The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first top 25 ranking of the season on Nov. 24, and because of the Pac-12's late start, Notre Dame's fall fling with the ACC, and a bizarre Big Ten, there is a wider field to discuss in the top half of the ranking.
Six weeks before the selection committee's final ranking was announced last season, there were five teams with at least a 50% chance to make the playoff and no other teams with more 15%, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. This year, there are still eight teams with at least a 15% chance to reach the playoff -- and that includes every Power 5 conference but the Big 12, and independent BYU.
But what about Cincinnati? Wisconsin? Oklahoma State?
It's time for a deeper dive into what each team needs to do to improve its playoff chances between now and Selection Day on Dec. 20. For Clemson, it's crystal clear -- recover from the program's first regular-season loss in 39 games -- and don't let it happen again.
"We're 7-1," coach Dabo Swinney said after the Tigers' double-overtime loss to Notre Dame. "Nobody was handing out a trophy tonight. Nobody was rolling a stage out there tonight. We got a ways to go. We have a lot of guys that have grown and learned a lot from this year. It's obviously been challenging on everyone. The only thing we can't be is 11-0. We can still be 10-1, that's the best we can be. But you can't win 10 'til you win eight."
Here's a look at Clemson's path to the playoff, along with every other contender, ranked in order of their current spot in the Associated Press Top 25 poll:
1. Alabama
Where they stand now: The Tide should have a comfortable spot in the committee's top four. Alabama is currently No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record metric, which reflects the chance an average Top 25 team would be able to achieve the same record given the schedule. It typically aligns with how the committee views résumés. If multiple teams finish undefeated, Alabama's schedule will be further scrutinized in that No. 1 debate, but there's no reason to think the Tide won't run the table. ESPN's Football Power Index gives Alabama at least an 87% chance to win in each of its remaining games.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Florida. With their win against Georgia on Saturday, the Gators took the lead in the SEC East and are on track to face Alabama in the SEC championship game. It takes only one upset to change the playoff picture, and if Florida can run the table and win the SEC title, nothing is guaranteed for Alabama. It's possible the committee could choose both Florida and Alabama, but what if there is an undefeated Pac-12 champion? What if Clemson and Notre Dame are both in the top-four discussion?
What the committee will like: The 52-24 win against Texas A&M on Oct. 3 is looking more impressive as the Aggies have developed into one of the better teams in the West Division. Committee members will also reward Alabama for being No. 2 in offensive efficiency with quarterback Mac Jones, and a defense that has shown steady improvement each of the past three games.
What the committee won't like: The back half of the schedule. With the exception of a win against what should be a ranked opponent in the SEC championship game, there's little chance for Alabama to further bolster its résumé during the regular season. At 4-2, Auburn is the only opponent left on Alabama's schedule with a winning record.
2. Notre Dame
Where they stand now: The Irish have the best win in the country and a clear path to the top four, but it won't be easy to beat Clemson again should the two meet in the ACC title game. Even with a loss, though, the committee could consider both Clemson and Notre Dame for top-four spots -- assuming their only loss is to each other. The Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Notre Dame a 46% chance to reach the semifinals, trailing only Alabama and Ohio State.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Winning on the road. Before getting to potentially see Clemson again in the ACC title game, the Irish need to win at Boston College on Saturday, at North Carolina (on a Friday night) and at Wake Forest on Dec. 12. Coach Brian Kelly said his team now has a target on its back.
What the committee will like: Notre Dame's résumé. In addition to the win against then-No. 1 Clemson, Notre Dame's remaining strength of schedule is ranked No. 20, according to ESPN.
What the committee won't like: A blowout loss in the ACC title game. The reason Clemson and Notre Dame are both still in the conversation today is because one touchdown separated them in double overtime. If the ACC championship game is equally as thrilling, this time with a Clemson win, it would be easy to justify top-four spots for both teams. But if Clemson wins convincingly, the Irish are likely out -- especially if there are multiple other contenders.
3. Ohio State
Where they stand now: The Buckeyes look like a top-four team, and that's why they almost certainly will be -- because their schedule isn't impressive. Ohio State's first three opponents (Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers) are a combined 1-7. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State and Alabama are the only two teams right now with at least a 50% chance to finish in the top four.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Any upset. Ohio State shouldn't lose at Maryland or against Indiana on Nov. 21, but if the Buckeyes do stumble somewhere along the way, the entire Big Ten could be on the bubble.
What the committee will like: A Heisman-caliber quarterback in Justin Fields, consistency each week and the Buckeyes' ability to leave no doubt they're the better team. The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in ESPN's game control metric, which measures how dominant a team is.
What the committee won't like: Strength of schedule. The 38-25 win at Penn State on Halloween has already lost its luster, as the Nittany Lions dropped to 0-3 this week. With no nonconference opponents, the Big Ten is relying on its own members for quality wins, and with the downward trajectory of Penn State and Michigan, Ohio State needs IU to stay ranked because the Hoosiers might be the only Top 25 team it winds up playing in the regular season.
4. Clemson
Where they stand now: In a must-win situation each weekend. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Clemson's chances of making the semifinals dropped from 70% to 45% after the loss. If the Tigers win out and punctuate their season with an ACC title, though, they should finish in the top four. And there's no reason to believe they won't end up there, considering they have only three regular-season games left (at Florida State, vs. Pitt and at Virginia Tech).
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: No margin for error. With one loss already, the Tigers can't lose again. It's that simple.
What the committee will like: It's not as if D.J. Uiagalelei struggled against Notre Dame -- he more than held his own and the offense will be in good hands in the future -- but the return of Trevor Lawrence will give Clemson the Heisman-caliber quarterback capable of putting the entire team on his shoulders and leading by experience. If they can dominate the final three unranked ACC opponents and continue to showcase an aggressive defense, it will help compensate for an average schedule.
What the committee won't like: Costly mistakes. How Clemson wins could impact its seeding, should the Tigers finish as ACC champions. For the second straight game, Travis Etienne fumbled and it led to a score because of a bungled handoff. There also was a costly holding penalty in the fourth quarter and a poor decision by Etienne to run out of bounds. The committee can easily access commercial-free game film, and those are the details that help determine the rankings.
5. Texas A&M
Where they stand now: The Aggies are on the rise. Texas A&M has the third-best résumé in the FBS, according to strength of record, and according to FPI, there's a 19% chance the Aggies win out and finish 9-1. If their only loss is to Alabama, it's possible the committee considers them for a top-four spot. But it would be extremely difficult to justify including a team that didn't win its division if there are other Power 5 conference champions and runners-up that are equally as impressive. The committee has, however, chosen Alabama under those circumstances in the past.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Alabama. Assuming the Tide runs the table, it will win the West, leaving Texas A&M under pressure to win out and root for Nick Saban's squad to beat the Gators in the SEC title game.
What the committee will like: A win over the SEC East champs. This is where the committee's debate could get heated. Texas A&M defeated Florida 41-38 on Oct. 10. If the Gators win the SEC East -- which they are on track to do -- the Aggies could boast a win without having to face them in the SEC championship game. Take it a step further. What if Florida knocks off Alabama and wins the SEC and the Aggies are sitting at 9-1 with a win over the conference champions?
What the committee won't like: A road loss at Auburn. It's the only remaining game on the schedule that ESPN's FPI gives the Aggies less than a 50% chance to win. Texas A&M is under pressure to win out.
6. Florida
Where they stand now: The Gators took the lead in the SEC East and should be heavy favorites in each of their five remaining regular-season games. According to FPI, there's a 98% chance that Alabama wins the West and a 93% chance the Gators win the East. If Florida can upset Alabama and finish as a one-loss SEC champion, the Gators are in.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Alabama. Florida quarterback Kyle Trask has been phenomenal -- especially when he has tight end Kyle Pitts open -- and the Gators still haven't reached their full potential because the defense has been inconsistent. In order to pull off the upset against the Tide, Florida would have to play an almost perfect game, particularly defensively.
What the committee will like: Trask and the No. 4 offensive efficiency in the country. The Gators took advantage of a banged-up Georgia defense Saturday, but it has been on display all season.
What the committee won't like: A two-loss SEC runner-up. Even if Florida wins out in the regular season, it's going to be tough to make a case for the Gators if they don't win the SEC championship. None of the remaining teams on their schedule are .500 or better, and they have a combined record of 8-18. While losses to Alabama and Texas A&M would be filed under "good losses," there wouldn't be enough good wins to compensate for them.
7. Cincinnati
Where they stand now: The Bearcats are leading the Group of 5 race for a spot in a New Year's Six bowl with an outside chance of making the playoff. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Cincinnati has a 10% chance to reach the semifinals, trailing undefeated BYU's 23%. That can flip, though, because the Bearcats have greater opportunities ahead. Cincinnati has four regular-season games and a potential conference championship game left. ESPN's FPI gives the Bearcats a 19% chance to run the table, and if they do, their chances of reaching a semifinal will skyrocket to 53%.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Multiple contenders in Power 5 leagues. With the ACC and SEC potentially having two top-four teams, plus the Pac-12 champion and Ohio State, it's already a crowded race.
What the committee will like: Cincinnati's defense, its strength of schedule and its win over Houston, a common opponent with BYU. The Bearcats haven't allowed more than 13 points or 300 yards to any of their five FBS opponents. They also earned a more convincing win over Houston than BYU, and they currently have three wins against teams with winning records while BYU has two.
What the committee won't like: A Nov. 21 loss at UCF. If a Group of 5 team is going to finish in the committee's top four, it almost certainly has to finish undefeated -- especially during a season in which there weren't any nonconference opportunities against Power 5 teams. The Bearcats end the season with three straight road trips, but the most difficult might be against the Knights. ESPN's FPI gives Cincinnati a 39.4% chance to win at UCF, but it could also be a toss-up in the regular-season finale at Tulsa.
8. BYU
Where they stand now: Two wins away from an undefeated season. BYU faces North Alabama on Nov. 21 before ending its season against San Diego State on Dec. 12. According to ESPN's FPI, no team in the country has a better chance to finish this season undefeated than BYU (89%). This puts the Cougars in prime position to join the highest-ranking Group of 5 champion in a New Year's Six bowl. Because BYU is an independent, it's treated just like Notre Dame is during a typical season, so if the Cougars are ranked within the top 12, they are likely to earn a spot in a more lucrative bowl.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Its weak schedule. BYU's overall strength of schedule this season ranks 101st. The Cougars' remaining strength of schedule ranks 122nd. The Cougars have played eight games and only two of those wins have come against teams with winning records (4-3 Troy and 4-3 Louisiana Tech).
What the committee will like: A Friday night win against a ranked Boise State team on the blue turf and a quarterback who should be in the Heisman conversation. Zach Wilson has emerged as one of the best players in the country, legitimizing BYU as a team that should at least be in the discussion for a top-10 finish. The Cougars are No. 6 in the country in game control, and that's in large part because of Wilson. BYU is No. 6 in the country in offensive efficiency.
What the committee won't like: A closer look at the win against Houston. The committee compares common opponents, and yes, would dive into this if BYU is in the same group of teams being ranked as Cincinnati. BYU trailed Houston 26-14 in the third quarter and led 29-26 with four minutes remaining. It was closer than the score indicated and BYU allowed Houston 438 yards while Cincinnati held Houston to 282 yards and 10 points.
9. Oregon
Where they stand now: The Ducks are playing catch-up to the rest of the playoff contenders, but after just one week took a small step forward as the league's top playoff contender. The question is how quickly Oregon can hit its stride. While Oregon beat Stanford to win its first game, Notre Dame already has won seven.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: A lack of big-stage opportunities. There's no top-four matchup like Clemson-Notre Dame, or top-10 matchup like Florida-Georgia. With no other ranked teams in the Pac-12 North, it could be difficult to determine Oregon's best win during the regular season. That puts an enormous amount of pressure on Oregon to win with style and for USC to stay ranked and win the South so the Pac-12 can make the most of its conference title game.
What the committee will like: A dominant, undefeated Pac-12 champion. If Oregon looks like a top-four team on Selection Day, it will be considered for a semifinal spot, but the Ducks are going to have to consistently play fundamentally sound, mistake-free football and leave no doubt they are one of the best.
What the committee won't like: A loss to an unranked opponent. A 6-1 Pac-12 champion will be in the committee's conversation, but if Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida and Texas A&M are also in the mix, one thing the committee will look at is: Who did they lose to? Alabama might have lost to the SEC East champs in the league title game. Clemson lost to Notre Dame. Maybe Notre Dame loses to Clemson. Florida lost to A&M. The Aggies lost to Bama. And Oregon? That loss would probably be a stark difference.
10. Wisconsin
Where they stand now: The Badgers are emerging from a COVID-19 outbreak, still clinging to hopes they can compete for the Big Ten title. Wisconsin had to cancel each of its past two games against Nebraska and Purdue, and hasn't played -- or really practiced much -- since its season-opening 45-7 win against Illinois on Oct. 23. But man, the Badgers looked good in that game. While they have continued team and position meetings via Zoom, and followed the Big Ten's return-to-play progression protocols, nobody knows what to expect from the Badgers at Michigan this week. In spite of it all, postseason possibilities remain. Wisconsin currently has a 41% chance to reach the playoff, the fifth best of any school in FBS.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: The effects of its canceled games. Wisconsin's outbreak has put it in a pressure-packed situation, having to play each of its five remaining games in order to qualify for the conference championship game. There's also the obvious question of how much the layoff impacted the team's preparation and physical conditioning.
What the committee will like: What Wisconsin lacks in quantity, it makes up with the quality of its remaining opponents. The Badgers are No. 8 in remaining strength of schedule, with opportunities against undefeated Northwestern and Indiana.
What the committee won't like: One bad loss. Few would be surprised if Wisconsin struggled on Saturday at Michigan, considering everything the Badgers have gone through, and all that Michigan needs to prove after its disappointing 1-2 start. With only six regular-season games, though, a lopsided loss would be extremely difficult to recover from.
11. Oklahoma State
Where they stand now: Long shots at best, but it's still premature to completely eliminate any one-loss Power 5 team with a chance to win its conference. There's a 4% chance Oklahoma State wins out and claims the Big 12 title with a 10-1 record. In that scenario, the Cowboys have a 26% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The more realistic possibility, though, is that Oklahoma State loses a second game. The Cowboys have a bye this week before their road trip to rival Oklahoma on Nov. 21. ESPN's FPI gives Oklahoma State a 25.5% chance to win.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: The SEC, ACC and Big Ten. Oklahoma State would need some chaos to occur in those conferences for the door to open back up to the Big 12.
What the committee will like: Three wins against ranked opponents. If Oklahoma State can run the table and win the Big 12, it could have one of the better résumés with wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and its Big 12 title game opponent. The Cowboys' remaining strength of schedule is No. 23.
What the committee won't like: A two-loss Big 12 champion. Unless there are multiple upsets in other leagues, that would be the final dagger for the Big 12 this year. Right now FPI projects a 96% chance that will happen.
12. USC
Where they stand now: In a similar position to Oregon with limited opportunities, but with seemingly more mistakes to correct. The Trojans needed two touchdowns in the final three minutes to beat Arizona State -- and remarkably, they did it. USC has a 7% chance to reach the playoff, compared to 27% for Oregon after Saturday. While USC is also favored to win each of its remaining games against unranked teams, the Trojans have a slightly more difficult path to the Pac-12 title game.
Biggest obstacle to the playoff: Nov. 21 at Utah. Remember the Utes? It was only last season they were on the brink of earning a top-four finish. ESPN's FPI gives USC a 52.8% chance to win.
What the committee will like: USC's playmakers. Coach Clay Helton talked about it after the game on Saturday and he's right. The Trojans are oozing talent. Quarterback Kedon Slovis came through in the clutch, USC had multiple backs shoulder the load and two receivers reached the 100-yard mark.
What the committee won't like: Four turnovers. USC was shaking off the rust on Saturday in its 28-27 win against ASU, a game that kicked off at 9 a.m. PT, after almost a year without playing a game. If USC is going to finish in the top four, though, that has to be the anomaly.