College football's early signing period starts Wednesday, and it wouldn't be prudent to simply call this signing day. The majority of FBS prospects have signed in December the past few recruiting classes, and that trend should continue this week.
It has been an unbelievably unusual recruiting cycle with this 2021 class because of COVID-19, which has presented challenges for both recruits and coaches. But they have made it to this point, when it's time to make a decision or to close, depending on which side they're on.
Before the mayhem starts, here is a look at which prospects are planning on announcing a commitment, where the top schools rank, which recruits will sign early, who will wait and the challenges that came along with this recruiting cycle.
Where do things stand?
Alabama currently leads the way with the No. 1-ranked class overall. The Crimson Tide have 17 ESPN 300 commitments and three five-stars, led by offensive tackles Tommy Brockermeyer and J.C. Latham, as well as defensive end Dallas Turner.
Those 17 ESPN 300 commitments are tied with Ohio State, which has the No. 2-ranked class, for the most of any FBS program. The Buckeyes have two five-star commitments with defensive end Jack Sawyer, the No. 1 recruit overall, and the No. 1 running back in the class, TreVeyon Henderson.
Ohio State and Alabama are going to be in a tight race down the stretch for that top spot, but they might have to wait a month or two to see who wins out.
Five-star defensive tackle J.T. Tuimoloau could end up being the deciding factor. The No. 4 recruit overall is considering Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Washington, Michigan, Oklahoma and USC, but he is likely going to wait to announce until January or February, so his decision could have a big impact.
Georgia is sitting at No. 3 with a chance to move up and potentially take the No. 1 spot if all goes well for the Dawgs. The staff still has five-star defensive end Korey Foreman, as well as ESPN 300 linebacker Xavian Sorey and defensive tackle Maason Smith, considering Georgia on their respective lists.
Clemson and LSU are at Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, and Oregon leads all Pac-12 teams at No. 6 overall.
Oregon has quietly put together an excellent class. While the staff built a solid foundation of young defensive prospects over the past few classes, the 2021 cycle has quite a few offensive playmakers. The Ducks' top seven commits are on offense, led by wide receiver Isaiah Brevard, the No. 58-ranked recruit overall, and quarterback Ty Thompson, the No. 65 prospect in the class.
Florida, Notre Dame, North Carolina and Miami round out the top 10.
As of right now, there are only 40 ESPN 300 recruits who have not made a commitment. That includes three five-stars in Foreman (No. 3 overall), Tuimoloau and linebacker Terrence Lewis (No. 10), all the top at their respective positions. There are 10 top-50 recruits uncommitted and 17 top-100 prospects still available.
Two quarterbacks still on the board are Jake Garcia and Jaxson Dart. Garcia, ranked No. 18 overall and fresh off a decommitment from USC, is heavily considering Miami and Florida State, and his departure from the Trojans' class might actually make an opening for the Trojans to land Dart, ranked No. 73 overall.
Tristan Leigh is the top-ranked offensive tackle and is down to Oklahoma, LSU and Florida, among a few others.
These numbers are about to change, however, as quite a few of the top prospects are about to make their decision and sign with their respective schools.
Will we see a similar number sign in December as in years past?
The first year of the early signing period in 2017, roughly 71% of FBS prospects and 221 of the ESPN 300 recruits signed early. The number increased in the 2019 cycle with nearly 77% of FBS prospects and 260 ESPN 300 recruits signing in December.
In that 2019 class, there were only 14 ESPN 300 recruits left who were both unsigned and uncommitted. In last year's class, only 17 ESPN 300 prospects were unsigned or uncommitted after December.
While a good amount of the 40 uncommitted ESPN 300 prospects are expected to announce their decisions on Wednesday, we should still be in the neighborhood of the numbers we have seen in the past.
There is a chance we see a slight dip with some recruits, even if they are currently committed, deciding to wait to sign to make sure they know they're making the right decision. With seasons still going on during the early signing period as well as coaching changes about to happen, there is a chance some prospects might take a step back and hold off until February.
Who's announcing a commitment?
There are going to be some big names who will announce on Wednesday. It starts with Sorey, No. 20-ranked prospect overall who is down to Alabama, Florida and Georgia. Sorey, who was planning to visit Florida this past weekend, has kept things pretty close to the vest and all three schools realistically seem to have a shot.
Offensive tackle Savion Byrd, the No. 27-ranked recruit, is planning to announce on Wednesday and revealed his top five in November: Auburn, LSU, Oklahoma, SMU and Texas. Oklahoma and SMU have a very good shot, but he, too, has kept things quiet.
There are also ESPN 300 defensive end Tunmise Adeleye, the No. 40 recruit, who is down to Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M, and ESPN 300 running back Donovan Edwards, who still has Georgia, Notre Dame and Michigan on his list.
Smith is another highly touted defensive tackle who is announcing on Wednesday. He's the No. 56-ranked recruit and could end up at LSU, Georgia or Alabama with the Tigers seemingly in a good spot.
ESPN 300 prospects Markevious Brown, Damarius McGhee, Yanni Karlaftis and Dart are a few of the other big names planning to announce. ESPN 300 wide receiver Xavier Worthy is committed to Michigan, but recently took a visit to Alabama and will announce a final decision on Wednesday.
ESPN 300 offensive lineman Bryce Foster is planning to sign early, but will be announcing his commitment on Friday from a list of LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas and Texas A&M, with the Aggies and Oklahoma fighting in that recruitment.
A few of these prospects will announce their decisions on ESPN2 within ESPN's national signing day coverage that starts at noon ET. Dart will be the first prospect to announce at 12:15, followed by McGhee at 12:45, and the show will finish with Edwards announcing at 1:30 and Sorey at 1:45.
Who's announcing after the early signing period?
There also will be a handful of prospects who sign early but wait to announce a decision until Jan. 2. That group includes Foreman, the No. 3 recruit, who has a top list of Arizona State, Clemson, Georgia, LSU and USC.
He'll be joined on Jan. 2 by Leigh, who is considering LSU, Oklahoma, Clemson, Florida and Ohio State, and Lewis, who recently decommitted from Tennessee and announced on Monday that he will choose between Maryland and Tennessee on Jan. 2.
That date corresponds with the All-American Bowl and the Under Armour All-America game, which have both been canceled and are typically both places where top recruits announce commitments.
Running back Camar Wheaton, the No. 41-ranked prospect overall, is going to announce on Dec. 23 with Alabama and Oklahoma as his final two and the Sooners seemingly in a good spot.
Corner Ceyair Wright and defensive end Elijah Jeudy also are scheduled to commit on the same day.
A few other prospects are planning to wait until February to announce. ESPN 300 defensive tackle Tywone Malone, ranked No. 43 overall, is considering Ole Miss, Rutgers, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Florida State and USC.
ESPN 300 defensive end Bryce Langston, defensive tackle Tiaoalil Savea and wide receiver Quenton Barnes are all planning to wait until February to make their decisions and will have the ears of most college coaches throughout the next month.
How will the coaching carousel impact recruiting?
We typically see job changes in November, but because the season is still ongoing, we are now seeing coaches getting fired only days before the early signing period.
After Arizona fired coach Kevin Sumlin over the weekend, the Wildcats lost commitments from wide receiver Tyrese Johnson and defensive lineman Tommy Bouda, as well as Kyion Grayes, a Class of 2022 wide receiver.
Four-star linebacker Trevin Wallace was likely going to sign with Auburn early, but after the Tigers fired coach Gus Malzahn, Wallace said he is not going to sign nor announce this week.
Auburn had momentum in Lewis' recruitment after the five-star linebacker decommitted from Tennessee. However, Lewis omitted Auburn from his top two schools after Malzahn's firing.
ESPN 300 defensive lineman Marquis Robinson is staying committed to Auburn, but said his mother is worried the defensive coaches won't be retained with the new coach. ESPN 300 safety Ahmari Harvey, who committed to Auburn in August, initially said he wasn't sure what he would do and that he would likely entertain other schools before the early signing period, but then said he does believe he will still sign early with Auburn.
How have COVID-19 restrictions impacted recruiting?
Part of why prospects might wait is because the NCAA enacted a dead period in March because of COVID-19. The NCAA has since extended that through April 15.
Recruits haven't been able to take unofficial or official visits the entire season and never got to go to college camps to earn scholarships. That is part of the uncertainty from some prospects and it also has made it difficult for coaches to navigate the process.
Ohio State defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs said he likes to evaluate recruits in person and see them in their school environment.
"When I go to a school I talk to the janitor and the lady who serves lunch in the cafeteria, not necessarily the football coach," Coombs said. "I want to know what this kid is like when it's not football and nothing's around and all that kind of stuff. That's hard to do, right? You can't Zoom the janitor. So that part of it, that part of the experience and a full evaluation of what kind of people they are beyond just what you see on film has been made incredibly difficult."
That inability to have in-person communication has made it difficult to build relationships. The dead period likely impacts recruiting in the 2022 and 2023 classes, as those prospects have not had much of a chance to be evaluated.
Those recruits typically get ahead in their recruitment and take visits, work out at college camps and have coaches come to their high schools to evaluate them. None of that has happened, so they are behind in the process.
The other area that will be impacted is future scholarship numbers. The NCAA granted all players an extra year of eligibility if they want to take it. Because of that new rule, teams are allowed to go over the 85 total scholarship limit by however many seniors are on the roster right now.
The problem is that schools will still have to pay for those scholarships over the 85, which are expensive, and many schools are already struggling financially. To account for more scholarship money than what they have budgeted could prove tricky for some programs.
"Food, transportation, hotel rooms, there are so many extra expenses that goes into college athletics. We're spending hundreds of thousands of dollars," an anonymous director of player personnel said. "There are extra consequences for the university and they're going to have to figure it out or else you're going to have to say to the 2022 recruits, 'I'm rooting for you, but we can't take as many players.'"
The rule allows programs to go over the limit for this next season, but there are currently no rules beyond that, which also is concerning for coaches. As every player on the roster has an extra year of eligibility, juniors could stay up to three more years.
That makes it difficult for coaches to know just how many commitments they'll be able to take in the 2022 class and has some thinking about whether they should start counting numbers in 2021.
"We jumped out early in the class and now we're trying to figure out if each extra person we take in 2021 is one less we can take in 2022," the personnel director said. "The NCAA has to do something because you're putting the burden on the athletic departments that are already taking a hit. 'Insert school here' gets kids to commit and they have no idea if they're going to have room for them.
"Then what you run into three to four years, you'll have huge freshman classes, then you're going to have gaping holes where you exhaust eligibility on 30 kids and we can only sign 25."
Who has lost commitments and who could lose more?
There are always flips and decommitments as signing day nears and this year has been no different.
On Saturday, while LSU was playing against Florida, ESPN 300 cornerback Nathaniel Wiggins flipped his commitment from LSU to Clemson. He's the No. 225-ranked recruit overall and gives Clemson 16 ESPN 300 commitments, which is only one fewer than Alabama and Ohio State.
Tennessee has now lost five commitments in the past few weeks, the highest-ranked coming from Lewis. McGhee, a defensive back ranked No. 286 overall, also decommitted, as well as three-star safety Jay Jones. Four-star tight end Hudson Wolfe decommitted and then committed to Ole Miss, while defensive lineman Darrell Jackson flipped his commitment to Maryland.
Florida State saw a decommitment from ESPN 300 wide receiver Malik McClain, the No. 262 prospect overall, and four-star athlete Devin Kirkwood decommitted from UCLA.
While ESPN 300 quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Michigan's highest-rated commit in the class, reaffirmed his pledge, the Wolverines could see some loss in the class, in part because of the uncertainty when it comes to the school and Jim Harbaugh's contract extension discussions.
In addition to the aforementioned Xavier Worthy, ESPN 300 linebacker Branden Jennings has had other programs enter the picture, and if he does wait, that could open the door for other teams to come in and try to recruit Hood in January to steal him away. ESPN 300 linebacker Jaydon Hood, who has been committed since May, told ESPN he will not sign in December.
It doesn't look like it will all be negative for Michigan, though, as the majority of the class plans to stick together. Four Wolverines commitments have told ESPN they have had conversations with the coaching staff about Harbaugh's future and are comfortable with where things stand. If Michigan comes out of the early signing period ahead of, or in the same spot they're in now, it's a win for the staff.