After a longer-than-normal wait to award the 2020 Heisman Trophy, let's not waste any time in examining who could win college football's top individual honor in 2021.
A disclaimer: This incredibly early list of candidates hardly guarantees Heisman success. LSU's Joe Burrow didn't appear on the list two years ago, and while I did include an Alabama wide receiver in the 2020 forecast, it was Jaylen Waddle, not DeVonta Smith.
All four of this year's Heisman finalists are expected to declare for the NFL draft after next week's CFP national championship. The number of offensive stars departing for the NFL creates an air of mystery around the 2021 Heisman race, and programs like Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Florida and Texas will be replacing accomplished quarterbacks. Although not every draft-eligible player has made his decision, I'm not including the players who are widely expected to move on to the next level.
Like it or not, the Heisman is driven by hype. Spotlighted players from CFP contenders simply have a better chance to win. While stars from non-brand-name programs aren't ineligible, they need to carry some level of name recognition to truly contend.
Here's a look at 17 candidates, from the expected to the surprising to the new:
Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler
The 2020 season marked the first time since 2015 that an Oklahoma quarterback wasn't a Heisman finalist. Expect that to change in 2021.
Rattler put up strong numbers this season -- 3,031 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, seven interceptions, 67.5% completions -- and led OU from an 0-2 start to nine straight wins, a Big 12 title and a Cotton Bowl championship. And he only threw two interceptions in the final seven games. If he builds on his first season as the starter, he should get an invitation to New York and have a great chance to be the Sooners' third Heisman winner under coach Lincoln Riley.
Rattler isn't the runner that Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield were for the Sooners, but his arm strength is exceptional. His next step is getting a bit more consistent with his throwing -- Riley's best Oklahoma quarterbacks consistently exceed 70% on their completions -- and putting up more 300-yard games (he only had two in the final eight games).
North Carolina QB Sam Howell
Howell's career trajectory mirrors the program's ascent under coach Mack Brown. The next logical steps are Howell pushing for the Heisman and North Carolina pushing for its first ACC championship since 1980. While the latter remains difficult because of Clemson, Howell should be in the running for multiple national honors.
After a record-setting freshman season (3,641 pass yards, 38 touchdowns), Howell significantly improved his accuracy in his second season, boosting his completion percentage to 68.1 (up from 61.4% in 2019) while averaging 10.6 yards per attempt. This past season, Howell eclipsed 200 pass yards in every game, had three or more touchdowns passes six times and only one multi-interception performance. He led the ACC with 30 touchdowns passes, and he ranks ninth nationally in efficiency.
A third year in coordinator Phil Longo's offense only will help Howell, who impressed even in defeat against Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl. He spread the ball around nicely to his receivers and will continue to benefit from the talent North Carolina has been adding through recruiting.
Iowa State QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall
Pinch yourselves, Cyclones fans, you will have two legitimate Heisman contenders in the 2021 season.
Purdy is among the nation's most productive and experienced quarterbacks, a three-year starter who has helped take Iowa State to new heights and a team-record 23 wins. The first-team All-Big 12 quarterback has led the Cyclones to victories over every team in the Big 12. His career statistics jump out: 8,982 pass yards, 62 touchdowns, 25 interceptions, 66.1% completions.
Hall is a Doak Walker Award finalist who recorded nine 100-yard rushing performances and finished with 1,572 yards and 21 touchdowns, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The rising junior ultimately will have to deliver more highlight-reel runs to generate genuine Heisman buzz, but he's on the national radar.
The concern here is whether two Heisman candidates ultimately equals none. I call this the Wisconsin 2011 problem (Russell Wilson, Montee Ball). Alabama is the rare program that can have multiple Heisman contenders. While Iowa State's profile has grown under coach Matt Campbell, it likely isn't there yet.
Georgia QB JT Daniels
The Bulldogs seemingly have found the quarterback-coordinator combination that gives them the best chance to get back to the CFP. If playcaller Todd Monken stays for a second year, Georgia could have its most complete offense in the Kirby Smart era. Daniels certainly raised the team's quarterback play after recovering from his knee injury to play the final four games. He completed 67.2% of his passes for 1,231 yards with 10 touchdowns and only two interceptions as Georgia's offense finally began to lean on its passing game. Georgia is returning a talented group of young receivers, backs and tight ends, so Daniels should have a chance to put up huge numbers in 2021.
Miami QB D'Eriq King
King announced Dec. 26 that he would return to Miami in 2021. Three days later, King tore the ACL in his right knee during the Cheez-It Bowl; it is the same knee he injured late in the 2018 season. Miami expects King to be ready in time for fall camp, but how he looks after a second ligament tear in the same knee will determine his Heisman chances.
When healthy, King is one of the nation's most dynamic quarterbacks. He energized Miami's offense in his first season as the starter, passing for 2,686 yards with 23 touchdowns and only five interceptions (one in the final six games). King's playmaking skills as a runner (538 yards, four touchdowns) also stand out. The Heisman is also often about a great story, and King's triumph through different levels of adversity would be an easy one to support.
Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei
As Uiagalelei enters one of college football's highest-profile positions, he already has some tread on his tires. The freshman stepped in for Trevor Lawrence this season and started two games, completing 55 of 89 attempts for 881 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Although Clemson lost to Notre Dame in his start, he put up the highest passing total (432 yards) a Fighting Irish defense has ever allowed.
Uiagalelei is 6-foot-4, 250 pounds with a huge arm and, like Lawrence, possesses the ability to make every throw on the field. Uiagalelei is filling huge shoes and needs a big offseason, but if he starts quickly, he should factor in the Heisman race.
UCF QB Dillon Gabriel
Players from Group of 5 teams must deliver extra magic and production to generate Heisman traction. Gabriel is a nationally known name and his numbers in two years as UCF's starter demand everyone's attention: 7,223 pass yards, 61 touchdowns, 11 interceptions. Gabriel has a knack for putting up silly stats -- he eclipsed 400 pass yards four times this past season. He will need to improve his accuracy (59.7% career completions), and he ultimately will need to lead UCF back to a New Year's Six bowl or possibly even CFP contention.
UCF is set to face Louisville and Boise State in nonleague play and will face reigning AAC champion Cincinnati on the road. Gabriel's performances in those games will determine whether he has any realistic chance at the Heisman.
Alabama QB Bryce Young
Some expected Young, ESPN's top dual-threat quarterback and No. 5 overall player in the 2020 class, to take the top job from Mac Jones this past fall. Though Jones quickly put that possibility to rest, Young will likely get his opportunity next fall under a new offensive coordinator. The replacement for playcaller Steve Sarkisian will be essential for Young, who brings different skills from Jones but boasts a strong arm despite being only 6-foot and 194 pounds. "He's extremely smart," an Alabama source told me.
Young's ability to pick up a new system and build chemistry with what should largely be a new-look offense will be fascinating. He boasts immense talent, and Alabama is at a point where its quarterback will contend for the Heisman almost every year.
USC QB Kedon Slovis
Slovis appeared on last year's contenders list after a record-setting freshman season at USC. He remained productive in 2020, despite five interceptions in his final two games, and he has two-year totals of 5,423 pass yards and 47 touchdowns while completing 70% of his attempts.
Slovis plays in a quarterback-friendly offense under coordinator Graham Harrell, and he always has a deep and talented receiving corps at his disposal. His challenge will be getting USC into the playoff race, as Pac-12 players tend to struggle to track for the Heisman if they're not on the national radar every week. But Slovis plays for the right program -- USC boasts seven Heisman winners, six more than any other Pac-12 program -- at the highest-profile position in the league.
Ohio State QB to be named
The Buckeyes are joining teams like Oklahoma, Alabama and Clemson in producing annual Heisman contenders at quarterback. Since Ryan Day arrived after the 2016 season, he helped J.T. Barrett to a productive senior season, followed by historic quarterback performances by Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields. Day's next task will likely be developing a quarterback he recruited into a superstar.
C.J. Stroud and Jack Miller are expected to compete to replace Fields unless Ohio State ventures into the transfer portal for a signal-caller again. Stroud rated as ESPN's No. 2 pocket passer in the 2020 recruiting class, and Miller also was an ESPN 300 prospect. Kyle McCord, ESPN's No. 4 pocket passer and No. 29 overall player in the 2021 class, also joins the mix this spring. Day is an elite quarterback developer and Ohio State should have one of the nation's best wide receiver groups in 2021. Whoever emerges as QB1 will likely push for the program's first Heisman since 2006.
Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr.
Like D'Eriq King, Penix has a story that's easy to get behind in a Heisman campaign. He has had even worse luck with injuries, which have cut each of his three seasons short at IU. His ACL tear Nov. 28 against Maryland casts doubt on his effectiveness in 2021. But Penix is a dynamic talent, as he showed this season against Ohio State (491 pass yards, five touchdowns, one interception).
He limits mistakes -- eight career interceptions on 414 pass attempts -- and he can be very accurate, as he showed in 2019 (68.8% completions). He ultimately needs to get through a full season to have a chance, but he benefits from national showcase opportunities every year with division games against Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan.
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall
The 2020 season put the Chanticleers on the national map. They're an easy team to love, and McCall will have an easier time generating Heisman buzz than most Group of 5 players. He was exceptional as a freshman, throwing 26 touchdown passes and only three interceptions and completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,488 yards. His limited production against BYU (10 completions, 85 yards) is a bit of a concern, and Coastal Carolina's schedule lacks showcase opportunities (Kansas is its only Power 5 opponent). But if McCall can lead the Chants to another undefeated regular season, his name will remain in the national discussion.
Texas RB Bijan Robinson
Texas' offseason quarterback competition will get more attention, but Robinson looks like the team's offensive star as the Steve Sarkisian era begins in Austin. The freshman emerged down the stretch as a big-time playmaker, piling 355 rush yards and four touchdowns in his final two games, despite logging only 19 total carries. Robinson finished the year averaging 8.2 yards per carry, and his touches should go up substantially in 2021. He also could grow into an effective wide receiver in Sarkisian's offense. After a choppy start to the season, ESPN's No. 3 running back and No. 21 overall player in the 2020 class began to look the part.
Ole Miss QB Matt Corral
Corral is a fringe Heisman contender, but he is also one of the more interesting players on this list, and not just because he plays for Lane Kiffin. The Heisman often hinges on numbers and exposure, and Corral could excel in both areas. He passed for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns in Kiffin's up-tempo, pass-heavy offense in 2020. He completed more than 70% of his attempts against both Florida and Alabama, combining for five touchdowns and only one interception in those games. Corral also delivered virtually flawless performances against Vanderbilt (31-of-34 passing, 412 yards, six touchdowns) and South Carolina (28-of-32 passing, 513 yards, four touchdowns).
Corral must avoid implosions like he had against Arkansas and LSU, when he threw 11 of his 14 interceptions. But if Corral is consistently efficient, he should put up the highlights and stat lines -- against notable competition in the SEC West -- to be a Heisman factor.
Arizona State QB Jayden Daniels
After an impressive freshman year in 2019, Daniels never got a full opportunity to showcase his progress as Arizona State played only four games this past fall. He still displayed efficiency -- five touchdown passes, only one interception -- and ran the ball well against both USC and Oregon State. The slender signal caller should be poised for stardom in Year 3, especially if Arizona State makes a push for the Pac-12 championship. Daniels has 3,644 pass yards with 22 touchdowns and three interceptions as QB1 for the Sun Devils, who return most of their top pass-catchers in 2021. He ultimately must show greater accuracy (60.2% career completions) and deliver some wow performances early in the season.
Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller
Coach Jimbo Fisher's offense is coming together in College Station, and Spiller will be a centerpiece in 2021. Texas A&M is replacing four-year starting quarterback Kellen Mond. Spiller, who recorded six 100-yard games for the Aggies, should see his workload rise after eclipsing 20 carries just three times in 2020. The 6-foot-1, 225-pound Spiller ultimately must produce more highlights, especially against defending SEC champion Alabama (52 rush yards in two games). Spiller has 16 career starts and All-SEC honors in each of his first two seasons. He has 1,982 rush yards and 19 touchdowns, and he has been an effective receiver (49 receptions). If Spiller and Texas A&M continue on this trajectory, he should garner some Heisman buzz.