Thanksgiving week always serves up an appetizing selection of rivalry games. The College Football Playoff provides the garnish.
The Iron Bowl, The Game and Bedlam carry massive implications for teams and fans, but this week, they also impact CFP contenders and will help shape the final top four. The battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe has extra intrigue with Minnesota, a surprise CFP contender, getting a shot to defend the axe against Wisconsin for the first time since 2004. Michigan, Auburn, Oklahoma State and Wisconsin all can end or damage their rivals' playoff chances.
With rivalry week kicking off, I talked to coaches to help break down The Game, as well as what to expect in the Iron Bowl, Bedlam and the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe.
The Game: No. 2 Ohio State at No. 13 Michigan, noon ET Saturday
A month ago, this matchup looked like a total mismatch.
Michigan had no clear offensive identity under first-year coordinator Josh Gattis. The Wolverines were committing turnovers and other miscues at alarming rates. Although Don Brown's defense held up well, the unit's aggressiveness had led to busts in losses to Wisconsin and Penn State. Ohio State, meanwhile, was dominating every opponent, thanks to a dramatically improved defense and an offense clicking behind quarterback Justin Fields.
The Buckeyes' train hasn't slowed down much, but Michigan seems to be catching up. Since halftime of the Oct. 19 loss to Penn State, the Wolverines have outscored their opponents 180-52.
"Really, the first half of the season, they were struggling," a Big Ten coach told me. "They couldn't get anything going and [quarterback Shea Patterson] kept making mistakes, costly ones. But the last three or four weeks, they've really turned it on. They've looked like a million bucks."
Michigan eclipsed 24 points just three times in its first seven games, while committing 14 turnovers (nine lost fumbles, five interceptions), averaging less than 4 yards per carry and failing to record a run longer than 18 yards in all but one contest. In the past four games, the Wolverines are averaging 41.5 points.
What changed?
"From a schematic standpoint and Josh calling it, nothing has really changed," tight ends coach Sherrone Moore told me last week. "The elimination of turnovers these past games are very evident. It's hard for any person calling the game to deal with all of those turnovers. The calls were the same. It was all about the execution part of it."
Patterson faces Ohio State following two signature passing performances: 384 yards and four touchdowns against Michigan State, and 366 yards and five touchdowns against Indiana. Moore said the run-pass option elements in Gattis' scheme fit Patterson, whom he called "such a good decision-maker."
"He can take a game over, and they've got the long receivers," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. "That's the scary part."
Wide receiver is starting to become the strength many thought it would be under Gattis, who coached the position at Alabama, Penn State and Vanderbilt. Ronnie Bell and Nico Collins have emerged as Patterson's top targets, along with Tarik Black and Donovan Peoples-Jones.
Michigan needs its passing game to be on point against an Ohio State defense that doesn't resemble the unit that last year allowed 67 plays of 20 yards or longer, tied for 95th in the FBS. The Buckeyes come in leading the nation in points allowed and yards allowed. The transformation has occurred mostly with the same players from 2018, which underscores both the talent present and important changes by new co-coordinators Greg Mattison and Jeff Hafley. According to Hafley, those changes targeted individual development and building confidence rather than X's and O's.
"Rather than overteach scheme, we've overtaught fundamentals and techniques," Hafley recently told me. "It's easy for us coordinators to say, 'Hey look at this exotic blitz and this exotic coverage, and look at me do all this crazy stuff.' That's where we've been different, whether it's been tackling or covering or getting off blocks or understanding leverage or using their hands or reading things.
"It's more important to us than saying, 'Hey, look at me, I just designed this great scheme.'"
The Buckeyes will look to pressure Patterson with end Chase Young, who starred in his return from suspension against Penn State (three sacks, four tackles for loss). Michigan's offensive line doesn't blow away opposing coaches -- "They're not elite," a Big Ten defensive coordinator said.
"His get-off, his pass-rush ability, his hips, his speed, his violence with his hands, how hard he practices," Hafley said of Young. "He's as good of a pass-rusher as I've seen, ever."
Michigan's defense must find ways to reach Fields, and ideally force mistakes from a first-year starter who has only one interception in 252 pass attempts. Until Saturday's fumble fest against Penn State, Fields' only weakness had been taking sacks. Michigan has 28 sacks in its past seven games after just seven in the first four contests. Penn State's talented defensive front seven couldn't stop Ohio State's run game, and Michigan must find better results there.
The Wolverines also are playing at home, where they haven't lost since The Game in 2017.
"They're playing better, it's at Michigan and it will be a competitive game," a Big Ten coach said. "I just think Michigan's not quite to the caliber of Ohio State. I don't see anybody that can beat them."
The Iron Bowl: No. 5 Alabama at No. 15 Auburn, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Alabama enters Jordan-Hare Stadium likely needing to not only beat its rival, but do it convincingly. Lacking a playoff-worthy résumé, the Tide must show the selection committee that they look like a top-four team even without star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Backup Mac Jones has performed well in low-pressure situations -- Arkansas, second half against Mississippi State, Western Carolina -- recording 604 pass yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He now faces one of the nation's best defenses in Auburn, which held LSU to a season-low 23 points (LSU averages 48.6). Auburn ranks in the top 10 nationally in points allowed, yards per play allowed and third-down conversion percentage.
"Alabama's still loaded at receiver," a Power 5 offensive assistant said, "so as long as you've got those dudes, if [Jones] can be halfway decent, they're better than Auburn, I think, even without Tua."
While it's important for Alabama's offense to look like it did before Tagovailoa's injury, the Tide likely will lean more on the run game. Najee Harris is quietly averaging 6 yards per carry with multiple touchdowns in five consecutive games. Backup Brian Robinson Jr. has been solid (426 yards, five touchdowns).
"They jump off the screen how hard they run," an SEC defensive coordinator said. "You want them to go sideways, similar to some of the backs they've had in the past. When they put their head down and go north and south, they're crushing folks."
Auburn will lean on its talented defense against Jones and the Tide. But a struggling offense behind freshman quarterback Bo Nix must show some life against an Alabama defense that isn't elite against the run (130.9 YPG allowed).
Nix rallied Auburn past Oregon in his collegiate debut but since has struggled in marquee games. He combined to complete just 26 of 62 passes with two touchdowns and four interceptions in losses to Florida and LSU. His numbers were better in a Nov. 16 loss to Georgia (245 pass yards, 42 rush yards, one rushing TD, one passing TD), but Auburn's offense came alive only in the fourth quarter, when the Tigers were already down 21-0.
"Auburn's just so bad on offense right now," a Power 5 assistant said. "For them to force Georgia to punt [11] times or whatever it was, and only score 14 points, that's hard to do."
Most coaches think Auburn's defense is too good to let the game get away. Auburn lost to LSU by three and to Georgia by seven, and stayed within single digits of Florida until midway through the fourth quarter.
"They'll never be outside of two possessions because of their defense," an SEC coordinator said. "It will always be a game."
Bedlam: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 21 Oklahoma State, 8 p.m. ET Saturday
The big news affecting this matchup surfaced last week, when Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders underwent thumb surgery. Backup Dru Brown, a transfer from Hawaii, started in Saturday's win at West Virginia and passed for 196 yards and two touchdowns.
Brown will start the Bedlam game, but the Sooners will be more concerned with running back Chuba Hubbard, a Heisman Trophy candidate who has 1,832 yards and 20 touchdowns, eclipsing 100 yards in all but one game.
"Their O-line and Chuba Hubbard, that's what they're built around," a Big 12 coach said. "They're [15th] in the country in rushing. They're all-in on it. I'm not saying that to downplay Sanders [being out], but I don't think it will be a huge factor."
Oklahoma State likely will follow the Kansas State method against OU and try to dominate the line of scrimmage and possession time. Chris Klieman's Wildcats had 45 rushes and held the ball for 38:08 in handling Oklahoma its lone loss.
The Sooners have averaged 51.5 points during their four-game Bedlam win streak and have scored 33 points or more in seven consecutive games against Oklahoma State. A young Cowboys defense is on the rise, allowing a total of 65 rush yards in its past two games.
"Through experience, they're playing better," a Big 12 assistant said. "They do a little bit of everything, so they're hard to play. They're different every week."
Dominant during most of the first seven games, Oklahoma has had to work much harder for wins lately. That shouldn't change in Bedlam.
"If just depends whether OU wants to play or not," a Big 12 coach said. "If they play at their best, it won't be close. If they play down, [Oklahoma State will] have a chance."
No. 12 Wisconsin at No. 10 Minnesota, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
Along with the Axe, the Big Ten West Division title is on the line at TCF Bank Stadium. But only Minnesota has a realistic path to the CFP if it can beat Wisconsin and then Ohio State in the league championship game.
The key matchup pairs Minnesota's suddenly high-powered pass offense against Wisconsin's defense, which is significantly improved from 2018 but also has struggled against big-play passing teams (Ohio State, Illinois, Purdue). Wisconsin plays a lot of Cover 1 defense, which could present problems against Rashod Bateman and Tyler Johnson, the first Minnesota tandem to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in the same season.
"They're starting to get a much better feel for the timing of the routes, especially against zone coverage," a Big Ten offensive coordinator said. "To know you have a single-high team that's playing man-free, you know the free safety can't double both of them."
Minnesota used a different formula (runs and takeaways) to dominate Wisconsin last year and finally reclaim the Axe. The Gophers also limited Jonathan Taylor's impact, which they'll need to do again as the Wisconsin running back has eclipsed 200 rush yards in each of his past three games.
"They're well coached and they're locked into details," a Big Ten assistant said. "One thing they do, whatever's going on, they stick with the same game plan."
Week 13 notes
Other than Greg Schiano breaking off talks with Rutgers, the key development in what should be a quiet coaching cycle involved a coach who -- surprise, surprise -- might be keeping his job. USC's Clay Helton could be safe after all. He delivered on the directive from new athletic director Mike Bohn to finish strong, as USC ended the regular season with three straight wins.
Industry sources say there's internal momentum to retain Helton, who is owed a lot of money. Bohn is barely on the job -- USC simply took way too long to hire an AD -- and university president Carol Folt may prefer Helton to a replacement who could bring more risk to a school that can't afford any.
What does Rutgers do now? Alabama analyst Butch Jones interviewed for the job and could be Plan B, but I'd be surprised if there aren't conversations with Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead. A more familiar setting could be ideal for Moorhead, who thrived in the Big Ten as Penn State's offensive coordinator.
Elsewhere, Arkansas is in the early stages of its search, but Washington State's Mike Leach remains an intriguing possibility there. Florida State is aiming for big names, and Penn State's James Franklin and Notre Dame's Brian Kelly are two potential targets. I heard another name Sunday: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, whose candidacy could hinge on whether the Utes make the playoff. The FSU search still could pivot toward someone like Memphis' Mike Norvell.
Boston College is a hot spot to watch as a loss would send Steve Addazio to 5-7 in Year 7. Missouri coach Barry Odom should be safe if the slumping Tigers beat Arkansas to finish 6-6. NC State has been disappointing, but I still expect Dave Doeren (18-8 the past two seasons) to return in 2020. Michigan State is worth monitoring because of Mark Dantonio's upcoming retention payment and his deposition in the Curtis Blackwell lawsuit, but it's still likely Dantonio's call if he wants to return, and he says he does.
Baylor coach Matt Rhule didn't worry about how his defense would respond against Texas, a week after a 28-3 lead slipped away in a loss to Oklahoma. The Bears' defense is senior-laden, and led by a veteran coordinator, Phil Snow, who "always tells them the truth."
"We were last or second-to-last in most defensive categories the last two years, so to me, they're a group that's really had to build themselves into this mentally tough group," Rhule told me Sunday. "They held Texas out of the end zone for 59 minutes and 25 seconds. They're just a special group, a very mature group."
Two years after losing 38-7 to Texas at McLane Stadium, Baylor forced punts on the first five Longhorns possessions. Texas had four possessions reach Baylor territory that resulted in zero points. The Bears won 24-10 to advance to their first Big 12 championship game.
Fast starts are a hallmark for Baylor, which prevented a first-quarter touchdown for the 10th time in 11 games and has allowed only 54 first-half points all season. But unlike in the Oklahoma game, Baylor finished strong. Texas' first four possessions after halftime resulted in two punts, two turnovers on downs and a Sam Ehlinger interception to Baylor cornerback Grayland Arnold.
"We just knew we had to stay fresh until the end of the game," Rhule said.
Baylor's complementary style is working in the Big 12, for years an offense-centric league that has been much more balanced this season. Rhule said Baylor players have had to adjust to playing great defense regardless of the score.
"Early in the year, they were always looking at the offense," Rhule said. "Finally, those guys were saying, 10-7, 17-14, 7-3, that's not ugly football, that's great defense. That whole mindset, they finally bought it halfway through the year."
Cal's struggles on offense and especially at quarterback are hard to miss, even amid the progress under coach Justin Wilcox. But the Bears needed their offense, and quarterback Chase Garbers, to rally past Stanford on Saturday and reclaim the Axe for the first time in a decade.
Cal erased two fourth-quarter deficits behind Garbers, who threw a touchdown pass and had the game-winning scoring run with 1:16 left.
"Fitting," Wilcox told me Sunday. "That's been us. It hasn't always been very pretty."
Garbers finished with 357 yards of offense. The sophomore propelled Cal to a 4-0 start before injuring his shoulder Sept. 27 against Arizona State, the first of four straight losses for the Bears. Garbers missed the next four games.
"When he's been healthy, he's shown improvement. You just see the comfort in the offense," Wilcox said. "Even [Saturday], there were some plays we didn't quite make, but he had some really gutsy plays in terms of running the ball and scrambling and getting some tough yards."
Wilcox said Cal showed no panic despite being behind four times to its rival. The win made the Bears bowl-eligible for the second straight year, moving them closer to Wilcox's vision of a top developmental program.
"Ultimately, I want this to be a place where you see a lot of juniors and seniors playing," Wilcox said. "I'd like to redshirt as many guys as possible. For our program, that's the best thing. You're talking about offensive and defensive lines, guys you can redshirt and grow and develop. Even the skill players, you get them in here and learn the systems.
"Having the details down, that's just the difference for us."
Air Force coach Troy Calhoun cites no magic ingredient in his team's turnaround this season after consecutive 5-7 campaigns. The Falcons on Saturday improved to 9-2 for the first time in Calhoun's tenure after doubling up New Mexico 44-22.
Calhoun told me on Sunday that the challenges at the Academy remain daunting. Air Force isn't the biggest or strongest team, and its margin for error is razor-thin. But the Falcons are winning in the margins again, through better execution on both sides of the ball.
They are the only team to rank in the top three in the Mountain West in both scoring offense (35.6 points per game) and scoring defense (21 PPG). They lead the league in rushing by a wide margin (304.4 YPG), but also showed passing prowess against New Mexico, producing two 100-yard receivers (Geraud Sanders and Ben Waters) for the first time since 2004.
"We want to be one of the most efficient teams in the country as far as throwing the ball," Calhoun said. "We're the smallest team in college football. We don't have a single 300-pounder on the offensive line. To be realistic, holding up in pass protection, we aren't going to do that here. That doesn't mean there aren't some games where maybe you hit a couple of big balls down the field."
A win this week against Wyoming would put Calhoun in sole possession of second place on the school's all-time coaching victories list (97). But Calhoun doesn't have much time for reflection at a job he considers one of the toughest in the FBS.
"Around here, you're always grinding," he said.