The 2020 season is now over for 125 FBS teams, and only one game remains. We will talk plenty about the upcoming College Football Playoff National Championship in the coming days, but with bowl season all but wrapped up, now's a good time to dive into some of college football's other top teams. Here's a look at the 10 teams, in no particular order, that played in CFP or New Year's Six bowls and aren't Alabama or Ohio State.
Notre Dame
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 10-2 and 16th (ninth in the preseason)
"We're going to keep getting back here, and everybody can keep saying Notre Dame is not good enough. Well, you know what? You're gonna have a problem because we're gonna keep winning games, we're gonna keep getting back here, and we're gonna break through. And then I'm going to be terrible to be at a press conference with. Terrible."
You can't really blame Notre Dame's Brian Kelly for being frustrated. He has built a program that about 120 FBS head coaches would trade for in a heartbeat. He recruits at a top-10 to top-15 level, and his teams produce top-15 performances more steadily than just about anyone. When his Fighting Irish have the right combination of QB play and overall experience, they win lots of games. They've finished with double-digit wins in five of the past six years, and this should be their second AP top-5 finish (or at least top-6 finish) in three years.
There's always someone quite a bit better, though.
Notre Dame is good enough to earn big-game opportunities and just limited enough to lose them, usually by quite a bit. This season, Kelly fielded maybe his most physically impressive team, and quarterback Ian Book provided leadership and occasional big plays. The Irish beat a Trevor Lawrence-less Clemson and looked genuinely awesome in wins over North Carolina (they were almost perfect in the second half) and Pitt, among others. But their year ended with a 24-point loss to a full-strength Clemson and a 17-point loss to Alabama that was, considering the underlying stats (7.9 yards per play to 4.7, 64% success rate to 35%), extremely generous to the Irish. And once again, Kelly was left to defend his program in front of a microphone after a big game.
There are indeed worse fates than this. But can it change?
In the short term, probably not. We'll see who claims an extra year of eligibility in 2021, but odds are good that Notre Dame will have quite a bit to replace. In the Rose Bowl, the Irish started 12 guys in their fourth year of eligibility, plus another (OLB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah) good enough to potentially declare early for the NFL draft. There are young, exciting players -- running backs Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree, tight end Michael Mayer, cornerback Clarence Lewis -- but making a repeat CFP run next fall could be pretty unlikely.
In the long term, though, further improvement is at least conceivable. Under Kelly, Notre Dame has played approximately to its level of recruiting and the Irish might be inching upward in that department. Their 2021 haul ranks seventh in the country and Kelly has signed 41 ESPN top-300 recruits over the past four recruiting cycles after signing 34 the four before that.
That's not enough to keep up with the Bamas and Ohio States, but it's improvement all the same. And if Notre Dame becomes more high-end in specific ways -- namely, speed on the perimeter, which was an immense difference in the last two games of the year -- then Kelly will give himself better odds of one day becoming "terrible at a press conference."
Clemson
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 10-2 and third (third in the preseason)
When Trevor Lawrence was in the lineup, Dabo Swinney's program became almost upset-proof, going 3-2 in the College Football Playoff and unbeaten otherwise. It was genuinely surprising that Lawrence's career will likely end with only one national title, but it was still almost literally impossible for the Tigers to be more successful than they became after signing the five-star (and likely future No. 1 pick) from Cartersville, Georgia. With him, Swinney consolidated all of the on-field gains the program made with Deshaun Watson & Co. and raised the overall recruiting game, which was already pretty good. Clemson went from a program on the rise to a program risen.
Now can the Tigers consolidate these gains, at least without a slight, 2017-style blip, when they won the ACC but ranked only fifth in SP+ (the shame, the horror) and got manhandled by Alabama in the CFP semis?
It's hard to even pretend to worry about Clemson's overall prospects moving forward, but with Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne almost certainly gone, plus any other seniors who don't use their bonus eligibility -- receivers Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell, linebackers James Skalski and Baylon Spector, safety Nolan Turner, etc. -- can the Tigers establish the same level of play without at least a brief setback, or a random upset, in 2021?
They'll certainly have a shot. Potential Lawrence successor D.J. Uiagalelei looked good when Lawrence was out with the coronavirus, the receiving corps could see a lot of turnover but still has countless young blue-chippers on whom to call, and the defense might lose only Skalski, Spector and Turner. These three and tackle Nyles Pinckney were the only seniors among Clemson's 14 leading tacklers. Six of those 14 were sophomores, and blue-chip freshmen Myles Murphy, Bryan Bresee and Trenton Simpson were immediate difference-makers. The 2021 Clemson defense could be the Tigers' best in a few years, which is a pretty lofty thing to say. That will take them awfully far even with a potential step backward on offense.
Oklahoma
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 9-2 and fourth (seventh in the preseason)
By the time we got to see the team Lincoln Riley intended to field in 2020, it was too late. With running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive end Ronnie Perkins both suspended to start the year following a failed drug test last winter, Oklahoma had neither the run game to take pressure off superstar freshman quarterback Spencer Rattler, nor the havoc-creation ability up front to justify defensive coordinator Alex Grinch's kamikaze scheme. It cost them dearly during their 0-2 start in Big 12 play.
Credit to Riley and his Sooners, though, for still showing us that team when they got the chance. Stevenson and Perkins tagged in Game 6 and tried their damnedest to make up for lost time. In six games, Stevenson posted 876 combined rushing and receiving yards and Perkins logged 10.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Projected over 14 games, that's a 2,000-yard pace for the former, 25 TFLs for the latter.
In their last six games, which included wins over a top-10 Florida, a top-25 (probably) Oklahoma State and a revenge win over Iowa State, they outscored their opponents by an average of 46-18. They charged up from 12th in SP+ in mid-November to fourth. They finished the year back in the offensive SP+ top-three, where they belong, and after averaging a defensive SP+ ranking of 52nd over the past four years, they finish 2020 15th.
Now we have to wait and see how the 2021 Sooner squad takes shape. Who among the destructive trio of Perkins, Isaiah Thomas and Nik Bonitto returns? Freshmen Seth McGowan and Marcus Major combined for 10 carries and 183 yards in the Cotton Bowl. Are they ready to take over at RB if or when Stevenson decides to move on? OU will be far more experienced next fall regardless, but 2020's difference-makers made a spectacular difference and we don't yet know who will choose to run it back.
Georgia
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 8-2 and fifth (fourth in the preseason)
Last March, right before the sports world paused, I declared Georgia the "most interesting spring team" in college football. The Dawgs were to combine the most proven defense in the country with a new offensive coordinator (Todd Monken), a new quarterback (Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman) and a receiving corps with massive upside and almost no proven entities. It was easy to talk yourself into Georgia being a contender and also to see this as a transition year of sorts.
It was more or less both. Newman opted out, another late transfer (USC's JT Daniels) wasn't cleared to play at the start of the season, redshirt freshman D'Wan Mathis bombed his brief audition, and Kirby Smart rode with former walk-on Stetson Bennett at QB. It worked out OK when UGA wasn't playing against elite offenses, but Florida and Alabama both put up 40-plus points and the Dawgs couldn't keep up. Daniels finally entered the lineup and looked spectacular, and late in the regular season we got a two-game glimpse (UGA 94, Mizzou/South Carolina 30) of what could have been.
Even after struggling at times against Cincinnati's elite defense, Daniels finished his four-game audition completing 67% of his passes for 1,231 yards, 10 touchdowns and two picks. Projected over the proverbial 14-game season, that's 4,300 yards and 35 TDs -- not quite the 14-game pace of a Mac Jones (4,700 and 42 TDs) or Kyle Trask (5,000 and 50), but more than enough when combined with the typical UGA defense and run game.
Daniels will return with a dynamite receiving corps of Kearis Jackson, Jermaine Burton, the Loki-esque George Pickens and tight end Darnell Washington (who will hopefully secure a much larger role), plus an experienced line and [insert any number of blue-chip running backs here]. The defense will lose at least six starters, but if the offense takes two steps forward, that will account for a defensive half-step back. Dare I say, Georgia's one of the sport's most interesting teams once again.
Florida
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 8-4 and sixth (fifth in the preseason)
2020: The year that Dan Mullen stopped governing himself, proved the potential his Florida program has ... and proved the limitations it still has to overcome.
Mullen leaned into a Mike Leachian "I'm going to say whatever pops into my head, whether I should or not" role this fall, encouraging Florida fans to fill The Swamp in the middle of a pandemic, seemingly encouraging a brawl against Missouri and saying pitiable things like, "The last game this 2020 team played was 11 days ago" and "I thought our scout team guys played well" following an embarrassing Cotton Bowl performance against Oklahoma. His team backed up his mouth for quite a while, though.
With help from a couple of the biggest matchup nightmares in the sport (tight end Kyle Pitts and slot/utility man Kadarius Toney), quarterback Kyle Trask, a former recruiting afterthought, turned into a Heisman finalist. The Gators ended Georgia's three-year SEC East title streak and proved the only SEC team capable of staying within two touchdowns of Alabama.
They also disappointed on defense. After jumping to seventh in defensive SP+ in 2019, they fell out of the top 30. The pass rush was solid but far from great and despite coordinator Todd Grantham's generally aggressive intentions, they ranked a paltry 81st in success rate allowed. They finished the season by allowing 37 points to a diminished LSU, then a combined 107 to Bama and Oklahoma.
Florida will likely have a good offense no matter what -- Mullen rarely fields anything less -- but losing Pitts and Toney, two players who committed to UF before Mullen arrived, could make them look a lot more conventional. It would surprise no one if Mullen chose to look for a new defensive coordinator, too. That's quite a bit of change and it will likely mean the Gators start 2021 a few steps behind Georgia.
Then again, we thought they were behind the Dawgs heading into this fall, too.
Texas A&M
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 9-1 and eighth (11th in the preseason)
Texas A&M's greatest strength in 2020 was excelling in the mundane. The Aggies dominated third downs and field position, and they snuffed out games with excellent late-game situational play.
That made their 41-27 Orange Bowl win over North Carolina a pretty accurate impression. The Aggies were 6-for-14 on third and fourth down; UNC was 6-for-18. Their average starting field position was 33.5 to UNC's 28.1. And when they found themselves trailing 27-20 early in the fourth quarter, they shifted into fifth gear and went on a 21-0 run.
A&M finished a well-rounded eighth in SP+ -- ninth on offense, 14th on defense -- and provided proof of concept for Jimbo Fisher in College Station. After a second-year setback, he fielded a team that lived up to most of the promise it hinted at in recent years but couldn't consistently reach.
This is a big offseason ahead. Quarterback Kellen Mond is a senior, as are four starting offensive linemen and five of A&M's top 10 tacklers (including elite linebacker Buddy Johnson). The Aggies are likely to lose some true difference-makers, but most awesome teams do. They're still likely to bring back running back Isaiah Spiller, utility man Ainias Smith, pass-rusher DeMarvin Leal and exciting youngsters like running back Devon Achane, whose 76-yard explosion completely flipped the Orange Bowl.
Perhaps the biggest key for A&M in 2021 will be creating more easy scores. The Aggies' offensive uniqueness -- they were led in receiving by tight end Jalen Wydermyer and Smith, a part-time running back, and only one outside receiver caught more than 20 passes -- was also a sign of limitation. They were a lovely 12th in success rate but were only 85th in marginal explosiveness, 99th through the air. This meant they had to execute a number of mistake-free plays to generate points. If Mond moves on and is replaced by a youngster, the frequency of mistakes could rise. A&M needs its explosiveness to rise as well.
Cincinnati
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 9-1 and ninth (33rd in the preseason)
Oof.
A more just and inclusive system would have given Cincinnati a shot at the national title -- as the No. 7 or so seed in an expanded playoff, for instance -- and kinder treatment by the place-kicking gods would have allowed them to finish unbeaten with a Peach Bowl win over Georgia.
Alas, they got neither. Cincy's Cole Smith missed a 33-yarder in the second quarter and after a series of odd late-game decisions from both coaching staffs, Georgia's Jack Podlesny bombed in a 53-yarder with three seconds left. After trailing for most of the game, the Dawgs survived 24-21 and Cincinnati had to settle for a 9-1 final record. The defense mostly backed up a lofty No. 6 defensive SP+ ranking by holding the Dawgs to a 37% success rate and shutting down a strong run game, but the offense needed a little more second-half juice.
Consolation for this disappointment comes from two things: (1) While the coaching carousel never totally stops spinning, odds appear strong that Luke Fickell will remain Cincy's head coach in 2021 (we'll see if he can hold onto defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman), and (2) the depth chart is still exciting.
Quarterback Desmond Ridder is a junior, running back Jerome Ford (who outran the entire Georgia defense on a 79-yard third-quarter score) is a sophomore and all-conference left tackle James Hudson is a junior. We don't yet know if everybody who can return will, but the offense should have the pieces to sustain this year's improvement.
The defense, admittedly, will have some key players to replace. Six first- or second-team all-AAC defenders are seniors, though maybe the defense's two best players -- junior end Myjai Sanders and sophomore corner Ahmad Gardner (whose Peach Bowl absence was felt) -- are not. Further improvement on offense might be offset with some defensive regression, but if that means the Bearcats will be about as good next year ... well ... that means they'll be awfully good. And they've got trips to Indiana and Notre Dame on the 2021 docket.
Iowa State
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 9-3 and 11th (29th in the preseason)
Iowa State's most successful football season ever began with a loss to Louisiana. There is perhaps some poetry in that -- an extra bit of self-made adversity to overcome on the way to greatness -- but the Cyclones were mostly awesome thereafter. They couldn't quite end a century-long conference title drought, but they reached their first Big 12 championship game, split two games with Oklahoma and finished the campaign by lifting the Fiesta Bowl trophy, easily their biggest bowl win ever. Matt Campbell has not only stayed in Ames long enough to deliver on his obvious potential, but it also appears that, barring a shocking move, his stay isn't over just yet.
It appears he'll have Brock Purdy next year, too. The junior quarterback told media he plans to return to Ames for his senior season and in this massive time of roster uncertainty -- almost every team is saying "we should have Player A back" or "we'll see who returns" -- Iowa State is all but certain to have one of the best backfields in the country in 2021. Purdy threw for 2,750 yards and 19 touchdowns in 12 games and running back Breece Hall produced 1,752 combined rushing and receiving yards and finished sixth in the Heisman voting as a true sophomore. The Cyclones listed only two senior starters on offense, so Hall and Purdy won't be the only experienced pieces.
Jon Heacock's defense improved dramatically after a slow start and finished a robust 11th in defensive SP+. There might be pieces to replace in the secondary, and ace pass-rusher JaQuan Bailey is a senior, but even if he's gone, sophomore end Will McDonald IV is great. There's nothing to suggest a huge defensive drop-off is coming, and as strange as it may sound in this oligarchical sport, Iowa State will enter 2021 as one of college football's most proven entities and a threat for another top-10 run.
North Carolina
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 8-4 and 14th (17th in the preseason)
UNC fielded one of the nation's most exciting offenses behind the exploits of running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams and big-play receiver Dyami Brown, but none of them played in the Orange Bowl. Linebacker and defensive leader Chazz Surratt didn't either. Maybe their biggest bowl since 1949 ended up becoming more of a testing ground for next year's Tar Heels team.
That the Heels led A&M in the fourth quarter was a lovely sign. Freshman receivers Josh Downs and Khafre Brown caught six passes for 131 yards, and a Surratt-less front seven held A&M star Isaiah Spiller in check (15 combined carries and receptions, 69 yards before leaving with injury). A&M surged late, but UNC backed up a decent amount of its top-15 bona fides without four of its five best players.
It was a moral victory of sorts even if they weren't aiming for one, and with quarterback Sam Howell and most of UNC's Orange Bowl lineup likely returning -- receiver Dazz Newsome and linebacker Tomon Fox were just about the only difference-making seniors on the field -- it's pretty clear who the ACC Coastal favorite will be next fall.
Mack Brown has silenced doubters who scoffed at his return to coaching two years ago. (Note: I was one of the loudest scoffers.) He hired a pair of exciting coordinators -- Phil Longo and Jay Bateman -- and quickly flipped Howell from his initial Florida State commitment. That gave his second UNC tenure an immediate boost of youthful energy and the Heels charged to 30th in SP+ in 2019, then 14th in 2020. The ACC could desperately use sustained excellence from UNC to boost a league that once again had the worst SP+ average of any power conference despite the temporary addition of Notre Dame. Schools such as Miami, Virginia Tech and Louisville still have plenty of promise, but UNC came the closest to breaking through this fall and could be excellent once more in Howell's junior season.
Oregon
2020 record and SP+ ranking: 4-3 and 18th (12th in the preseason)
The Pac-12's 2020 season was one of incomplete impressions. Only three teams played more than six games and four played only four. Only Oregon and Colorado played in bowls, and both lost to Big 12 teams that looked like they had taken far more reps this year (they had).
It's a damn shame, too, because there were all sorts of interesting, half-told stories out west. Washington had a ferocious pass rush led by out-of-nowhere star Zion Tupuola-Fetui. Arizona State's run game, keyed by the combo of DeaMonte Trayanum and Rachaad White, was, per carry, maybe the best in the country. USC improved defensively behind safety Talanoa Hufanga, but he's off to the pros already. UCLA's offense was genuinely exciting for the first time in years.
We got the most extended look at Oregon, and while the Ducks didn't exactly blow us away (they won the Pac-12 without winning their division because 2020 was silly), the promise shined through in glimpses. They outgained a good Iowa State team by 2.3 yards per play in the Fiesta Bowl -- how'd they lose by 17? Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers -- the run game was efficient despite a brand new offensive line, QB-of-the-future Tyler Shough completed 64% of his passes, sophomore receivers Mycah Pittman and Devon Williams were big-play threats, and Oregon finished coordinator Joe Moorhead's first season ranked 17th in offensive SP+ and 13th in success rate. It appears a strong majority of 2020's production will return in 2021.
Defensively, it was a bit more mixed. The sophomore trio of end Kayvon Thibodeaux, linebacker Mase Funa and corner Mykael Wright was about as strong as expected, but the Ducks didn't turn high pressure numbers into high sack totals and couldn't defend the run well enough to create third-and-longs for Thibodeaux to feast. Coordinator Andy Avalos is a contender for the Boise State head-coaching job, too, so the surest Oregon unit of the last couple of years enters 2021 unsure.