In 2017, Clay Helton led USC to its first Pac-12 championship in nearly a decade. That same year, Gus Malzahn coached Auburn to the SEC championship game, beating both Georgia and Alabama along the way and ending Alabama's run of three consecutive outright West division titles.
Two years later, Helton and Malzahn lead off the preseason coaching hot-seat breakdown. They don't occupy the two hottest seats in the country (Helton might have one), but when sizing up premier jobs that could open this year, USC and Auburn jump out.
There aren't many other Tier 1 jobs that figure to open because of a firing -- NFL departures and retirements are always possible -- and the list of potential Power 5 vacancies, according to industry insiders, is relatively short. Jobs like USC and Auburn certainly have the potential to trigger coaching dominoes, but if one or both don't open, or if USC hires a certain former Ohio State and Florida coach now working as a Fox analyst, there won't be much trickle down.
Famous last words, right?
For this year's preseason coaching hot-seat breakdown, I'm examining each conference's landscape. A national top-10 list would be pretty watered down by No. 7 or so. Here's what I'm hearing about what likely will open, or could open, when the carousel starts to spin later this fall. Also, I tried to limit this to coaches who could be dismissed, rather than those who could retire or move to other jobs.
Let's begin with the Power 5.
ACC
Hot seat: Steve Addazio, Boston College
Keep an eye on: Willie Taggart, Florida State; Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech
Addazio has done a solid job at one of the tougher Power 5 jobs, recording seven wins in five of his six seasons in The Heights. But the team's inability to truly break through puts him on somewhat shaky ground in 2019. Boston College considered a move late last fall, as the Eagles dropped their final three games after being ranked No. 17. Martin Jarmond is a young, ambitious athletic director who could be itchy to make his own hire, especially if Addazio can't eclipse seven wins this fall.
Taggart and Fuente are highly likely to keep their jobs for 2020. Florida State would need a repeat of 2018, probably worse, to consider buying out Taggart. Even then, the school's significant financial problems would make a move difficult. Fuente is even safer, although another subpar season -- Virginia Tech hasn't missed a bowl since 1992 -- and more bad off-field news could make athletic director Whit Babcock reconsider a hire that looked like a home run not long ago.
Big 12
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: None
After 40 percent of the league made coaching changes, the Big 12 enters a season of relative stability. There are no obvious hot-seat candidates. TCU's Gary Patterson and Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy both have built up more than enough equity at their programs (especially Patterson) to overcome a second consecutive subpar season.
Although the Big 12 could be the quietest major conference in the carousel, it also has the NFL's most desirable group of college coaches. Baylor's Matt Rhule interviewed for NFL jobs the past two years and could make the jump soon, especially if Jacksonville is looking. Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley, who developed the past two No. 1 overall draft picks, would be on the short list for any NFL job. Iowa State's Matt Campbell also is drawing interest.
Big Ten
Hot seat: Chris Ash, Rutgers; Lovie Smith, Illinois
Keep an eye on: Tom Allen, Indiana
The Big Ten is the only Power 5 league with two irrefutable hot-seat candidates, who have similarities. Both are career defensive coaches who have received strong support from their athletic directors despite dreadful records (7-29 for Ash, 9-27 for Smith) in three seasons. Smith is in better position after doubling his wins total in 2018. Illinois plays in the less treacherous West Division, and athletic director Josh Whitman is more tied to Smith -- whom he brought in weeks after his own appointment -- than most ADs are. After going 1-11 last fall, Ash would need to show tangible improvement to be back in 2020.
Allen could use a bowl appearance or a signature victory after coming close several times. He has upgraded Indiana's talent and loves the school -- athletic director Fred Glass values coaching continuity in football -- but he also took over after consecutive bowl appearances and has posted two 5-7 records.
Pac-12
Hot seat: Clay Helton, USC
Keep an eye on: Kevin Sumlin, Arizona
No Power 5 coach enters 2019 feeling more pressure than Helton, whose goodwill from 2016 (Rose Bowl championship, Sam Darnold's emergence) and 2017 (league title) vanished last fall as the Trojans went 5-7. Although USC isn't in the best position to make a change following a period of administrative flux and scandal, it can't afford another middling season. We should know soon about Helton's situation, as USC's first-half schedule is brutal: Fresno State (home), Stanford (home), BYU (road), Utah (home), Washington (road), Notre Dame (road).
Other than USC, the Pac-12 landscape should be quiet. Sumlin enters just his second season and anything other than a major backslide will keep him in Tucson for 2020. Athletic director Dave Heeke hired Sumlin, which helps, but Sumlin also inherited a consistent bowl team with a record-setting quarterback (Khalil Tate) and didn't do much last fall.
SEC
Hot seat: Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Keep an eye on: Matt Luke, Ole Miss; Chad Morris, Arkansas; Ed Orgeron, LSU
Two years removed from an SEC West title and a $49 million contract, Malzahn needs to deliver to remain on the Plains in 2020. What, exactly, must he show? That's tough to pinpoint, as Auburn might be the epicenter of SEC coaching restlessness. "It's the worst best job in America," an SEC assistant recently told me. The university president who gave Malzahn that sweet contract, Steven Leath, left his post in June. Allen Greene is a sharp, young athletic director, but Auburn always has a lot of forces in play. Malzahn must navigate a schedule beginning with Oregon and featuring both Georgia (home) and Florida (road) in division crossovers as well as the SEC West grind.
Luke, Morris and Orgeron all should be back in 2020. Luke guided Ole Miss through postseason probation, and the school's administrative flux -- no permanent chancellor or athletic director -- makes this a bad time for a coaching change. But after spending big to hire two former Power 5 head coaches as coordinators -- Rich Rodriguez (offense), Mike MacIntyre (defense) -- the Rebel faithful will get antsy if the record slips much. The only caveat at Arkansas could be if Malzahn, a native son whom the school courted in 2017, became available and the Hogs don't improve much after a 2-10 season.
Orgeron is the least likely to go, especially after a strong season in 2018, but if LSU falls short of increased expectations this fall, Coach O's future will be debated. The biggest factor is new athletic director Scott Woodward, who made home run football coach hires at Washington (Chris Petersen) and Texas A&M (Jimbo Fisher). "That's what Scott does," an industry source said.
Now, let's examine the Group of 5.
American Athletic
Hot seat: Randy Edsall, UConn; Philip Montgomery, Tulsa
Keep an eye on: Charlie Strong, USF
Edsall's second act at Connecticut has bombed, as the team is 4-20 (2-14 in AAC play) with a historically bad defense in 2018. Although the program's future is murky with the AAC departure, UConn can't afford to keep slipping. Athletic director David Benedict hired Edsall, but now that the Big East move is set, he must focus primarily on getting the football program back on solid ground. Montgomery is 5-19 since his 10-win breakthrough in 2016. Tulsa has no money, multiple industry sources noted, and will fight the urge to make a change. But another two- or three-win season will force the school's hand.
Strong is 17-8 at USF, but last year's poor finish combined with significant staff and roster changes adds significance to the 2019 season. Athletic director Michael Kelly didn't hire Strong and knows USF can't keep slipping further behind UCF in the state power rankings.
Conference USA
Hot seat: Bobby Wilder, Old Dominion; Frank Wilson, UTSA
Keep an eye on: Jay Hopson, Southern Miss
Coaches' fortunes change quickly in the Group of 5, too, as Wilder and Wilson can attest. Wilder is 76-45 at Old Dominion and guided the Monarchs through their FCS-FBS transition, going 10-3 in 2016 while tying for first place in Conference USA's East Division. The same season, Wilson led UTSA to its first bowl appearance and a second-place finish in the West Division. But both programs have slid the past two seasons. Wilder has three years left on his contract but likely must reach a bowl game to remain. UTSA athletic director Lisa Campos didn't hire Wilson, whose team went 3-9 last season and finished 128th out of 130 teams in offensive efficiency.
Hopson is 21-16 at Southern Miss with three winning records, although last year's team didn't make a bowl game. His pursuit of Art Briles as offensive coordinator, and his public disagreement with the university for opposing the hire, probably won't help if the Eagles, pegged to challenge in the West Division, take a step back.
Mid-American Conference
Hot seat: Mike Neu, Ball State
Keep an eye on: Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio)
Neu's return to his alma mater hasn't gone as planned, as the longtime pro assistant (NFL, Arena League) is just 10-26 and 4-20 in MAC play. Although the Cardinals doubled their wins total last year, they lost a productive offensive backfield -- quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert -- to the transfer portal. Athletic director Beth Goetz didn't hire Neu and likely will make a move if the team doesn't reach a bowl game.
Martin has reached bowl eligibility in two of the past three seasons, but a 22-39 record in five years with no season above six wins isn't inspiring. Miami is one of the MAC's better jobs and has a great coaching lineage. The school should expect more from Martin, who is under contract only through 2020.
Mountain West
Hot seat: Bob Davie, New Mexico; Tony Sanchez, UNLV; Mike Bobo, Colorado State
Keep an eye on: Brent Brennan, San Jose State; Troy Calhoun, Air Force
This is shaping up to be a year of movement in the Mountain West. Davie occupies one of the nation's hottest seats after consecutive 3-9 seasons and bad off-field news. New Mexico didn't have the money to fire him last year but might not wait long if the team struggles early. Sanchez's situation is fascinating, as he maintains support with top donors Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta and other key influencers around UNLV. But athletic director Desiree Reed-Francois has made it clear that Sanchez (16-32) must make his first bowl appearance to return in 2020.
Bobo's contract protected him after a 3-9 season last fall, but he likely must deliver something substantial -- he has never won more than seven games at CSU -- to return next season. Colorado State has invested too much not to be competing for conference titles.
Brennan is 3-22 in two seasons, but San Jose State's financial and administrative situation makes a change highly unlikely. He can help himself by winning more than one league game, though.
Sun Belt
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: Shawn Elliott, Georgia State; Matt Viator, Louisiana-Monroe
The coaching carousel could bypass the Sun Belt altogether in 2019, after a year in which top programs like Appalachian State and Troy lost coaches to Power 5 jobs. Elliott comes off of a 2-10 season but has support from athletic director Charlie Cobb, who also hired him and has a long-term connection from their Appalachian State days. Barring a repeat of 2018, Elliott should be back in 2020. Viator is bowl-less in three years at ULM, although the team improved from four to six wins in 2018. Signed through only the 2020 season, Viator might have to deliver a bowl appearance to secure his future in Monroe.
FBS Independents
Hot seat: None
Keep an eye on: None
Don't expect much movement here. Liberty and UMass just made hires, New Mexico State is only a year removed from a historic bowl appearance and Notre Dame, Army and BYU are all on fairly solid footing. Army's Jeff Monken is the likeliest coach to move up, especially if a job like Illinois comes open, and Notre Dame's Brian Kelly remains a potential NFL coaching candidate if the right situation emerges.