The College Football Playoff selection committee revealed its second of five rankings on Tuesday, and while the top seven teams remained the same, there are scenarios that could derail the status quo before Selection Day on Dec. 20.
There's no bigger X factor right now than No. 4 Ohio State.
In fact, Ohio State's spot at No. 4 this week was a question.
Selection committee chair Gary Barta told ESPN's Rece Davis that it was "specifically talked about in the room about whether or not Ohio State goes to four, or Texas A&M flips and goes to four and Ohio State goes to five. A lot of discussion about that."
The Buckeyes resumed team activities Tuesday and are preparing to play Saturday at Michigan State, but the status of the game remains uncertain as Ohio State monitors a COVID-19 outbreak within its program. If Ohio State has a third game canceled this season, the Buckeyes won't meet the six-game benchmark to qualify for the Big Ten title game.
If that happens, it's still possible for Ohio State to finish 6-0 because it can beat rival Michigan in its regular-season finale and add another win to its résumé the weekend of Dec. 18-19, when all Big Ten teams play one additional game.
OSU will be missing a critical piece of the equation, though: a conference title, which the committee uses as one of its tiebreakers when comparing similar teams. Would Ohio State own that fourth spot without winning the Big Ten?
It all depends on what happens in the ACC and SEC championship games -- and if Cincinnati can finish undefeated and win the American Athletic Conference.
If No. 3 Clemson beats No. 2 Notre Dame, which already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game, the committee would consider both teams. If No. 6 Florida beats No. 1 Alabama, the committee would also consider both SEC teams. Those two scenarios both occurring could spell trouble for the Buckeyes because Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State would be competing for the final two spots, without any winning a conference title.
Somebody would have to go.
The committee would then determine which team best compensates for the lack of a title. The decision would depend in part on how the games played out.
Eventually -- though it wasn't enough to impact the second rankings and might not be enough to change the third -- the number of games teams play will matter. Would the committee take a 6-0 Ohio State team that didn't win the Big Ten instead of a 10-1 Alabama or 9-1 Clemson? What about a 10-0 Cincinnati team that won the American Athletic Conference and beat a top-25 Tulsa team on the road?
Things might not be as easy as these second rankings make it seem.
There are, however, a few things that seem finalized.
BYU goes bust ... again
There was a collective gasp from college football fans, former players and analysts across the country when BYU was ranked No. 14 in the committee's initial rankings -- not within what is typically New Year's Six Bowl range. It seemed that there was an overwhelming outcry, even from those who aren't fans of the Cougars, that the committee ranked them too low.
This week? BYU moved up ... one spot.
It's another reminder that the selection committee isn't influenced by the court of public opinion. BYU's schedule is weighing it down.
Wait, does the Big 12 still have a shot?
At No. 9, Iowa State is the highest ranked Big 12 team, on track to face No. 11 Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. They're both two-loss teams that have shown remarkable improvement since the start of the season. But it's probably still too little, too late.
We saw Oklahoma sneak in last year after Utah lost in the Pac-12 championship game, so the Big 12 has gotten in almost by default before. This year? The conference is going to need even more chaos.
Although the Big 12 is still hanging on to a dream, the Pac-12 was smacked with reality Tuesday.
The Pac-12 is in the worst Power 5 position -- and behind the AAC
It has nothing to do with the November start or the truncated schedule and everything to do with the fact that the Pac-12 doesn't have an elite team this year. But it is owning the 20-25 range. At No. 20, USC is the league's highest ranked team. Following its loss to Oregon State, Oregon sank to No. 23, right behind No. 22 Washington.
If the Pac-12 produces an undefeated conference champion, the selection committee will consider it, but to call it a long shot would be an understatement, given what we're looking at in the second ranking.