The despair being felt at Texas, Michigan and Nebraska is different in some ways, but aligned in others.
Texas and Michigan both are facing decisions on their coaches after seasons that fell short of expectations (in Michigan's case, well short). Michigan and Nebraska are coached by decorated former quarterbacks deemed as home-run hires when they arrived. Both programs have cycled through several coaches since they last competed at a national level. The struggles of Jim Harbaugh and Scott Frost raise the question: If they can't get it right at Michigan and Nebraska, who can?
All three programs have one thing in common: They all made can't-miss coaching hires that are, at least for the moment, missing.
While Michigan (2-4) and Nebraska (1-4) are headed for losing records -- Michigan's first since Brady Hoke's final year in 2014, Nebraska's fourth straight and third under Frost -- Texas hopes to salvage a 7-3 ledger by beating Kansas State this week and winless Kansas on Dec. 12. Texas has had single-digit losses to No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 9 Iowa State and TCU, but the Longhorns don't resemble a College Football Playoff contender.
Nebraska and Michigan, which shared a national title 23 years ago, seem even farther away.
Here's a deeper look at the issues at Texas, especially Herman's future and the feasibility and reality of moving on from him, as well as the latest at both Michigan and Nebraska.
Texas
Of all the things said out loud and whispered about Texas, quarterback Sam Ehlinger's comment after the Iowa State loss resonates the most. You've probably read it already, but it's worth repeating.
Asked if Texas' underachievement stems from coaching, Ehlinger said, "It's never fully on the coaching staff. That's the million-dollar question that everyone's been trying to figure out for the last 10 years."
Ehlinger, a lifelong Texas fan who became QB1 for his favorite team, understands the program's recent history better than most. Texas' problems go beyond the head coach's office. Although coaches should never be absolved -- they earn far too much money not to take the brunt of the blame -- Texas perhaps needs to look more at the "why" more than the "who" when assessing its next steps.
When I talk with coaches who face Texas, coaches who have worked at Texas and those familiar with the program, the same terms are used: Entitlement. Country club. Long on talent, short on grit. As someone told me recently, "It's the softest group of kids you've ever been around. There's no work ethic."
Herman looked like the coach who would toughen up Texas. His Houston teams played with an edge, as overlooked recruits like quarterback Greg Ward Jr. propelled UH to a two-year mark of 23-4. Herman also had come up under Urban Meyer, and worked at some of the more challenging FBS programs, such as Iowa State and Rice. He also understood the inner workings at Texas from his time as a graduate assistant under Mack Brown.
But Herman hasn't achieved the right mix of talent and intangibles to compete at the national level. Does he deserve another year to get it right? Herman overhauled the staff after 2019, and his new assistants are the types who enforce the mentality Texas seemingly needs. The Longhorns are improving on defense, tackling better and making more plays, but they're still making critical mistakes and falling short.
"The standard should be ... to be in the conversation and to be competing for conference championships in the month of November and December," Herman said Monday. "We were there this year. We were there two years ago, and this year we came up three points short in our opportunity to advance to play another game. You know, inching our way toward that."
Herman's future is much more than a million-dollar question. I'm told a complete coaching transition -- paying out Herman and his current staff, hiring a new head coach and staff -- would cost Texas $23 million-$30 million, a hefty sum even without a pandemic. As one source said, "How brazen are you?
"Even if it's a crazy amount of money, they've got it," another industry source said. "One thing in this pandemic is billionaires have made even more money."
Texas can swing big and, if it fires Herman, would swing for the best available coach, Meyer, who is currently in his second season as a Fox studio analyst. But Meyer not only is at the top of Texas' wish list. He's among a select group of coaches -- Alabama's Nick Saban, Clemson's Dabo Swinney are two others -- who bring an instant credibility and demanding approach to get Texas to reach its potential.
Despite some recent decommitments, including top 2022 quarterback Quinn Ewers, Herman has thrived in recruiting. So would Meyer, who has won big everywhere he's been.
"They can't make the move unless it's Urban," a Group of 5 athletic director said.
The big issue for Texas is what if it swings and misses? Meyer, 56, isn't a sure thing to return to the sideline. Health issues contributed to his departure from Ohio State, and he's an excellent analyst who enjoys his role at Fox. Most coaches ultimately can't stay away, but Meyer can choose to be extremely selective about his next job.
"Who's the home run at Texas if it's not Urban?" an industry source said. "If you could lock up Urban ahead of time, no-brainer. [Other candidates] would be leveraging it for raises."
Or they could set up for failure, as another person said.
Texas is one of the nation's best coaching jobs. But the Meyer factor could discourage other candidates, mindful they wouldn't receive the same reception. If Meyer says no, would anyone else please the Longhorns' base or even get a fair chance to elevate the program?
There are other good candidates for the job, including Iowa State's Matt Campbell, whose team ended Texas' title hopes last week. Campbell, an Ohioan from a coaching family with a blue-collar background in the profession, might be exactly what Texas needs. But would he want to leave ISU, an aligned program that completely suits his personality, for one that has some of the qualities -- political factions outside, entitlement inside -- that repel him?
After the Texas win, ISU running back Breece Hall said, "It's five-star culture vs. five-star players." Campbell would never say that on the record, but it's hard to believe Hall came up with that line immediately after beating Texas.
Who else could Texas chase? Oregon's Mario Cristobal is an elite recruiter with an offensive line background who has quickly elevated the Ducks to championship level again. He also has an $8 million buyout. Penn State's James Franklin could be looking for a new start, and he has a strong relationship with athletic director Chris Del Conte. PSU's poor season could make Franklin a tough sell, but probably not too hard given the unique circumstances of 2020. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables is a tough-minded coach with Big 12 ties, but he lacks experience leading a program.
"Texas could say, 'If we can't get Urban, we can't guarantee we can get someone better than Tom, so we might stick with him for another year,'" an industry source said. "I don't think [Del Conte has] got a lot of great options."
Another factor for candidates to consider: Texas is an incredibly complex university and athletic program. The top-down alignment that propels Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma and a handful of others simply hasn't been present in Austin. Del Conte is one of the best athletic directors, but he also has more obstacles to navigate.
Meyer carries enough clout to overcome or repair institutional mishigas. Few others do.
Michigan
After the Wolverines' fourth loss, to winless Penn State, Harbaugh is stressing development more than results. He has delivered a similar message much of the season with a young team, which is clearly the worst of his tenure and possibly headed for a last-place finish in the Big Ten East division.
"There's disdain for the process by some. To us, that's the whole ballgame," Harbaugh said Monday. "Outside of the program, people are very results-oriented. The process, to us, is very important."
Ultimately, Harbaugh's commitment to seeing this through, and Michigan's willingness to let him, will shape what happens with the program in 2021. Meanwhile, the remaining results could continue to be ugly. Michigan's game against Maryland this weekend was canceled because of a rise in COVID-19 cases within the Wolverines' program, and the team finishes the regular season Dec. 12 against Ohio State ... if that game even happens, which isn't guaranteed.
If the Buckeyes resume play this week against Michigan State, they need every style point possible to impress the CFP selection committee. Ohio State has beaten Michigan the past two years by a combined 53 points. Remember the summer spat between Harbaugh and Buckeyes coach Ryan Day, who talked to his team about hanging 100 on Michigan? The Game could get very ugly for the Maize and Blue.
How much will another unsightly loss to Ohio State -- it would be Michigan's ninth straight defeat in the series and its sixth straight under Harbaugh -- impact the big decisions? An outright firing of Harbaugh still seems unlikely, but so does any legitimate contract extension. Sources in and around Michigan have said Harbaugh will make the call here, but the past few games will matter.
Would Harbaugh be more or less inclined to walk away if the season ends with a thud? Several sources this week said he would be more inclined. NFL teams would still pursue him. Or, Harbaugh could return in 2021 for the final year of his contract, almost surely with a revamped defensive staff.
"It's kind of unprecedented to have a lame-duck year," an industry source said. "They're probably going to come to a mutual thing, if that's him saying, 'I'm going to take a year off, or go to the NFL.' It's not going to be them getting rid of him.'"
If Harbaugh isn't back, things will get interesting. As an industry source recently told me, "Michigan controls the carousel."
Iowa State's Campbell undoubtedly would be a top target. Michigan presents some of the same issues as Texas -- the entitlement issue has been around since the Rich Rodriguez era -- but Campbell knows the region well and could soon get Michigan more competitive in the Big Ten East division. Cincinnati's Luke Fickell is the ultimate Buckeye and might balk at the thought of wearing the Block M, but Michigan should still gauge his interest.
Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald already turned down Michigan once and seems highly unlikely to leave his home area. Michigan would be wise to gauge interest from Wake Forest's Dave Clawson, Boston College's Jeff Hafley and Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Although Michigan likely would want someone with previous head-coaching experience, Clemson's Venables and Wisconsin defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard are interesting options.
Nebraska
Unlike Texas or Michigan, Nebraska knows who its coach will be in 2021. Despite a 10-19 record, Frost retains plenty of support at his alma mater. "He's here with me as long as I'm here," Moos told The Athletic this week. "He's just what I want and what Nebraska's needed." The growing concern is whether one of Nebraska's favorite sons can ever get his team to resemble the ones he played for in the mid-1990s. And, if he can't, can anyone?
Nebraska's storied past came up yet again this week, specifically a need for more leadership and accountability. The Huskers had more talented teams when Frost played, but they also had a player-led culture where mistakes weren't tolerated. Sloppy play has doomed Nebraska throughout Frost's tenure. Nebraska has 55 turnovers since 2018, tied for 104th nationally. Penalties and other negative-yardage plays also have shortened drives or prolonged them for opponents.
"We can't continue the way we're going," Frost said Monday. "We did a study this week and our drives where we don't have a penalty, a bad snap or a turnover, we've scored on over 90% of those drives. We've just had far too many."
Last week's clapping controversy against Iowa -- Nebraska claimed that clapping from the Iowa sideline caused multiple errant snaps by center Cam Jurgens -- didn't help the perception that Nebraska struggles with focus.
After trailing for the entire game, Breece Hall scores a crucial touchdown in the final minutes and the Longhorns miss a game-tying field goal to secure the Cyclones' 23-20 win in Austin.
"When Nebraska's complaining about clapping on the sideline, there's probably major issues," a Power 5 assistant said.
The Huskers have two main problems: They no longer walk on the field 14 to 21 points better than their opponents, and several of their opponents, especially in the Big Ten West, exhibit the consistency and discipline they have struggled to implement.
Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern don't make the same mistakes as Nebraska. Those teams know they're not talented enough to overcome errors. Nebraska isn't going to win national championships in this environment, but winning the Big Ten West more than once a decade isn't unreasonable.
"It's a different era," Frost said Monday. "Kids are a little different these days, but there's no way you can't motivate them to be modeled after something that obviously worked for a long time."
He later added, "The culture piece, it's gotten better and better and better, but it's still got to come from the locker room a little bit. We're trying to train that."
On Monday, quarterback Adrian Martinez provided insight on the challenges of motivating players in 2020, noting how it has changed from the mid-1990s when Jason Peter, Grant Wistrom and others ruled the locker room.
"Generally with my generation, guys tend not to like to be yelled at, especially in group settings," Martinez said. "Little things like that, you have to know in my position as a captain. ... It's tricky, it really is tricky. With what we stand for here at Nebraska, some of that old-school tough love, there definitely is a place for that."
Evolving the locker room is part of Frost's mission to modernize Nebraska. But there's more. While many (including me) applauded Frost for bringing his entire staff with him to Nebraska from UCF, the decision no longer looks sound. Frost replaced offensive coordinator Troy Walters after last season, and, as I wrote Monday, will likely need to make further changes.
"It's Nebraska, they threw a bunch of money at you -- you build the best staff you can," an industry source said. "Showing loyalty to everybody who helped you at UCF, I don't know if that was the right move. I think he makes wholesale staff changes."
Nebraska could reach a pivot point with Frost in Year 4. At minimum, he needs to deliver a winning season. Nebraska doesn't play in the most talented division in college football, but it plays in one where the best teams know who they are and have consistent leadership and performance.
Until Nebraska can become more like them, it will continue to struggle.