Last week, when the College Football Playoff selection committee released its first rankings of the season, the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes were in the precarious No. 4 position, looking up at the one-loss Clemson Tigers.
And that was before an alarming rise in COVID-19 cases within the program put the rest of Ohio State's season in jeopardy.
Now, there's no guarantee Ohio State will be able to play enough games to be eligible to compete in the Big Ten Conference championship game. Saturday's contest against Illinois was the second Ohio State game canceled this season, along with the Nov. 14 trip to Maryland, because of COVID-19 concerns within the Terrapins' program. According to the Big Ten, a team must play at least six games to participate in the conference title game. If the average number of games played in the league drops to six or below, that benchmark will also lower.
Here's the good news for Ohio State and its fans: The CFP doesn't require teams to play a minimum number of games to qualify for a semifinal.
Here's the bad news: A 5-0 Ohio State team that doesn't have a conference title but still finishes in the top four would be difficult for the selection committee to justify -- especially with No. 5 Texas A&M, No. 6 Florida and No. 7 Cincinnati holding steady and ultimately compiling bigger and better résumés. Add to that Northwestern fumbling its opportunity in a loss to a now 2-3 Michigan State team and the Big Ten could be in a real playoff predicament. If Ohio State isn't the Big Ten's champion by playing in its title game, it's unlikely the committee would take a one-loss Northwestern or Indiana team instead.
As of now, Ohio State probably will have to play at Michigan State on Saturday and in its regular-season finale at home against Michigan to qualify for the Big Ten championship -- which is not impossible. While the Buckeyes haven't closed the door yet on facing the Spartans, most other programs that have experienced significant numbers of positive COVID-19 tests have been sidelined for two weeks because of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's 10-day isolation period and 14-day quarantine for contact tracing. Any player in the Big Ten who tests positive is out for at least 21 days, per Big Ten protocol. Citing privacy reasons, Ohio State declined to reveal how many players tested positive.
"The thing that we fear the most, every time those test results come back, you hold your breath every day to see what's going on and how you're team's doing, and here we are this week," said Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who also tested positive. "... We're hoping to get some of these tests back, get some good news there, and then put the focus towards Michigan State."
If Ohio State can't play in East Lansing on Saturday, the No. 4 spot could ultimately be a much bigger battle than it appeared to be a week ago. It was clear this week that No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 3 Clemson are playing at a different level than the rest of the country and en route to locking up semifinal spots.
Even without head coach Nick Saban, who was home isolating after a positive COVID-19 test, Alabama steamrollered rival Auburn 42-13 in the Iron Bowl. Notre Dame's maturity was evident Friday afternoon when it avoided a potential trap game at North Carolina, winning 31-17 and looking every bit the part of a playoff contender. And Clemson, which hadn't won a game since Halloween, reminded everyone it's still one of the best teams in the country with a 52-17 dismantling of Pitt.
So who's No. 4?
The Buckeyes aren't done yet
This is your weekly (or is it daily?) reminder that college football sometimes changes by the hour during the pandemic. Ohio State is testing its team again Sunday and closely monitoring its positivity rates while hoping those who have already tested negative stay that way. Day said Saturday if the Buckeyes can return to practice Thursday and have a walk-through Friday, they can still play Saturday. While it all hinges upon its test results, Ohio State might still play its final two games, win the Big Ten and finish in the top four.
There is also another possibility.
When the Big Ten announced its schedule on Sept. 19, it revealed "a ninth game for all 14 teams during a newly created Big Ten Champions Week the weekend of December 19." So while Ohio State might miss its opportunity against Michigan State, it will have another game on either Dec. 18 or 19 that will count toward its overall record. The Buckeyes could potentially still finish 6-0 without playing in or winning the Big Ten championship -- and could be matched up against a respectable opponent for a final opportunity to impress the committee. (No, Ohio State can't play on Friday, pick up its sixth win and then hop in the title game on Saturday. Results are through Dec. 12, per a Big Ten spokesperson.)
If it doesn't travel to Michigan State, Ohio State absolutely has to finish its season against rival Michigan stronger than it did in its Nov. 21 win against Indiana. If the Buckeyes don't play in the Big Ten title game, that win against IU could be their only win against a ranked opponent -- a game in which they allowed almost 500 passing yards and Justin Fields threw three interceptions. Not exactly the lasting impression they want to leave on the committee when other teams could be punctuating their resumes with conference titles against ranked opponents. No matter which team Ohio State faces to end the season, it has to leave no doubt it is a top-four team.
The SEC and ACC can each make a case for two teams
Clemson and Notre Dame remain on a collision course for the Dec. 19 ACC championship game, where a Clemson win would still leave Notre Dame with an excellent shot to finish in the top four as a one-loss runner-up. In the SEC, if Florida beats Alabama to win the conference title, the league-champion Gators would be in, and the committee could easily justify one-loss Alabama in a semifinal, as well. If both of those scenarios unfold -- and Ohio State's game at Michigan State is canceled -- there is also the possibility that the top four would include Florida, Alabama, Notre Dame and Clemson.
Remember, though, conference titles are one of several tiebreakers the committee uses when comparing similar teams. Any team that doesn't win its league would be measured in the same way as Ohio State would without playing in the Big Ten championship. At that point, it could boil down to the eye test and who the committee simply thinks is better.
Texas A&M has a path
The Aggies are on the bubble, with their earlier win against Florida likely to keep them ahead of the Gators again this week, along with their win over LSU on Saturday. They need Notre Dame to win the ACC, hand Clemson its second loss and knock the Tigers out of the top four for good. If that were to happen and Ohio State finishes 5-0 with no conference title, it's possible the Aggies could leapfrog the Buckeyes for that No. 4 spot. They would be evaluated in a similar way, though, as neither would have a conference title, so which team could better compensate for it?
That's not the only scenario, though. If Florida beats Alabama to win the SEC and Texas A&M runs the table and finishes with one loss, A&M would have the best win in the country -- against the SEC-champion Florida -- and the best loss, to Alabama. If that were to happen and Ohio State's season comes unraveled, would the committee consider all three SEC teams? It would depend on what transpires with Clemson and Notre Dame. The top four could be Florida, Alabama, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. (It's 2020.)
Cincinnati still needs help -- but not as much as the Pac-12 or Big 12
The Bearcats' game at Temple was canceled, but their situation remains status quo. Cincinnati needs to win at No. 25 Tulsa on Dec. 12, win the AAC and have upsets happen in the ranking above. It's not enough for Cincinnati to finish as undefeated conference champions. The ideal situation would be for Alabama to beat Florida in the SEC title game, Texas A&M to lose at Auburn and Notre Dame to beat Clemson. That's a way the Bearcats could finish in the top four with Ohio State.
While it seems like a lot to ask -- and it is -- it's not as much of a long shot as the Pac-12 or Big 12. Oregon's loss to Oregon State was a dagger, but it's not even the loss that really did it. There's simply not a team in the Pac-12 that resembles a top-four contender. When the committee put Oregon at No. 15 as the Pac-12's top team in its initial ranking, it was clear the conference had its work cut out for it. After Oregon's loss, it seems clear the committee just got that one right.
While the Big 12 race has boiled down to a fantastic finish, and Iowa State and Oklahoma have improved dramatically in spite of their two losses, it's probably too little, too late.