We are officially under six months until the 2020 college football season kicks off, as we will see Notre Dame take on Navy in Dublin, Ireland. So, what better way to fill that time than to take a look at the top players returning to college football at every position, starting with the quarterbacks.
While many great quarterbacks will be leaving the college ranks for the NFL this April, a very talented bunch is set to return for the upcoming 2020 season. Using a combination of PFF grades and PFF's wins above average (WAA) metric, we present to you the top 10 quarterbacks returning to college football in 2020, as well as a sleeper to watch out for.
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson Tigers
Seeing Lawrence at the top of this list shouldn't really be a surprise. He was one of just two quarterbacks to produce an elite 90-plus overall grade in each of the past two seasons (Tua Tagovailoa was the other), and he did it as true freshman and sophomore. Back in 2018, the Clemson signal-caller shattered PFF college records by posting a 90.7 PFF grade, the highest PFF grade we have ever given to a true freshman quarterback, while his 1.42 WAA was six-tenths of a win more than any other first-year quarterback in the PFF college era.
Lawrence got off to a rocky start in 2019. His two lowest-graded games of the season came within the first three weeks, and he was ranked 62nd in PFF grades by the end of Week 3. However, Lawrence found his groove, and from Week 4 until the end of the season, he earned a grade that ranked behind only LSU's Joe Burrow.
There's not much Lawrence doesn't already do at a high level; his pocket presence, ability to create outside the structure, decision-making, mobility and clean-pocket play are already at (or near) elite status. He's one of just two quarterbacks to produce a turnover-worthy play rate (PFF's lowest-graded throws) and big-time throw rate (PFF's highest-graded throws) that both rank among the 10 best since 2018. In other words, Lawrence has rarely given the defense an opportunity to make a play on the ball, and he has routinely dropped dimes on the opposing defense.
2. Justin Fields, Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State's Fields didn't get enough credit for the season he put together in his first full season at the college level due to Burrow's incredible Heisman-winning campaign.
Fields' 92.5 passing grade and 1.66 WAA ranked behind only Burrow, although, granted, there was a large gap between the two. On passes that traveled 10 or more yards downfield, Fields produced the third-highest rate of "accurate plus" passes (i.e., perfectly placed passes), according to PFF's QB charting system. While he did see a lot of open throws thanks to his receiving unit and Ohio State's offensive scheme, Fields' PFF grade under pressure and when he scrambles outside the pocket both ranked among the 10 best in the country, which shows he's more than capable of holding his own when things don't go his way.
3. Jamie Newman, Georgia Bulldogs
Most don't recognize the magnitude of Newman opting to transfer from Wake Forest to Georgia, but it's massive. The Bulldogs, who already own a top-10 roster in terms of WAA, now have not only the clear-cut best quarterback in the SEC, but a top-three returning college football quarterback overall who is ready to start in the fall.
Newman's situation at Wake Forest wasn't ideal. It was an RPO-heavy offense that emphasized Newman's athleticism and rushing ability, when it should have prioritized his arm talent. Not to mention, he had to suffer through a receiving unit that just couldn't separate, as over 54% of his pass attempts in 2019 were thrown into a tight window, a mark that was 5 percentage points higher than the next closest quarterback.
Still, Newman overcame that and produced a tight-window passing grade that ranked behind only Burrow, and he also generated the sixth-lowest rate of uncatchable passes thrown. Georgia will also get an added bump in its deep-passing attack with Newman, as he once again ranked behind only Burrow in passing grade on 20-plus yard throws, a metric in which Jake Fromm failed to crack the top 30.
4. Sam Howell, North Carolina Tar Heels
Remember when I mentioned that Lawrence had the best true freshman season we have ever seen from a quarterback? Well, the second-best true freshman season we have ever seen from a quarterback came from Howell in 2019.
Howell, the 120th-ranked recruit in the 2019 ESPN 300, finished the season as the 10th-most valuable quarterback in college football. He owns a cannon for an arm at just 19 years old, and it showed throughout the season; his 21 deep passing (throws 20-plus yards downfield) touchdowns were the second-most in the country, and six of those went as far as 40 yards downfield. With Howell leading the charge, the Tar Heels are a team to watch in 2020.
5. Tanner Morgan, Minnesota Golden Gophers
Morgan emerged on the college football landscape as a redshirt freshman in Week 8 of the 2018 season. However, he didn't particularly make the greatest first impression, as he ended up the season with a PFF passing grade that ranked 104th in the nation. Yet he bounced back and earned the eighth-ranked passing grade (89.4) in 2019.
Morgan's improved pocket presence was apparent in 2019. After inviting 14 pressures on 178 dropbacks in 2018 (think of him holding onto the ball too long or drifting into the path of a rusher, etc.), Morgan invited only 16 pressures on 367 dropbacks in 2019. On top of that, he produced the second-highest pressured passing grade in the country, trailing only Burrow.
Morgan was also one of the country's top signal-callers on a throw-for-throw basis when kept clean from pressure. He produced a positively graded throw percentage that ranked first among all quarterbacks who are set to return to college for the 2020 season. That bodes well for the young Minnesota quarterback.
6. Sam Ehlinger, Texas Longhorns
While Texas football isn't quite back -- as some thought it would be -- Ehlinger has improved in every season of his collegiate career and will very likely give the program the quarterback play they need to get back to elite status.
After a subpar true freshman campaign in 2017 that resulted in a 66.4 overall grade, Ehlinger posted an 85.7 grade in 2018 and a 90.2 grade in 2019. He ranked among the 10 most valuable college football players in each of the past two seasons, while his two-year overall grade from 2018-19 ranks behind only Burrow, Lawrence, Tagovailoa and Nathan Rourke.
7. Brock Purdy, Iowa State Cyclones
Expectations were reasonably high for Purdy entering the 2019 season, as he produced an 88 passing grade in his nine game appearances as a true freshman in 2018. Although he didn't quite play up to those expectations in 2019, he still recorded a solid 81.8 passing grade on the year while earning the 18th-most WAA at his position.
Purdy has been excellent on plays that allow him to throw in rhythm (think of releasing the ball at the very top of his drop, plays where he's not forced to hold on to the ball or wait for a receiver to generate separation). His negatively graded throw rate on such plays was the best among FBS quarterbacks last year, while his uncatchable-pass rate on such throws was the third-lowest mark in the nation.
He remains calm when things go as planned, but Purdy seems to collapse some when something starts to go wrong. Most of Purdy's biggest mistakes came when he was trying to create outside the structure (e.g., undesigned pass attempts from outside the pocket), and he actually produced the second-most turnover-worthy throws on those kinds of plays last year. If he cleans that up, he might find himself with a higher rank by season's end.
8. Dustin Crum, Kent State Golden Flashes
If I went up to 100 random college football fans and asked them who the three highest-graded quarterbacks were last season, most would get the top two in Burrow and Fields. However, few would get the third, as that third signal-caller was none other than Kent State's Crum.
Crum replaced Woody Barrett in Week 2 of the 2019 season and displayed some of the best decision-making in the country, as only 0.7% of his passes were deemed to be "turnover-worthy," the lowest mark in FBS. But don't forget he can be a dangerous threat as a runner, too. On both designed attempts and scrambles, Crum broke 32 tackles and recorded 32 explosive runs on 134 carries last year. He could certainly improve on his pocket presence some, but he clearly has the accuracy and decision-making to succeed again in 2020.
9. Layne Hatcher, Arkansas State Red Wolves
Considering Hatcher was once highly coveted by Alabama coach Nick Saban, it shouldn't have come as a surprise to see him perform as well as he did in 2019.
After spending a year with the Crimson Tide, Hatcher transferred to Arkansas State, where he didn't take the field as the starter until Week 5. Removing passes behind the line of scrimmage (i.e., passing air yards are less than 0), Hatcher owned the second-highest rate of "accurate plus passes," and he produced the third-best PFF passing grade in the nation on throws targeting vertical routes outside the numbers.
10. Kedon Slovis, USC Trojans
Most of the quarterbacks on this list are precise passers. After all, accuracy is the most important trait for a top-tier quarterback to own. That said, the most accurate quarterback on this list is none other than Slovis.
As a true freshman, Slovis had the lowest rate of uncatchable passes thrown when throwing 10 or more yards downfield. Yes, that's right, he even outperformed Burrow in this regard, as the LSU passer came in second. If it weren't for the numerous fumbles (eight) and turnover-worthy plays (21, 15th-most in the FBS), Slovis would be a lot higher on this list.
Sleeper: Michael Penix Jr., Indiana Hoosiers
For the first time in a long time, the quarterback room at Indiana was looking fantastic in 2018, with Peyton Ramsey and Penix standing at the forefront. As a unit, the Hoosiers ranked 14th out of the 130 FBS offenses in terms of PFF passing grade (the program's highest rank before that was 36th in 2015). Unsurprisingly, Ramsey then announced his intent to transfer as Penix seemed to set to regain the starting position with a clean bill of health. Both were top-25 quarterbacks in terms of PFF grade in 2019, so while Indiana lost the security blanket that comes with a great backup, they still have a top-tier starter in Penix.
He only appeared in six games in 2019 due to injury, but he showed his future promise on the field. Penix didn't qualify for a rank due to his limited snap count, but he produced a big-time throw rate that would have ranked 15th and a turnover-worthy play rate that would have ranked fifth. He may check the accuracy and decision-making box, but he also checks the pocket presence box; he invited only two pressures on his 165 dropbacks last year, and just one of his 38 pressured dropbacks resulted in a sack. His limited sample size kept him out of the top 10, but Penix is one of the most slept on quarterbacks in college football at this moment, and he could very well end up in the top 10 if he continues from where he left off just a season ago.