College football teams are turning the page to the 2020 season. For several of the sport's historic programs, the urgency to improve is greater than ever. We are examining four teams that have fallen on hard times and diagnosing what each needs to do to get back on track this fall.
After breaking down USC and Nebraska, we put Florida State under the microscope. The Seminoles won the final BCS championship in 2013, but they've backslid during the CFP era, while ACC rival Clemson is on a historic streak. Florida State is 18-20 in the past three seasons, and Willie Taggart lasted only 21 games on the sideline before a cash-strapped athletic department fired him in November.
There's genuine optimism in Tallahassee with new coach Mike Norvell in town, but Florida State has to improve its roster and its recruiting efforts to avoid falling further behind Clemson. Here's a look at the Seminoles and what it will take for them to get back to the championship stage under Norvell.
Recruiting
Florida State had the No. 3-ranked recruiting class in 2014, moved up to No. 2 in 2015 and then had the top-ranked class in 2016. The Seminoles were consistently landing top-five classes under Jimbo Fisher and had recruiting rolling until he left.
Taggart's first class as Florida State head coach was ranked 11th and his second fell all the way to No. 22, a stark contrast to the top-ranked classes the Seminoles had gotten used to. It seemed as though there would be no improvement in what would have happened if Taggart had not been fired after only two seasons.
The staff went two recruiting classes without landing a quarterback, which is unheard of at the FBS level given how important the position is. Some programs are signing two quarterbacks in one class, and Taggart and his staff hurt the depth at quarterback by not signing someone in either the 2018 or 2019 class.
Taggart had Sam Howell committed, but Howell flipped to North Carolina shortly after Mack Brown was hired as the Tar Heels head coach. The Seminoles had two quarterbacks committed in the 2017 class with James Blackman and Bailey Hockman, but Hockman eventually transferred to NC State. Malik Henry was signed in the 2016 class, but he is no longer part of the program. Essentially, Florida State had only one quarterback on the roster from four recruiting classes.
No matter the perception, that's unacceptable.
For most programs, a class ranking of 11 and 22 wouldn't be terrible, but considering the success Florida State has seen, that's not good enough -- especially considering what Clemson has done on the recruiting trail lately.
The Seminoles' 2019 class is top-heavy and has some good prospects, but there just aren't enough of them to kick-start the type of turnaround Florida State needs.
Norvell had his hands full, taking over just a few weeks before the early signing period. The first order of business was landing a quarterback in this class, and Norvell was able to get two. ESPN 300 quarterback Chubba Purdy and three-star Tate Rodemaker both signed with the Seminoles, giving the quarterback room a huge boost.
The staff added in some transfers and junior college prospects to try to get some immediate help, especially at running back with transfer Jashaun Corbin, junior college prospect La'Damian Webb and ESPN 300 recruit Lawrance Toafili.
Norvell and his staff did a good job filling other needs, including offensive line, but it's going to take some time to restock the roster and retool it to what Norvell wants. The coaches are on the right track by signing two quarterbacks in 2020, and they already have quarterback Luke Altmyer committed in 2021.
In fact, Norvell has already gotten a good jump to the 2021 class with five commitments on board, including linebacker Branden Jennings, the No. 48-ranked recruit overall. That commitment was a good sign for what could be ahead with this 2021 class and beyond.
Norvell is a young, energetic coach who had a lot of success at Memphis. If he's able to blend a style of recruiting with landing recruits who fit his style and can make an impact right away, he has a good shot at turning the roster around.
This 2021 class will be of the utmost importance because we have seen how important the second recruiting class can be for new coaches. There is still a lot of excitement around the new hire, and Norwell will need to capitalize and sell prospects on turning around a powerful program.
What coaches are saying
Coaches view Florida State a lot like USC and, to a lesser extent, Nebraska: a program that should never approach mediocrity or struggle to compete for conference championships. Even adjusting for Clemson's incredible run under Dabo Swinney, Florida State is seen as a place where coaches can recruit and win at the highest levels.
"It's a top-10 job in the country," a Power 5 coordinator said. "Any time you're the second-best team in your conference, it's an elite job."
Like they did with USC, coaches attribute Florida State's recent slide to weakened line play, especially on offense. Few position groups at high-profile programs recently have drawn more criticism than Florida State's offensive line, which began to slip under Fisher and continued to regress in Taggart's brief tenure. FSU brought in established line coaches Greg Frey (who played for the Seminoles' 1993 national championship team) and Randy Clements, but the group continued to look like a sieve.
Since 2016, Florida State has allowed 152 sacks, tied for sixth-most in the FBS and more than all but two Power 5 teams (Louisville and Syracuse). FSU ranks in the top 15 (really bottom 15) in sack fumbles (18), percentage of plays for zero or negative yards (36.2) and other key categories during the same span. Coaches say any improvement under Norvell starts with the offensive line. Alex Atkins, who spent last season as Charlotte's offensive coordinator, is viewed as a strong choice to oversee FSU's front five.
"Up front, they'll be below-average, but they should be able to survive," an ACC assistant said. "That's the group [to watch], but their O-line coach is really good."
Coaches loved running back Cam Akers, labeling him as FSU's most consistent offensive threat in recent years. Akers is gone to the NFL draft, creating a need for new stars in Norvell's big-play offense.
Although FSU's potential on offense hinges on improved line play, the Seminoles also must get more out the quarterback position, a mystery entering Norvell's first spring practice session. Blackman has started two seasons for two different coaching staffs -- 2017 (Fisher) and 2019 (Taggart) -- with mixed results, throwing four interceptions against Arizona State in the Sun Bowl, his most recent performance. Purdy and Rodemaker both should have a real opportunity to win the job.
"He's not bad, he does some good stuff," a Group of 5 coordinator said of Blackman. "If they could get a guy who could run, they'd be way more dangerous."
FSU received a nice boost when leading receiver Tamorrion Terry returned. Terry, who had 1,188 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 2019, provides a proven target for whoever is calling signals this fall. Norvell's offense is masterful at generating big plays with multiple players. Five of Memphis' top six receivers in 2019 averaged more than 15 yards per reception. Damonte Coxie, Memphis' top receiver the past two seasons, averaged more than 16 yards per reception while eclipsing 70 receptions in both 2018 and 2019.
Coaches note FSU's talent at wide receiver, but the group needs to produce in 2020. Terry and Ontaria Wilson form a nice tandem, and Warren Thompson, Keyshawn Helton and others have the ability to stretch the field. Norvell's track record with running backs is very strong, which could be good news for a player like Khalan Laborn, ESPN's No. 36 overall recruit in 2017, who had 63 carries playing behind Akers last fall.
"This is a system that's built for playmakers," Norvell told me last season. "We've got the versatility within it to be able to showcase all their skills and talents. We want to be able to create angles and big plays. Whether it's RPOs, the shots downfield, even run checks, being able to create the best leverage that we can, it all goes hand in hand."
Although Norvell is known for exciting offense, FSU's path to immediate success could be on defense. The two-deep is filled with four- and five-star prospects, and new coordinator Adam Fuller has a great centerpiece in tackle Marvin Wilson, who surprised many by returning for his senior season. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. previously ranked Wilson as the nation's No. 25 draft-eligible prospect.
Other key contributors return, like safety Hamsah Nasirildeen (team-high 101 tackles, three forced fumbles, two interceptions in 2019), cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (team-high 14 pass breakups) and linebackers Amari Gainer and Emmett Rice.
An interesting element to watch is how Norvell's offense impacts the defense. Last season, coaches thought Kendal Briles' fast-paced offense exhausted Florida State's defense during games. FSU's opponents ran 130 more offensive plays in 2019. Memphis' opponents ran seven more plays last season, although the Tigers' defense was on the field for seven fewer plays per game than FSU's defense.
"When you run all those plays, that's what happens," an ACC coordinator said. "You're out on the field in 30 seconds if they go three-and-out. Eventually you're going to wear out."
Coaches like the Norvell hire and expect FSU to improve in 2020. How much depends on the quarterback spot, adjustment to scheme changes and an ability to navigate a tricky opening schedule that includes West Virginia in Atlanta and a trip to Boise State.
"They've got to win enough this year to get momentum," an ACC coordinator said. "They can't lose by 20 or 30 to Clemson again. People need to feel like they're starting to get back."