It's OK to admit it: College football's Week 11 slate isn't great. That was the case before three games involving top-five teams, not to mention over half of the SEC's slate, were postponed or canceled, and it is certainly the case afterward. There are no ranked-vs.-ranked matchups, and there isn't a game that involves both a national title contender and a single-digit spread. After last week's big Florida-Georgia and Notre Dame-Clemson duo, that feels like a letdown.
Weeks without surefire heavyweight battles can be freeing, however: They can allow you to check out a bunch of teams you've been meaning to watch but maybe haven't had the chance to yet.
So let's call this Upstarts Week. Quite a few of college football's most interesting stories -- overachievers, national title dark horses, surprising conference title contenders or plain old good stories -- get marquee opportunities to show their wares to a national audience. Let's take advantage of that and talk about happy surprises!
(Note: rankings in headers are from the AP poll.)
No. 2 Notre Dame
The basics: 7-0 (6-0 in the ACC), eighth in SP+, 48% chance of reaching the CFP, per ESPN's Stats & Information, up from 6% in the preseason.
Week 11 game: at Boston College (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Biggest strength: The Irish create so many negative plays. Forty percent of opponents' rushes have gone for zero or negative yardage (first in FBS), and 37% of opponents' dropbacks have resulted in pass-rush pressure (eighth).
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah might be the best run-defending linebacker in the country, and the Irish are blessed with two defensive linemen close to the Chase Young Line -- Ohio State's Young enjoyed a 19% pressure rate on his pass rushes last season, and ends Adetokunbo Ogundeji and Isaiah Foskey are both at 17%.
Notre Dame doesn't play a ton of man coverage -- the secondary mainly forms a cloud, keeps passes in front of it and swarms to the ball. Havoc at the front, bend-don't-break at the back.
Biggest red flag: Jonathan Doerer is getting a little too much work. Only seven FBS kickers have been asked to attempt more field goals than the Notre Dame senior. The Irish score touchdowns on only 75% of their goal-to-go situations (64th in FBS) and rank just 68th in success rate inside the 10 (47%). Against Clemson, they scored only one touchdown in their first seven scoring opportunities. They survived, yes, but barely. In a CFP game against Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields, Notre Dame will need seven points, not three.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at North Carolina (Week 13). A rematch with Clemson in the ACC title game is pretty likely, but there's nothing saying the Irish will be unbeaten in that game. SP+ ranks the Tar Heels 12th overall and projects a toss-up (projected score: 30.2-30.2). That could be the Thanksgiving weekend conference rivalry game we never knew we needed.
No. 7 Cincinnati
The basics: 6-0 (4-0 in the AAC), 10th in SP+, 10% chance of reaching the CFP
Week 11 game: vs. East Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET on Friday, ESPN2)
Biggest strength: The defense is dynamite. The Bearcats are fourth in defensive SP+ -- ahead of Notre Dame, Clemson and Alabama -- and have not given up more than 13 points in any of their five FBS games.
Cincinnati is third in success rate allowed and fourth in overall havoc rate (total tackles for loss, passes defensed and forced fumbles divided by total plays). The pass rush is a bit of a one-man show (defensive end Myjai Sanders has five sacks and 23 pressures), but the secondary is equal-opportunity dynamite.
In 23 passes as primary coverage man, Ahmad Gardner has given up eight completions and snared three interceptions. He's allowing minus-0.3 adjusted yards per attempt (yards per attempt, adjusted with touchdowns counting as 20 bonus yards and interceptions as 45-yard deductions), while Coby Bryant (4.4 AY/A in 26 passes), James Wiggins (3.6 in 24) and Arquon Bush (minus-3.1 in 13) are almost equally dominant.
Biggest red flag: The offense isn't quite as playoff-worthy. It has improved to 29th in offensive SP+, mind you, with solid pass efficiency (ninth in passing success rate) and explosiveness in the run game. But the Bearcats go three-and-out on 28% of their drives (63rd in FBS), and if you don't let quarterback Desmond Ridder beat you with explosive runs, Cincy is forced to nibble its way down the field a few yards at a time.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at UCF (Week 12). The Knights rank 21st in SP+, which gives Cincy only a 60% chance of winning. It's fair to point out, however, that the Bearcats have overachieved SP+ projections by nearly two touchdowns per game this year.
No. 10 Indiana
The basics: 3-0, 29th in SP+, 3% chance of reaching the CFP, 8% chance of reaching the Big Ten title game
Week 11 game: at Michigan State (noon ET, ABC)
Biggest strength: random explosions. We're basically one week from the biggest Indiana game since ... 1967's Rose Bowl run? Since ever? A win in East Lansing would set up an unbeaten-vs.-unbeaten battle with Ohio State in Columbus, and any chance IU has at remaining unbeaten two weeks from now will come from the Hoosiers' ability to nibble, nibble, nibble and strike.
SP+ hasn't completely bought into the Hoosiers, but their potential is clear. They are only 46th in offensive success rate this season, but they're third in marginal explosiveness, which measures the magnitude of successful plays and adjusts for field position. Receiver Whop Philyor and Ty Fryfogle are threats all over the field, and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is looking downfield to them more this year. It's paying off: On passes at least 15 yards downfield, he's 13-for-28 for 353 yards.
Biggest red flag: explosions for the opponent. Indiana's defense ranks 100th in marginal explosiveness, and the big plays are equally distributed: The Hoosiers are 87th in rushing marginal explosiveness, 92nd in passing, 100th on standard downs and 91st on passing downs. I'm guessing that might be a problem against Ohio State.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at Ohio State (Week 12). There are quite a few other tests left, too. The Hoosiers travel to Wisconsin on Dec. 5 and host a top-40 Purdue the week after that. It's really fun that Indiana currently has better CFP odds than Oklahoma and Georgia, but it's going to be a challenge keeping this story going.
No. 15 Coastal Carolina
The basics: 7-0 (5-0 in the Sun Belt), 38th in SP+, 32% chance of finishing unbeaten
Week 11 game: at Troy (noon ET, ESPN2)
Biggest strength: the prettiest damn offense in the country. Head coach Jamey Chadwell has long preferred a fun, run-heavy attack, and to be sure, Coastal still runs the ball a lot -- running backs still average more than 30 carries per game. But with redshirt freshman Grayson McCall at quarterback, Coastal now just runs to complement the pass.
McCall is completing 70% of his passes with a 16-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, and if or when the Chanticleers fall behind schedule, McCall catches them up: Coastal has improved from 47th to sixth in passing downs success rate. Junior receiver Jaivon Heiligh has seen his production erupt, too: He has caught 35 of 52 targets for 610 yards and six TDs.
More than the production, this offense is simply fun. The Chanticleers deploy unbalanced formations and wheel routes and every wrinkle you can think of in their option game. They lead the nation in the average number of times you say "Well that was pretty cool" per snap. They are winning by more than three touchdowns per game and entertaining you while they do it.
Biggest red flag: run defense. The Chants haven't given up more than 27 points in a game and have given up a combined 20 the past three games, but you can run on them. They're 66th in rushing success rate allowed, and two remaining opponents, Appalachian State and Liberty, are both in the top 20 in rushing success rate. To remain unbeaten, Coastal might have to win a shootout or two.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at Appalachian State (Week 12). Of the four best teams on Coastal's schedule, three show up in the next four weeks. While App State's loss to Marshall knocked it from the unbeaten ranks, the Mountaineers are still 26th in SP+.
No. 22 Liberty
The basics: 7-0, 8% chance of finishing unbeaten
Week 11 game: Western Carolina (noon ET, ESPNU)
Biggest strength: They can do whatever you can't defend. Liberty is 33rd in offensive SP+ (a solid, opponent-adjusted accomplishment considering the Flames rank 97th in SP+ strength of schedule) and has scored at least 30 points against each of six FBS opponents.
Like Coastal, Hugh Freeze's unbeaten Flames will run the ball as long as you let them -- three running backs have 50-plus carries, and not counting sacks, quarterback Malik Willis is averaging 11 carries per game and 9 yards per carry.
That's devastating enough, but if you load the box, Willis will punish you for that, too. He's completing 67% of his passes with a 12-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio. Each of his top three targets -- wideouts DJ Stubbs, Kevin Shaa and CJ Yarbrough -- is averaging over 13 yards per catch. In Liberty's upset of Virginia Tech last week, Willis was 20-for-30 passing and rushed for 123 yards in 16 non-sack carries.
Biggest red flag: run defense. Again like Coastal, Liberty makes sure you run the ball about as well as it does. The Flames are allowing 4-plus yards on 56% of opponent carries, 106th in FBS, and they've given up at least 34 points in three of their past six games. That won't matter against Western Carolina, but it could make the last two games on the schedule a challenge.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at Coastal Carolina (Week 14). The Flames still have two tricky road trips, first to Raleigh in Week 12 to face NC State (and potentially move to 3-0 vs. the ACC) and then to Myrtle Beach to face the Chants. That's the main reason their odds of finishing unbeaten aren't great, but obviously they'll have a chance to sweep.
No. 23 Northwestern
The basics: 3-0, 33rd in SP+, 2% chance of reaching the CFP, 19% chance of reaching the Big Ten title game
Week 11 game: at Purdue (5 p.m. ET, BTN)
Biggest strength: another devastating defense. The Wildcats are fifth in defensive SP+, second in marginal explosiveness and fifth in points allowed per drive. Coordinator Mike Hankwitz's defense will let you run the ball for a few yards at a time, but they're a Chinese finger trap -- the moment you try anything aggressive, you're stuck. It has yet to give up a 30-yard gain, and it has given up a paltry 83.0 passer rating to date, with one touchdown to eight interceptions.
If you're somehow patient and successful enough to reach the red zone, you're still not guaranteed points. The Wildcats are third in points allowed per scoring opportunity and fifth in goal-to-go touchdown rate allowed. Maryland, Iowa and Nebraska have averaged 33 points against teams not named Northwestern ... and 12 against the Wildcats.
Biggest red flag: another bad offense. Northwestern is undeniably improved on O, but that's only because of where the bar was set. The Wildcats are running the ball a ton, but they're 114th in rushing success rate, so they're constantly behind schedule. The run game is intended to be the engine here, and it's not getting anywhere.
There's potential, at least. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey is completing 67% of his passes, and Northwestern is 12th in passing downs success rate. Plus, when the Wildcats do get to the red zone, they score touchdowns. They're first in goal-to-go touchdown rate and second in points per scoring opp.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: Wisconsin (Week 12). The Wildcats avoid Ohio State, but they do still have to play the Badgers. Between that and trips to Purdue and Minnesota, they have a lot of work to do before they can be considered serious Big Ten West contenders.
San Jose State
The basics: 3-0, 81st in SP+, 19% chance of winning the Mountain West
Week 11 game: UNLV (10:30 p.m., FS2)
Biggest strength: an injury-proof passing game. Arkansas transfer Nick Starkel began the season with two excellent performances in wins over Air Force and New Mexico, and when he missed most of the San Diego State game because of injury, sophomore Nick Nash took over and led the Spartans to 28 points against a strong defense. SJSU ranks 14th in passing success rate and has played lovely ball-control offense, enough to drive the Spartans to their first 3-0 start since 1982. They're now the No. 2 favorites in the Mountain West.
The key to SJSU's passing success has been getting the ball out quickly. The Spartans have given up one sack all season and are averaging just 8.8 air yards per pass (63rd in FBS), but leading receiver Bailey Gaither is still averaging 16.1 yards per catch, and Tre Walker and tight end Derrick Deese Jr. are at 11.9 and 12.7, respectively. They dink and dunk but still move the chains.
Biggest red flag: a one-dimensional attack. If a defense like Boise State's or Nevada's can tackle well and prevent short passes from turning into big gains, SJSU probably won't be able to lean on the ground game to compensate. The Spartans are 102nd in rushing success rate, and backs Kairee Robinson and Tyler Nevens are averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. Not great.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: at Boise State (Week 13). SP+ favors the Broncos by 10.7 points in that one. That said, the most important game on the docket might be the season ender against fellow 3-0 team Nevada. Win that one and the Spartans might get a rematch with BSU in the MWC title game.
Arkansas
The basics: 3-3, 60th in SP+, 26% chance of finishing .500 or better per SP+
Week 11 game: at Florida (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Biggest strength: They're just a pain in the butt. Most of the teams on this list have lingering goals of conference or national contention, but for the Razorbacks, simply getting to .500 at this point has been a spectacular success. They went 4-20 the past two seasons, and they're one win from matching that total in 10 SEC games.
Arkansas gives you nothing easy. Coordinator Barry Odom's defense is 10th in marginal explosiveness allowed, and despite having played three teams in the SP+ top 25, they are a solid 30th in points allowed per drive. They bend and bend, and when you make a mistake, they pounce: They lead the country with 12 interceptions. Former walk-on Hudson Clark has three of those -- opponents have tried to pick on him, targeting him 22 times, but he's allowing just 3.9 AY/A.
Biggest red flag: The offense has only so many answers. Arkansas is 44th in standard downs success rate ... and 105th on passing downs. The run game doesn't go anywhere -- star running back Rakeem Boyd has just 253 yards in 70 carries -- and while early-down passing works reasonably well, quarterback Feleipe Franks faces a ton of pressure and takes a ton of sacks. Combined with an overall lack of big-play potential, that usually means drives stall out pretty quickly. Arkansas is just 102nd in points per drive and 87th in three-and-out percentage.
Toughest remaining regular-season game: Alabama (Week 14), though obviously this week's trip to Florida isn't exactly easy. But really, it's not about winning those games, it's about winning the other two. If the Hogs can beat LSU at home and Missouri in Columbia, they could finish .500, which should merit Pittman SEC Coach of the Year honors.
Week 11 playlist
In addition to the games above, here are a few more you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from information and entertainment perspectives.
All times Eastern.
Early Saturday
No. 9 Miami at Virginia Tech (noon, ESPN2). Two offenses that live off big plays, two defenses that alternate between making and allowing big plays. This should be fun.
Coast Guard at Merchant Marine (12:05 p.m., ESPN3). It has been killing me not being able to share many small-school deep cuts on this list, but we've got a random great one here. Put the Hoosiers on the big screen, then whip out the laptop and follow along to the Secretaries' Cup.
Saturday afternoon
Louisville at Virginia (3:30 p.m., ACC Network). One of the most aesthetically pleasing games on the slate. Virginia is slowly crafting a fun, misdirection-heavy "throw everything against the wall and see what sticks" offense, and Louisville seems to score only on 90-yard explosions.
Saturday evening
No. 19 SMU at Tulsa (7 p.m., ESPN2). The winner of this one is the favorite for the AAC's second title-game slot. I think SMU is the better team, but Tulsa has overachieved dramatically in three of four games.
No. 13 Wisconsin at Michigan (7:30 p.m., ABC). Wisconsin looked incredible in its first game, then went on quarantine for two weeks. Michigan is in full-on desperation mode. Expect absolutely anything here.
Late Saturday
Oregon State at Washington (11 p.m., FS1). We finally get to find out whether Washington is as good as SP+ says.