A year ago, LSU was basking in the glow of its win at Alabama, the Tigers' first against the Crimson Tide since 2011.
Of all the steps LSU had taken under coach Ed Orgeron, none seemed more validating. Alabama had distanced itself from LSU since the teams met for a national championship in January 2012. After the win in Tuscaloosa, LSU was the definitive No. 1 team, propelled by star quarterback and Heisman Trophy front-runner Joe Burrow and the greatest offense in modern college football history. Nothing would stop the Tigers from winning it all.
Now, nothing seems the same at LSU. The Tigers are 3-5 after a 55-17 home loss against No. 1 Alabama this past Saturday, a game they entered as 28.5-point underdogs. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the 38-point defeat was the most lopsided home loss by a defending national champion in the AP poll era (since 1936) and third worst overall. Things don't get much easier for LSU, which travels to No. 6 Florida on Saturday, followed by a home game against Ole Miss in its Dec. 19 regular-season finale.
Barring a major turnaround, LSU is headed toward its first losing season since 1999.
"Has any team ever gone from the penthouse to the poorhouse quicker?" a Power 5 coach wondered.
There are also concerns off the field. A handful of women have accused the university of not taking enough action when they reported allegations of sexual assault and domestic violence involving football players and other students. Last month, USA Today reported that "officials in the university's athletic department and broader administration repeatedly have ignored complaints against abusers, denied victims' requests for protections and subjected them to further harm by known perpetrators." According to the report, records show at least nine football players have been reported to police for sexual misconduct and dating violence since Orgeron was hired to replace Les Miles four years ago.
On the field, LSU's fall has been swift but explainable, and even a bit expected. A number of factors have led to unprecedented roster turnover, by far the program's biggest problem. Assistant coach changes, a limited offseason and a series of distractions also have contributed to the poor play.
"There is no question the transition to new coaches, a new scheme and new players has probably taken its toll and contributed to the frustration," a Power 5 head coach said. "And then you throw in everything else they're dealing with as far as COVID-19, it probably hasn't been too much fun."
We spoke to coaches, LSU officials and NFL scouts about the Tigers' struggles to get a sense of what's wrong and how coach Ed Orgeron can fix things on the Bayou. ESPN's Tom VanHaaren also broke down LSU's past and future recruiting situation.
What coaches are saying
Everyone knew the LSU team that took the field at Tiger Stadium on Sept. 26 would be different from the one that appeared there 302 days earlier. On Nov. 30, 2019, Joe "Burreaux" led LSU to a 50-7 win against Texas A&M, breaking the SEC's single-season passing record. On Nov. 28 against the Aggies at Kyle Field, the Tigers had 267 yards of offense, three turnovers and 11 penalties in a 20-7 loss.
"Burrow was the catalyst for everything," a Power 5 coach said. "They caught lightning in a bottle last year. Everything went perfectly."
This season, everything that could have gone wrong has for the Tigers, especially on defense.
In its opener against Mississippi State, LSU's revamped defense under first-year coordinator Bo Pelini looked completely lost against Mike Leach's Air Raid offense, which averaged more than a first down (10.4 yards) per pass attempt. Despite losing All-America cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. to an illness the night before the game, the Tigers remained in man coverage as MSU quarterback K.J. Costello amassed 623 yards.
"They just never switched it up," an SEC assistant coach who watched the game said. "Sometimes if you don't have the amount of time [to prepare], you just play man because it's simpler scheme-wise, or [Pelini] was like, 'Hey, we can lock these guys up and see what happens.' But they didn't get out of it."
SEC teams have quickly adjusted to Mississippi State, which is 1-6 since that opener, including a shutout loss against Alabama and posting no offensive points versus Kentucky. Outside of a 41-7 win against winless Vanderbilt, a 27-24 victory over Arkansas and the inspired effort against the Aggies, LSU's defense has struggled. The Tigers are giving up 313.1 passing yards per game, which ranks last in the SEC and 124th in the FBS.
"I don't think they're as good as advertised up front," a Power 5 coach said. "Their linebackers are just OK. They're a quarters defense. If you're going to play the way [Pelini] does it, your two inside [defensive backs] have got to be dudes. I don't see that part of it yet. They stink in their coverages, too."
WOW.
— Brian Holland (@BHollandSports) December 6, 2020
Coach O PISSED after Devonta Smith's 2nd TD of the night
Great shot by @lefteyedaquano #LSU pic.twitter.com/XydoNnGtNm
The transition from previous coordinator Dave Aranda, who left in January to become Baylor's head coach, to Pelini has been rocky. Aranda had a strong run at LSU from 2016 to 2019, becoming the nation's highest-paid assistant ($2.5 million). But Pelini seemed more in line with Orgeron, both in scheme and personality.
Orgeron, a defensive line coach most of his career, preferred a four-down front and more direct approach than Aranda, whose system was based around disguised pressure and preventing busts. Orgeron liked what he saw in preseason practice, telling reporters Sept. 15, "We are so much better on defense right now than any part of the season last year."
LSU wasn't an elite defense in 2019 -- 32nd in points allowed, 30th in yards per play allowed, 57th in sacks per pass attempts -- but looked better than the current unit has at any point this season.
"Bo and Ed have very strong personalities," one Power 5 coach said. "When things don't go well, they're oil and water. I can promise you those defensive staff meetings haven't been fun."
The player personnel is dramatically different on defense. Stingley and safety JaCoby Stevens are the only current returning starters from the national championship team. Stevens is the only defender who started the title game and has played in the Tigers' first eight games this fall.
LSU doesn't have the record-setting offense from 2019 but has averaged 42 points, 485.8 yards and 14.3 yards per completion through its first four games before an abdominal injury to starter Myles Brennan forced the Tigers to play two freshman quarterbacks in a 48-11 loss to Auburn on Oct. 31. Freshman TJ Finley had 271 passing yards with two touchdowns against Arkansas. He completed only 9 of 25 passes for 118 yards with two picks against Texas A&M, and then had 144 yards with one score against Alabama.
The inexperience at quarterback has allowed opponents to load the box. LSU ranks next-to-last in the SEC in rushing with only 110 yards per game. Only Mississippi State, which has 142 fewer rushing attempts, ranks worse.
"I put it on myself always," Orgeron said earlier this season. "We have to play better defense. For the most part, we've played good offense except against Auburn. But we haven't played good defense most of the year."
'It's a complete redo'
Everyone knew LSU would be a dramatically different team this season. The bigger problem is LSU also has become a dramatically different team than the one that opened preseason practice Aug. 17 in Baton Rouge.
"They earned the right to be ranked, they won the national championship," a Power 5 coordinator said, "but when you lose however many starters, 18 starters, it's hard to replace."
The Tigers had nine underclassmen enter the 2020 draft, three more than Alabama, which had the second-highest total of departures.
LSU also lost Burrow, the Heisman Trophy winner and other valuable seniors -- cornerback Kristian Fulton, defensive linemen Rashard Lawrence and Breiden Fehoko, guard Damien Lewis -- as well as Aranda and offensive architect Joe Brady.
"You can't minimize losing both coordinators and all that talent," a Power 5 coach said. "Crap, that's a complete redo."
Still, LSU earned a No. 6 ranking in the AP preseason poll. The Tigers entered camp with wide receiver JaMarr Chase, the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner, as well as returning defensive starters in tackle Tyler Shelvin and nickelback Kary Vincent. By early September, all three had opted out. Receiver Terrace Marshall Jr., the team's top pass catcher with 48 receptions for 731 yards with 10 touchdowns, opted out last month. Transfers like linebacker Marcel Brooks (TCU), defensive back Eric Monroe (Texas Tech) and tight end Jamal Pettigrew (McNeese State) already had thinned the depth.
LSU also self-imposed a reduction of eight scholarships over two years because of NCAA violations under previous coach Les Miles. The violations were related to an LSU booster embezzling money from a children's hospital foundation and facilitating it to families of current and former student-athletes. A Level III violation resulted from Cleveland Browns receiver and former LSU star Odell Beckham Jr., giving $2,000 in cash to four Tigers football players on the field after the team's 42-25 victory against Clemson in the CFP National Championship game on Jan. 13.
The season has featured a slew of starters missing games for various reasons, a list including Brennan, defensive tackle Glen Logan, offensive linemen Dare Rosenthal and Ed Ingram.
Of the 58 players LSU used in the Auburn loss, 20 were not part of the program in 2019, including freshman quarterbacks Finley and Max Johnson.
"I think it's just a total exodus of good players and they're inexperienced," one Power 5 head coach said. "I don't think they bridged very well, but some of the guys who left were second- and third-year guys. They had some guys opt out, too. I don't think they've replaced them with the same caliber of players. They're just not as talented."
Highly regarded freshman tight end Arik Gilbert is the latest player to opt out as of Wednesday. Published reports suggested he might enter the NCAA transfer portal, however, Orgeron said he hopes Gilbert will return and play next season.
The team has faced much more adversity this fall, and struggled to adjust. Stingley's hospitalization the night before the opener not only jarred his teammates, but forced Darren Evans, a transfer from Nicholls State who joined LSU only on Sept. 8, into the starting lineup.
Following a stress-free win against Vanderbilt, LSU had its Oct. 10 game against Missouri relocated from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of Hurricane Delta. LSU's roster is heavy with in-state players, and the active storm pattern in the region this year added to their anxiety. The injury to Brennan, who isn't Burrow but had put up solid numbers -- 1,112 pass yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions -- presented another obstacle, especially against Auburn.
Even a relatively quiet open week ended with wide receiver Koy Moore saying that Baton Rouge Police drew guns and repeatedly "violated" him during an incident on Nov. 7. Last month's USA Today report on alleged domestic violence and sexual assault allegations against multiple LSU players also raised concerns about the program's culture.
"They got every break in the world last year," a source said. "It's kind of the zero-sum theory."
The impact on recruiting
Evaluating recruits is hard enough, but teams handicap themselves when recruits they sign are no longer around. And while talent is never lacking in Baton Rouge, the current roster and makeup of the defensive side is drastically different than what it could be based on the numbers and what those recruiting classes looked like on signing day.
And figuring out exactly what's wrong with LSU requires a deeper look at what has happened once those prospects hit campus.
LSU has signed an ESPN top-7 class or higher every year from 2017 to 2021 except for 2018, when it had the No. 14 class. LSU had the No. 4 overall class in 2020, and the 2021 class also sits at No. 4 in ESPN's rankings.
The program signed 52 ESPN 300 recruits from 2017 to 2020, and has had some big recruiting wins along the way. Sure, there have been some losses, including former five-star defensive back Patrick Surtain II, defensive tackle Ishmael Sopsher, wide receiver Jermaine Burton, and others, but LSU has had talent in its classes.
"The thing about LSU is that you can flip it quick," a Power 5 head coach said. "You can recruit and sign some top-line players. They're going to come in there and make an impact for you. That makes it so much easier to rebuild than some other places."
The defense has been a major concern this season. Looking at the recruiting numbers, LSU seemingly has done a good job bringing in top prospects. The team signed 17 ESPN 300 recruits on defense from 2017 to 2019, which are the classes expected to be contributing to the team at this point.
Of the 17 defensive ESPN 300 commitments in those three classes, 10 are no longer on the team by way of the NFL, opt-outs, transfers or dismissal. LSU also signed 30 total defensive recruits in three classes from 2017 to 2019, and 14 of those recruits are no longer on the team. It is a significant number of departures for a team trying to compete for championships each year, showing some of its limitations on defense. LSU's defense is known for star power, but the stats of this season's contributors are surprising.
Of the top 15 tacklers on the team, eight were ranked as three-stars or lower as recruits. Stevens is the only tackler in LSU's top five who earned an ESPN 300 rating as a recruit. LSU's defensive backs have been productive, with play from Stingley, a former five-star, and top-50 prospect Eli Ricks, seen as positive developments.
LSU also signed 11 total defensive linemen from 2017 to 2019. Of those 11 prospects, one is in the NFL, one has opted out, four are no longer on the team and three have one or fewer tackles. The Tigers are getting good production from only two of those line recruits, a concern given Orgeron's emphasis on the defensive front.
The team is also thin at linebacker, as five of the nine linebacker recruits signed between 2017 and 2019 are no longer with the program.
LSU's 2021 recruiting class is ranked No. 4 in the FBS by ESPN Recruiting ahead of this month's early signing period. Among the Tigers' 20 commitments are No. 1 safety Derrick Davis Jr. (Monroeville, Pennsylvania) and No. 6 outside linebacker Raesjon Davis (Santa Ana, California).
"I think it helps recruiting. Recruiting has been fine," Orgeron said after the Alabama loss. "Our guys have stuck with us, the commits have stuck with us. I think we're in good shape. I'm not going to say it helps recruiting. You don't ever want to lose like that, but when guys see that [they say], 'Hey, I can come in and play. There are some opportunities for me.' We have a lot of young guys, a lot of freshmen are playing right now. I think that's the way you take it."
Can Orgeron fix the problems?
Orgeron wasn't LSU's first choice to replace Miles, but he turned out to be the right coach to lead the Tigers to their first national title since 2007. The Louisiana native fixed a perennially underperforming offense. He's 12-4 against AP top-10 teams at LSU. Recruiting is strong despite the poor season.
The key is how quickly Orgeron can get LSU back on track, and what must be done in the short term. Orgeron said after the Auburn loss that no staff changes would be made until after the season. Pelini is signed through 2022 at $2.3 million annually, so a dismissal would be financially damaging, especially during a pandemic.
"If it doesn't get better, there's going to have to be some sort of a change," an industry source said. "It can't be a situation where nothing is done. You've got to do something."
For the most part, Orgeron has been noncommittal about Pelini's future and any other changes to his staff.
"I promised we're going to wait until the end of the season and then we're going to sit down and go through everything," he said Saturday night.
The roster and scholarship situation is a focal point, and could improve quickly. LSU won't lose as many underclassmen to the NFL draft. The blanket waiver for football players, who won't have 2020 count against their eligibility because of the pandemic, could result in some key players returning in 2021. LSU certainly would benefit from having players like offensive linemen Austin Deculus and Liam Shanahan for another year. The Tigers' national title team had several players, such as Fulton and Lawrence, turn down the NFL for another year in college, which isn't the norm at LSU.
"We're going to be a championship team," Orgeron said earlier this season. "We're going through some growing pains right now, I know it. ... We have a plan here. The people surrounding me are very supportive. We just had one of the best teams in college football last year. We're not that far away. We've got to get better coaches, we've got to get better players.
"This is LSU, and we're going to do that."