We know the college football coaching carousel will be limited this year. The only question is: How much?
Financial challenges stemming from the coronavirus pandemic are real. When combined with reduced game schedules and coach-friendly contracts, schools will need extreme motivation to make changes in the coming weeks.
This past weekend wasn't very good for those rooting for carousel craziness. The thought of 10-15 coaching changes, half of a typical coaching cycle, seems highly unlikely.
So let's speculate instead. Last year, when things were normal but the upcoming carousel looked a little dull, I put together a list of hypotheticals. Too many people didn't read the operative word -- "hypothetical"-- but it was fun to forecast what could happen.
What follows isn't necessarily a prediction, but a rundown of potential carousel nuggets (spicy ones!), based on what industry sources are telling me. Though it's unlikely all of these send the carousel spinning, something will. Even a pandemic won't stop some coaching movement.
"There's a path," a source said, "that this thing could open up."
Let's walk that path together.
Second chances for Sarkisian and Freeze?
The off-field problems that cost Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and Liberty coach Hugh Freeze the opportunities to lead Power 5 programs are not the same. Sarkisian's struggles with alcoholism led to his departure from USC. Freeze, meanwhile, resigned from Ole Miss in July 2017 amid personal conduct issues that included calls to a female escort service.
But Sarkisian and Freeze are thriving in their current roles. Sarkisian oversees arguably the nation's most explosive offense and has molded quarterback Mac Jones into a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate. Liberty on Saturday improved to 6-0, giving Freeze a 14-5 record with the Flames, an FBS independent. Former Auburn quarterback Malik Willis is blossoming under Freeze, who has produced top offenses throughout his career.
Both men are excellent offensive playcallers and recruiters. Both have SEC experience. Could a major opportunity be on the horizon?
Sarkisian is considered the stronger candidate. He turned down the Colorado job in February, which could actually benefit him after another strong year at Alabama.
"Somebody else tried to hire him, so you're not going to be the first one," an industry source said. "There's also not a lot of proven offensive [candidates] right now."
Another source added: "Sark is a lot more hirable. I don't think anybody will have a lot of questions."
But a Pac-12 administrator thinks Sarkisian isn't a slam-dunk candidate, noting that he didn't exactly thrive at two of the better jobs in the league (USC and Washington).
Freeze could be the more interesting Power 5 candidate. Can schools overlook how things ended at Ole Miss, which received a postseason ban and other penalties for violations under Freeze's watch? At some point, SEC schools will be intrigued, perhaps even Auburn if it moves on from Gus Malzahn. Although Will Muschamp appears somewhat safe, Freeze could be an option the next time South Carolina opens.
Freeze twice beat Nick Saban and guided Ole Miss to consecutive New Year's Six bowls.
"What Hugh's done, being a head coach and being successful, somebody's going to take a shot on him," a Power 5 administrator said. "You'd get beat up, but s---, he wins ball games."
A subplot with Freeze is whether he needs to make another move before returning to the Power 5 stage. He's an alum of Southern Miss, the only FBS school currently with a coaching vacancy. But, as one source noted, "If his goal is to get back to the SEC, he can get there easier from Liberty than Southern Miss."
Keep an eye on: Texas and Auburn
Any coaching carousel needs a big vacancy or two to really get things moving. There aren't many obvious hot spots, although both Texas and Auburn are being monitored after turbulent starts. Both teams recorded critical wins Saturday, momentarily taking heat off coaches Tom Herman and Gus Malzahn.
Texas finally looked dominant against Baylor and seemingly diffused the controversy around "The Eyes of Texas" afterward. Then again, Herman has no Big 12 titles and only one win over Oklahoma.
Herman and Malzahn both have contracts on their side. According to USA Today's coaching database, Texas would owe Herman about $15.4 million if it made a change this year, while Auburn would owe Malzahn a whopping $21.45 million. With Malzahn's guarantee, he would be owed $11 million of the $21-plus million within the first two months of termination. Those guarantees amid the pandemic -- not even counting what their assistants would be owed -- are steep. But Texas and Auburn both are places that can find the money when they really have to. The question is whether they reach a point where a change is inevitable, or whether they've targeted an obvious upgrade.
"Auburn always talks about it," an industry source told me Saturday. "They're never happy there."
Auburn is 3-2 but easily could be 1-4 after getting fortunate calls in victories over both Arkansas and Ole Miss. Since Malzahn agreed to a seven-year, $49 million contract in December 2017, he's 20-12. His offense hasn't recaptured its pre-2015 form. The Tigers still must face Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU later this fall.
If Auburn gets antsy enough to make an expensive move, where would it turn? One name to track is Oregon's Mario Cristobal, who won the Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl last season. Cristobal, who has a school-friendly contract after being promoted to replace Willie Taggart, is the second-lowest-paid coach in the league at $2.7 million. Despite some post-Rose Bowl buzz about a new contract, nothing was finalized before the pandemic.
Cristobal, signed through 2024, would owe $8 million if he leaves before 2021, increasing the financial toll for a suitor. But he's an elite national recruiter with SEC experience at Alabama and a Power 5 title under his belt.
"Mario would be a good fit at Auburn," a source said. "But you fire Gus and the staff and hire Mario, that's an ungodly amount of money during the COVID era."
The belief around Texas is that a move would be made only to go deep-sea hunting. The biggest fish available is Urban Meyer, Herman's former boss at Ohio State, who last coached in 2018 and works as a Fox analyst. Would athletic director Chris Del Conte, who didn't hire Herman, be open to Meyer and all that comes with him?
"I could see Urban making a play behind the scenes to get that one," a source said.
Added another person: "If [Del Conte] wants Urban, he may be inclined to move."
After Meyer, the candidate pool gets blurry. Penn State coach James Franklin could be an option for Del Conte. Iowa State's Matt Campbell is seemingly a better fit for a top Big Ten job or Notre Dame.
"Even if it's a crazy amount of money, they've got it," added another source. "I get the feeling that they feel like Herman's not the guy who can turn this thing around. But does that mean they make the change during the pandemic or wait a year?"
Unique contract situation for Michigan's Jim Harbaugh
Coaches almost never enter seasons with only two years remaining on their contracts, especially those with Harbaugh's reputation and relative success (48-18). But Harbaugh's current deal, which pays him more than $8 million annually, is set to expire after 2021.
The situation is especially unique because of Harbaugh's profile and his connection to the university. He has undoubtedly improved the program but hasn't delivered enough big wins, most namely against Ohio State, or elite quarterback development.
Still, coaches such as Harbaugh typically get contract extensions if they want them. Say Michigan goes 6-2 or 5-3 this fall, losing again to Ohio State. Would the school play hardball with Harbaugh? Would he be more or less inclined to walk away? NFL teams would jump at the chance to hire him, but he also would be walking away from his alma mater without truly meaningful accomplishments.
"I don't think he bails on it early," an industry source said.
Most don't expect Michigan to ever fire Harbaugh, saying other paths of separation are likelier. Harbaugh is still viewed positively, although there was some tension this summer over the Big Ten's initial season postponement, which university president Mark Schlissel strongly favored and Harbaugh strongly opposed.
"He controls the narrative," a source said of Harbaugh. "He could say, 'We're in a better place than where I found it. I'm going to go to the NFL, or take a year off and do some television and then go back to the NFL.' If he's fighting for another three-year contract, it's going to put the school in a really, really, really hard spot. Then, it becomes a public feud."
Another source said Harbaugh is actually helping Michigan by pushing a contract decision to the end of the season, where it could be clearer either way. Harbaugh will be finishing his sixth year.
"He's the five- or six-year-and-out guy," the source said, "and he's kind of at that mark."
Fickell, Napier lead Group of 5 coaching watch
Last week's Group of 5 slate featured two matchups pairing coaches who should be on the short lists for many potential Power 5 vacancies. Although SMU's Sonny Dykes and UAB's Bill Clark both are appealing candidates, the two winning coaches, Cincinnati's Luke Fickell and Louisiana's Billy Napier, are the names generating the most buzz.
Fickell, who coached Ohio State in 2011 but has blossomed in three-plus seasons at Cincinnati, is undoubtedly ready for a bigger role. But he also can be extremely picky, especially after recently finalizing a new contract that pays him Power 5 money ($3.4 million annually). After turning down Michigan State, Fickell likely would leave only for a job such as Penn State or Notre Dame. He could also play the long game and wait out Ohio State coach Ryan Day, who could soon land an NFL head-coaching job if he wants one.
Penn State might be the most intriguing option, if Franklin pursues a college job such as Texas or USC or one in the NFL.
"He'd have to really think about Penn State," an industry source said.
Napier has been terrific at Louisiana, which beat Iowa State in its opener and responded well from last week's loss to outlast UAB on the road. He's 22-11 with the Ragin' Cajuns and has positioned himself very well for most openings in the SEC or Big 12. While Texas is a reach, would Auburn consider Napier? He would be a great fit at South Carolina, the state where he played college football (Furman) and started his coaching career (South Carolina State, Clemson).
Boise State's Bryan Harsin is another top Group of 5 option. He boasts an exceptional record at Boise State (65-17), as well as two years of Power 5 assistant experience at Texas. But after turning down several Power 5 opportunities, what would sway him to make a move? Most likely only a job such as Oregon.
Along with Freeze, two other intriguing candidates from FBS independents are Army's Jeff Monken and BYU's Kalani Sitake. Since 2016, Monken is 40-19. He would be a great candidate at Illinois, which hasn't really taken off under Lovie Smith. Sitake has by far his best team at BYU, which last fall extended his contract through 2023. Sitake is a BYU alum and happy in Provo, but would he consider a move to, say, Arizona, if a vacancy emerges?
Pac-12 carousel intrigue is in South
The Pac-12 is still two weeks away from kickoff, as the league will play a six-game schedule. Could a coach truly lose his job based on such a truncated slate? It's pretty unlikely, but if there's movement in the league, look to the South Division.
USC's Clay Helton survived the 2019 season and should get through 2020, as well. Recruiting is on the upswing, and USC has made necessary investments in staff and resources. Helton still carries a hefty eight-figure guarantee, and jettisoning his staff wouldn't be cheap, either. Plus, several sources noted how much athletic director Mike Bohn likes Helton, whose natural affability certainly works in his favor.
"It's obvious that they love Clay," a source said. "Clay's just got to prove that with this new staff, there's a new energy."
USC opens against Arizona State, considered by coaches to be the Trojans' primary competition in the South. If USC gets past ASU, the remaining schedule -- Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Washington State and UCLA -- seems quite navigable. But if the Trojans stumble a few times, names such as Meyer (unlikely to USC) and Franklin (more likely despite a $5 million buyout to leave this year) will come up.
Arizona is the other potential Pac-12 hot spot, as Kevin Sumlin has struggled (9-15). But Sumlin still would be owed $7.5 million if dismissed, a substantial sum for a program with limited resources and football interest. Also, if the situation with Arizona basketball and the NCAA reaches a conclusion, Arizona might be even less inclined to do something in football.
UCLA coach Chip Kelly is considered safe at least until 2021.
A quiet carousel remains the likeliest outcome this year. But it also could be the reason some schools make moves.
"If there's only three or four jobs that open up," a source said, "it's better to be one of three, as opposed to next year, when you're like one of 20."