"If every Power 5 job in America opened tomorrow ..."
Which would be most desirable? Which would have the least appeal?
That is again the hypothetical question we're posing in our second annual attempt to rank the Power 5 head coaching jobs, from worst to best. There's a new top job this year; Texas, last year's No. 1, has been bumped.
We've broken down the jobs into five categories, using the expectations for the program as it stands today as a general guideline for the groupings. I enlisted the help of four ESPN college football reporters -- Chris Low, Ryan McGee, Adam Rittenberg and Mark Schlabach -- to settle on the rankings, considering criteria such as location, recruiting base, budgets and administrative stability. Thoughts from coaches, agents and administrators were then solicited for feedback on the rankings.
On Monday, we started with the bottom tier and the 10 worst jobs. On Tuesday, we continued with the jobs ranked Nos. 55-46.
The countdown continues today with jobs 45-31.
Tier 3: Building toward a league title run every few years is an attainable -- if not expected -- goal
45. Texas Tech, Big 12
Current head coach: Kliff Kingsbury (fourth year)
2015 rank: 45 (tie) | 2015 record: 7-6
Considering where it is located, it's something of a compliment where Texas Tech has landed in each of the first two years of these rankings. Lubbock is a perfectly nice town once you're there, but it is the most isolated major college city in America. The campus is nearly five hours from the nearest major city, Dallas.
The challenge: Where that hurts Tech most is in the number of unofficial visits it gets from recruits, as compared to Texas, Texas A&M or schools far closer to the state's population core. The current staff has all but given up on fighting with the Longhorns and Aggies for recruits, but the rise of Baylor, TCU and now Houston has done Tech's talent level no favors. Ideally, a staff would be strong developers in this job because it cannot count on anything close to elite-level recruiting.
The bright side: Fan support is excellent; it's definitely the only game in town. AD Kirby Hocutt is a respected up-and-comer, as evidenced by his quick rise to become the College Football Playoff selection committee chairman. He is sensitive to both the needs of coaches and athletes. Those at Tech are already wondering how much longer it'll be able to keep him. Work is ongoing at Jones AT&T Stadium, which is perfectly serviceable and very loud. An indoor facility, much-needed because of the ever-changing West Texas weather, is on the way.
44. California, Pac-12
Current head coach: Sonny Dykes (fourth year)
2015 rank: 42 | 2015 record: 8-5
When Sonny Dykes took the Cal job in 2013, he told Insider that he was seeking a place just like Berkeley: where, unlike the South, the culture was not so football-obsessed. He was correct, but he has found the flip side with that argument.
The challenge: Pressure is lower, sure; Dykes isn't receiving death threats for losing games, something he half-jokingly said deterred him from interest in an SEC job. But the commitment level is lower, as well. You have to fight to get resources, fight to figure out what the admissions standard is. Things that are rubber-stamped at many places become teeth-pulling, time-consuming exercises. Coaches aren't interested in those headaches. There are enough inside the football building. The school went more than a year without a permanent AD, eventually promoting interim Michael Williams to the post before this season. Other coaches have taken note of Dykes' gripes about the way this hire was handled. Does Cal's leadership have a desire to be a competitive Pac-12 team, or is it content in the middle of the pack?
The bright side: Commitment cannot totally be questioned after a $320 million rebuild of Memorial Stadium. It's a beautiful facility. The Bay Area is one of the most attractive places in the country to live, even if it's prohibitively expensive. It also produces a good deal of high-end college talent, though not as much as the southern part of the state. There's some recent history of success, but perhaps more importantly, there's a tradition of quarterback development. Jared Goff figures to become the program's next first-rounder, following Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Boller. Skill players such as Marshawn Lynch and DeSean Jackson have also gone on to NFL success, further resonating with recruits.
43. Georgia Tech, ACC
Current head coach: Paul Johnson (ninth year)
2015 rank: 41 | 2015 record: 3-9
Being in recruit-rich Georgia ... good. Being a university with more rigorous admissions standards in recruit-rich Georgia ... not as good. Georgia Tech is proof that location, as important as it can be in these rankings, isn't everything. Forced with a choice between the state's top two jobs, there would not be much of a choice at all.
The challenge: The academic standard makes it difficult for Tech to take advantage of being in the middle of one of the best recruiting cities in the entire country. But it's also one of the more competitive recruiting cities. It isn't a good sign if Duke, as mentioned earlier, is signing ESPN 300-level talent from the Atlanta metro area. The facilities are middle of the road in the conference, though the skyline behind Bobby Dodd Stadium provides one of the more picturesque urban settings in the country.
The bright side: As noted with other ACC Coastal teams, the division is there for the taking, and Georgia Tech has taken it four times since Paul Johnson's arrival in 2008. Coaches are curious what would happen if the school one day hired a coach who runs a spread-type offensive system. They say surely there are enough academically qualified recruits in the state and region who would be interested in playing in that style in the middle of a major metro market.
42. Utah, Pac-12
Current head coach: Kyle Whittingham (12th year)
2015 rank: 47 | 2015 record: 10-3
Compared to others, such as TCU and Louisville, Utah's move to the Power 5 level remains an under-the-radar success story. Kyle Whittingham has won 19 games the past two seasons, and the Utes have developed a physical identity that has served them well in the Pac-12. Any coach hypothetically coming in would be wise to heed the lessons offered by Whittingham's staff.
The challenge: The style of play is Utah's way to offset its talent deficiency, compared to the California-based schools and the ones who recruit better -- and faster -- players from the state. Whittingham has repeatedly told Insider that team speed, especially at the skill positions, has been the gap between the Utes and the rest of the league. He believes that gap is closing, and last year's 10-win season would seem to reinforce that assertion.
The bright side: Corresponding with the move to a power conference, financial commitment is trending up. A $32 million football facility was completed in 2013, and Whittingham - despite some tension with the school's administrators -- has received extensions each of the past two years. Coaches say Whittingham bumped heads with his bosses because he was laboring to get the support that is now coming at a gradual flow. He has made progress in that area, and they say that's why he's still there. In theory, the next coach would not have to fight those battles as vigorously.
41. Pittsburgh, ACC
Current head coach: Pat Narduzzi (second year)
2015 rank: 43 | 2015 record: 8-5
The ACC move was excellent for the school. Pitt was able to get into a Power 5 league, and one in which it could be competitive almost immediately. That hasn't been the case with the majority of newcomers to the sport's top tier.
The challenge: Of all the schools in these rankings, Pitt would not appreciate this exercise of replacing every coach in America, because it's particularly tired of replacing coaches. It would like to keep its current guy, Pat Narduzzi, for a while after quick stays by Todd Graham (one season) and Paul Chryst (three seasons). Narduzzi is only one year into his tenure, but he has said that he understands the need for stability. That idea extends also to the school's administration, which is also settling into place. Scott Barnes, widely respected by peers, was named AD in April.
The bright side: The state of Pennsylvania has historically been a strong producer of high school talent, as has neighboring Ohio. Being in the ACC should help further Pitt's visibility with high school programs and recruits. Partnering with the NFL's Steelers has provided for a nice facility share at Heinz Field. Chryst always said it was something he enjoyed, being near a winning franchise. That said, it's a die-hard pro sports town and the Panthers take a backseat to the major sports.
40. Missouri, SEC
Current head coach: Barry Odom (first year)
2015 rank: 34 | 2015 record: 5-7
Those in the SEC, especially the conference's East Division, say they still have to remind themselves that Missouri is part of the league. This will be its fifth season in the league. And it has twice won the division title. Why does its inclusion still fail to widely resonate? More than anything, it's simple geography. The closest drive to a divisional opponent, Vanderbilt, is six hours and the average distance to the six SEC East schools is 686 miles. The other conferences had already become sprawling, but the SEC had previously been pretty tightly confined.
The challenge: That distance is important to note in terms of recruiting. Since the move from the Big 12, Missouri has been leaning hard on in-state talent and the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas. That isn't a prudent formula for keeping up with the rest of the SEC's recruiting efforts, putting a great deal of pressure on the staff to develop mid-level talent. Gary Pinkel proved adept at that, but he's gone, as is standout defensive line coach Craig Kuligowski, perhaps as important to the Tigers' success as any component. Those close to the program have noted that the administrative infrastructure was "kind of a mess" when AD Mack Rhoades took over a year ago. They say he has worked to streamline and reorganize the department.
The bright side: The state and area don't produce talent in quantity, but there has been some quality in recent years. The latest example is defensive tackle Terry Beckner Jr., the No. 2 overall prospect in the 2015 class who is on his way to becoming an SEC star. It's imperative that Missouri signs those elite regional kids when they do emerge. While the geography has made for a somewhat uncomfortable fit in the SEC East, coaches agree that Missouri would have had a difficult time competitively acclimating to the West Division. Being in the East has given it a chance.
39. NC State, ACC
Current head coach: Dave Doeren (third year)
2015 rank: 40 | 2015 record: 7-6
This is presently the highest-pressure job in the state, because it's the school with the most football ambition. Dave Doeren has won eight and seven games the past two seasons, but that has him gravitating toward the hot seat. After all, Tom O'Brien was fired after winning an average of eight games in his final three seasons.
The challenge: The program, despite potential and spending, has never been more than slightly above average. Since 1998, it has been to 12 bowl games. That's pretty solid, pretty steady, right? But here are those bowls: Belk (twice), St. Petersburg, Music City, Champs Sports, Papa John's, Meineke Car Care, Tangerine (twice), Gator, Micron PC (twice). Not exactly the top tier of postseason play. There has been a defined ceiling for the program, much to the consternation of supporters.
The bright side: The ceiling shouldn't be so defined. That's the continual refrain from donors and administrators, who moved to fire O'Brien despite a plus-.500 record. The school was ahead of the ACC's curve with stadium and facilities upgrades in the early 2000s, and it is still building (it opened an indoor structure last year). It's in an area in the state where the largest concentration of recruits can be found in an underrated state for high school football. There are some ingredients to think that NC State, if it had an aggressive staff of recruiters, could evolve into a top-tier ACC job. The Pack should never be taking a backseat in the division to Duke or North Carolina, which have an eye more insistently trained on hoops.
37 (tie). West Virginia, Big 12
Current head coach: Dana Holgorsen (sixth year)
2015 rank: 39 | 2015 record: 8-5
West Virginia is in the process of establishing its level of expectation now that it has moved up to a power league. Dana Holgorsen's teams have averaged 6.5 wins per season since entering the Big 12 in 2012, and that has left his long-term future at the school in doubt. Reports surfaced in early December that some heavy hitters want him out.
The challenge: Some coaches wonder if it's fair for the school's decision-makers to expect anything more than 6-8 wins a year now that it's in the Big 12. In a league that heavily mines the state of Texas for talent, Texans are never going to be the core of a West Virginia recruiting class. The campus is just too far removed from the minds of those recruits. That means the staff has to excel in other regions, such as New Jersey and Florida, to remain competitive in the conference. It has proven to be tricky so far, and it may never be a sustainable model. That has to be a concern for anyone considering this job. It's a total outlier in the Big 12 footprint.
The bright side: Purely in terms of fan support and passion, West Virginia would be much closer to the top. Milan Puskar Stadium is a vibrant and wild game-day atmosphere, and $100 million will be pumped into renovations in the next two years. So the commitment to football is strong, which a staff always appreciates. The resources are available. The school's admissions standard is also not nearly as stringent as some other contenders in the conference.
37 (tie). Arizona, Pac-12
Current head coach: Rich Rodriguez (fifth year)
2015 rank: 37 | 2015 record: 7-6
Coaches and agents told Insider last fall that Rich Rodriguez, who is 33-20 since taking over in 2012, was looking for an escape hatch. He interviewed at South Carolina and had interest in other openings at Miami and Virginia Tech. All those jobs are ranked somewhat higher in our rankings, but why was he itching so badly to get out?
The challenge: The difficulty of the Arizona job was the main reason, those close to the program said. Rich Rod had just taken the Wildcats to the Pac-12 title game and a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2014. He understood that was likely the ceiling. It was a good time to move on. But he didn't get another job. He's still there. So it'll be interesting to see if those concerns -- particularly not being able to recruit at a high enough level to stay competitive in the deep Pac-12 South -- come to fruition. That's the situation a new staff would enter, as well. As with many of the schools in this tier, it is not a bad place to work, but it's a tough place to work.
The bright side: Coaches and peers perceive that working for AD Greg Byrne would be a good experience. He has done quite a bit to lift the school's profile, particularly in terms of facilities. Commitment is as strong as it has ever been. It makes winning big possible, even if it's difficult to do so regularly.
36. Mississippi State, SEC
Current head coach: Dan Mullen (ninth year)
2015 rank: 34 (tie) | 2015 record: 9-4
It's fitting that Zona and Mississippi State are ranked in succession because Dan Mullen's recent tale is similar to Rich Rod's. Despite its place in the rough-and-tumble SEC West, Mullen's Bulldogs won 10 games and went to the Orange Bowl in 2014. They were even ranked No. 1 in the country for a stretch during the season. Getting to that level was a feat for Mullen, but staying there for the long haul is a near-impossibility given the cutthroat nature of the competition.
The challenge: Many folks working in college football feel as if Starkville is the worst college town in the SEC. It is a tough draw for most high-end prospects, though note that the staff has added 10 ESPN 300 recruits in the past two years. On top of everything else working against its recruiting efforts, in-state rival Ole Miss has taken off under Hugh Freeze. Mullen acknowledges that the staff's player-development component has to be outstanding for Mississippi State to win in the SEC West, and that's how MSU excelled in 2014. Mining the juco ranks for game-ready talent has also been vital. Any coach arriving would be wise to adopt a similar philosophy, understanding that building toward a 9-11-win season every three or four seasons is a reasonable goal. Winning that many games every year is not, and that's why Mullen was interested in other jobs. Like Rodriguez, however, he's still in place.
The bright side: Thanks to unprecedented levels of support from the school's administration, notably including affable AD Scott Stricklin, Mississippi State has done great work in closing the gap to the SEC West schools with more tradition and money. The 2-year-old football facility might be the most functional in the entire country. The stadium received a much-needed $75 million facelift around the same time. Mullen makes more than $4 million, which would have been a laughable thought even a few years back. MSU might be at a disadvantage, but it's still punching back.
35. North Carolina, ACC
Current head coach: Larry Fedora (fifth year)
2015 rank: 36 | 2015 record: 11-3
Larry Fedora just took the Tar Heels to the ACC title game, where it pushed eventual national runner-up Clemson for three-plus quarters. It was an important moment for a program that coaches and agents had felt was underachieving for a long stretch. The 2015 season marked UNC's first 10-plus-win season since Mack Brown's final year (1997). The basketball team gets a great deal of attention, but, as with some of the other "hoops schools" that keeps expectation for football more reasonable. And it creates overall brand awareness with high school athletes.
The challenge: There still has not been resolution in the NCAA's investigation of academic impropriety at UNC. Fedora said the looming cloud didn't hurt recruiting in 2016 as much as past years, but the uncertainty would affect coaches' interest in the job. Kenan Memorial Stadium and the program's facilities are good but not outstanding. An indoor structure will be built in the next couple of years, but the Tar Heels are already behind the likes of in-state rivals Duke and NC State.
The bright side: Chapel Hill is one of the most beautiful college towns in the country, and, as mentioned with NC State, the area produces a good amount of prospects. The division changes hands every year, but history and resources would indicate that the Heels, along with probably Virginia Tech, have the best chance to put together a run similar to what FSU and Clemson have recently done on the Atlantic side.
34. Arizona State, Pac-12
Current head coach: Todd Graham (fifth year)
2015 rank: 27 | 2015 record: 6-7
We will not call him out by name, but one of our panelists initially omitted Arizona State, which slipped seven spots from a year ago. He later joked that it was because the Sun Devils had such a forgettable year in 2015. The 6-7 dud of a season came out of nowhere; coach Todd Graham had relentlessly hyped the team all summer.
The challenge: No matter how well Arizona State recruits Southern California, it's still taking a number behind USC. In recent years, UCLA and Oregon have further cut into the Devils' slice of the pie there. So then the ASU coaching staff is then asked to beat the Trojans (and others) with some of the same recruits on which it passed. It can happen, but it requires a trained eye in evaluations, and a reliance on juco talent in both Arizona and California.
The bright side: The Phoenix area produces a good amount of prospects, but ASU still gets the bulk of its high-end recruits from the L.A. metro area. Graham's background in Texas has opened some doors there, as well. Bottom line: There is talent nearby, and Graham has shown it can be lured to Tempe. Sun Devil Stadium and the team's facility in the south end zone are seeing significant changes as part of a $256 million renovation. The entire project, being rolled out in phases, is slated for completion next year.
33. Iowa, Big Ten
Current head coach: Kirk Ferentz (18th year)
2015 rank: 38 | 2015 record: 12-2
Kirk Ferentz has said several times during his tenure that he sees Iowa as college football's Pittsburgh Steelers. Beyond the colors, and perhaps steady administrative leadership, it doesn't feel like an apt comparison. In particular, there's the disparity in Super Bowl rings to national titles. Whether it fits or not, it does give you an idea as to what Ferentz thinks about the gig he has held since 1999.
The challenge: Like its in-state rival in Ames, Iowa deals with a recruiting disadvantage due to location. Even coming off last season's Rose Bowl appearance, the staff didn't sign a single ESPN 300 -- or even a four-star -- player in the 2016 class. As we've noted with several programs in this tier, when you're a relying on development, it's more difficult to maintain sustainable success. Ferentz's career has entailed plenty of those expected ebbs and flows. He has had six seasons of seven or fewer wins in the past 11 years, something that has at times pushed him toward the hot seat.
The bright side: The good news about sustainability, at least compared to schools such as Arizona and Mississippi State, is relative competition. If the 2015 Iowa team were in the Pac-12 South or the SEC West, it's highly unlikely that it would have been a division champ and in a New Year's Six game. But the Big Ten West has been so disparate to the East that the conference is likely to reshuffle the teams in the not-too-distant future. Coaches in the region say Iowa's facilities are underrated, especially after the recent addition of a $55 million football building. Everything has a fresh, modern feel, they say. Institutional support has been traditionally strong at Iowa, and one area that manifests itself in is patience. What's amazing in this climate is that Iowa has had just two coaches since 1978. The only other program to hold that distinction is FSU, and that's largely based on one lengthy career.
32. Louisville, ACC
Current head coach: Bobby Petrino (third year)
2015 rank: 29 | 2015 record: 8-5
Various leaders in the Big 12 have expressed regret that the league didn't add Louisville when it had the chance in 2012. Seeing the Cardinals' success in several sports has fueled that sentiment. And after averaging 10 wins the past four seasons, football's ceiling stands to go even higher now that the program is in a power league. A playoff bid is now possible.
The challenge: The 23-man recruiting class in 2016 featured just three in-state players, but Bobby Petrino managed to sign six four-star prospects from six different states. Kentucky produces some talent, but this is an indication of the way a staff has to recruit: regionally, aggressively and creatively. Petrino's staff is leaning harder on Georgia (eight in this class). Charlie Strong's staff mined South Florida, and it eventually yielded about a dozen NFL draft picks. With eight and nine wins since making the move to the ACC, Louisville has fared well. But climbing over FSU and Clemson in the Atlantic Division is going to prove very difficult. Take the coming season. Louisville has the returning talent to be a surprise team, but FSU and Clemson are likely to be preseason top-five teams.
The bright side: With facilities sponsored by major local brands Papa John's and KFC, there's plenty of financial support for the athletic department. The conference change prompted the start of a $55 million upgrade for the stadium and that's after $70 million was spent on it in 2010. AD Tom Jurich has made undoubtedly bold hires and is known as a forward-thinking leader in the field.
31. South Carolina, SEC
Current head coach: Will Muschamp (first year)
2015 rank: 19 | 2015 record: 3-9
The Gamecocks experienced one of the most precipitous drops from last year's rankings, largely because we were able to see how the job was perceived following Steve Spurrier's resignation. The answer from those in college football was "good, not great." Skepticism ensued when the school eventually settled on Will Muschamp, whose only head-coaching experience ended in failure at another SEC East school, Florida.
The challenge: Coaches feel as if the state is not large or populous enough to regularly stock one major program with talent, let alone two (including Clemson). Muschamp told Insider this week, however, that he has a different view: He believes it's an under-recruited and undercovered state from a media standpoint, meaning there are high school gems that go widely unnoticed. He said he noticed there are six or seven Atlanta Falcons from the state. One went to Clemson, he said, and zero went to South Carolina. "But there was a Coastal Carolina ... a Catawba ... UAB ..." Muschamp told Insider. "So they're here. We've just got to find them. And when there is a stud recruit, we've got to sign them." An SEC coach responded that Muschamp may be thinking somewhat optimistically. "Roddy White is from South Carolina and went to UAB because he wasn't getting into South Carolina," he told Insider. He also said a South Carolina offer to an off-radar kid will tip off other schools to look further into a prospect; it's not as if the Gamecocks can keep their shortlist all that secretive. Muschamp's forte has proven to be recruiting exceptionally well. Even if his vision is correct, it still puts an added emphasis on a staff's ability to develop. That's always going to be the reality at South Carolina, even in a best-case scenario.
The bright side: The previous AD, Eric Hyman, did well in raising money to completely revitalize the school's facilities. The area surrounding the football stadium has gone from industrial wasteland to an aesthetically pleasing game-day environment. A new indoor facility and practice fields are adjacent to that tailgate area, and Muschamp was giddy about the idea of a $50 million complex on the way in the next year or two. As it is currently, the coaches' offices are on the opposite end of the stadium from the locker room, weight room and training areas. It isn't ideal, nor is the fact that the actual campus is two miles away. Coaches like the idea of working for a former coach, a growing rarity in administration, and AD Ray Tanner earns plenty of respect as a two-time winner of the College World Series.