high around Miami's program, especially with a vocal contingent of former players. Diaz is a Miami guy through and through, but the team's struggles down the stretch and on offense for much of the season are alarming. Barring a losing season, though, Diaz should be back for Year 3.
Big Ten
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: Lovie Smith, Illinois; Mark Dantonio, Michigan State; Jim Harbaugh, Michigan
The Big Ten might be the toughest league to project regarding the coaching hot seat in 2020. I could see no movement or several coaches either being fired or moving on. Smith in 2019 reached his first bowl game at Illinois and notched a signature win over Wisconsin. Athletic director Josh Whitman, who boldly hired Smith just weeks after his own appointment in early 2016, remains very supportive of the coach. But Illinois was outgained by more than 1,000 yards in 2019 and needed 28 takeaways to reach six wins. A bowl-less season this year could prompt a change.
Dantonio became MSU's all-time winningest coach in 2019, but the team fell short of expectations and went 7-6 for the second straight year. Dantonio turns 64 in March and could be entering his final season. While Harbaugh's job status generates constant debate outside Ann Arbor, the possibility of Michigan actually firing him remains slim. The more realistic question is whether Harbaugh and the school agree to part ways if Michigan once again can't beat Ohio State or win its first division title.
Big 12
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: Tom Herman, Texas
The Big 12 again figures to be the quietest power conference with coaching changes. Four coaches will be entering their second seasons. TCU's Gary Patterson is 12-13 the past two seasons, but he's got a statue outside the stadium. The spot to watch could be Texas, as Herman enters Year 4 seeking his first conference title and first CFP appearance. After a 7-5 regular season, he replaced both coordinators and brought in talented playcallers in Chris Ash (defense) and Mike Yurcich (offense). Senior quarterback Sam Ehlinger is back, and Texas has had enough time to develop its recruits. Herman is signed through 2023 and athletic director Chris Del Conte remains supportive, but Texas hasn't won the Big 12 since 2009. It's time.
Group of 5
Hot seat: Philip Montgomery, Tulsa; Randy Edsall, UConn; Dana Dimel, UTEP; Doug Martin, New Mexico State; Steve Campbell, South Alabama; Matt Viator, UL Monroe; Mike Neu, Ball State
Keep an eye on: Mike Bloomgren, Rice; Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee; Tom Arth, Akron
This shapes up to be a quieter cycle for the Group of 5 after an active year in the Mountain West (four coaching changes). Montgomery needs to show progress after three consecutive losing seasons at Tulsa. UConn's future is shaky as an FBS independent, but the program can't go on much longer with Edsall, who is 6-30 in his return to Storrs. Dimel is just 2-22 at UTEP, one of the nation's toughest jobs. The MAC featured no firings in 2019, but Neu is still seeking his first bowl appearance and needs to show progress in Year 5.