The 2019 coaching carousel is shaping up to be incredibly ... boring. Especially if USC hires Urban Meyer.
Wait, what? Isn't Meyer the most exciting hire USC could make? Yes, he is. But he's also not coaching, and would fill possibly the only marquee vacancy of this year's cycle. There would be no chain reaction of job openings.
Rutgers is currently the only coaching vacancy, and only a handful of other mid- to low-level Power 5 jobs are expected to open. If Rutgers brings back Greg Schiano, who industry sources say remains the focus of the search, there would be no movement among currently employed coaches. No changes are expected in the Big 12. Illinois' recent surge increases the chances Lovie Smith is back in 2020. The ACC figures to be quiet other than possibly Boston College.
The SEC might become a hot spot, but would potential vacancies like Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Arkansas really shake things up?
There will be some surprises in the cycle. There always are. Someone will go to the NFL. Someone will retire. Someone will get fired somewhat unexpectedly. Some school will see a market of great candidates and few vacancies and be aggressive. Some grotesque guarantee payment will be made to make a coach go away.
Here are five realistic hypothetical scenarios that would send the coaching carousel spinning this year.
USC hires Penn State coach James Franklin to replace Clay Helton
Few in the industry would be surprised to see Franklin as USC's next head coach. Meyer's return is no guarantee, and he might not be the preferred choice of new USC president Carol Folt.
Franklin has a very good team at Penn State and momentum in recruiting. He's a "Pennsylvania boy with a Penn State heart," as he famously said at his PSU introduction. But he also wants to win a national championship. If Penn State loses to Ohio State for the third consecutive year, and the Buckeyes win their third consecutive league title, Franklin could bolt for USC. Coaches crave access and USC has more -- both in recruiting and for the playoff -- than Penn State.
If the Penn State job opens, the candidate pool would be excellent. Four names immediately jump out: Baylor coach Matt Rhule (a former Penn State linebacker), Iowa State coach Matt Campbell, Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead and Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell.
Rhule recently received a contract extension at Baylor, but I'm told it wouldn't prohibit him from a move like Penn State, where he'd be a home-run hire. Moorhead, who shined as Penn State's offensive coordinator in 2016 and 2017, must turn things around with the Bulldogs but still has strong support among key Penn State people. Campbell, still one of the more talked-about candidates in the country, is ultimately a better fit closer to his home state of Ohio. Fickell has Cincinnati headed toward its second straight double-digit win season. He also has recruited Pennsylvania for years.
Florida State misses a bowl game (again) and the school fires Willie Taggart
FSU desperately wants to get Taggart to Year 3, given the school's financial constraints. Taggart would be owed about $17 million if fired after the season. But he might not leave Florida State with much choice, if the team misses the postseason in back-to-back years after snapping a nation-leading streak of 36 bowl appearances in 2018. FSU sits at 4-4 after thumping Syracuse on Saturday.
Athletic director David Coburn is right in saying most of the rumors are "nonsense," including Urban Meyer as a potential FSU target to replace Taggart. But there are some potentially intriguing candidates if the job opens for the second time in three years.
Florida State could pursue Kentucky coach Mark Stoops, who served as the Seminoles' defensive coordinator from 2010 to 2012 and has done a good job in Lexington, winning 10 games last season. He could rebuild the defense and instill greater discipline throughout the program.
The Seminoles want to catch Clemson, and they could hurt Dabo Swinney by taking away one of his playcallers, Tony Elliott (offense) or Brent Venables (defense).
Minnesota's P.J. Fleck would be an intriguing option after a breakthrough season for the Gophers. Fleck has no direct ties to FSU but has recruited Florida well.
FSU also could target Oregon's Mario Cristobal, a Miami native and former Hurricanes player and coach who knows the state inside and out. Hiring the Oregon coach twice in a row wouldn't sit well in Tallahassee, but FSU could sell Cristobal as different enough than Taggart.
An outside-the-box approach would include Washington State's Mike Leach, who has eyed the ACC as a potential next landing spot. Many coaches wonder what Leach could do at a program that can recruit at the highest level.
Virginia Tech's Justin Fuente was on FSU's radar when it hired Taggart. Memphis' Mike Norvell and Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian also could be considered.
Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley leaves for an NFL job
The Twitter jokes come every time Riley is in the Dallas area, whether for the Red River Showdown, the Big 12 championship or even Big 12 media day. If the Cowboys dismiss Jason Garrett after the season, Riley probably would be high on Jerry Jones' wish list. Other NFL teams also will pursue Riley, a playcalling genius who has grown into a strong leader despite being only 36.
If the Oklahoma job opens, the search would be fascinating. OU undoubtedly would want to maintain the offensive production Riley engineered. Iowa State's Campbell would make sense here and probably would listen, but he could be a better fit in a Big Ten job, closer to his Ohio roots.
Clemson's Venables is at the top of his craft, spent 13 seasons at Oklahoma and seems more than ready to lead a top program. Oklahoma looked in-house with Riley, and could do so again with first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, who projects as a future head coach. Would OU consider promoting him so soon? If so, Grinch could be paired with a top young offensive coordinator like Graham Harrell.
Virginia Tech's Fuente played at Oklahoma, but his struggles last year and early this season make him a tougher sell. Boise State coach Bryan Harsin has a sparkling record (58-16) and spent time in the Big 12 at Texas. Memphis' Norvell is a dynamic offensive coach and spent four years as an assistant at Tulsa.
North Texas' Seth Littrell and UCF's Josh Heupel both played at OU but are unlikely to be pursued right now.
Michigan and Michigan State part ways with coaches Jim Harbaugh and Mark Dantonio
The Mitten State might become the epicenter for this year's carousel intrigue. Despite Saturday's rout of Notre Dame, the debate about Harbaugh's future at Michigan intensifies with every loss to a top-10 opponent. Dantonio is headed toward a second straight middling season at Michigan State, which reached the playoff in 2015 but has backslid since.
If Harbaugh falls to 0-5 against Ohio State, there's a chance he and the school decide to part ways. Though it's extremely unlikely Michigan would fire Harbaugh, the short length of his remaining contract (two seasons) and constant NFL interest would make a separation possible. If Michigan opens, Campbell probably would be a prime target. Michigan is at or near the top of his list of preferred destinations. Baylor's Rhule also makes a lot of sense for Michigan, which could afford just about any buyout.
Michigan also could call former Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, who might consider a return, but only at a legacy program. Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has an affinity for Michigan and could be worth pursuing. Wake Forest's Dave Clawson, a consistent winner at one of the toughest Power 5 jobs, also should be on Michigan's list.
Dantonio's situation is delicate, given his success at MSU (111-54 record). He's due a one-time retention bonus of $4.3 million if still coaching the Spartans on Jan. 15. He also is set to be deposed after the season by attorneys for former staffer Curtis Blackwell, who is suing MSU for wrongful termination. There's industry talk of MSU finding a permanent athletic director, which complicates a coaching transition. But Dantonio's future is a popular topic right now.
Assuming Dantonio is not back, MSU would have an interesting candidate pool. Fickell has the exact same profile as Dantonio --- former Ohio State defensive coordinator who then became Cincinnati's head coach. He's also very close to Dantonio. Would MSU pursue Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi, Dantonio's longtime defensive coordinator? If the school breaks from the Dantonio tree and seeks an offensive jolt, coaches like Minnesota's Fleck (started his career at Western Michigan) and Syracuse's Dino Babers make sense.
If MSU sticks with defense, Cal's Justin Wilcox is a good option. Wilcox loved his time in the Big Ten at Wisconsin. Top defensive coordinator candidates who could fit at MSU include Oklahoma's Grinch, LSU's Dave Aranda, Texas A&M's Mike Elko and Wisconsin's Jim Leonhard.
SEC coaching chaos as four jobs -- Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Ole Miss and, yes, Auburn -- all open
Expect at least one of these jobs to open. Back-to-back years without a coaching change in the SEC would raise the question: Does it really mean more? I wouldn't expect four firings, but a combination of poor finishes, rising emotions and deep-pocketed boosters can rapidly change the landscape.
Auburn is in a category of its own when it comes to coaching impulsiveness, but if the Tigers finish 8-4 or worse, the school's power brokers might be willing to pay Gus Malzahn's massive remaining guarantee (more than $27 million).
The problem for Auburn could be finding a Malzahn replacement who would wow the fan base and, more important, get Nick Saban's attention. Clemson's Venables knows how to beat Alabama but has never led a program. Cristobal is an elite recruiter who has Oregon rolling and spent time at Alabama with Saban. He could be a fascinating hire on the Plains.
Lane Kiffin would be the ultimate troll hire for Auburn against Saban and Alabama, but the Lane Train hasn't been moving quite as well the past two seasons.
Vanderbilt, Arkansas and Ole Miss probably would have some candidate crossover, but also distinct targets. Arkansas would do everything it could to land Malzahn if Auburn lets him go. Norvell, who nearly got the job two years ago, would be a very good choice. The school also could pursue Boise State's Harsin, who spent the 2013 season as Arkansas State's coach, or Washington State's Leach. Appalachian State coach Eliah Drinkwitz, who is from the state, is a good option down the list.
I'm told former Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher is a potential target for Vanderbilt. Fisher remains popular in Nashville, and new Vanderbilt athletic director Malcolm Turner wouldn't hesitate to make a nontraditional hire. Other options include Notre Dame defensive coordinator Clark Lea, a Nashville native who played at Vanderbilt, as well as Clemson's Elliott, Tulane coach Willie Fritz, Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo, Ole Miss defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre (his dad, George, coached Vanderbilt from 1979 to 1985), and LSU DC Aranda.
In addition to Norvell, Ole Miss probably would consider Louisiana-Lafayette's Billy Napier and UAB's Bill Clark. Helton spent a decade at Memphis and could fit here if USC fires him. Former North Carolina and Southern Miss coach Larry Fedora, currently an offensive analyst at Texas, might be a candidate at Ole Miss or even Mississippi State -- if Moorhead returns to the Northeast. Fedora still has many ties in the state.
Week 9 notes
No. 5 Oklahoma falls to rival Kansas State on the road, as the Wildcats hold on to win 48-41 behind a huge performance from QB Skylar Thompson.
• Most teams that fall behind Oklahoma 17-7 can never catch up. Kansas State responded by outscoring the Sooners 34-6 during the second and third quarters Saturday.
The Wildcats kept one of the nation's most dangerous offenses out of the end zone for nearly 35 minutes and held on to stun Oklahoma 48-41. Kansas State dominated time of possession (38:08).
"We talked about, 'Don't worry about the scoreboard, just worry about attacking the next play,'" Kansas State first-year coach Chris Klieman told me Saturday afternoon. "We were controlling the line of scrimmage. We kept thinking, if we can continue to do that, we'd have a chance to make some plays. We just thought we had to run the football, period."
And run the Wildcats did. Kansas State had 213 rushing yards and six touchdowns -- its most since 2016 against Baylor. Klieman credits the return of senior running back Jordon Brown (63 yards in 12 carries), who had been out since Sept. 28. Running back James Gilbert led the Wildcats (105 yards, and a touchdown), and quarterback Skylar Thompson had four rushing touchdowns in 13 carries.
Thompson also had a solid day passing (213 yards), finding nine different receivers, as Kansas State held a 2-0 edge in takeaways.
"I just love the kid," Klieman said. "He's such a competitor. He made a ton of plays today. It was fun to watch. He was in complete command and complete control. To not turn the ball over against that defense, that's a big-time performance. We ran Skylar a little bit more, especially in the red zone, something we hadn't done.
"We just knew we had to hit it from all angles: inside run, outside run, play-action, five-step, three-step. We had to do a little bit of everything."
Klieman, who won four FCS national titles at North Dakota State between 2014 and 2018, led Kansas State to its first home win against Oklahoma since 1996.
"The biggest thing is just to believe that you can win, to believe if you come out every day to try to get better, it's going to pay off," Klieman said. "We know we're seven games into our tenure. We're hoping and striving to get better every week."
• For most Power 5 programs, bowl eligibility is neither the goal nor the destination. Indiana sees it that way, too, but after consecutive 5-7 finishes, and with only three bowl appearances since 1993, six wins matters.
Especially when the Hoosiers needed only eight games to get there.
"Just being brutally honest, it is a relief," coach Tom Allen told me Saturday night. "You get to five wins, and it's a big, big gorilla hanging on your back. Everybody talks about, 'Oh, you can't do this.' To get that, it's becoming a nonissue. Now we can talk about winning No. 7."
Indiana's progress showed Saturday at Nebraska. The Hoosiers twice saw leads disappear before pulling away behind quarterback Peyton Ramsey (351 yards, two touchdowns) and dynamic wide receiver Whop Philyor (14 receptions, 178 yards).
Ramsey, the 2018 starter who lost his job to Michael Penix Jr., has led IU to its past two wins.
"He didn't transfer, he stayed with us," Allen said. "It's not normal these days. Guys usually just bolt. It speaks to his character, his toughness, the kind of person he is. I'm just so proud of him to be rewarded."
Offense is fueling Indiana's first three-game Big Ten win streak since 1993. For the first time in team history, the Hoosiers have scored 30 points or more in seven of their first eight games. First-year coordinator Kalen DeBoer has become one of the nation's best under-the-radar hires.
"He allows us to be a tempo team at times, but also be a ball-control team at times," Allen said. "He does a great job manipulating formationally and schematically the defenses that we're getting each week. It's been a big impact."
• Most old-school defensive coaches accept that passing and points drive the game more than ever before. Even Nick Saban has grown accustomed to Alabama winning 59-31 instead of 21-3.
But there's one holdout: San Diego State's Rocky Long. The Aztecs have scored more than 27 points once in eight games. They rank 114th nationally in yards per game, 122nd in yards per play, 108th in passing and tied for 110th in scoring.
They're also 7-1. The formula doesn't change for Long and San Diego State, which is 46-16 since 2015.
"We would like to be able to score 35 and 45 points," Long told me Sunday. "That would probably make us win more games. But the idea is we're going to play teams that have superior talent to us, and the way to give you a chance to win is to keep the ball away from them."
The Aztecs are the kings of keep-away, ranking fourth nationally in average possession time. They also take care of the ball, ranking second nationally in turnovers (four) and fifth in turnover margin (plus-10). They've scored special-teams touchdowns the past two games.
Paired with Long's signature defense -- SDSU is third in rushing defense, eighth in scoring defense, 12th in total defense -- and it's enough. The Aztecs know exactly who they are, and it translates on the field.
"It's defined in recruiting," Long said. "The players in our program are honest with the guys that we're trying to recruit. They understand how we do things and what we expect, and they relay that, so most of the time, we get guys who know what to expect when they get here."
Long on Saturday won his 50th Mountain West game at San Diego State, to go along with 39 at New Mexico. He downplays how much his conference knowledge helps the Aztecs, but the results are undeniable. San Diego State is 5-0 on the road, best in the FBS, and tied with Clemson for the most road wins (17) since the start of the 2016 season.
"We're still very inconsistent," Long said, "but right now, we're able to make a play when we need to."