Joe Moorhead's departure after just two seasons at Mississippi State underscores why the fit factor shouldn't be underestimated in coaching hires.
Although there are cases of outsider coaches succeeding in unfamiliar territory -- Baylor's Matt Rhule is a perfect example -- local knowledge matters more often than not. Moorhead didn't suddenly become a bad coach, but after a college career spent in the Northeast, he struggled to adjust to life in the SEC at one of the league's tougher jobs. He also followed Dan Mullen, who had Mississippi State consistently punching above its weight class.
Mississippi State athletic director John Cohen looked outside the area for Mullen's successor, considering several offensive-minded coaches from the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic like Ohio State offensive coordinator Ryan Day, Toledo coach Jason Candle, and Moorhead, who had transformed Penn State's offense during two years as the playcaller. Moorhead won eight games in 2018, but it felt a bit hollow given the Bulldogs' historically elite defense (three-first-round draft picks). After a 3-1 start to Year 2, Mississippi State lost four of five, all by double-digits. He finished with a 14-12 record in two seasons.
Moorhead was mentioned as a candidate for Rutgers, a clearly inferior job but one in more familiar surroundings. As the season wore on, the feeling around Moorhead and the program became more dire. After an ugly bowl loss and a tumultuous team environment leading up to the game, Moorhead is out in Starkville.
Schools should never fire coaches in January, but if they do, they had better be prepared to act quickly with a replacement. As Mississippi State re-enters the market for a coach, it's likely Cohen targets candidates with better familiarity with the state, the SEC and the challenges of the job. Previous FBS head-coaching experience also should be a priority, as Moorhead had led Fordham but not a program at college football's highest level.
You won't find many "outsiders" on this list, which examines the coaches who could be next in line.
The candidates
Louisiana-Lafayette coach Billy Napier: He knows the region, as a Georgia native who spent four seasons at Alabama and landed his first head-coaching job in Louisiana. Napier, 40, brings a mix of offensive acumen and recruiting skill that Mississippi State needs to keep pace in the SEC West. He also has the ability to hire a staff that understands the area and the challenges of the job. Napier went 10-3 this season and Thursday agreed to a two-year contract extension through 2025. He might want to hold out for something else, but Mississippi State should gauge his interest.
Former Auburn coach Gene Chizik: If Mississippi State had fired Moorhead after the Egg Bowl, it would have interviewed Chizik and several other candidates with ties to the SEC. Chizik, 58, who led Auburn to the national title in 2010, hasn't coached since 2016, when he served as North Carolina's defensive coordinator. His overall head-coaching record (38-38) doesn't jump out, but he knows the region and should be able to recruit against Lane Kiffin and others. Chizik going to Mississippi State would bring the Cam Newton saga full circle.
Louisiana Tech coach Skip Holtz: Holtz has two decades of FBS head-coaching experience and has shown consistency at Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have won eight or more games in five of Holtz's seven seasons in Ruston, and have won bowl games in each of the past six seasons. Holtz, 55, went to high school in Arkansas and has worked mostly in the Southeast since 1999.
UAB coach Bill Clark: He certainly is not a foreigner to the area, spending all but one year of his coaching career at high schools or colleges in neighboring Alabama. Clark's success since UAB emerged from its two-year hiatus is remarkable. Mississippi State is a major step up and Clark's readiness would be questioned, but if he receives the right staff support, it could work. Clark, 51, certainly would have no trouble connecting with area high school and junior college coaches. He has won 20 games the past two seasons with the Blazers.
Tulane coach Willie Fritz: A poor finish after a promising start ultimately hurt Fritz's candidacy for other Power 5 jobs, like Missouri, where he would have been a strong fit. But if Mississippi State wants a veteran coach respected throughout the industry who knows the area, Fritz, 59, makes sense. He's 176-96 overall as a college coach, and he also knows the sport's junior college scene and lower divisions well from previous stops, which is essential when working in Mississippi.
Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian: Sark vs. Lane in the Egg Bowl? Woo boy. Sarkisian, 45, performed well in his return to Alabama as offensive coordinator this fall, as the Tide offense put up big numbers both before and after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's injuries. There's certainly risk here, as Sarkisian's last head-coaching stop at USC didn't end well at all. Like Kiffin, he'll likely get another chance at a Power 5 school eventually. Sarkisian is a strong playcaller and recruiter who now has some familiarity in the SEC.
Texas offensive analyst Larry Fedora: If Mississippi State wants experience and area ties, Fedora would be a good choice. He went 34-19 at Southern Miss, including a 12-2 record, a Conference USA title and a top-20 finish in the AP poll in 2011. Fedora, 57, coached in the SEC at Florida from 2002 to 2004 and could help Mississippi State's recruiting efforts in Texas, as a native of the state who has worked at three in-state programs.
Rich Rodriguez: Several others would need to say no, but Rodriguez would bring Power 5 head-coaching experience and knowledge of the state after serving as Ole Miss' offensive coordinator this past season. Rodriguez, 56, showed he hasn't lost his touch as a playcaller, as the Rebels put up numbers against LSU, Alabama and others. Mississippi State would have to investigate the circumstances around Rodriguez's departure from Arizona. Although Rodriguez didn't fit at Michigan, he likely would connect much better with Mississippi State's fan base, a key requirement for this hire.
Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Todd Monken: An ugly end to the Browns season and reports that Monken was ripping the team to opposing coaches might not help his candidacy, but he's another candidate whom Mississippi State likely would have interviewed if it had fired Moorhead earlier. Monken, 53, spent three seasons at Southern Miss, going 9-5 in his final year with a division title before heading to the NFL. He also knows the region from assistant-coaching stints at both LSU and Louisiana Tech.
Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele: He has worked in the SEC West for all but three seasons since 2007, logging two stints at Alabama, one at LSU and one at Auburn, where he has dramatically upgraded the Tigers' defense. Although his lone FBS head-coaching stint didn't go well (9-36 at Baylor), he interviewed two years ago for the head-coaching vacancy at Tennessee and could be ready for another chance to lead a program. Few coaches in college football have spent time at more elite-level programs -- and around elite-level head coaches -- than the 61-year-old Steele.
Recommendation
Billy Napier: He makes the most sense after the Moorhead mistake. Napier is young, rooted in the Southeast and able to both recruit and develop players, especially on offense. He can challenge Kiffin in the state and potentially take on some of the SEC West heavyweights. The question is whether Napier will take the job. If he's on board, Mississippi State should get a deal done.