The good news is that I'm no longer dreading this.
After years of making horrendous bowl predictions for the college football world to mock, I'm starting to figure things out. I followed a 23-17 mark in 2018 with a 32-9 ledger last season. While there were some huge misses, such as Utah over Texas (Texas won 38-10), I hit on some tricky matchups and came close with several scores. I now have an extremely small but loyal group of followers who are awaiting these predictions after making some money off them in 2019. Talk about the holiday spirit.
I'm not getting cocky about my instant bowl forecasting skills, especially entering a slate filled with more unknowns than normal. The bowl season was supposed to start Saturday, but after the cancellation of the Frisco Bowl, it kicks off Monday with the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Usually there are two weeks between my predictions and the games. This year, rosters and coaching staffs are fluid, opt-outs will continue, and COVID-19 can impact every roster every day before the game.
There are also fewer bowls, culminating Jan. 11 with the College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T. That's the backdrop for this set of bowl predictions -- straight up, not against the spread.
Ready, set, bowl!
All times Eastern. Predictions in chronological order.
Dec. 21
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Appalachian State vs. North Texas
(2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Brooks Stadium in Conway, South Carolina)
Appalachian State fell short of its typical standard, as Coastal Carolina and Louisiana claimed the Sun Belt spotlight this year. But the Mountaineers are still a very solid team, led by veteran quarterback Zac Thomas, a bevy of ball carriers and a defense that held all but one opponent to 26 or fewer points. North Texas simply doesn't have enough to keep pace. Thomas and young running backs Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel all have big performances in an easy win.
Prediction: Appalachian State 42, North Texas 23
Final score: Appalachian State 56, North Texas 28
Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Tulane vs. Nevada
(3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho)
This matchup features two of the more underappreciated FBS coaches in veterans Willie Fritz (Tulane) and Jay Norvell (Nevada). Tulane is 6-5 but dropped three games by six or fewer points and won four of its final five contests. The future is bright with freshman quarterback Michael Pratt, who threw 18 touchdowns and five interceptions. Nevada counters with its own quarterback, Carson Strong, the Mountain West offensive player of the year, who tosses two touchdowns in this one. But my faith in Tulane paid off last year, and I'm not veering from the Green Wave.
Prediction: Tulane 31, Nevada 27
Final score: Nevada 38, Tulane 27
2020 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl: UCF vs. No. 16 BYU
(7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida)
This should be one of the nation's best bowl matchups, especially at quarterback, as BYU's Zach Wilson and UCF's Dillon Gabriel have combined for 6,620 passing yards and 60 touchdowns (each has 30). The location favors UCF, especially after BYU's ill-fated cross-country trip to Coastal Carolina earlier this month. But BYU has the edge on defense, with star linebacker Isaiah Kaufusi and others. The Cougars get a few more stops than the Knights to finish the season 11-1.
Prediction: BYU 44, UCF 38
Final score: BYU 49, UCF 23
Dec. 23
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
(3 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
You simply don't pick against Skip Holtz in bowl games. The Louisiana Tech coach has won six straight bowl games with the Bulldogs and boasts an 8-3 overall mark in the postseason. Last year, Louisiana Tech shut out Miami in the Independence Bowl. This isn't one of Holtz's best squads, and the team has played just twice since October. But I'll stick with Louisiana Tech over a Georgia Southern team that has scored more than 27 points only three times.
Prediction: Louisiana Tech 27, Georgia Southern 21
Final score: Georgia Southern 38, Louisiana Tech 3
Montgomery Bowl: Memphis vs. Florida Atlantic
(7 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
I'm a bit concerned about Memphis' motivation level after a trying year that included several key opt-outs and a lot of close games. But the Tigers are the better team, and Brady White, the school's all-time leading passer, should finish his 52nd year as a college quarterback on a high note. Florida Atlantic averages just 20 points per game and struggles to stretch the field (5.83 yards per attempt). A solid Memphis secondary led by Quindell Johnson and Rodney Owens flusters the Owls in this one.
Prediction: Memphis 37, Florida Atlantic 21
Final score: Memphis 25, Florida Atlantic 10
Dec. 24
New Mexico Bowl: Hawai'i vs. Houston
(3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas)
No FBS team bore the brunt of the COVID-19 season like Houston, which had its entire September slate wiped out because of opponents' issues, as well as other games impacted along the way. Dana Holgorsen's team wants to end this strange season with a strong showing. Quarterback Clayton Tune throws two touchdown passes as Houston builds an early lead and holds off a Chevan Cordeiro-led comeback from Todd Graham's Hawai'i squad.
Prediction: Houston 36, Hawai'i 28
Final score: Hawai'i 28, Houston 14
Dec. 25
Camellia Bowl: Marshall vs. Buffalo
(2:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama)
One of the Group of 5's best offenses (Buffalo) takes on one of the best Group of 5 defenses (Marshall) in an intriguing bowl matchup. Will Bulls star running back Jaret Patterson (1,072 rushing yards, 19 touchdowns in only six games) find open lanes against a Marshall team that ranks second nationally in rushing defense (88.9 YPG allowed)? Ultimately, Buffalo will score enough behind Patterson and quarterback Kyle Vantrease to outlast a Marshall team that mustered only 13 points in its final two games.
Prediction: Buffalo 35, Marshall 21
Final score: Buffalo 17, Marshall 10
Dec. 26
FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl: Liberty vs. No. 12 Coastal Carolina
(Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Most of us wanted to see undefeated Coastal Carolina face a Power 5 opponent in a bowl, but a matchup with once-scheduled Liberty -- the teams' Dec. 5 game was canceled, setting up Coastal's epic win over BYU -- certainly brings appeal. The game features two of the better Group of 5 quarterbacks in Liberty's Malik Willis (2,040 passing yards, 20 touchdowns) and Coastal Carolina's Grayson McCall (2,170 yards, 23 touchdowns), and both defenses are solid, too. But there's no way that Jamey Chadwell's Fightin' Mullets are ending the season with a loss. McCall throws a late touchdown to push the Chanticleers to 12-0.
Prediction: Coastal Carolina 31, Liberty 27
Final score: Liberty 37, Coastal Carolina 34 (OT)
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: No. 19 Louisiana vs. UTSA
(3:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas)
Louisiana coach Billy Napier hoped for a bowl rematch with Coastal Carolina after the Sun Belt championship game was canceled. He and his team must settle for UTSA, which reaches its first bowl since 2016 and just the second in team history. Roadrunners running back Sincere McCormick (1,345 rush yards, 11 touchdowns) is a fun player to watch and will do some damage in this one, but Louisiana is the more complete and talented team. It'll be too much Levi Lewis, Bralen Trahan and the Ragin' Cajuns.
Prediction: Louisiana 38, UTSA 17
Final score: Louisiana 31, UTSA 24
LendingTree Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
(3:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Ladd-Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama)
Both teams have five wins, but that's where the similarities end. Georgia State's offense surged down the stretch, and if quarterback Cornelious Brown IV avoids turnovers, the Panthers should win easily. Western Kentucky is overhauling its offensive staff after averaging 18.8 points. DeAngelo Malone and a solid Hilltoppers defense will keep this close for a while before Brown and his wide receivers extend the lead in the third quarter.
Prediction: Georgia State 37, Western Kentucky 24
Final score: Georgia State 39, Western Kentucky 21
Dec. 29
Cheez-It Bowl: No. 21 Oklahoma State vs. No. 18 Miami
(5:30 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Everyone's favorite pre-New Year's Day bowl pits two Top 25 teams that looked like league title contenders for much of the season before blowout losses late (Oklahoma State to Oklahoma, Miami to North Carolina). The bottom line here is that Mike Gundy's mullet will be sharing a stadium with an endless supply of Cheez-Its. And both teams have orange as an official color. Coincidence? I think not. Although Gundy is an offensive guru and Miami coach Manny Diaz has a background in defense, Oklahoma State's defense and Miami's offense will be the featured matchup. Although I love D'Eriq King, Miami's opt-outs on the defensive line and recent bowl history concern me against the Pokes and Gundy, who is 9-5 in bowls. Oklahoma State's veteran defense rises up.
Prediction: Oklahoma State 30, Miami 24
Final score: Oklahoma State 37, Miami 34
Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 20 Texas vs. Colorado
(9 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at the Alamodome in San Antonio)
My worst bowl pick last year was Utah over Texas, as the Longhorns thoroughly dominated the Alamo Bowl. Colorado isn't as good as Utah in 2019, but the Buffaloes will be extremely motivated after having three games canceled because of COVID-19 issues and Pac-12 ineptitude. Texas has had several key opt-outs, but quarterback Sam Ehlinger will be on the field for most likely his final game in burnt orange. Colorado's backfield of Sam Noyer and Jarek Broussard will stress an improved Texas defense. Although I'm a bit concerned about the Longhorns' motivation, it's hard to go against the more talented team under Tom Herman (4-0 in bowls) playing close to home, especially after last year's result.
Prediction: Texas 37, Colorado 27
Final score: Texas 55, Colorado 23
Dec. 30
Duke's Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Wisconsin
(Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina)
Both teams are .500, and neither has a true signature win, but Wisconsin's defense remains the best unit on the field. Jim Leonhard's crew ranks second nationally in efficiency and leads the nation in yards allowed, first downs allowed and third-down conversions against. The key is whether Wisconsin's offense, which has struggled lately, regains key pieces such as wide receivers Kendric Pryor and Danny Davis and running backs Jalen Berger and Nakia Watson. Top quarterback Graham Mertz also left Saturday's game because of an upper-body injury. I like Sam Hartman and Wake's big-play passing game, but a more talented Wisconsin team will finish strong.
Prediction: Wisconsin 33, Wake Forest 21
Final score: Wisconsin 42, Wake Forest 28
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 6 Oklahoma vs. No. 7 Florida
(8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
Florida has won consecutive New Year's Six bowls under Dan Mullen and pushed top-ranked Alabama like no other Tide opponent has in Saturday's SEC championship game. But I'm going with Oklahoma here, and the decision wasn't that hard. Florida's motivation is a major question, especially with star tight end Kyle Pitts opting out and others (Kadarius Toney?) potentially to follow. Oklahoma comes in with more momentum after winning its final seven games, including its sixth straight Big 12 title (at AT&T Stadium, no less). Florida's defense can't stop anyone, and Sooners quarterback Spencer Rattler, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and others will have big performances. Kyle Trask performs well for the Gators, but Oklahoma's much-improved defense will make the difference in this one.
Prediction: Oklahoma 47, Florida 40
Final score: Oklahoma 55, Florida 20
Dec. 31
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: No. 24 Tulsa vs. Mississippi State
(Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas)
The inclination is to go with Tulsa and its dynamic defense, led by linebacker Zaven Collins, a national defensive player of the year candidate (four interceptions, four sacks, 11.5 tackles for loss). But Mississippi State is incredibly unpredictable, upsetting Missouri on Saturday to bookend a bizarre regular season that began with a road upset of defending national champion LSU. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Arnett's unit is sneaky good, and Tulsa's offense doesn't wow anyone. This one could cost me, but I'm riding with Mike Leach and the 3-7 Bulldogs to score the upset.
Prediction: Mississippi State 28, Tulsa 25
Final: Mississippi State 28, Tulsa 26
Offerpad Arizona Bowl: Ball State vs. No. 22 San José State
(2 p.m. on CBSSN at Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona)
The intrigue here could be San Jose State coach Brent Brennan, a prime candidate for the vacancy at ... Arizona. Could Brennan be sticking around Tucson after the game? He has led one of the great stories in college football this season. The Spartans were twice displaced from their campus but still ran the table to win their first Mountain West title and post their best record (7-0) since 1939. Ball State is also a surprise conference champion, and quarterback Drew Plitt (1,947 passing yards, 16 touchdowns in only seven games) will stress SJSU's talented defense. But the Spartans are more balanced, with stars on both sides of the ball -- defensive end Cade Hall, quarterback Nick Starkel, wide receiver Bailey Gaither -- and will end the dream season with a victory.
Prediction: San Jose State 37, Ball State 23
Final score: Ball State 34, San Jose State 13
AutoZone Liberty Bowl: West Virginia vs. Army
(4 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee)
A deserving Army team will play in the postseason after all, which is great news. West Virginia gets the unenviable task of preparing for Army's offense on short notice. But the Mountaineers' defense took significant steps this fall, ranking fifth nationally in both yards allowed and first downs allowed, and allowing only 3.63 yards per rush. Army's defense is also formidable, boasting 13 interceptions and seven forced fumbles behind linebackers Jon Rhattigan and Arik Smith. But WVU will make more stops and create just enough offense with Leddie Brown (945 rush yards, nine touchdowns) to win a low-scoring ballgame.
Prediction: West Virginia 23, Army 20
Final score: West Virginia 24, Army 21
Jan. 1
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Georgia
(Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Cincinnati deserved better. Not only did the CFP selection committee disrespect the undefeated AAC champions by placing them No. 8 in the final rankings (behind three-loss Florida), but also the Bearcats now must play a virtual road game against a Georgia team that hit its stride offensively down the stretch behind quarterback JT Daniels, the USC transfer. Cincinnati's defense should be up for the challenge, as Jarell White, Coby Bryant and Ahmad Gardner led a unit that has 15 interceptions this season. Opt-outs for Georgia will be big, as the Bulldogs have had several key players do so, with others likely to follow. Daniels will fire two early touchdown passes, and Georgia will hold off a Desmond Ridder rally late.
Prediction: Georgia 28, Cincinnati 24
Final score: Georgia 24, Cincinnati 21
Vrbo Citrus Bowl: Auburn vs. No. 14 Northwestern
(1 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Auburn will have a new head coach by kickoff, and it could be defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, who will oversee the Tigers in the bowl game. But overall motivation for Auburn could be an issue after a disappointing season and a coaching change. Northwestern, meanwhile, is anxious to bounce back after missing opportunities to shock Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. An inconsistent Auburn pass attack shouldn't concern Northwestern, which allows just 15.5 points per game and ranks sixth in interceptions per pass attempt. The Wildcats add two more picks and get just enough offense from quarterback Peyton Ramsey, running back Cam Porter and others. Northwestern sends defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz into retirement with his 400th win in coaching.
Prediction: Northwestern 23, Auburn 17
Final score: Northwestern 35, Auburn 19
College Football Playoff Semifinal at The Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
(4 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas)
After a 2018 CFP semifinal loss to Clemson, Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly insisted that his team was getting closer in showcase games such as these. A Nov. 7 win over Clemson helped validate Kelly's claim. But after watching Notre Dame crumble against Trevor Lawrence in the ACC title game, it's hard to see how the Irish can keep up with Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris and the nation's best offensive line. Quarterback Ian Book and his group of receivers and especially tight ends must find ways to attack Alabama downfield like Florida and Ole Miss did. Notre Dame has the better overall defense and an offensive line that seemingly can match Alabama's, but it didn't look the part against Clemson. The Irish hang around for a half, but Alabama will pull away behind Smith, John Metchie III and the downfield passing game.
Prediction: Alabama 45, Notre Dame 20
Final score: Alabama 31, Notre Dame 14
College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Clemson vs. No. 3 Ohio State
(8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans)
No CFP contender that played Saturday impressed more than Clemson, which ACC coaches had described to me as very talented but also flawed and young at spots, especially along the line of scrimmage. Clemson showed that when healthy and energized, it can perform at an elite level on both sides of the ball. The Tigers might be peaking at the perfect time, while Ohio State is still dealing with COVID-19-related personnel shortages and a thumb injury to quarterback Justin Fields. Northwestern and Indiana showed how to fluster Fields, which Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables surely will emulate. Ohio State is hungry to avenge last year's narrow defeat to Clemson, but Lawrence will be able to attack the Buckeyes' secondary. Clemson rides a big fourth quarter to victory.
Prediction: Clemson 37, Ohio State 30
Final score: Ohio State 49, Clemson 28
Jan. 2
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: No. 23 NC State vs. Kentucky
(Noon on ESPN and the ESPN App at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida)
NC State put together one of the surprise stories of the college football season, doubling its win total (eight) from 2019. The Wolfpack overcame an injury to quarterback Devin Leary, made strides offensively behind first-year coordinator Tim Beck and found ways to win with defense against then-No. 21 Liberty, prevailing 15-14 to hand the Flames their lone loss. Kentucky is decent on defense and can run the ball, but an offense that ranks 107th nationally in scoring (21.7 PPG) is not going to get it done. Quarterback Bailey Hockman does enough to lift NC State to a win.
Prediction: NC State 27, Kentucky 17
Final score: Kentucky 23, NC State 21
Outback Bowl: Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Indiana
(12:30 p.m. on ABC and the ESPN App at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida)
Indiana got screwed in being left out of the New Year's Six and tumbling all the way to the Outback Bowl to face a .500 SEC opponent. Still, the matchup should be fun, as Ole Miss' dynamic offense under Lane Kiffin (40.7 points per game, 7.1 yards per play) goes against a talented Indiana defense (19.4 points per game allowed, 17 interceptions). After throwing five interceptions Saturday against LSU, Rebels quarterback Matt Corral faces Indiana defensive stalwarts Tiawan Mullen, Jamar Johnson and others. The Hoosiers' defense records three takeaways, and the run game comes alive against a woeful Ole Miss defense. A disrespected IU team plays like it to finish 7-1.
Prediction: Indiana 38, Ole Miss 30
Final score: Ole Miss 26, Indiana 20
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl: No. 25 Oregon vs. No. 10 Iowa State
(4 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona)
Yawn. Nothing against these teams -- I like both squads quite a bit -- but a two-loss Pac-12 champion against a three-loss Big 12 runner-up just doesn't feel right in a New Year's Six game. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy returns to his home state (Gilbert, Arizona) after a frustrating performance (three interceptions) against Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game. He faces another Arizona native at quarterback in Tyler Shough (Chandler) and a reenergized Oregon defense that delivered one of its better performances against USC in the Pac-12 championship. This feels like a last hurrah for a veteran-laden Iowa State defense, but Oregon has more high-end talent and seems to be spring-boarding nicely toward 2021. This is a tough one to pick, but I'm going with the Ducks in a mini upset.
Prediction: Oregon 30, Iowa State 28
Final score: Iowa State 34, Oregon 17
Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 5 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 North Carolina
(8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida)
North Carolina undoubtedly is the happier team here, as No. 5 Texas A&M hoped for its first CFP appearance and finished just outside the top four. Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher is 7-2 in bowls, though, and should have his team motivated to make a statement and likely finish in the final top four of the polls. Sam Howell leads a dynamic and diverse North Carolina offense (43 points per game, 7.8 yards per play) against a Texas A&M defense playing about as well as any squad in the country. Notre Dame's smothering of UNC's offense should provide a blueprint for Aggies coordinator Mike Elko, who came to Texas A&M from Notre Dame and mentored Irish defensive coordinator Clark Lea. Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond ends a record-setting career with a flourish against a vulnerable Tar Heels defense.
Prediction: Texas A&M 37, North Carolina 28
Final score: Texas A&M 41, North Carolina 27
Jan. 11
College Football Playoff National Championship presented by AT&T: Alabama vs. Ohio State
(8 p.m. on ESPN and the ESPN App at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida)
Justin Fields' play is the potential game-changer here, as the Ohio State quarterback delivered a legacy performance against Clemson with 385 pass yards and six touchdowns. Fields' health also is a significant factor after he played through tremendous pain for most of the CFP semifinal. But Florida and Ole Miss showed that Alabama's defense can be vulnerable to elite passing. Both defenses are actually playing better entering the game, as Ohio State's defensive front gave Clemson all sorts of trouble in the second half. But I can't see the Buckeyes' secondary stopping DeVonta Smith, John Metchie III and the Mac Jones-led passing arsenal from the Tide. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian's impending departure won't be a distraction, and Alabama edges Ohio State in a highlight-filled game.
Prediction: Alabama 41, Ohio State 37
Final score: Alabama 52, Ohio State 24