Instead of winding down and heading into what would typically be conference championship weekend, college football is rolling right into another month of games.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its second of five rankings Tuesday night, and there shouldn't be too much of a shakeup, as the top seven teams all either won this past weekend or didn't play (Ohio State and Cincinnati).
That doesn't mean anyone should get comfortable (except maybe Alabama).
Multiple scenarios can still unfold between now and Selection Day on Dec. 20, as most teams have one or two regular-season games remaining, and there are makeup games along with the conference championships. The X factor is Ohio State, which is struggling with a COVID-19 outbreak within its program and might not be eligible for the Big Ten championship game.
According to the Big Ten, a team must play at least six games to participate in the conference title game. The Buckeyes are 4-0 with two games left on the schedule. If the average number of games played in the league drops to six or below, that benchmark will also be lower.
In September, the Big Ten revealed "a ninth game for all 14 teams during a newly created Big Ten Champions Week the weekend of December 19." So while Ohio State might miss its opportunity against Michigan State on Saturday, it will have another game on either Dec. 18 or 19 that will count toward its overall record.
The scenarios that follow which include Ohio State in the top four assume the Buckeyes either qualify for and win the Big Ten title or still finish 6-0 because of the additional opportunity during Champions Week, even without the conference title. Any scenario without Ohio State predicts the Buckeyes finish 5-0 with no title.
Here's a look at the most realistic possibilities still remaining, with the four teams grouped in no particular order:
*The Allstate Playoff Predictor is based on scenarios where currently scheduled games take place, and cannot take cancellations into account.
Status quo
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Ohio State
How we get there: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game to eliminate the Gators with their second loss. Clemson beats Notre Dame in the ACC championship game, and they both remain in the top four because their only loss is to each other, and Ohio State either wins the Big Ten championship or finishes at least 6-0.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: All four of these teams would have at least a 63% chance to finish in the top four under those scenarios. The ACC has a 25% chance to send multiple teams to the playoff, the best among the Power 5 conferences.
It just means more, Part I
Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Florida
How we get there: Florida beats Alabama in the SEC championship game, Notre Dame hands Clemson its second loss with a victory in the ACC championship game, and Ohio State either wins the Big Ten title or finishes at least 6-0. The Gators would be in with the SEC title, and Alabama would be an easy choice if it has been No. 1 all season and its only loss is to Florida.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Those four teams would each have at least a 77.4% chance to finish in the top four under those scenarios. The SEC has a 23% chance to send multiple teams to the playoff, second to only the ACC.
It just means more, Part II
Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas A&M
How we get there: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship, Notre Dame knocks Clemson out of the top four with a win in the ACC championship game, Ohio State either wins the Big Ten title or finishes at least 6-0, and the Aggies run the table with their only loss being to SEC champion Alabama. This scenario would hand SEC East champ Florida a second loss. Go ahead and bolster this possibility with a Cincinnati loss at Tulsa in their scheduled Dec. 12 meeting.
Playoff predictor says: In this particular scenario, Notre Dame (99.9%), Alabama (99.7%), Ohio State (97.3%) and ... Cincinnati (33.9%) would have the best chances to finish in the top four, with Texas A&M (32.2%) right behind the Bearcats. That Cincinnati loss at Tulsa? Has to happen.
Cincinnati crashes the party
Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Cincinnati
How we get there: Alabama knocks Florida out of the mix with a win over the Gators in the SEC title game, handing Florida a second loss. Notre Dame does the same to Clemson in the ACC championship game. The Buckeyes either win the Big Ten title or finish 6-0 without it, and Texas A&M loses at Auburn for its second loss. This assumes Cincinnati wins at Tulsa and finishes as an undefeated American Athletic Conference champion.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Those four teams would have at least a 69.6% chance of finishing in the top four under those exact scenarios. Cincinnati is the fourth team, at 69.6%, while the other three are at least 98%.
Two ACC and Cincinnati
Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Cincinnati
How we get there: In this scenario, Ohio State plays only five games and doesn't have a Big Ten title. Alabama would beat Florida to win the SEC and knock the Gators out with a second loss, and Clemson would beat Notre Dame to win the ACC. But because their only losses are to each other, they would both get in. Texas A&M would lose at Auburn, and Cincinnati would finish as undefeated AAC champion.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Ohio State would have an 80.4% chance to still be in, along with Alabama, Clemson and Notre Dame, while Cincinnati would be on the bubble at 50.2%. The machine doesn't factor in the value of a conference title as a tiebreaker, though, within the committee meeting room.
Two SEC and Cincinnati
Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Cincinnati
How we get there: Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC, Notre Dame eliminates Clemson in the ACC championship game, Ohio State finishes 5-0 with no Big Ten title, and the Aggies' lone loss of the season is to the SEC champion. Cincinnati would finish as undefeated AAC champ.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: It's still giving Ohio State credit for going 5-0 without a Big Ten title, but at Nos. 4 and 5 are Cincinnati (56.9%) and Texas A&M (31.2%).
BYU makes a push
Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, BYU
How we get there: A miracle. Alabama beats Florida to win the SEC, Notre Dame eliminates Clemson in the ACC title game, Ohio State wins the Big Ten or finishes 6-0 without a title. Texas A&M loses at Auburn, and Cincinnati loses at Tulsa. The problem here is that No. 14 BYU is behind two-loss Big 12 teams Oklahoma and Iowa State, so the committee would have to think the Cougars are better than the Big 12 champion.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Welcome to the club, BYU! Under this scenario, the computer has Alabama, Notre Dame and Ohio State all at a 100% chance to get in ... and the Cougars are No. 4 at 50.8%.
Two ACC AND two SEC teams
Florida, Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame
How we get there: Florida beats Alabama to win the SEC title AND Clemson beats Notre Dame to win the ACC championship game. They would also need Ohio State to either lose or finish 5-0 without a Big Ten title. For added assurance, they should hope Cincinnati loses at Tulsa, and Texas A&M loses at Auburn.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Florida, Alabama and Clemson are in, but the computer still likes a 5-0 Ohio State team that doesn't play Michigan State. In this scenario, it has Notre Dame in the No. 5 spot with a 58.5% chance. There's a 2.2% chance all four playoff teams come from either the ACC or SEC.
Three (!) SEC teams
Florida, Alabama, Notre Dame, Texas A&M
How we get there: Florida beats Alabama to win the SEC, Notre Dame eliminates Clemson in the ACC championship game, and Cincinnati loses to Tulsa or in the AAC championship game. Ohio State would also lose, or finish 5-0 without a conference title. In this scenario, the Aggies would have the best win in the country -- against SEC champion Florida -- and the best loss in the country, to Alabama.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: While Florida, Alabama and Notre Dame would all have at least a 73% chance to finish in the top four, the computer still likes Ohio State for the fourth spot at 5-0, and has BYU at No. 5 (30.4%), followed by the Aggies (17.4%). There is a 0.5% chance the SEC gets three teams in.
The Big 12 lives!
Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Oklahoma
How we get there: Alabama beats Florida in the SEC championship game and eliminates the Gators. Clemson wins the ACC title, splitting with the Irish. Texas A&M loses at Auburn. Ohio State plays only five games. Cincinnati loses. Oklahoma beats a top-15 Iowa State team to win the Big 12 in a thriller.
Allstate Playoff Predictor says: Sorry, Oklahoma. The machine still favors Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and BYU with at least a 20.8% chance. The Sooners under this scenario still have only a .7% chance.