Ohio State and Wisconsin visited the state of Illinois this weekend as heavy favorites, just needing no surprises to set up a major matchup in Columbus.
Ryan Day's Buckeyes, like they have all season, delivered dominance without drama against Northwestern. Paul Chryst's Badgers, unlike they have all season, cratered in all three phases during a historic loss at Illinois.
Wisconsin's stumble shifts the spotlight toward Ohio State, which continues to look like the nation's most complete team. While the Buckeyes' sheer talent and depth stands out, their steady approach to games and goals could be their strongest trait.
"I've never been to the playoff," Buckeyes star defensive end Chase Young said after Ohio State's 52-3 win at Northwestern. "Every year, we had a fluke loss. I'm just real focused. I tell them every day, 'One game can get us out and make us not get to where we want to be.'
"I'll laugh when the job is done."
There were no laughs in Wisconsin's locker room after a 24-23 loss to Illinois, but the Badgers must regroup before facing Ohio State. After watching Ohio State and Wisconsin within a 24-hour span, here's my deep dive into the upcoming matchup. I also break down the two other key contests on the Week 9 slate: Auburn-LSU and Notre Dame-Michigan.
No. 13 Wisconsin (6-1) at No. 3 Ohio State (7-0)
Everyone who has scouted Ohio State -- from opposing coaches to the horde of NFL scouts and general managers who showed up Friday at Northwestern -- emerges with the same view: The Buckeyes are loaded. A scout told me that both Young and cornerback Jeff Okudah project as top 10 picks in the 2020 NFL draft.
The offense is filled with future pros, including a young quarterback gaining confidence every week.
"A different level of talent," a Big Ten coach said.
Upgrades at linebacker and in the secondary under new assistants Greg Mattison, Al Washington and Jeff Hafley continue to propel a transformed Buckeyes defense, which has allowed no more than 10 points in the past six games.
"A lot better on defense," a Big Ten offensive assistant told me. "That Okudah is ridiculous. He's lockdown. So they're going to put him on [Quintez] Cephus and put everybody else on Jonathan Taylor. The matchup of that game will be Wisconsin's defense against Ohio State's offense. If they can make those guys question what they're doing, maybe they can confuse Justin Fields."
No one has truly flustered Fields so far. The signal-caller arrived at Ohio State with a reputation for interceptions, but he has been picked off once in 164 pass attempts, while completing 70.7% of his throws with 22 touchdowns. Day told me after the Northwestern game that Fields belongs in the Heisman Trophy discussion. Against Northwestern, Fields converted four third downs of seven yards or longer in the first half, as Ohio State pulled away in the second quarter.
"He had great poise, he handled himself well in the pocket, he threw some away that he had to, he scrambled on some early," Day said. "If he can keep building on this, then he has a chance to be special."
A Big Ten head coach told me Ohio State has done a good job of scheming for Fields, rarely putting him in adverse situations. J.K. Dobbins is thriving as the Buckeyes' featured back, averaging 7.1 yards per carry with 663 yards against four Big Ten opponents.
Ohio State also plays with a purpose it lacked last season. The Buckeyes' dominance in the second quarter (158-20 in scoring) is staggering. Despite relatively sluggish first quarters against Michigan State and Northwestern, Ohio State has a 231-31 edge in first-half scoring, effectively ending games before halftime.
This team has a clear mission: the College Football Playoff.
"Each week, us going into the games thinking that we've got something to prove, that's what's keeping that chip on our shoulder," Buckeyes cornerback Damon Arnette said of reaching the playoff. "Because no matter how well we're playing, we still hear the doubters. We still hear 'em. Slowly, they're turning into believers."
So, what's Wisconsin's path to an upset?
The Badgers' defense provides Fields with his biggest test, even after the unit cracked for the first time this season against Illinois, allowing touchdowns of 48, 43 and 29 yards.
Wisconsin linebackers Zack Baun and Chris Orr are excellent pass-rushers and sure tacklers, combining for 14.5 sacks, 14 quarterback hurries and 19 tackles for loss. Coaches have noticed a more aggressive approach from defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard, who recently told me, "We've been able to have a little bit higher scheme at times than some other [Wisconsin] teams, because of attention to detail and wanting the information, not just saying, 'I just want to play. Just let me play.'"
Leonhard has upgraded Wisconsin's secondary, but the Buckeyes have so many big-play threats that the Badgers can't afford to sit back and try to keep everything in front of them.
"He's going to try and confuse Justin," a Big Ten assistant said of Leonhard. "That's his best chance -- pre-snap confusion."
Wisconsin also must broaden its passing attack. Ohio State likely will replicate what Northwestern and Illinois did to limit Taylor's production by loading the box. But quarterback Jack Coan has shown obvious signs of progress this season.
He leads the nation in third-down completion percentage (80.5%), and he hit on 9 of 10 third-down throws against Illinois before being intercepted on his final attempt. Coan frequently targets tight end Jake Ferguson, who at 6-foot-5 and 246 pounds provides a potential matchup edge against Ohio State's linebackers.
"I definitely feel comfortable," Coan said. "That's my job to be able to convert on those."
Wisconsin needs to open up its playbook against Ohio State. A conservative approach for much of the Illinois game ended up backfiring.
"There are no bunches, shifting, jet motions, counter reads," a former Power 5 defensive coordinator texted me during the Wisconsin-Illinois game. "You can tell they have certain things they don't want out very often."
The Badgers need to bring out any schematic gems or they could have a long day at Ohio Stadium.
No. 9 Auburn (6-1) at No. 2 LSU (7-0)
Nothing has slowed down Joe Burrow and LSU's magical new offense. Florida brought one of the nation's better defenses to Baton Rouge and had no answers for Burrow, his receivers and their tempo. Now, Auburn takes its shot.
Gus Malzahn's team boasts one of the nation's best defensive lines, led by Derrick Brown but also featuring productive veterans such as Marlon Davidson, Big Kat Bryant and Nick Coe -- who was held out of Saturday's game at Arkansas because of a practice issue. Florida really missed defensive end Jon Greenard for most of the LSU game, and Auburn will need its front to play at an elite level to fluster Burrow, who has thrown a team-record 29 touchdown passes this season.
Auburn's ability to apply pressure is even more critical, because LSU's offense has evolved so quickly around Burrow, an incredibly smart and savvy quarterback.
"Burrow is so locked in, he knows what's coming, he knows where to go with it, there's a checklist that he has on top of whatever he has," an SEC defensive coordinator told me. "There's a lot of layers in there. Now it's very difficult to get him in a bad play. [Burrow] is the offensive coordinator on the field. It's tough to get him in the negative spot because the check is built in.
"Any play, they've got like five to six plays built in. LSU was never like that."
Auburn must counter with its own offense, starting with a better Bo Nix than the one who showed up at Florida. Nix, who threw three interceptions in the loss to the Gators, responded nicely Saturday at Arkansas with three touchdowns, no interceptions and 70.6% completions.
Although Malzahn's team misses top running back JaTarvious Whitlow, the overall run operation is looking more like it should at Auburn (239.6 yards per game, 5.21 yards per carry).
A head coach who faced LSU earlier this season recently told me, "I think when they play Auburn, the run game will give them some problems."
Several coaches have noted the creativity of Auburn's scheme since Malzahn reclaimed playcalling duties for the season. One coach noted that Auburn still is covering for a somewhat suspect offensive line.
"It's so many plays and so many formations," the coach said. "[Malzahn is] trying to do it with tricks and gimmicks and that's always been Auburn, but the guts of it is they've been able to move you off the ball. That isn't there as much."
LSU's defense took a step against Mississippi State, holding the Bulldogs to seven points until the game's final minute. It will be intriguing to see coordinator Dave Aranda's approach against the young Nix. LSU has eight interceptions in its past four games after none in the first three.
No. 8 Notre Dame (5-1) at No. 19 Michigan (5-2)
I couldn't find a coach who thought Michigan would beat Penn State on Saturday. Most thought it wouldn't be close. The Wolverines stayed true to form -- a road loss to a ranked opponent -- but they also fought back in the second half and found things that worked for a struggling offense under first-year coordinator Josh Gattis.
Michigan racked up 417 yards in the 28-21 loss. (PSU had been allowing less than 260 per game.) Wolverines quarterback Shea Patterson showed his better side during the second half, making key throws and using his legs to either gain yards or buy more time. Michigan also avoided a fumble after losing nine (fumbling 17 total times) in the first six games.
"They have big receivers, their O-line is good and the quarterback's a little streaky, but he can take games over," a Power 5 defensive coordinator told me. "When Patterson is feeling good, when he's making the right reads and getting the ball out fast, they're going to be able to put the ball into space.
"They're still just looking for an identity a little bit. They're not quite clicking, but when they do, they have the ability to put points up."
Notre Dame's defense performed very well from halftime of a Sept. 28 win against Virginia until halftime of a Week 7 win over Southern California. Although the Fighting Irish's defensive line isn't quite as deep as Penn State's, Notre Dame boasts an excellent pass-rushing tandem in Julian Okwara and Khalid Kareem (7.5 sacks, 12 quarterback hurries combined).
The Irish's offensive line, which had been suspect early in the season, showed progress against USC, as Notre Dame recorded season highs in carries (48) and rushing yards (308). Michigan's blitzing defense provides a different challenge for Ian Book and his teammates.
"They don't have all the star power they had in the past," an FBS coach said. "But they play hard. They're a good defense."
Week 8 notes
The realization came to Matt Campbell on the plane home from Baylor, as the Iowa State coach watched his team rally in an eventual 23-21 loss on Sept. 28.
"It's like, 'Man, it took us to be down 20-0 to play like we're capable of playing,'" Campbell told me Sunday.
A meeting with ISU's captains the following day confirmed Campbell's hypothesis: A roster mixed with old and young, picked third in the Big 12 after consecutive eight-win seasons, had been pressing. The Cyclones worked hard. They had great chemistry.
But in three of their first four games -- an overtime win against FCS Northern Iowa and losses to Iowa and Baylor by a combined four points -- they lacked something.
"You almost got to Saturday and the joy of playing almost went out the window and you were pressing to be perfect," Campbell said. "As much as anything, so many of our really good players are overachievers. They're guys that have worked really hard to have expectations on themselves. When you get to that point, you feel like you've got to go above and beyond. Mistakes became a little bit paralyzing at times."
No. 23 ISU has since won three straight, dominating TCU (49-24) and West Virginia (38-14) and storming to a 20-0 lead at Texas Tech on Saturday before prevailing 34-24. Quarterback Brock Purdy had 378 pass yards and three touchdowns at Texas Tech, while completing 71.9% of his attempts.
Campbell puts Purdy in the pressing-to-be-perfect category but said the sophomore recently has "been at his best" in the toughest moments. ISU's running back search might be over, as freshman Breece Hall has 315 rush yards and five touchdowns over the past two weeks.
"A really special talent," Campbell said. "His last two games have been maybe as good as any running back performances that we've had. What he's done has really settled and solidified the offense."
ISU's signature defense has performed well all season, but it also has overcome key personnel losses, including defensive end JaQuan Bailey (leg surgery) and safety Greg Eisworth (shoulder), however briefly. Zach Petersen and Braxton Lewis are among those who have stepped up.
"At the end of it, we'll see what we become," Campbell said. "The great thing is it's our choice. When your foundation is on team and togetherness, I always think it gives you a chance to reach your full potential. It's a team that has a chance to do that."
Pitt doesn't make it easy. After falling to Virginia 30-14 in the opener, the Panthers have played six consecutive games decided by 10 or fewer points.
The good news: They've won five of them, including a historic victory over UCF and consecutive road triumphs over Duke and Syracuse. Despite a season scoring ledger of 156-155, Pitt sits at 5-2 and 2-1 in ACC play, trailing only Virginia in the ACC Coastal Division.
"They just do enough to win a football game," Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi told me Saturday. "That's all they think they need to do sometimes. They give me chest pains on the sideline. But we've got enough playmakers."
Narduzzi expected Kenny Pickett to be a bigger playmaker under new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, and the junior quarterback has obliged. Although Pickett's completion rate (59.9%) is comparable to his first two years behind center, he is well ahead on his passing yards total (1,602), and with eight touchdown tosses, he likely will eclipse last year's total of 12.
Pickett has targeted Taysir Mack and Maurice Ffrench, who have combined for 91 catches and 1,033 receiving yards.
"The biggest difference between him and what he was a year ago is he understands where to go with the ball," Narduzzi said. "He's had the talent, but he knows where the coverages are and our receivers are getting open. We don't run 6,000 different plays. We run a lot of the same concepts, but our guys understand how to run that concept versus different coverages."
Equally encouraging: Narduzzi thinks Pitt's defense is starting to resemble those he coordinated at Michigan State. Led by Kylan Johnson and Jaylen Twyman, Pitt leads the FBS with 36 sacks and has 61 tackles for loss.
"Four years in, our kids know what they're doing," Narduzzi said. "We're starting to creep towards where we were. Our defense has kept us in every game, really. But our passing game with Kenny Pickett has helped us win every game too."
Week 8 was a good one for Power 5 coaches facing varying degrees of job pressure.
Illinois coach Lovie Smith finally recorded a signature win, as the Illini beat an AP top-10 team for the first time since 2007 (No. 1 Ohio State). Although most in the industry have expected the Illinois job to open, athletic director Josh Whitman boldly hired Smith in March 2016 and remains supportive of the coach. Smith still likely must get Illinois to a bowl game to return in 2020, but that doesn't seem so difficult with Purdue and Rutgers up next and other winnable games later.
Vanderbilt's Derek Mason had a huge win over No. 22 Missouri, a week after falling by 24 points to UNLV. At 2-5 this season, Mason still has work left to maintain enough support with a first-year athletic director and others.
Boston College's Steve Addazio really needed a strong home showing and got one as his Eagles dominated NC State 45-24. The remaining schedule includes only one home game (Florida State) and two trips to top-10 opponents (Clemson and Notre Dame). Addazio needs two wins to become bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season.
While the USC job is widely expected to open, Clay Helton still can win the Pac-12 South. His team continued to shine at home, crushing Arizona 41-14. The Trojans seek their first road win of the season this Friday at Colorado.