NEW YORK -- There was a near consensus about Baylor's hiring of Matt Rhule from administrators, coaches and agents gathered for the annual National Football Foundation Hall of Fame dinner.
Great hire for Baylor. Strange choice for Rhule.
Born in New York, Rhule went to high school and college in State College, Pennsylvania, and spent the majority of his career in the Northeast, including the past four seasons as Temple's coach. There's nothing about his personality or his playing style that screams Texas, which makes Baylor an interesting job for him.
It underscores the question facing successful Group of 5 coaches like Rhule, Western Michigan's P.J. Fleck and South Florida's Willie Taggart: When Power 5 opportunities present themselves, should they always jump at them?
There are obvious moves for Group of 5 coaches, like Houston's Tom Herman going to Texas, or Taggart going to Oregon. Baylor has appealing qualities, especially top-notch facilities and strong financial resources, but there are unique challenges after the sexual assault scandal and the rocky transition from former coach Art Briles. Rhule has to build a recruiting class literally from scratch in a new state where high school coaches are still kingmakers. It could easily be a three- or four-year rebuild for him.
This year is an abnormally quiet coaching cycle, so Rhule either could have taken Baylor or waited until 2017, when more Power 5 jobs are expected to open. He still would have been the guy who guided Temple to consecutive 10-win seasons and an AAC title.
There's risk, but industry sources think there's greater risk in staying put.
"The Power 5 is such a different environment with money and resources," a Group of 5 athletic director said. "You can never fault those coaches for making the move."
Even industry sources concerned about whether Rhule will succeed at Baylor acknowledged he likely had to take the job. One coaching agent said this always was the year Rhule needed to move, regardless of the number of Power 5 opportunities.
And as a Big 12 assistant noted, "There's no perfect fit at Baylor right now." So why can't a guy like Rhule, with proven success, get Baylor back on track?
Fleck, who guided Western Michigan to 13-0 and a berth in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, may not find a Power 5 landing spot this year. Oregon's hiring of Taggart fills the final Power 5 vacancy, and sources said Fleck wouldn't take another Group of 5 job like Cincinnati.
Fleck is a unique case for several reasons. Administrators say his approach, rooted in program branding -- everyone knows him as the "Row the Boat" guy -- only fits at certain programs and might not translate as well at the Power 5 level. Fleck also is very well compensated at Western Michigan, and his salary is expected be at or near the top of the Group of 5 if he returns in 2017.
Still, many believe if he doesn't leave Western Michigan, it's a mistake.
"He has to take something," a Power 5 administrator said.
Added a Power 5 coach: "When you're winning in the MAC, you've gotta go."
The coach pointed to former Bowling Green coach Gregg Brandon, who went 20-6 in his first two seasons but didn't jump to a bigger job and was fired four years later with an overall record of 44-30. There are other examples of once-promising Group of 5 coaches who stayed and faded.
Fleck likely has enough recognition to remain relevant in the job market next year, even if his team, which loses several standout seniors, only goes 9-3 or 8-4. While Fleck flirted with Oregon, with his ties to the Midwest he would make the most sense at schools in the Midwest or Mid-South, especially since his children live in the St. Louis area.
But staying put in the Group of 5 can prove costly, literally and figuratively. It's why Fleck's situation will be so interesting to track going forward.
Around the coaching carousel
Houston could be land of Lincoln: Houston isn't in a major rush to name its next coach and might not make a hire until this weekend or early next week. The school has several coaches out recruiting and doesn't feel pressured to make a hire before the quiet period begins next Monday. The industry talk has centered on Oklahoma offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley, who wowed Houston during his interview. The 33-year-old Riley is extremely sharp and comes across older than he looks. The possible concern for Houston is that Riley, like predecessor Tom Herman, could look to jump to the Power 5 in the next few years. Although Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and former LSU coach Les Miles have interviewed, Riley is generating the most buzz.
USF could target Lane Kiffin: If Kiffin doesn't land in Houston, he will be the top target for South Florida, a move that makes complete sense for both sides. As reported here several weeks ago, Kiffin has long targeted the USF job because of his ties to Tampa, where his father, Monte, served as Buccaneers defensive coordinator from 1996 to 2008. This always was going to be the final season for Kiffin, with Nick Saban at Alabama -- the arrangement has run its course for both sides -- and Kiffin understood his next head-coaching stop likely would not come at the Power 5 level. After expressing interest in UCF last year but receiving no real reciprocation, Kiffin should be in a better position to land USF. If not, he likely will rejoin Ed Orgeron as LSU's offensive coordinator. Former Texas coach Charlie Strong, who has extensive recruiting ties in the Sunshine State, also could be in the mix at South Florida. Washington co-defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake, who has had two different stints as a Tampa Bay Bucs coach, is also a possible candidate for South Florida. And add Greg Schiano, who is Ohio State's associate head coach/defensive coordinator but was the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2012-13, to the list of candidates.
Gundy musings: The Mike Gundy-Baylor rumors that surfaced Monday might have been annoying for some, including more realistic candidates and their agents. But in a way, it was nice to see Gundy's name generating attention. Gundy seemed like a strong candidate for LSU and possibly Oregon, and industry sources believe this is a good time for him to leave his alma mater. But things have been surprisingly quiet around the Mulleted One, despite a 9-3 regular-season record and a chance for his third 10-win season in the past four years.
Coordinator carousel: Three of the more fascinating coordinator hires will come at LSU, Notre Dame and Ole Miss. If Orgeron can't land Kiffin, it's imperative he bring in a similarly qualified quarterback developer for LSU. Could Houston's Major Applewhite, a Baton Rouge native, get a look for the Tigers? Steve Ensminger will remain on staff, but not in a coordinator role. At Notre Dame, the future of coach Brian Kelly likely hinges on his defensive coordinator hire. Kelly recently said the coordinator will be able to hire the defensive staff. Most of the early buzz centers on Wake Forest's Mike Elko, a longtime Dave Clawson aide who seems ready for a big jump. At Ole Miss, keep an eye on Auburn co-defensive coordinator Wesley McGriff as a possible replacement for retiring defensive coordinator Dave Wommack.
What's next for Temple? Matt Rhule leaves Temple in good shape, and the school should receive strong interest in its vacancy. Expect several Penn State assistants to be considered, including assistant head coach Terry Smith, who coached Temple's wide receivers in 2013 and previously was a high school coach in the Pittsburgh area. Tennessee Tech coach Marcus Satterfield, who served as Temple's offensive coordinator from 2013 to 2015, also could be a candidate. Another good choice would be Old Dominion coach Bobby Wilder, a Maine native who has recruited the Philadelphia/South New Jersey area for years.
Cincinnati, Florida Atlantic looking for offense: The searches for both Cincinnati and Florida Atlantic are heating up, and both schools are looking for coaches with offensive backgrounds, sources said. While both would prefer candidates with head-coaching experience, Florida Atlantic will hire a strong coordinator candidate, especially since it has salary limitations (around $600,000). Ohio State quarterbacks coach Tim Beck could be an option for Florida Atlantic, while Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos might be in the running at Cincinnati.
Nevada down to three: Barring a late surprise, Nevada's next coach will be one of three candidates: Eastern Washington coach Beau Baldwin, Vanderbilt offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig or Arizona State wide receivers coach Jay Norvell. A decision could come by Friday, a source said. Former Nevada coach Chris Ault, who had three stints leading the Wolfpack, is extremely involved in the search, sources said. Any coach Nevada hires will have Ault's blessing.