Most college football coaches rate No. 4 Washington's chances to beat No. 1 Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl as extremely low. A few, however, think the Huskies have a good chance to shock the world.
"I was sitting with a bunch of coaches last night [talking about it], and I do [think Washington can win]," an FBS head coach said last week.
The pathway toward defeating Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide is arduous and riddled with peril. But it exists. In fact, in some ways, Washington's strengths mesh advantageously with Alabama's few weaknesses.
How do you score against the Tide defense?
First things first, according to an FBS offensive coordinator, is this: "No. 1, you've got to have men who can play with their men," he said. "If you don't have a matchup for Jonathan Allen or those guys they have up front, it doesn't matter schematically what you're doing.
"That team is about the 'Joes,' more than the X's and O's. Can you match up man-to-man in the front seven and in the secondary? Can your offensive line block their defensive line, period, before you even draw up a play? Then, do you have an answer for [linebacker] Reuben Foster? They keep people off of him, and he makes play after play. But if you can get a guy to him, you can have some success."
Well, maybe. By now you've surely read a few times this season that to beat the Tide's defense, you have to take -- and hit -- shots downfield.
Alabama has trailed only twice this season, against Ole Miss and Texas A&M, and not since Oct. 22 against the Aggies. In those two games, the Tide yielded as many completions of at least 25 yards downfield as they did in their other 11 games combined.
Ole Miss and Texas A&M hit seven of those 10 deep throws for 278 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. That, at least, suggests a potential vulnerability.
Arkansas joined the Rebels as the only two teams that produced more than 300 yards of offense against the Tide, and they both did it with at least 400 yards passing.
"They are a good secondary, but it's not always that they are covering people great," an FBS offensive coordinator said. "They are a zone secondary. The thing that gets you, is your quarterback is not going to be able to hold the ball a long time, so you can get guys open in those zones."
It just so happens that Washington QB Jake Browning has been superb throwing the deep ball. He ranks second in the Power 5 in completion percentage, touchdown passes and Total QBR on throws of at least 25 yards downfield. Further, since Nov. 1, Browning's seven touchdown passes on 25-plus-yard throws are tied for most among Power 5 QBs.
Of course, Alabama knows this, and it knows that Browning wants to connect with speedy receiver John Ross.
"If John Ross is not a factor, I don't know how they move the ball," the coordinator said. "Josh Ross is a special player. He'll be the fastest receiver Alabama has faced. He's a 4.28 guy. What he did to [USC CB] Adoree' Jackson? I've never seen anyone do Adoree' like that."
While Browning will try to spread the ball around -- No. 2 receiver Dante Pettis is no slouch -- Ross is the sort of game-breaker who can stress the Tide defense. That means coach Chris Petersen and his staff, with extra time to prepare, will need to be creative in countering whatever bracket coverage Alabama uses on Ross.
Said an FBS head coach, "I don't see [Chris Petersen] and his staff saying, 'We're going to seven-step drops and sit in the pocket.' They're going to have a plan to move [Browning] around and do some things to keep them off-balance. They will show them a whole bunch of abnormal things, which Petersen is very good at and his team is comfortable doing. They'll create some space and opportunities on the offensive side."
Part of opening up the downfield passing game -- and keeping Browning safe -- is running the ball. That, well, won't be easy.
Excluding sacks, Alabama is allowing just 91.8 yards rushing per game and 3.3 yards per rush. Both numbers rank first in the nation.
Perhaps surprisingly, you're better off running inside. The Tide yield 3.6 yards per carry inside the tackles and just 2.9 yards per carry outside the tackles. For the sake of comparison, the second-best team defending the outside run gives up 4.2 yards per carry.
"I don't think they will be able to run the ball; they'll need to make Alabama miscommunicate on the back end and take shots," another offensive coach said. "I don't see a college football team, from what I've watched, that can consistently line up and run the ball well enough to win against Alabama."
That stout run defense extends to opponents trying to use a short, controlled passing game and screens to replace a running game. The Tide yield just 3.5 yards per receiver screen.
Make life difficult for Jalen Hurts
What about defending Alabama, which has been nearly as dynamic and dominant on offense this year as on defense, with coordinator Lane Kiffin using the dual-threat skills of true freshman Jalen Hurts as a weapon like no previous Tide QB?
We wish we could offer up something truly creative here, but the key to slowing down the Tide offense is pretty straightforward: Stop the run, and force Hurts to throw from the pocket.
Hurts is a good passer, particularly when you consider his age, but he rates 29th out of 60 qualified Power 5 QBs in QBR on pass attempts.
Putting Alabama in second-and-long is key. In many of Alabama's worst offensive games, such as those against LSU, Kentucky and Western Kentucky, it averaged less than 3.6 yards per rush on first down.
"They can hold their own against Alabama's offense," a defensive coach said. "[Washington] will miss those two guys [defensive end Joe Mathis and linebacker Azeem Victor, who are both out with injuries], but they're big enough to go at it up front with a very good Alabama line, and that secondary is as good as anyone's."
Said an FBS head coach, "I think defensively they're better than people think. And I'm not saying people don't think they're good, but they're better than good."
Alabama isn't great at keeping pressure off Hurts. Tide QBs were under duress on 28 percent of their dropbacks this season, which ranks 45th among Power 5 schools. Washington gets pressure on 31 percent of opponent dropbacks, which ranks ninth among Power 5 schools.
That leads into a critical measure: turnovers. Washington forced an FBS-high 33 turnovers this year. Hurts had 14 total turnovers, which was tied for third-most in the SEC this year.
So if Browning connects with Ross a handful of times downfield, the Huskies generate a bit of an inside running game to keep the Tide defense honest and the Washington defense slows the run and forces Hurts to make mistakes passing, the Huskies can win this thing.
No problem.
The FBS head coach optimistic about the Huskies' chances was unbending: "I expect it to be a close football game. I don't think Alabama will be able to wear them out."