The two-team race many projected before the 2019 season is a lot more crowded now.
Defending national champion Clemson and runner-up Alabama are still very much in the CFP picture, but so are others. College football's upper crust this season is Chicago-style: thick and palatable. It is also likely to thin out over the next month, as early contenders face more tests, including some against one another.
But every top team has a potential fatal flaw, whether it's a position group, an entire unit, an unfavorable schedule or something else. Here's a look at the latest AP Top 10 teams and their potential weaknesses entering the midsection of the season.
1. Alabama (5-0)
Upcoming: at Texas A&M, vs. Tennessee, vs. Arkansas
Fatal flaw: Defensive front
The offseason buzz among coaches was that Alabama, while still incredibly talented and well coached, had lost something on defense. The first five games have validated this belief. "This is not one of Bama's better defenses," a Power 5 offensive coordinator told me.
Alabama's metrics in the defensive front seven, though not awful, are hardly Alabama-like. The Tide allow 3.66 yards per rush and 134.8 rush yards per game. From 2009 to 2018, Alabama led the FBS in yards per rush allowed (2.82, a half-yard better than that of No. 2 Michigan State) and rush yards per game allowed (89.9 YPG, 16.4 yards better than that of Michigan State).
The Tide also aren't generating much pressure, recording just 10 sacks on 5.8% of pass attempts. Linebacker Anfernee Jennings (three sacks, five tackles for loss, four quarterback pressures) has been outstanding, but who on Alabama's defensive line really scares opponents? The Tide are capable of outscoring anyone, but their less-than-elite defensive front seven could prove costly against LSU, Auburn and others.
2. Clemson (5-0)
Upcoming: vs. Florida State, at Louisville, vs. Boston College
Fatal flaw: Turnovers
Despite the Chapel Hill escape and some generally choppy play, Clemson is significantly more talented than its remaining opponents and fully capable of looking dominant. But Trevor Lawrence and the Tigers have to start taking better care of the ball. Clemson has committed at least one turnover in all five games and multiple turnovers in three contests. It has lost the turnover margin the past three games. Last season, Clemson tied for 23rd nationally in turnover margin (plus-seven), as Lawrence had only four interceptions in 397 pass attempts. He has five picks in 136 attempts this season.
Dabo Swinney's team has had slow starts and early turnover issues, even during its historic run. Deshaun Watson threw seven interceptions in the first five games of the 2016 season, which ended with a Clemson national title. But at some point, losing the turnover margin could cost Clemson, which likely can't lose a game if it is to reach the CFP.
T3. Georgia (5-0)
Upcoming: vs. South Carolina, vs. Kentucky, Florida (at Jacksonville)
Fatal flaw: Conservative schemes
Georgia is talented enough to bully most of its opponents with a power run game on offense and superlative speed on defense. That's just the way coach Kirby Smart likes it. But at some point, the Bulldogs might need to turn things loose in the passing game with veteran quarterback Jake Fromm.
Several coaches who watched Georgia's win over Notre Dame thought the Irish were the aggressors for most of the game. "They don't let their great players be great," a Power 5 coordinator said of Georgia. "You've got that quarterback. They need to let Jake Fromm be Fromm." Although Fromm is doing his part (77.5% completion, eight touchdowns, no interceptions), Georgia averages just 262.2 pass yards per game.
The odd thing is the Bulldogs are capable of stretching the field. They rank 12th nationally in average yards per pass play (9.64). They just don't pass very often. A more aggressive approach might be needed in November, when Georgia faces Florida, Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M to close out SEC play.
T3. Ohio State (6-0)
Upcoming: at Northwestern (Oct. 18), vs. Wisconsin, vs. Maryland
Fatal flaw: Offensive line
Nothing negative jumps out with the Buckeyes, who look like the most complete outfit in the country. "It's going to be hard to beat that team," a defensive coordinator who faced Ohio State recently told me. Still, the first quarter of Saturday's win over Michigan State showed potential issues with a new-look offensive line, which struggled for much of the 2018 season.
Ohio State finished the first quarter with just 16 yards in 16 plays. Although the Buckeyes broke out in the second quarter (296 yards and 24 points on 24 plays), MSU showed for a bit how to attack this offense.
The Buckeyes still face three formidable defenses: Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan. Even Northwestern has shown some saltiness. Penn State could provide the biggest test for the Buckeyes' line, as Yetur Gross-Matos is one of the nation's most talented rushers, and the Nittany Lions rotate up to 10 players on their line.
5. LSU (5-0)
Upcoming: vs. Florida, at Mississippi State, vs. Auburn
Fatal flaw: Lack of defensive playmaking
Things are different at LSU. Quarterback Joe Burrow has 22 touchdown passes and 127 completions, triggering a pass game that has Baton Rouge bewildered but joyful. LSU's scheme changes on offense, namely operating with much more tempo, have made things tougher on the Tigers' defense, which is on the field longer and more often.
But LSU's defense simply isn't making a ton of plays. The Tigers had just two interceptions in the first four games before picking off Utah State's Jordan Love three times on Saturday. They have only two fumble recoveries. LSU's pressure numbers are decent -- 13 sacks and eight quarterback hurries -- but only Neil Farrell Jr. has been consistently disruptive. The Tigers clearly miss Devin White in the middle of their defense. "Teams like Auburn will give them some real problems in the run game," an FBS coach said. "I don't think in the front seven they're elite on defense."
Saturday's game was a step forward, as LSU shut down a good Utah State offense with a very good quarterback in Love. But the Tigers will need their defense more in SEC play, as Burrow and the offense likely will slow down a bit.
6. Oklahoma (5-0)
Upcoming: Texas (at Dallas), vs. West Virginia, at Kansas State
Fatal flaw: Pass protection
Again, I'm nitpicking here with a team that has dominated its first five opponents. Oklahoma's Bill Bedenbaugh is maybe the best offensive line coach in the country (Georgia's Sam Pittman would be his main competition). The Sooners average 7.8 yards per rush and 288.4 rush yards per game with four primary ball carriers each averaging at least 7.7 yards per carry.
But look closer, and there are some mini concerns with a line breaking in four new starters. Kansas pressured quarterback Jalen Hurts early in Saturday's game, recording a sack and three quarterback pressures. The Sooners have allowed at least four tackles for loss in all five of their games.
Although Hurts' experience and elusiveness are helping an inexperienced line, this remains an area to watch when Oklahoma faces more talented defenses, beginning this week against Texas. A November stretch against Iowa State and Baylor also will test the line's ability to protect.
7. Florida (6-0)
Upcoming: at LSU, at South Carolina, vs. Georgia (at Jacksonville)
Fatal flaw: Offense on the road/neutral site
Florida announced itself to the playoff chase on Saturday with an impressive home win over Auburn. Backup quarterback Kyle Trask looked poised (234 pass yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions), and Florida again showcased its big-play ability, opening with a 64-yard touchdown pass to Freddie Swain and closing with an 88-yard Lamical Perine scoring dash. A Gators offensive line that many coaches questioned this summer got a taste of what's to come with Derrick Brown and Auburn's ferocious defensive line.
But things are about to get much harder for Trask and the Gators' offense, which faces solid defenses the next three games away from Gainesville. Florida will need its offense to keep pace with Burrow and LSU in Baton Rouge. Although the Gators should handle South Carolina, the game is in Columbia, where Will Muschamp's team nearly shut out Kentucky last week. Florida then faces Georgia, which hasn't allowed more than 17 points in a game this season.
Defense travels, and Florida's should keep every upcoming game within reach. But the Gators will need an offense with mostly middling numbers to be better than average away from home.
8. Wisconsin (5-0)
Upcoming: vs. Michigan State, at Illinois, at Ohio State
Fatal flaw: Quarterback play
The Badgers are back to playing elite-level defense, and their offensive line has returned to form, clearing lanes for superstar back Jonathan Taylor. Quarterback Jack Coan is showing improvement, completing 74.6% of his passes, a 14.2% increase from 2018. Coan has made smart decisions, throwing only one interception (and seven touchdowns) on 114 attempts.
But the competition will get better soon, and opposing defenses likely will follow the blueprint of Northwestern, which contained Taylor (119 yards on 26 carries) and flustered Coan, who averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt with an interception and no touchdowns. Wisconsin's defense (14 points) outscored its offense (10 points) in the Northwestern win.
When the Badgers face opponents with decent to good offenses and defenses capable of replicating Northwestern's plan -- Ohio State, Iowa, Michigan State, even Minnesota -- they will need Coan to do more under adverse conditions.
9. Notre Dame (4-1)
Upcoming: vs. USC, at Michigan (Oct. 26), vs. Virginia Tech
Fatal flaw: The weak remaining schedule
Notre Dame showed at Georgia that it could stack up with a playoff-caliber team on the road. A young Irish linebacker corps played better than expected. Despite a rough start to the second half, Brian Kelly's team had a chance to win in the end.
But as an independent, Notre Dame has almost no margin for error. Even with one good loss, the Irish need enough notable wins to impress the CFP selection committee. There don't appear to be many of those on Notre Dame's remaining schedule. USC already has two losses, Michigan certainly could when Notre Dame visits on Oct. 26, and Stanford has its weakest team in a while.
The ACC schedule agreement isn't helping much, either. Virginia is a solid win, but Notre Dame doesn't get Clemson or even Wake Forest to beef up its profile. The Irish certainly could finish 11-1, but will they have enough to separate themselves from conference champions and others who finish with tougher schedules?
10. Penn State (5-0)
Upcoming: at Iowa, Michigan, at Michigan State
Fatal flaw: Road schedule/young offense
Penn State's only road game so far this season couldn't have gone much better. The Lions thrashed Maryland 59-0, and quarterback Sean Clifford broke predecessor Trace McSorley's team record for first-half passing yards (287). But the road trips -- and the opposing defenses -- are about to get much harder for Clifford and a Lions offense that lost five starters from last season's team.
The grind starts this week at Iowa, where Penn State is 2-4 in its past six trips. The Hawkeyes' defensive front seven is very solid and will pressure Clifford with A.J. Epenesa and others. Penn State also visits Michigan State, another extremely talented defense. The Lions have only one win in East Lansing since 2005.
If PSU gets through Iowa and MSU, it sets up a likely Big Ten East championship game against Ohio State on Nov. 23. Penn State won in Columbus in 2008 and 2011, and its losses the past two seasons to the Buckeyes were both by a single point. But Clifford's poise and that of an offense filled with sophomores (and some freshmen) in its two-deep will be tested away from Happy Valley.
Week 6 notes
How did Cincinnati become the first defense since 2016 to hold UCF to fewer than 30 points? A perfect mix of preparation, execution and depth.
The Bearcats prepared for UCF much like they would Navy, a triple-option offense. UCF uses option principles and elements from Art Briles' Baylor offenses, leading to exceptional rushing numbers (232.6 YPG entering Friday). Cincinnati held the Knights to more than 100 yards below their average (126), allowing only one rush longer than 19 yards.
"We were very simplistic in our game plan," defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman told me. "We said if we're only going to have this amount of calls, then let's change up the looks. Let's stem the defensive line, let's show different leverages with our corners, one-high, two-high with our [safeties] and try to confuse the quarterback into, 'What are they really playing?'"
Freeman credited cornerbacks coach Mike Mickens, a former Bowling Green assistant under Dino Babers, who learned the Briles offense at Baylor. Cincinnati remained in man coverage against UCF, and cornerbacks Coby Bryant, Ahmad Gardner and Cam Jefferies combined for two interceptions and five pass breakups.
"When it's in the air, go and get it," Freeman said. "It's just as much yours as it is theirs. Don't be satisfied with a PBU."
Cincinnati used its depth to combat UCF's fast tempo, rolling four cornerbacks and eight defensive linemen. The front was a major question before the season, but Cincinnati has built around returning pass-rusher Michael Pitts.
"Our whole mantra is we're going to wear guys out, and how you do that is by rolling guys," Freeman said. "We're going to roll it in the fourth quarter, and you're going to watch the domination happen. You saw that [Friday]."
Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca didn't lose faith when quarterback Tanner Morgan threw three interceptions in a preseason scrimmage.
"He's better. He's improving," Ciarrocca told head coach P.J. Fleck. "Those mistakes are very easily correctable."
Fleck had seen the same thing, but Morgan still had to deliver. Quarterback play has hamstrung Minnesota for years and clearly needed to improve for an offense headlined by standout receivers Tyler Johnson and Rashod Bateman.
Minnesota is 5-0 for the first time since 2004, and Morgan is a big reason for that. The redshirt sophomore has 13 touchdowns, more than Minnesota's season totals in five of the past eight seasons. Morgan followed a nearly flawless performance last week at Purdue (21-of-22 passing, 396 yards, four touchdowns), with three more passing touchdowns in Saturday's win over Illinois.
He has 10 touchdown tosses in the past three games.
"He's able to anticipate things better and be more comfortable when the ball's getting snapped," Ciarrocca told me. "Quarterback's a reactionary position. If you're still thinking when the ball is snapped, you're in trouble. But if you can think soundly and productively before the ball is snapped, it can help you anticipate and react better to what you see on defense. That's where, from a mental standpoint, he's really grown in being able to think deductively."
Bateman and Johnson are thriving with Morgan, combining for 51 receptions, 887 yards and nine touchdowns.
"They help him a ton, just knowing that he doesn't have to be perfect with every throw," Ciarrocca said. "You try and throw a back-shoulder or something like that, it's difficult to hit the bull's-eye, but if you're thinking, 'I've just gotta hit the target,' that's a little easier for you as a quarterback, and you're a little bit more confident in delivering that ball."
The key hot-seat matchup of Week 6 paired two coaches -- Ole Miss' Matt Luke and Vanderbilt's Derek Mason -- who likely will be back in 2020. But Luke needed the win more and secured it, as the Rebels pulled away 31-6. Ole Miss last week appointed a new chancellor earlier than expected. A permanent athletic director is the next move, which could accelerate a decision on Luke. Vanderbilt is 1-4, and Mason must capitalize on an easier second-half schedule to ensure he's safe for 2020.
Virginia Tech's Justin Fuente scored a much-needed win at Miami, but Boston College's Steve Addazio fell short at Louisville. Boston College has only two home games left (NC State and Florida State) and still faces Clemson and Notre Dame. Despite Addazio's seven-win consistency, his situation is worth watching down the stretch.
The name surfacing most in Rutgers' search this week was not Greg Schiano but Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead, whom industry sources say athletic director Pat Hobbs would love to target. Why would Moorhead leave Starkville? He could restart his clock at Rutgers, which has lower and more realistic expectations. He also has many more ties to the Northeast.