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ESPN Senior Writer- College football reporter; joined ESPN in 2008. Graduate of Northwestern University.
College football teams are turning the page to the 2020 season. For several of the sport's historic programs, the urgency to improve is greater than ever. During the next two weeks, we're examining four teams that have fallen on hard times and diagnosing what each needs to do to get back on track this fall.
Few traditional powers have fallen further than USC, which has won a combined 13 games over the past two seasons and is nowhere near the championship-caliber teams it used to produce. Recruiting rankings are down, play on the field has been subpar and the path to turn things around won't be easy.
There has been something of a shake-up with the assistant coaches -- and even the athletic director -- to try to turn the program around, but the question is whether it's too little, too late. To try to diagnose what needs to be done, we spoke with coaches and analyzed past and current recruiting rankings to look at how USC can get back on track.
Recruiting
The health of a program can often be traced back to recruiting, and that is certainly the case for USC. The Trojans landed the No. 5-ranked class in 2017, followed by No. 7 in 2018, but then experienced a sharp drop-off in 2019, finishing No. 19 in the class rankings.
That number fell even further in the current 2020 class: USC is not ranked within the top 50 -- astonishing considering the number of high-end recruits that come out of California.
Looking at those rankings, the in-state prospects tell most of the story of why there is a sharp drop and where USC needs to improve.
In 2019, there were 33 in-state recruits ranked in the ESPN 300, but only five ended up committing to USC. Oregon raided the state, grabbing a commitment from the No. 1 overall prospect in defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux and landing No. 2 in-state recruit Mykael Wright.
Oregon ended up signing more ESPN 300 recruits from California in that class -- six -- than USC did, and the Trojans had only two commitments from prospects ranked in the top 20 of their own state. The raiding of California by out-of-state schools has been a problem for USC over the past two classes, as 24 of the 33 ESPN 300 recruits left the state in 2019, and 19 of 22 went out of state in 2020.
The 2020 class marked a low point, with USC getting a commitment from just one ESPN 300 recruit. That was after quarterback Bryce Young, the No. 5 prospect overall and the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback, flipped his commitment from USC to Alabama.
To get USC back on track, the staff needs to regain control over the state, and it needs to happen quickly. Schools like Clemson, Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, LSU and others are having a lot of success recruiting the area, and USC needs to stop that bleeding. The coaches are off to a better start in 2021 with four ESPN Junior 300 commitments, but the No. 1-ranked recruit in the state, five-star defensive end Korey Foreman, recently announced his commitment to Clemson.
Part of what needs to change to keep prospects home is a shift in the philosophy and resources allocated to recruiting. The new athletic director, Mike Bohn, spoke about making drastic changes. One of those changes needs to be in developing a recruiting department, adding more staff in that area to help combat the competition coming into California.
The drop in talent in recruiting hasn't yet started to show up on the field for USC, which might be part of a bigger problem if the staff can't get the high-end recruits back in the fold.
What coaches are saying
Talent isn't the issue at USC. Even after a historically bad recruiting class, Pac-12 coaches rate USC's overall talent at the top of the league. Every year. The 2020 season, and coach Clay Helton's future, always hinged on a large group of returning starters, a promising sophomore quarterback in Kedon Slovis and much-needed changes on the staff, highlighted by Todd Orlando's arrival as defensive coordinator.
"Once they get back rolling, that's the easiest job in America," a Power 5 offensive coordinator said.
Coaches say USC's challenge is getting more out of its talent at certain positions, especially offensive and defensive line. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell's scheme is pass-reliant -- USC threw on 56.7% of its offensive plays in Harrell's first season and generated 74% of its yards through the air -- so linemen aren't asked to bully opponents much, even though they're capable.
The offensive line will be very experienced in 2020, although USC must replace starting tackles Austin Jackson and Drew Richmond. Running back also should be a more productive position, as the team's four primary ball carriers return, led by seniors Vavae Malepeai and Stephen Carr. Harrell isn't going to start calling Student Body Right, but if the line develops, USC's production won't be as lopsided.
"When they want to run it, they can," a Pac-12 defensive coordinator said. "Kenan Christon, when he hits a seam, no one's catching him. And they have Carr back. He ended the season running like he did two years ago, before his [ankle] injury."
An even bigger group to watch is the defensive line, and really the entire unit, now under Orlando's control. For USC to truly break through in 2020, the defensive front must be a major strength, as junior Jay Tufele and sophomore Drake Jackson both have superstar potential. There's good depth here with Marlon Tuipulotu, Caleb Tremblay and Brandon Pili, among others, so USC has a chance to improve its numbers against the run, on third down and with negative-yardage plays. The Trojans need more discipline up front to contain ball carriers and prevent the busts that occurred much too often the past few years.
"They had some Greek gods playing on the defensive line," a Pac-12 offensive line coach said. "I thought the toughest one was [Tufele], and the rest of them, they just looked pretty."
Orlando is undoubtedly Helton's biggest offseason addition, a proven coordinator who became one of the nation's highest-paid assistants before one subpar year at Texas. His tough-minded approach and aggressive scheme -- "he's got a little riverboat gambler in him," another Power 5 defensive coordinator said -- could be exactly what USC needs to play cleaner and better on defense.
Another critical hire is the replacement for John Baxter as USC's special-teams coordinator. Special teams have been a major problem at USC, which finished 104th in special-teams efficiency in 2019, a drop-off from 73rd in 2018 and 18th in 2016.