Comparing college football's top QBs to their preseason projections

We're officially three weeks into the 2019 college football season and the data at Pro Football Focus is arriving in droves. Has Trevor Lawrence actually been struggling? Why have Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields been so dominant right away with their new teams?

Using our play-by-play grading and subsequent set of advanced statistics that come with it, we take a look at those questions, plus break down Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and how more of the nation's most noteworthy quarterbacks have fared based on their preseason projections.

Trevor Lawrence, Clemson

The offseason Heisman Trophy favorite has had a rough go of it through three games. Sure, Clemson is 3-0, but its star signal-caller has not looked anything like he did in his rise to stardom during his true freshman season a year ago. He has already thrown more turnover-worthy passes (six) on just 101 dropback attempts than he did all of last season. He has counteracted that with just five big-time throws, a middling figure among all FBS quarterbacks, and his grades show he's in the middle of the pack both in overall and passing grades so far this season.

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama

Tagovailoa has done everything the Alabama offense has asked of him through three games and the Crimson Tide sit at 3-0, looking as dominant as ever. After a thorough throttling of South Carolina in Week 3, Tagovailoa has vaulted near the top of the Heisman list as the "feed Jerry Jeudy" strategy has started paying dividends for his passing numbers. Tagovailoa will have to increase the amount of big-time throws he uncorks as the SEC slate strengthens because he only has three to date, but his safe play with the ball and ability to find his receivers in open space is unparalleled through this stage of the season.

Justin Fields, Ohio State

We at PFF liked what Fields did on his 173 snaps at Georgia in 2018, beating up on lesser competition, just as he was supposed to. Now, three games into his Buckeyes career, he has proven those 173 snaps were no fluke. After his performance against Indiana, he is the nation's highest-graded quarterback on throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, completing 21-of-30 attempts for 404 yards and seven touchdowns. How he's getting his yards through the air is another marvelous feat, as Ohio State fans became accustomed to Dwayne Haskins' dink-and-dunk style a year ago. Fields is averaging a depth of target of 11.1 yards downfield, and of his total passing yards, 77.9% of them have come through the air, while just 22.1% have come after the catch. He adds a talented skill set with his legs, as well, and the Buckeyes have to be the favorite to win the Big Ten with him manning the ship.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma

A transfer quarterback who has grasped head coach Lincoln Riley's offense at warp speed and done so with ease, Hurts has looked anything but the midtier passing quarterback on throws downfield that he was at Alabama. On throws targeted at least 10 yards downfield, he has completed 21 attempts for 546 yards and five scores, albeit throwing to open receivers more often than not, accumulating yards at a heavy clip. Throw into the fold that he's averaging 10.3 yards per carry and has 257 of his total rushing yards on designed carries from the Sooners offense, and this team suddenly becomes scary to even attempt to defend in 2019.

Joe Burrow, LSU

Burrow's performance against Texas was a sight to behold, as he carved up the Longhorns and vaulted to the top of the Heisman list in PFF's eyes. He followed that up with another big-time performance against Northwestern State, and to this point of the season, Burrow is the nation's leader in total yards (828), touchdowns (nine), adjusted completion percentage (80.4%) and completions (36) on passes targeted at least 10 yards downfield. He has picked apart opposing defenses at ease this year, and the Tigers, led by Burrow, might be the biggest threat to Alabama's reign over the SEC.

Jake Fromm, Georgia

Fromm has been asked to do very little so far this season as the Bulldogs have handled each of their first three opponents with ease. What he has been asked to do, however, he has done admirably and without issue. He has thrown just two big-time throws but does not have a turnover-worthy play to his credit, and his adjusted completion percentage is up there with the best in the country. It's likely he'll be tested much more in SEC play, but his strengths at this point of the season are those that are stable from week to week and season to season.

Justin Herbert, Oregon

Herbert had a rough start to the season against Auburn, but he's looked nothing like that quarterback the past two games. Granted, the Ducks have played Nevada and Montana, but the fact remains, Herbert has put forth two strong outings against inferior foes, just like he should. The only concerning factor for Herbert moving forward is that he has had seven passes dropped this season, and that's more than only Washington's Jacob Eason on this list. Herbert is smooth under pressure, just as he is from a clean pocket -- the latter, of course, being much more important as he's behind the nation's top offensive line through three weeks and will have a clean pocket to operate from more often than most other quarterbacks.

Sam Ehlinger, Texas

He may not have gotten the win against LSU to firmly state that "Texas is back," but Ehlinger did his part in the loss. To date, he has been extremely sharp with his throws and with his legs, an underrated aspect of his game. Ehlinger has fielded an adjusted completion percentage of 80.4% and has top-10 figures in touchdowns, passer rating and yards from a clean pocket this year, something that bodes well for the Longhorns in Big 12 play.

Jacob Eason, Washington

Eason and the Huskies came back down to real life when they were upset by Cal in Week 2, but they rattled off a crushing victory over Hawaii in Week 3 to set the stage for an exciting race for the Pac-12 championship. Their offense, when it's clicking, may be one of the best in the country as they've utilized play-action about as well as any team in the nation. Eason has top-20 figures in passer rating, completion percentage and yards per attempt when using play-action, clearly helping him acclimate back to a full-time starting role after not playing significant time since the 2016 season.

Khalil Tate, Arizona

Tate hasn't been as dynamic a passer this season as he was for a brief stretch in 2017, but he has certainly been back to his old standards when rushing the ball. So far this year, he has tallied 167 yards on designed carries and another 94 yards on scrambles. He leads this group here and is eighth nationally with 10 missed tackles forced on his carries. Tate is also a top-15 graded passer, unleashing seven big-time throws and compiling an average depth of target of 11.8 yards downfield. He's targeting passes past the first-down sticks on nearly 55% of his dropbacks and is doing so with relative ease as he's perhaps the nation's top dual-threat quarterback opposite Hurts.

True freshman QB update

Bo Nix, Auburn: Nix had his best game to date this past weekend against Kent State but didn't light up the stat sheet, as he's still experiencing freshman struggles despite his legend growing after the Oregon win. He'll have to tighten up accuracy issues moving forward through SEC play if the Tigers want to contend with the big dogs.