Alabama and Clemson will meet Monday night in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, with each coming off impressive defensive performances in the semifinals.
Clemson pitched a second-half shutout against quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Oklahoma Sooners' potent offense in the Capital One Orange Bowl, allowing only 59 yards in the first four possessions after halftime while opening up a big lead. Alabama was even more dominant in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, keeping the Michigan State Spartans off the scoreboard entirely and out of scoring range for nearly the entire game. The Spartans ran only one play in the red zone all night against Alabama, which ended in a Connor Cook interception just before halftime.
Both teams' defenses feature physical players up front who have wreaked havoc and have forced opponents off the field in a hurry. In fact, Alabama and Clemson are the two best defenses in forcing opponent three-and-outs (or worse). The Crimson Tide have allowed a first down on only 57 percent of opponent non-garbage possessions, and the Tigers were almost as dominant (59 percent).
What impact will this defensive statistical matchup have on the outcome of the game?
Defenses pride themselves on generating three-and-outs, and they often set up offensive success on the ensuing possession. In the Cotton Bowl, Michigan State's offense was forced off the field on a three-and-out on five possessions, and Alabama capitalized with scores after four of those possessions. The first three-and-out came in the first half and was followed up with an Alabama field goal. An MSU three-and-out in the third quarter was immediately followed by Cyrus Jones' 57-yard punt return touchdown, and Alabama's final two touchdown drives of the game followed two other Michigan State three-and-outs.
In non-garbage time in the Orange Bowl, Clemson forced a three-and-out on three occasions. The Tigers followed the first with a field goal drive to get their first points of the game, the second led to a missed field goal, and the third preceded Clemson's final touchdown drive of the game. Though Clemson capitalized on only two of the three situations, those three-and-outs led to Clemson's three best starting field positions of the game.
Capitalizing on three-and-outs played a big role in important victories for each team earlier in the season. Clemson allowed at least one first down on all but four possessions against Florida State -- and the Tigers scored 20 of their 23 points in that game on their ensuing possession after those four stops of FSU (two field goals and two touchdowns). On the same day, Alabama scored 24 of its 30 points against LSU on its next possession following four of the five three-and-outs it forced against the Tigers.
Forcing three-and-outs could be a huge factor in the outcome of the championship game, but history doesn't suggest that we can count on a defensive slugfest in the game. Just because Alabama and Clemson have been fueled by success in forcing three-and-outs over the course of the season doesn't guarantee they'll be able to replicate that success again.
In the past five years, there have been a total of five games played in which both defenses in the game ranked among the top five teams in the nation in forcing three-and-outs during that season. On average, the teams in those games scored 30 points, much higher than would be expected from a defensive battle.
Clemson played in each of the last three games featuring teams ranked in the top five nationally in forcing three-and-outs -- 2013, 2014, and 2015 (the Orange Bowl matchup with Oklahoma, which ranked fourth nationally in forcing three-and-outs). The other two games were Clemson's 23-17 victory over Louisville last season, and its 51-14 blowout loss to Florida State in the Seminoles' 2013 championship run.
Clemson forced only one three-and-out against the Seminoles in that 2013 defeat and wasn't able to capitalize on the ensuing drive, a sequence that helped FSU seize control of the game and open up a multiple-score lead before halftime. Similarly, Oklahoma was able to force only one three-and-out against Clemson in last week's Orange Bowl, and only after the Tigers had already opened up a 30-17 lead. The Tigers' offense was exceptionally successful in generating first downs in the game -- their first nine possessions lasted an average of eight plays each and all but one earned at least two first downs.
Alabama's defense presents a challenge on another level for Clemson, but Deshaun Watson's ability to make plays with his arm and his mobility will give the Tigers ample opportunity to avoid three-and-outs and capitalize on defensive stops of their own.
Whichever team can avoid three-and-outs on offense might be even more important than forcing them on defense. And as has been the case in recent seasons, a combination of those situations could blow the game wide open.