The college football offseason is largely about looking ahead, to both the near and the distant future. The future power rankings cover both.
Everyone's favorite ESPN+ offseason franchise is back, beginning with the quarterback position. In the coming weeks and months, I'll examine offenses, defenses and overall team projections for the next three seasons. The rankings cover the 2020, 2021 and 2022 seasons and consider current players, incoming recruits (both signed and committed) and the likelihood of underclassmen entering the NFL draft.
The top-25 breakdowns are primarily personnel-based, but they also factor in coaching and its impact on certain positions and units. For example, since Ryan Day joined the Ohio State staff, he has mentored three record-setting quarterbacks -- J.T. Barrett, Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields -- and a future Heisman Trophy winner at another program (Joe Burrow). Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley has produced two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray) and a Heisman runner-up (Jalen Hurts) in the past three seasons. The trend lines there are impossible to ignore, especially when projecting the quarterback outlook.
Let's get started with the first top-25 rundown.
1. Clemson Tigers
2019 ranking: 1
Returning starter: Trevor Lawrence
Scouting the Tigers: The national championship game didn't go well for Clemson or for Lawrence, but the team's outlook at quarterback remains very bright. Barring a setback or a surprise, Clemson gets Lawrence for one more year before he enters the NFL draft as the projected No. 1 overall pick. Through two college seasons, Lawrence has 6,945 passing yards, 66 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 26 starts. Although Lawrence's performance against LSU showed room for improvement, he's more than capable of capping his college career with his first Heisman Trophy and his second national title.
Despite losing backup Chase Brice to transfer, Clemson is well positioned for 2021 and 2022 after signing D.J. Uiagalelei, ESPN's No. 1-ranked pocket passer and No. 43 overall player in the 2020 class. The 6-foot-5, 243-pound Uiagalelei looks like a capable successor to Lawrence, although Clemson also has redshirt freshman Taisun Phommachanh, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2019.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
2019 ranking: 7
Returning starter: Justin Fields
Scouting the Buckeyes: Day is revolutionizing the quarterback position at Ohio State, a program long known for producing elite running backs, defensive backs, linebackers and linemen. Haskins and Fields have passed for 8,104 yards and 91 touchdowns the past two seasons, and both won Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors. Fields' 2019 stats would have won him the Heisman in almost any season, but Burrow, another former Buckeyes QB, proved too dominant. Another year under Day should help Fields develop even more, as Ohio State tries to return to the playoff.
Fields is a strong candidate to enter the 2021 NFL draft, creating some uncertainty for the final two years of the evaluation window. Ohio State signed two ESPN 300 quarterbacks in C.J. Stroud, ESPN's No. 2 pocket passer in the 2020 class, and Jack Miller (No. 16 pocket passer).
3. USC Trojans
2019 ranking: 18
Returning starter: Kedon Slovis
Scouting the Trojans: Slovis' unexpected emergence last season changes and improves the outlook here. Although USC certainly wanted to sign Bryce Young, Slovis could lead the offense through 2022 after a record-setting debut. Slovis set the Pac-12 single-season completion percentage record (71.9). He finished in the top 10 nationally in completion percentage, pass efficiency, passing yards and completions per game. Slovis once again will work under coordinator Graham Harrell this fall.
The concern here isn't so much Slovis but what happens at USC beyond 2020, because head coach Clay Helton remains on the hottest of seats. USC brings back 2018 starter JT Daniels, who will be back this summer from an ACL injury. Matt Fink, who replaced Slovis against Utah and led USC to a win over the eventual division champs, also is back with two years of eligibility left.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide
2019 ranking: 3
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Crimson Tide: The post-Tua Tagovailoa era in Tuscaloosa always was going to be interesting, but two developments last fall added to the intrigue. In September, Bryce Young flipped his commitment from USC to Alabama and then had a huge senior season, becoming ESPN's highest-rated 2020 quarterback recruit and the No. 5 player nationally. Young could be the transcendent talent to carry Alabama's offense through the 2022 season.
But Alabama also returns Mac Jones, who passed for 1,172 yards and 13 touchdowns with two interceptions in four starts in relief of Tagovailoa. Jones has two years of eligibility left and enters the spring with an experience edge on Young and Taulia Tagovailoa. Alabama also benefits from finally keeping an offensive coordinator, Steve Sarkisian, who will oversee the competition entering the 2020 season.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
2019 ranking: 2
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Sooners: No coach has done more with transfer quarterbacks than Riley. Can he replicate the magic with quarterbacks he recruited to OU? If redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler wins the job, as many expect, and performs to expectations, Oklahoma will thrive for at least two more years. The Phoenix native was ESPN's top dual-threat quarterback and No. 29 overall player in the 2019 class, and boasts a Mayfield/Murray-like skill set.
Rattler will compete this spring and summer with sophomore Tanner Mordecai, an ESPN 300 pocket passer in the 2018 class. OU's long-term future looks secure as it added Chandler Morris, ESPN's No. 7 dual-threat quarterback in the 2020 class and the son of Auburn offensive coordinator Chad Morris. As long as Riley is in Norman, the Sooners will be among the nation's best at quarterback.
6. Texas Longhorns
2019 ranking: 6
Returning starter: Sam Ehlinger
Scouting the Longhorns: Texas is a bit tricky to project beyond 2020 because the coming season seems so pivotal for Tom Herman and the program. After a disappointing 2019 season, Herman hired two new coordinators, including Mike Yurcich, who helped Fields become a national star in his only season in Columbus. Yurcich inherits a much more accomplished player in Ehlinger, who enters his senior season with 8,870 career passing yards and 1,530 career rushing yards, as well as 93 touchdowns (68 pass, 25 rush). Despite some midseason struggles in 2019, Ehlinger enters the fall as a national awards candidate.
The post-2020 picture includes Casey Thompson, who again will back up Ehlinger this fall, and two acclaimed incoming recruits in Hudson Card and Ja'Quinden Jackson. Both ranked among ESPN's top 40 recruits in the 2020 class.
7. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2019 ranking: 9
Returning starter: Ian Book
Scouting the Irish: No one seems to be talking about Notre Dame, which won 11 games last season and returns a two-year starter in Book. Although Book wasn't nearly as accurate in 2019, he threw 15 more touchdown passes than his 2018 total and has 57 entering his final season in South Bend. He's very close with new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who coached the quarterbacks the past three seasons, and could take a big step in his development.
Backup Phil Jurkovec transferred to Boston College, leaving redshirt freshman Brendon Clark and incoming freshman Drew Pyne, an ESPN 300 recruit, to compete this offseason. The excitement is building for 2021 recruit Tyler Buchner, No. 50 in the ESPN Jr. 300 rankings. Few in South Bend would be surprised if Buchner ends up succeeding Book in 2021.
8. Florida Gators
2019 ranking: 16
Returning starter: Kyle Trask
Scouting the Gators: Dan Mullen is doing his thing, upgrading a quarterback position with a player (Trask) whom many overlooked early in his career. Last season, Trask stepped in for the injured Feleipe Franks and completed nearly 67% of his passes for 2,941 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, as Florida went 11-2 and won the Orange Bowl. Trask should be even better in his final season.
The Gators also will continue to use sophomore Emory Jones, who accounted for seven touchdowns (three pass, four rush) in 2019 and projects as the team's future quarterback. Anthony Richardson, an ESPN 300 selection in the 2020 class, enrolled early and even participated in some bowl practices. Florida also has a commitment from Carlos Del Rio, ranked No. 89 in the ESPN Jr. 300.
9. North Carolina Tar Heels
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Sam Howell
Scouting the Tar Heels: Pegged as the first significant recruit of Mack Brown's second act in Chapel Hill, Howell did not disappoint during an incredible freshman season. The ACC Rookie of the Year set an FBS true freshman record with 38 touchdown passes, the third most in ACC history. He finished 10th nationally in pass efficiency (160.3) and had multiple touchdown passes in all 13 games, with three or more in each of the final five contests. North Carolina gets Howell for at least two more seasons.
There's not much proven experience behind him, although Jace Ruder likely would have played more in 2019 if not for a September knee injury. North Carolina also brings in ESPN 300 quarterback Jacolby Criswell, a longtime target of offensive coordinator Phil Longo.
10. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Spencer Sanders
Scouting the Cowboys: There's a lot to like here, especially in the short term, as Sanders returns for his second full season as the starter and has national rushing leader Chuba Hubbard and 2018 Biletnikoff Award finalist Tylan Wallace at his disposal. The Big 12 Freshman of the Year set an Oklahoma State freshman record with 2,065 pass yards, while averaging 57.1 rushing yards per game. He'll work with his third offensive coordinator in as many years, although Kasey Dunn has been on the staff for a decade.
Although Sanders is draft-eligible after 2020, he seems like a strong candidate to remain through at least the 2021 season. The next man in line likely will be Shane Illingworth, ESPN's No. 7 pocket passer and No. 166 overall player in the 2020 class. Illingworth has enrolled and will be on the field this spring.
11. Georgia Bulldogs
2019 ranking: 4
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Bulldogs: Georgia's quarterback outlook has slipped since the team topped these rankings back in 2018. Jake Fromm's departure to the NFL draft, while not shocking, adds some uncertainty, although Georgia fans are justifiably excited about two newcomers: transfer Jamie Newman and coordinator Todd Monken. Newman, who started 16 games the past two seasons at Wake Forest, left a secure situation there to improve his NFL stock. Last season, he had 2,868 pass yards, 574 rush yards and 32 touchdowns (26 pass, six rush) in a delayed RPO scheme with some unique elements. Newman is the heavy favorite to start in 2020.
A competition then will include Stetson Bennett, D'Wan Mathis, Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff, a 2021 commit who changed his pledge from Oklahoma. Vandagriff, whom ESPN ranks No. 24 nationally among juniors, is the highest-rated prospect of the group.
12. Penn State Nittany Lions
2019 ranking: 14
Returning starter: Sean Clifford
Scouting the Lions: Clifford might not be Trace McSorley, but he's solid and could be even better in his second season as the starter. In 2019, he passed for 2,654 yards and 23 touchdowns while adding 402 rush yards and five scores as Penn State went 11-2. New offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca worked wonders with Minnesota's Tanner Morgan last fall and could help Clifford develop into a national star the next two seasons.
Ciarrocca also inherits an intriguing piece in sophomore Will Levis, a powerful runner who has growth potential as a passer. Redshirt freshman Ta'Quan Roberson and Michael Johnson Jr. are down-the-line options, and PSU recently signed an ESPN 300 quarterback in Micah Bowens.
13. Texas A&M Aggies
2019 ranking: 13
Returning starter: Kellen Mond
Scouting the Aggies: Mond didn't have the massive season some expected in 2019. He displayed his dual-threat brilliance in wins over Oklahoma State, Mississippi State, South Carolina and others (even in a loss to Alabama), but struggled against national championship game participants LSU and Clemson. Texas A&M's schedule lightens a bit in 2020, but coach Jimbo Fisher needs more out of his three-year starter in the biggest moments.
Texas A&M has options, especially for 2021 and 2022, in redshirt freshman Zach Calzada, redshirt sophomore James Foster and incoming freshman Haynes King, ESPN's No. 3 dual-threat quarterback and No. 46 overall player in the 2020 class. A strong year in Fisher's system could set up King to succeed Mond. The team also has a commitment from ESPN Jr. 300 Eli Stowers.
14. Baylor Bears
2019 ranking: 23
Returning starter: Charlie Brewer
Scouting the Bears: Brewer is such a fun player to watch, and his final season as Baylor's starter could be the best yet. His health is a concern, as concussions have become part of his story. But he has started 30 games and enters the fall with 7,742 career passing yards, 51 touchdowns and 18 rushing touchdowns the past two seasons.
New offensive coordinator Larry Fedora brings a strong profile of producing quarterbacks, which should help not only Brewer but also younger players like sophomore Gerry Bohanon and redshirt freshman Jacob Zeno, who helped rally Baylor and force overtime in the Big 12 championship against Oklahoma. Bohanon and Zeno both were ESPN 300 recruits and seem like good options to cover 2021 and 2022, although new coach Dave Aranda and Fedora will add depth.
15. LSU Tigers
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Tigers: LSU is one of the tougher teams to project. There's no way the Tigers would be left out again, even though Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow departs after one of the greatest individual seasons in college football history. But there's real mystery here, from the quarterbacks themselves to new passing game coordinator Scott Linehan, back in college football for the first time since 2001 (Louisville). Redshirt junior Myles Brennan finally gets his chance after backing up Burrow the past two seasons. Brennan, who has added mass to his frame, will be throwing to Biletnikoff Award winner Ja'Marr Chase and other talented targets. He could lead the offense through 2021.
But there are other options, including redshirt freshman Peter Parrish and incoming freshman Max Johnson, both top-150 recruits. The biggest factor is how committed LSU remains to the offensive structure that allowed Burrow to truly flourish.
16. Iowa State Cyclones
2019 ranking: 15
Returning starter: Brock Purdy
Scouting the Cyclones: Iowa State disappointed in 2019, finishing 7-6 after being picked third in the Big 12 preseason poll. But Purdy wasn't the problem, as he passed for 3,982 yards (up from 2,250) and 27 touchdowns (up from 16), despite losing his top wide receiver and top running back from the 2018 team. He set 18 team records, including single-season passing, passing touchdowns, completions (312) and 300-yard performances (6). He enters his junior year as one of the nation's most productive quarterbacks. The question here is whether Purdy plays one or two more seasons in Ames.
Iowa State's top two 2020 recruits are quarterbacks in Hunter Dekkers (ESPN's No. 9 pocket passer) and Aidan Bouman (ESPN's No. 17 pocket passer). Both will compete to back up Purdy this fall and succeed him in a year or two.
17. Minnesota Golden Gophers
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Tanner Morgan
Scouting the Gophers: Morgan became one of the surprise stories on arguably the nation's most surprising team in 2019. He set team records for passing yards (3,253), touchdown passes (30) and completion percentage (66%) as Minnesota won 11 games for the first time since 1904. He has two years of eligibility remaining and seems likely to remain with the Gophers through the 2021 season. Although Morgan must adjust to a new playcaller in Mike Sanford, he has Rashod Bateman, the 2019 Big Ten Receiver of the Year, at his disposal for at least one more season.
Redshirt sophomore Zack Annexstad, who competed with Morgan for the starting job last summer before a foot injury, remains on the roster for now and provides good insurance. Redshirt freshmen Cole Kramer and Jacob Clark look like options for 2022, and Minnesota has a commitment from ESPN Jr. 300 QB Athan Kaliakmanis.
18. UCF Knights
2019 ranking: 25
Returning starter: Dillon Gabriel
Scouting the Knights: UCF has become the Group of 5's Oklahoma, as whoever plays quarterback immediately becomes a star. The latest: Gabriel, who passed for 3,653 yards and 29 touchdowns with seven interceptions as a true freshman last season. Gabriel replaced the injured Darriel Mack Jr. and had 10 games with multiple touchdown passes, while avoiding an interception in six of his final seven games. He could lead the offense through 2022, although UCF ideally wants more insurance behind him.
Redshirt junior Darriel Mack Jr. has 131 pass attempts and 110 rushes the past two seasons and will be a capable backup for Gabriel. The wild card is McKenzie Milton, who is intent on returning from a devastating leg injury he suffered in November 2018. Milton passed for 8,683 in his first three seasons. Incoming freshman Parker Navarro is UCF's highest-rated 2020 recruit and provides a solid option in a year or two.
19. Oregon Ducks
2019 ranking: 10
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Ducks: A drop-off is likely after the departure of Justin Herbert, a four-year starter and a projected first-round NFL draft pick. But the Ducks are also entering a new phase on offense with coordinator Joe Moorhead, who worked wonders at Penn State and surprisingly was available after two seasons at Mississippi State. Tyler Shough's long wait to play ends, as the redshirt sophomore likely will start for multiple seasons and potentially the next three. Shough, an ESPN 300 recruit in 2018, had three touchdown passes on 12 completions last season.
If Shough struggles, Oregon has options after signing two ESPN 300 quarterbacks -- Robby Ashford and Jay Butterfield -- in the 2020 class. Butterfield, ESPN's No. 11 pocket passer, has enrolled early and will compete this spring alongside Shough and Cale Millen. Oregon beat out several SEC schools for Ashford, an Alabama native and ESPN's No. 8 pocket passer in the 2020 class.
20. Arizona State Sun Devils
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Jayden Daniels
Scouting the Sun Devils: ASU is a team on the rise, and Daniels might be the biggest reason. He showed great poise and toughness as a true freshman starter in 2019, passing for 2,943 yards with 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions in 338 pass attempts. He didn't throw an interception in his final five games and had a 3-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio four times in a five-game span late in the year. Daniels should be one of the best quarterbacks west of Oklahoma if he adjusts to new coordinator Zak Hill and a largely new-look receiving corps.
Daniels could cover ASU through 2022, although there's no depth right now, and the Sun Devils' coaches must make some recruiting gains at the position. Sophomore Ethan Long is the only other scholarship quarterback on the roster.
21. Louisville Cardinals
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Micale Cunningham
Scouting the Cardinals: Scott Satterfield is building something in Louisville, which rode Cunningham and a big-play pass offense to eight wins in Year 1 of the new regime. Cunningham completed 62.6% of his passes for 2,065 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first season as the starter. He has two years of eligibility remaining and will target top receiver Tutu Atwell (18.4 YPC, 12 touchdowns) for at least one more year.
Cunningham's health is a concern, given his injury history, but Louisville has some insurance with fifth-year senior Jawon Pass and sophomore Evan Conley, who appeared in seven games last season and could be in the mix to start in 2021 and 2022. Louisville also signed Tee Webb, a three-star prospect in the 2020 class. He's enrolled and participating in spring practice.
22. Wisconsin Badgers
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Jack Coan
Scouting the Badgers: Wisconsin's inclusion might spark some blowback, especially from Badgers fans who love to complain about quarterback play. Although Coan's limitations showed in some of Wisconsin's biggest games, he still delivered a strong 2019 season, ranking seventh nationally in completion percentage (69.6), tied for 18th in pass efficiency (151.8) and ninth in ESPN's total QBR (82).
He's a solid option in 2020, although Graham Mertz's development could change the timeline. Mertz, the highest-rated quarterback recruit in team history, solidified himself as Coan's backup and completed 9 of 10 pass attempts in two games last fall. ESPN's top pocket passer and No. 21 overall player in the 2019 class certainly looks like Wisconsin's top option for the 2021 and 2022 seasons, if not sooner.
23. SMU Mustangs
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: Shane Buechele
Scouting the Mustangs: After a 10-win breakthrough in 2019, SMU is in great shape for the short term as Buechele returns for his final college season. The Texas transfer shined under Sonny Dykes and Rhett Lashlee last fall, passing for 3,929 yards and 34 touchdowns, while completing 63% of his passes. Buechele will target Reggie Roberson Jr. and others in an offense designed to put up big numbers.
SMU's quarterback future beyond 2020 is a bit murky. Terrance Gipson still has four years of eligibility left after completing all three of his pass attempts in two games last fall. The team has a commitment from Preston Stone, No. 61 in ESPN's junior rankings. Transfers are always an option for SMU, which has arguably worked the portal better than any Group of 5 school.
24. Michigan Wolverines
2019 ranking: 12
Returning starter: No
Scouting the Wolverines: A good-but-not-good-enough stretch under coach Jim Harbaugh underscores Michigan's glaring need for an elite quarterback. While Ohio State and Penn State are producing record-setting players, Michigan is still searching for a superstar under center.
Perhaps it will be Dylan McCaffrey or Joe Milton, who will compete for the top job after Shea Patterson's departure. Both have a year of experience with coordinator Josh Gattis, although McCaffrey saw more game action in 2019. McCaffrey has two more seasons of eligibility and brings a true dual threat to the backfield. Milton boasts a huge arm, though, and some both within and outside the program peg him as the quarterback with the highest ceiling. He has three years of eligibility left.
If neither player pans out, Michigan has a commitment from J.J. McCarthy, ESPN's No. 2 junior quarterback and No. 23 overall player.
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs
2019 ranking: Not ranked
Returning starter: None
Scouting the Bulldogs: The Mike Leach factor is impossible to ignore. Washington State led the nation in passing in four of Leach's final six seasons as coach, producing standouts like Luke Falk and Gardner Minshew II. Replicating those numbers in the SEC West will be a challenge, but Leach usually finds a way.
His first quarterback in Starkville likely will be K.J. Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford and an NFL prospect who passed for 3,540 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2018 before an injury-plagued 2019 season.
Leach also inherits Garrett Shrader, who started four games as a freshman last fall, as well as veteran reserve Keytaon Thompson, Jalen Mayden (ESPN 300 recruit in 2019 class) and freshman Will Rogers, whom Leach recruited at Washington State before making the move. Even if Leach ultimately needs QBs who better suit the Air Raid, his ability to find and develop them is unmatched.